7-18-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

livewebpicks

Angels-seattle over 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks

Carson K

Not a big fan of taking favorites. I just don't like Dan Haren on the road and I can see the Dodgers falling apart a little bit in the 2nd half. Lance Lynn seems to pitch well at home, so -124 really doesn't seem to steep to me. I think Lance makes up for his last trip out to LA and gets the win at home friday nt. Now it's time to start packing and head to the beach!!!!!!

Cardinals -124

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Predicting The Second Half of 2014 MLB Season
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews

LAS VEGAS -- The first half of the baseball season has given us plenty to be excited about as we have some new blood mixed in with perennial powers building the playoff landscape. Will the Tigers run away with the AL Central? Do the Brewers have enough to hang on in the tough NL Central? Can the Giants regroup? How about the Angels with the second best record in baseball yet sitting in second place?

The LVH SuperBook has been updating its odds to win each division all season long, so let's take a look at where they've moved since March and who looks to have the best chance of cashing.

NL EAST DIVISION

NATIONALS 5-9 (opened 1-2)
BRAVES 3-2 (2-1)
PHILLIES 100-1 (15-1)
METS 50-1 (20-1)
MARLINS 60-1 (25-1)

LM Outlook: The Nationals and Braves start out with a fresh slate and the second half begins a new season as both are tied for the division lead. The Nationals were supposed to be right where they are, while the Braves have surprised somewhat. The big upside here for the Nationals has been their MLB-leading 3.08 team ERA, and the possibility that one of the game's brightest stars, Bryce Harper, will give them some offensive production.

After missing all of May and June, Harper has hit just .135 in July. The good news is that he did hit his second homer of the season on the weekend prior to the All-Star break. The bad news is that he's pressing too much and has struck out 16 times in 37 July at-bats. The fact that the Nats have done all this without his contributions is pretty remarkable. Look for a better Harper -- can't be much worse -- and for the Nationals to win the division.

NL CENTRAL DIVISION

CARDINALS 11-10 (4-7)
REDS 7-2 (7-2)
PIRATES 11-2 (9-2)
BREWERS 5-2 (12-1)
CUBS 1000-1 (35-1)

LM Outlook: This battle is even better than last season's NL Central race because the Brewers have been added to the mix with Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. The Cardinals' pitching has been outstanding this season with 17 team shutouts, but the loss of Yadier Molina calling the games (expected out 8-12 weeks, thumb), along with his bat, is a major blow to the Cardinals, a team that can't afford to lose good bats. So if the Cardinals appear weaker, who can step up and win this thing?

Cincinnati has received good starting pitching, but hasn't been able to rely on Joey Votto or Brandon Phillips for their normal offensive support (both are hurt now, too). Over in Pittsburgh, they've been scrapping away to make up for a terrible first two months and are playing their preferred brand of ball right now. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has cooled considerably after a hot start, as the previously strong starting rotation has failed them of late. The Cardinals are still the class of the division, but taking a shot with Pittsburgh to win it at 11-to-2 odds wouldn't be a bad choice amid all the issues the other three teams have,

NL WEST DIVISION

DODGERS 2-5 (4-11)
GIANTS 2-1 (9-2)
DIAMONDBACKS 300-1 (12-1)
PADRES 300-1 (10-1)
ROCKIES 300-1 (15-1)

LM Outlook: The Dodgers have that look of running away like they did at the end of June last season, and while they still haven't received the type of hitting expected out of Hanley Ramirez (.275), Matt Kemp (8 HRs) or Adrian Gonzalez (.260), Yasiel Puig keeps doing his thing. Not to mention, the added element of Dee Gordon (43 stolen bases), along with unlikely contributions from the likes of Scott Van Slyke and Justin Turner has helped keep the Dodgers offense afloat.

But we all know the real reason for their rise to the top after San Francisco looked as though they would run away with the division. It's all pitching. Any team that can roll out a rotation headed by Clayton Kershaw (1.78 ERA), Zack Greinke (2.73), Hyun-Jin Ryu (10-5), and a reborn Josh Beckett (2.26 ERA) will be hard to beat, and it's the reason they're considered World Series favorites with Detroit and Oakland at 9-to-2. If those four starters continue to perform at this level, the Dodgers would be favored in every series during the playoffs with possibly a pick 'em in the World Series, where the AL will now have home-field edge because of Tuesday night's All-Star Game result.

