7-19-14

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 4
By David Schwab


The run from worst to first for both Winnipeg and Edmonton continued into Week 3 of the new CFL regular season. The Blue Bombers outlasted Montreal last Friday 34-33 as three-point road underdogs to remain perfect on the year at 3-0 both straight-up and against the spread. The total in that game went OVER the closing 48½-point line. The Eskimos improved to 3-0 SU with a 27-11 victory over Ottawa in Friday’s other game as five-point home favorites. That total stayed UNDER the 53-point line.

This past Saturday’s double-header started with Calgary running all over Toronto 34-15 as a two-point favorite on the road. The total stayed UNDER a closing betting line of 55 points in that contest. Week 3 closed things out with British Columbia snapping a two-game skid with a 26-13 victory over defending Grey Cup Champion Saskatchewan as a five-point underdog on the road. The total in this game also stayed UNDER with the closing line set at 51½ points.

Saturday, July 19

Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Point-Spread: BC -5½
Total: 47½

Game Overview

Montreal is still looking for some better consistency on both sides of the ball after a 1-2 start that includes a lopsided loss to Calgary on opening day followed by a solid 15-point victory over BC in Week 2 as a three-point home underdog. The Alouettes racked-up 203 yards on the ground in that win against the Lions.

The Lions are another team searching for an early identity, but they have to be encouraged with last week’s victory. Kevin Glenn played his best game of the season with 170 yards passing and one touchdown throw while Andrew Harris had a big day on the ground with 138 yards rushing and a touchdown on 18 carries.

Betting Trends

Montreal has failed to cover the spread in 22 of the last 29 meetings and it is a costly 3-13 ATS in the last 16 games played in BC. The total in this matchup has stayed UNDER in four of the last five games at BC Place.

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Brandon Watson

CFL

Over B.C.Lions/Montreal

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MLB

National League
Rockies-Pirates
Anderson is 0-3, 6.75 in four starts this season.
Morton is 1-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.

Rockies lost ten of their last eleven road games.
Pittsburgh is 10-2 in last twelve home games.

Over is 13-6-1 in Colorado's last twenty road games.

Brewers-Nationals
Garza is 2-1, 2.31 in his last three starts.
Gonzalez is 3-1, 1.30 in his last four starts.

Milwaukee lost 11 of its last 14 games.
Washington won ten of its last fifteen games.

Five of last seven Brewer games went over the total.


Giants-Marlins
Hudson is 0-4, 6.67 in his last five starts.
Alvarez is 4-1, 2.07 in his last ten starts.

Giants won three of their last four games.
Miami lost six of its last seven games.

14 of last 21 Marlin games went over the total.


Phillies-Braves
Hamels is 2-2, 2.19 in his last nine starts.
Wood is 0-1, 4.92 in his last three starts.

Phillies lost their last three games.
Atlanta won six of its last seven home games.

Nine of last twelve Philly games went over the total.


Dodgers-Cardinals
Greinke is 2-1, 2.45 in his last three starts.
Kelly is 1-1, 4.42 in four starts this season.

Dodgers lost four of their last five road games.
St Louis won six of its last eight games.

Five of last six Dodger games stayed under the total.


Cubs-Diamondbacks
Wood is 1-3, 6.84 in his last five starts.
Miley is 2-0, 1.25 in his last three starts.

Cubs lost nine of their last eleven games.
Arizona lost 18 of its last 30 games.

Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Cub games.


Mets-Padres
Gee is 3-0, 1.33 in his last four starts.
Ross is 1-3, 1.55 in his last four starts.

Mets won eight of their last nine games.
San Diego lost eight of its last ten games.

16 of last 22 San Diego games stayed under.


American League
Rangers-Blue Jays
Lewis allowed 13 runs in 2.1 IP in his last start.
Stroman is 1-0, 3.20 in his last four starts.

Rangers lost 23 of their last 28 games.
Toronto lost eight of its last ten games.

Five of last seven Texas road games went over the total.


Indians-Tigers
Kluber is 3-1, 1.93 in his last four starts. McCallister is 0-5, 6.60 in his last seven starts.
Tigers won last four Scherzer starts (3-0, 1.60); Rice alum Ver Haken is making MLB debut; he is 6-7, 3.67 in 19 AAA starts this year.

Indians won seven of their last ten games.
Detroit won five of its last seven games.

Seven of last eight Detroit home games went over total.


Royals-Red Sox
Duffy is 1-4, 2.93 in his last five starts.
de la Rosa is 1-0, 1.89 in his last three starts.

Royals lost seven of their last ten games.
Boston won five of its last six games.

Six of last nine Kansas City games stayed under.


Astros-White Sox
Keuchel is 1-2, 6.57 in his last four starts.
Noesi is 1-3, 5.82 in his last six starts.

Astros won three of last four road games, after losing 10 of previous 11.
White Sox lost four of their last six games.

Seven of last ten Houston games went over the total.


Rays-Twins
Price is 4-0, 1.41 in his last four starts.
Correia is 1-2, 2.37 in his last three starts.


Tampa Bay won nine of its last ten road games.
Twins won five of their last seven games.

Eight of last eleven Tampa Bay games went over total.


Mariners-Angels
Hernandez is 3-0, 1.69 in his last four starts (2-0, 2.45 vs Angels in '14).
Richards is 7-0, 1.27 in his last eight starts.

Seattle won seven of its last nine road games.
Angels won 12 of their last 14 games.

Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve Mariner games.


Orioles-A's
Chen is 2-1, 5.72 in his last five starts.
Hammel is 2-1, 3.55 in his last four starts.

Baltimore won five of its last seven road games.
A's won 12 of their last 13 home games.

Under is 7-2-3 in last twelve Oakland games.


Interleague games
Reds-Bronx
Reds are 15-3 in Simon starts (6-0, 2.62 in last eight).
McCarthy is 2-1, 3.26 in his last three starts.

Cincinnati won seven of its last ten games.
Bronx lost seven of its last nine home games.

Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Bronx home games.


Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Greinke 11-8; Kelly 2-2
-- Anderson 1-3; Morton 9-10
-- Garza 10-9; Gonzalez 9-5
-- Hudson 11-6; Alvarez 13-6
-- Hamels 6-10; Wood 4-7
-- Wood 10-9; Miley 10-10
-- Gee 5-4; Ross 8-12 (1-7 last 8)


-- Lewis 8-8; Stroman 3-5
-- McCallister 5-6 (1-6 last seven), Kluber 12-8; Scherzer 14-5, Ver Hagen 0-0
-- Duffy 5-8; de la Rosa 3-3
-- Price 12-8; Correia 6-13
-- Keuchel 10