As for the Giants, it's obvious they are a much better club offensively with Brandon Belt in the lineup, but the rotation hasn't been as effective lately with even their most consistent starter, Tim Hudson, looking very vulnerable. The bullpen has lots of issues as well with Sergio Romo in a major funk. He lost his closer role to Santiago Casilla. They still have a second wind in them, though, and should be fighting for a wild card.

AL EAST DIVISION

RED SOX 15-1 (2-1)
RAYS 15-1 (2-1)
YANKEES 3 (5-2)
ORIOLES 11-10 (8-1)
BLUE JAYS 12-5 (12-1)

LM Outlook: It's been since 1997 that the Orioles have won the division and 1993 since the Blue Jays won the division (they also won the World Series that season). All the other teams that won during what is essentially the Derek Jeter era -- the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox -- find themselves third through fifth, respectively. And while it would be nice to see some fresh blood win it, the division race has a feel of not being anywhere close to over.

Baltimore pitching has been good, but their staff has the look of one that could get into a major funk. Mark Buehrle has cooled off for Toronto and Edwin Encarnacion (26 homers and 70 RBI) is sidelined for another two weeks. So while the old guard of the division is down for now, it wouldn't be a surprise to see either current last place team -- Tampa Bay and Boston -- make up 9.5 games.

Betting on it is another story. The Yankees don't have any sense of urgency in Jeter's last season to improve their starting rotation and Boston appears worn out. The Rays could be a team that gets themselves fired up and back into this thing, but the safer bet seems to be on Baltimore.

AL CENTRAL DIVISION

TIGERS 1-7 (4-11)
INDIANS 7-1 (6-1)
ROYALS 7-1 (9-2)
WHITE SOX 100-1 (15-1)
TWINS 100-1 (35-1)

LM Outlook: So should we just skip this one? The Tigers' starting rotation alone makes them appear to be a cinch for the division, even though they have only a 6.5-game lead over Kansas City and 7.5 over Cleveland. The Royals had that impressive 10-game win streak in June, but quickly shot themselves in the foot after briefly taking over first place. There are too many well-placed components to the Tigers' success that makes them able to withstand the type of injuries that might cripple other teams.

AL WEST DIVISION

A'S 2-3 (9-5)
RANGERS 5000-1 (2-1)
ANGELS 6-5 (9-5)
MARINERS 15-1 (10-1)
ASTROS 5000-1 (100-1)

LM Outlook: This is going to be fun to watch down the stretch. The two best records in baseball and surprisingly, the LVH isn't making the A's too big of a favorite even with the starting pitching they acquired from the Cubs. The A's have a 1.5-game lead, but can't shake the Angels who come strong with the bats and pitching every night. This team is loaded, and while everything has come together offensively with their high-priced free agents playing well, it's been the gritty guys like Kole Calhoun, Collin Cowgill and C.J. Cron chipping in with big contributions. Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar are quietly having their best year together. And then there is Mike Trout.

Aside from all that, the biggest key that has taken the Angels to that next level of competing for the division and beyond has been the emergence of Garrett Richards (11-2, 2.55 ERA, 127 K), who is dominating.

The A's are finally considered an elite team and not just one of those from the 'Moneyball' era that will be pesky for New York or Boston to deal with in the playoffs. However, this Angels run is gaining some steam and the whole NorCal-SoCal thing is going to be fun to watch. These two teams will play all over the place against other squads until finally hooking up for seven key games in late August. Oakland is more stable, but Los Angeles appears to have more upside. Have we seen their best, or is it yet to come? Let's go with the Angels to win the division.

Mid-season Predictions:

NL Division winners: Dodgers, Nationals, Pirates
NL Wild Card teams: Cardinals, Giants
NL Champion: Dodgers
AL Division winners: Angels, Tigers, Orioles
AL Wild Card teams: A's, Mariners
AL Champion: Angels
World Series Champions: Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT

***** Friday, 7/18/14 MLB Information *****

(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #16
The All-Star game is a wrap and as teams gear up for the unofficial second half of the season we take a look at the division odds for each team. The Detroit Tigers have the best odds to win their division (American League Central) at 1-7, while the tightest division race is in the National League Central where there are still four teams with realistic odds at the division title. Meanwhile the team with the majors best record, the Oakland Athletics, are 2-3 to win the American League West, with the Los Angeles Angels hot on their tails at 6-5.

Here is the complete list of division odds courtesy LV Superbook.

NL EAST DIVISION

•NATIONALS 5-9
•BRAVES 3-2
•METS 50/1
•MARLINS 60/1
•PHILLIES 100/1

NL CENTRAL DIVISION

•CARDINALS 11-10
•BREWERS 5-2
•REDS 7-2
•PIRATES 11-2
•CUBS 1000/1

NL WEST DIVISION

•DODGERS 2-5
•GIANTS 2/1
•DIAMONDBACKS 300/1
•PADRES 300/1
•ROCKIES 300/1

AL EAST DIVISION

•ORIOLES 11-10
•BLUE JAYS 12-5
•YANKEES 3/1
•RED SOX 15/1
•RAYS 15/1

AL CENTRAL DIVISION

•TIGERS 1-7
•INDIANS 7/1
•ROYALS 7/1
•WHITE SOX 100/1
•TWINS 100/1

AL WEST DIVISION

•ATHLETICS 2-3
•ANGELS 6-5
•MARINERS 15/1
•RANGERS 5000/1
•ASTROS 5000/1

Thursday's MLB Roundup
-- Matt Kemp isn’t asking the Dodgers to trade him. But he isn’t necessarily opposed to the idea, either. The outfielder’s agent, former major-league pitcher Dave Stewart, told FOX Sports on Wednesday that Kemp again wants to be an everyday center fielder, something that isn’t in his immediate future with the Dodgers. Kemp, 29, is again an intriguing figure as the July 31 non-waiver deadline approaches. Since May 2, he has raised his batting average from .205 to .269 and his OPS from .736 to .760. He also has started 40 of the Dodgers’ last 42 games in left field.

-- The Boston Red Sox released catcher A.J. Pierzynski on Wednesday after designating him for assignment last week. The team was unable to trade the 37-year-old, who hit .254 with four home runs and 31 RBIs in 72 games. Pierzynski signed by the Red Sox during the offseason to a one-year, $8.25 million contract. A two-time All-Star, Pierzynski played for the San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers.

-- Rangers veteran reliever Jason Frasor was traded to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for minor-league relief pitcher Spencer Patton. Frasor, 36, had a 3.34 ERA in 38 games with the Rangers, including 30 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. Royals infielder Jimmy Paredes was designated for assignment to clear space on the 40-man roster for Frasor and right-hander Louis Coleman was optioned to Omaha.

-- The White Sox claimed right-handed pitcher Raul Fernandez off waivers from the Colorado Rockies and assigned him to Class A Winston-Salem. Fernandez, 24, was 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA, seven saves and 20 strikeouts over 29 relief appearances in 27 innings this season with Class A Modesto in the Rockies organization. He converted seven of his eight save opportunities. Fernandez, a native of Boca Chica, Dominican Republic, spent the 2008 season as a catcher before being converted to a pitcher full-time in 2009. He was originally signed by Colorado as an international free agent on Nov. 13, 2007.

-- With Bud Selig's reign as MLB commissioner set to come to an end in January, one of the games most respected figures has let it be known he would be willing to replace him: Joe Torre. The 74-year-old told New York Daily News "If the owners feel I can help baseball, I'm willing to do whatever they want me to do. I'm certainly not lobbying for it, but I want to stay involved." Torre is a baseball lifer with an impressive resume, including nine All-Star appearances as a player to go along with four World Series titles as the manager of the New York Yankees. With no successor for Selig named, it's certainly an intriguing situation worth keeping a close eye on.

-- Derek Jeter's final All-Star appearance has helped boost television ratings for the game. The American League's 5-3 win Tuesday in Minneapolis averaged more than 11.3 million viewers on Fox, up from 11 million for last year's game at the Mets' Citi Field in New York. The rating was up 9 percent for the first full half-hour, when the retiring Yankees shortstop first stepped to the plate. The network said Wednesday that the 7.0 fast national rating was the highest since 2010. The 2012 edition set a record low with a 6.8. Ratings represent the percentage of homes with televisions tuned to a program.

Five Pitchers To Watch Over The Next 2½ Months
Editor’s Note: StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst James Vogel has been enjoying yet another very profitable baseball season with his Huge *5-Star Over/Under selections, being 43-17-3 (71.6%), +$8,325 for the year. In addition, he’s 35-11-2 (76.0%) since mid-May with his side releases, and considering he went on that historic 169-89-11 (65.5%), +$7,092 run last year from May 6 until the end of the season (Which was the best streak in the entire country), he’s only getting started! Why would you not invest in guaranteed profits?

Here we are once again at the All-Star break, mired somewhere in the middle of yet another crazy baseball season. It’s a strange time, isn’t it? For me personally, being someone who obsessively studies and follows this stuff literally every single day and night over the course of the six-month journey, it’s the only portion of the year where time seems to be frozen, as we all collectively wait for our favorite teams and players to return to action and resume the latest installment of America’s national pastime.

Through the first three-months-and-change of the campaign, we’ve already observed some pretty wild events and performances, while being in the midst of saying one of the most emotional goodbyes to any professional athlete in recent memory, but as hard as it is to believe, we still have another two-and-a-half months to go, and that doesn’t even include the always eventful playoff slate. With only a select amount of time left, you may be looking for starting pitchers -- my specialty, and what is really the nucleus for my annual success in over/under betting -- that are on the rise to ride consistently in gambling so with that being said, I present to you five up-and-coming Starting Pitchers (In alphabetical order), whom I’ve been tracking closely for awhile, and appear to be on the hinge of breaking out into something much bigger...

•Jake Arrieta - Chicago Cubs
By now, the secret is out about Jake Arrieta, but since I was one of the few on his bandwagon when he first became a Cub last year following a once-thought-to-be meaningless acquisition, I will gladly take this opportunity to revel in it, given how hard he had fallen in Baltimore. After beginning the year on the DL, Arrieta finally arrived to the big league rotation in the beginning of May, when he actually defeated longtime Cubs nemesis Adam Wainwright, and since then, has pitched masterfully. In fact, he’s been so good that despite missing the first month of the season, he was drawing some serious All-Star consideration, something that once seemed unfathomable for a guy who struggled mightily for years while not showing many signs of hope as an Oriole.

Arrieta has transformed himself into a legitimate upper-rotation pitcher, carrying a 5-1 record, 1.95 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP into the second half of the season, but the most impressive stat of all, however, might be his K:BB ratio, which sits at a very impressive 85:22 mark in 78 innings of work. From a betting standpoint, Arrieta has been an unders machine, producing a 7-3-3 record in favor of under bets (I’m actually 5-0-2 with his unders this year), even while regularly drawing low lines. I said it early on in the year when Arrieta first made his return and I’ll say it again: This is someone that could very well be the Cubs’ Opening Day starter in 2015. I actually really like the Cubs next season and am seriously eyeing their Over Win Total as my best bet for ’15 (I said the same thing about the Marlins in this very column a year ago concerning this season, and what a terrific call that turned out to be), and Arrieta will be a big reason for that. In the meantime, his ascension should be taken seriously and bet on accordingly.

•Roenis Elias - Seattle Mariners
Oh man, if there’s one starting pitcher that has made their debut in 2014 and caught my eye more than anyone else -- while coming out of the blue to do it, as this kid was barely recognized within his club’s strong young pitching depth previously -- it’s southpaw Roenis Elias, Seattle’s sneakily-emerging rookie. While Elias’ numbers at the moment are far from desirable (7-8, 4.54 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), the 25-year old actually displayed enormous potential prior to a recent three-start stretch that has seen the left-hander yield five runs or more in each outing. In fact, entering late-June, Elias possessed a very respectable 3.74 ERA, and even though that number has since ballooned up almost a full run, I really think Elias will get back on track in the second half and ultimately become an impact player for awhile.

Pitching in a home venue like Safeco Field for half your starts certainly helps, but it’s also his strikeout potential that leads me to believe he can sustain success at the big league level. Elias has actually registered five or more strikeouts in 13 of his 19 starts, and prior to his current funk, he had also exhibited notable consistency, having surrendered three runs or less 11 times in 16 tries, including an impressive complete game shutout in Detroit on June 1 when he outdueled reigning AL Cy Young Max Scherzer. Just like his arrival onto the major league scene, most still aren’t familiar with him but it won’t be long before more people know the name Elias… Roenis Elias.

•David Hale - Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves boasting a fabulous starting rotation is pretty much always a given with any baseball season (Even when they have to depend on the likes of Gavin Floyd and Aaron Harang), and it appears that will remain the case so long as David Hale is featured as a prominent part of it. I first fell in love with Hale as soon as he made his major league debut last year, when he made two starts and produced an outstanding 14:1 K:BB ratio in his 11 combined innings, while also recording a 0.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

I was so excited for the right-hander that I actually tabbed him as one of my top three sleepers entering the 2014 campaign (Along with Tanner Roark and James Paxton; how many other people made that genius call on Roark besides me?), as I thought Hale would become a regular fixture on the Braves pitching staff, but alas, that would not end up happening, as the talented young right-hander only made a few starts -- and that apparently was only because of the team’s many injuries -- before being relegated to the bullpen once some of their older arms returned from the shelf. Hale made a spot start a few weeks ago and was excellent as always, and it’s only a matter of time before he resurfaces in the rotation. When that happens, look out. If you’re into fantasy baseball, you should claim Hale immediately if he’s reinstated as a starter later on this season. Just like I emphasized last September, David Hale is going to be legitimately tremendous, and for a long time.

•James Paxton - Seattle Mariners
The fact that another Seattle pitcher is being featured in this article -- and one not named Felix Hernandez or Hisashi Iwakuma -- is a main reason why the Mariners are legitimate contenders this season (And I haven’t even discussed the more-known commodity, Taijuan Walker, who is basically a guarantee to succeed). This particular hurler, James Paxton, arguably has as high a ceiling, in my opinion, as any rookie in baseball, and actually might be my favorite up-and-coming left-hander in the game. As mentioned in my David Hale analysis, Paxton was another one of my top three sleepers entering the 2014 campaign, and through his first two starts of the season, it appeared I was spot-on with that call, considering the 25-year old southpaw recorded a 13:2 K:BB ratio in 12 combined innings, while putting together a 2.25 ERA and microscopic 0.67 WHIP in the process.

Unsurprisingly, Paxton won both of those games. Unfortunately, he’s been on the DL ever since thanks to a shoulder issue -- although he is finally close to returning -- and while his sample size this year is quite small, you only have to take a look at what he did last season when he received his first call-up to conclude how dominant this kid can truly be. Paxton made his first four career starts last September, and he was phenomenal, going 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 21:7 K:BB ratio in 24 innings. Overall, he’s racked up 36 career innings thus far, and has a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP to show for it, while opponents are batting just .164 against him. Yeah, this is someone that’s undoubtedly going to be special so make sure you ride him as soon as he makes his grand return.

•Danny Salazar - Cleveland Indians
Yes, I realize Danny Salazar is currently in the minor leagues. Yes, I realize Salazar was nothing but horrific when he was up with the big league club for the first month-and-a-half of the 2014 season. Setbacks can happen with young pitchers, especially very early on in a career when said pitcher is tagged with the pressure of having high expectations from the organization. After the Indians’ surprising break-out run of a year ago (Successfully called by this author, remember), which featured Salazar’s immediate rise towards the end thanks to his standout pitching over ten starts, including a performance that almost single-handedly carried them past the AL Wild Card play-in game, the right-hander was expected to lead the rotation from here on out for years to come with his dominant arsenal.

Instead, Salazar endured the rockiest of runs for a starting pitcher, as he struggled to the tune of a 5.53 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, and only registered two quality starts in his eight tries. Furthermore, opponents were hitting over .300 against him, and the 24-year old averaged one home run allowed per start. Even so, I still believe what we saw last year from him, albeit in a not-so-large sample size, was no fluke or flash in the pan at all, and that Danny Salazar still has monster potential to become something big for a considerable amount of time. He’ll make his return at some point so make sure you keep close tabs on him.

**Honorable Mention: Danny Duffy, Chris Archer, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Skaggs, Vance Worley (If he gets back into the Pittsburgh starting rotation), Tyler Thornburg (Just as I said last year, when he’s permanently in Milwaukee’s rotation, which should’ve been all along), Dallas Beeler.
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Betting Notes - Friday

National League
•Rockies-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--Rockies lost nine of their last ten road games.
--Pittsburgh lost five of last seven games, but is 9-2 in last 11 home games.

--Over is 13-5-1 in Colorado's last nineteen road games.

•Brewers-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Milwaukee lost 11 of its last 13 games.
--Washington won ten of its last fourteen games.

--Five of last six Brewer games went over the total.

•Giants-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Giants lost 13 of their last 20 games.
--Miami lost five of its last six games.

--13 of last 20 Marlin games went over the total.

•Phillies-Braves - 7:35 PM
--Phillies won five of last seven games, but lost last two.
--Atlanta won five of its last six home games.

--Eight of last eleven Philly games went over the total.

•Dodgers-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Dodgers are 15-10 in their last 25 road games.
--St Louis won five of its last seven games.

--Four of last five Dodger games stayed under the total.

•Cubs-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Cubs lost eight of their last ten games.
--Arizona lost 18 of its last 29 games.

--Nine of last twelve Cub games went over the total.

•Mets-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Mets won seven of their last eight games.
--San Diego lost seven of its last nine games.

--16 of last 21 San Diego games stayed under.

American League
•Rangers-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Rangers lost 23 of their last 27 games.
--Toronto lost seven of its last nine games.

--Five of last six Texas road games went over the total.

•Indians-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Indians won six of their last nine games.
--Detroit won five of its last six games.

--Six of last seven Detroit home games went over total.

•Royals-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Royals lost six of their last nine games.
--Boston won four of its last five games.

--Six of last eight Kansas City games stayed under.

•Rays-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Tampa Bay won eight of its last nine road games.
--Twins won five of their last six games.

--Seven of last ten Tampa Bay games went over total.

•Astros-White Sox - 8:10 PM
--Astros won last three road games, after losing 10 of previous 11.
--White Sox lost four of their last five games.

--Seven of last nine Houston games went over the total.

•Mariners-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Seattle won seven of its last nine road games.
--Angels won 12 of their last 14 games.

--Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Mariner games.

•Orioles-Athletics - 10:05 PM
--Baltimore won five of its last six road games.
--Athletics won 11 of their last 12 home games.

--Under is 7-1-3 in last eleven Oakland games.

Interleague
•Reds-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Cincinnati won seven of its last nine games.
--New York lost seven of its last eight home games.

--Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Yankees home games.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
Edwin Jackson of the Chicago Cubs is 3-14 his last seventeen road team starts. When the Cubs signed right-hander Edwin Jackson to a large free-agent contract prior to last season, their worst fears likely didn't include an 18-loss campaign followed by another season of disappointment. Jackson led the majors in losses in 2013 after signing a four-year, $52 million contract. He's been a disappointment so far this season as well, and he's coming off his worst start of 2014 after allowing nine runs -- including three homers -- in 3 2/3 innings of an 11-6 loss to Atlanta on Saturday.

Diamond Trends - Friday
•LA DODGERS are 29-5 (+22.6 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 4.0, OPPONENT 1.6.

•LA ANGELS are 15-1 UNDER (+13.9 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 2.8, OPPONENT 2.9.

•TEXAS is 0-11 (-13.8 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.5, OPPONENT 7.9.

•JEFF SAMARDZIJA is 3-14 (-12.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 2.5, OPPONENT 4.4.

•JERED WEAVER is 37-12 UNDER (+23.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was WEAVER 3.6, OPPONENT 3.2.

•EDWIN JACKSON is 4-19 (-20.4 Units) against the run line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was JACKSON 3.7, OPPONENT 6.3.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (National League), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs.
(68-26 since 1997.) (72.3%, +49.7 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +110.3
The average score in these games was: Team 6, Opponent 4.3 (Average run differential = +1.7)

The situation's record this season is: (2-2, +0.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3, +3.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3, +11.3 units).

•Play Against - All teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135) (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA >=5.00), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games.
(55-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +38.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (43-24 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.3, money line price: -139
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 42 (62.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (13-2, +10.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-4, +19.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (161-99, +10.3 units).

•Play Under - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (ARIZONA) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest.
(62-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.3%, +33.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 8.2, Money Line=-114.4
The average score in these games was: Team 3.7, Opponent 3.4 (Total runs scored = 7.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 51 (58.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-2, +1.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-15, +26.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (111-69, +32.7 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'Blue Birds'

Toronto limping into the break, losing 8 of their last 10 games, 11 of 15 crossing 3.1 per/game while giving up 4.3 per outing open the second half at the Rogers Center against visiting Texas Rangers. Mired in a free-fall the Rangers have won just one of it's last fifteen on the diamond platting 3.6 runs/game with the pitching staff has given up a whopping 7.1 per/contest. R.A. Dickey will start for the Blue Jays. The veteran knuckleballer (7-9, 3.82 ERA) is 1-2 last 3 but has performed better than his record shows. Off six strong innings in a 3-0 loss in Tampa, Dickey has a 1.71 ERA over the span. Yu Darvish will oppose Dickey. The Texas hurler bringing an 8-5 record, 2.97 ERA to the contest has been spanked for 10 ER the past two and is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in his last five giving up at least four runs in four of the five starts. Taking Toronto has been a risky proposition of late, though in this case, the amount of supporting data in favor of Jays makes it much less risky. Jays are on a solid 11-4 stretch at home handing the ball to their knuckler. This being the first game of a home series is yet another nod towards Toronto, since the club has posted a 14-4 record at home in game-one of a series following a road swing and have a smart 10-2 record opening a series at Rogers Center w/Dickey. Rangers 1-12 L13 away from Arlington, 2-4 vs Jays w/Darvish, 2-8 in his last 10 July starts is icing on the cake. Take Toronto.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Brewers at Nationals – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
MIL: Lohse (9-4, 3.26 ERA)
WSH: Strasburg (7-6, 3.46 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Brewers avoided a winless homestand by knocking off the Cardinals on Sunday, 11-2 to snap a seven-game skid. Milwaukee closed the first half in a 2-11 slump following a terrific start, while scoring two runs or less in seven of the past 10 contests. The Nationals grabbed the final two games at Philadelphia as a favorite to finish the first half with 51 victories, while going on an impressive 10-4 run in the final 14 games.

What to watch for: Washington took two of three at Miller Park in late June, but the Brewers racked Strasburg in the series finale, 9-2 as a +130 home underdog. The Nats have won seven of their past nine at home, but have lost three of their previous four home openers. The Brewers have struggled in road series openers recently, posting a 2-5 record in the last seven opportunities, while going ‘under’ the total in four of the past five road games.

Reds at Yankees – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
CIN: Leake (7-7, 3.54 ERA)
NYY: Phelps (3-4, 3.94 ERA)

Previous series recap: In spite of injuries to the right-side of Cincinnati’s infield (Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto), the Reds are back in the NL Central race by winning seven of their past nine games. Cincinnati won all three series on its previous homestand, including taking two of three from Pittsburgh to bust the 50-win plateau. The Yankees are back home for the first time since early July following a 5-6 road swing that concluded with a rain-shortened Sunday night defeat at Baltimore.

What to watch for: Since sweeping Toronto last month, the Yankees have limped to a 2-7 mark in the past nine home contests. New York has won nine of 14 interleague games this season, including a 4-3 record at Yankee Stadium. The Reds own an impressive 13-6 ledger in the past 19 road games, but have lost three straight contests on the highway. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Leake’s last six starts, while the Reds are 4-1 to the ‘over’ in his past five road outings.

Dodgers at Cardinals – 8:15 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
LAD: Haren (8-6, 4.23 ERA)
STL: Lynn (10-6, 3.14 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Dodgers won three of four from the Padres at home to wrap up the first half, with all three victories coming by one run apiece. The Cardinals couldn’t finish off a road sweep of the Brewers, but St. Louis put together a 5-2 record against Pittsburgh and Milwaukee to conclude the opening half of the season just one game out of first place in the NL Central.

What to watch for: Los Angeles dismantled St. Louis in three of four games in late June at Chavez Ravine, but the Dodgers are making their first visit to Busch Stadium since getting bounced in the NLCS last October. The Redbirds have cashed the ‘over’ in seven of their last nine games overall, while St. Louis owns a 6-2 record in Lynn’s past eight home outings. The Dodgers are 6-1 to the ‘over’ in Haren’s last seven starts overall, while Los Angeles has lost three of its past four road series openers.

Mariners at Angels – 10:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
SEA: Iwakuma (8-4, 2.98 ERA)
LAA: Weaver (10-6, 3.45 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Angels remained red-hot after sweeping the Rangers in Arlington to extend their scorching stretch to 11-1 the last 12 games. In nine of those victories, the Halos managed to score at least five runs, including 33 runs in the four wins over Texas. Seattle concluded its surprising first half by grabbing a home series victory over Oakland, but finished its four-game homestand at just 3-4 against the Twins and A’s.

What to watch for: The Mariners have had the Angels’ number this season by going 6-3 in nine matchups, including a three-game sweep in Anaheim back in early April. Iwakuma is unbeaten in his last three starts, while the M’s are 6-0 in his six career starts against Los Angeles. The Angels are on fire at home over the last two months, posting an 18-2 record the last 20 games in Southern California.

Orioles at Athletics – 10:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
BAL: Tillman (7-5, 4.11 ERA)
OAK: Samardzija (1-1, 2.40 ERA)

Previous series recap: Both of these first place clubs finished the first half with a victory over a division rival. The A’s avoided a sweep by knocking off the Mariners, 4-1 as -150 road favorites, while the Orioles concluded a five-game homestand at 3-2 by topping the Yankees, 3-1 to cash as -140 favorites. In all five contests at Camden Yards, Baltimore cashed the ‘under’ all five times.

What to watch for: The A’s captured two of three games at Camden Yards last month over the Orioles, but Baltimore won three of four in its previous trip to Oakland in April 2013. In 10 starts as a road underdog, the Orioles own a stellar 8-2 record with Tillman on the mound, including a 5-0 record as a +130 ‘dog. Oakland has put together a 7-2 mark in its previous nine home series openers, while posting a 9-1 ledger in the past 10 home contests against AL East opponents.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play FRI

Tigers w/ Sanchez -170

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Kansas City at Boston

The Royals kick off the second half of the season in Boston tonight and come into the contest with an 8-0 record in James Shields last 8 starts versus AL East opponents. Kansas City is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 18 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Colorado at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.606; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 16.275 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-160); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-160); Under

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 12.837; Washington (Strasburg) 16.165 Dunkel Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-160); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); Over

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.761; Miami (Eovaldi) 15.361 Dunkel Line: San Francisco 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 13.774; Atlanta (Santana) 18.268 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); Over

Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 16.363; St. Louis (Lynn) 15.213 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+110); Under

Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 14.183; Arizona (Cahill) 13.306 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+120); Over

Game 963-964: NY Mets at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Colon) 15.233; San Diego (Kennedy) 17.556 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-130); Under

Game 965-966: Texas at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 16.240; Toronto (Dickey) 14.932 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-115); Over

Game 967-968: Cleveland at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Bauer) 17.825; Detroit (Sanchez) 16.602 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+155); Over

Game 969-970: Kansas City at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 18.884; Boston (Buchholz) 17.375 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Under

Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 17.952; Minnesota (Gibson) 15.382 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135); Under

Game 973-974: Houston at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Feldman) 13.749; White Sox (Quintana) 15.995 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 2; 9 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-155); Over

Game 975-976: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 16.752; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.468 Dunkel Line: Seattle 2 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Over

Game 977-978: Baltimore at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.017; Oakland (Samardzija) 14.382 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Oakland (-165); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+145); Under

Game 979-980: Cincinnati at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 17.063; NY Yankees (Phelps) 15.403 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Quinnkat ($16.60) in the 8th at Gulfstream on Thursday and likes the Nationals on Friday.

The deficit is 275 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo didn’t do any better with the CFL than he did at Monticello Raceway, losing with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers Thursday night to elevate the deficit to 1,275 moons.

Friday night: Mr. Aitch will band together with the one and only Jimmy Shields — 10 units on the Royals to hit the high note against the Sawx.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

10* Cleveland +1½ -140

This great matchup has the 47-47 Indians at the 53-38 Tigers. We have a pretty even pitching matchup here as Trevor Bauer faces off with Anibal Sanchez. Bauer has been rock solid 3-4 3.84 ERA for the Indians and at 23 is a true young gun for the Indians who are fighting to stay in the playoff race. Take the Indians today +1.5 but I feel they win this outrite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

For Friday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the White Sox -$130/Astros Feldman/Quintana must start.

Ben lee is 174-200-5 -$2730

"Mr Chalk" is 50-36 -$242 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

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Cappers Access

Indians +135
Reds +105

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Friday

SF/Miami over 7.5

Cubs/Dbacks over 8.5

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POWER PLAY WINS

Plays Of The Day

Chicago White Sox -150
New York Yankees -110
St Louis Cardinals -125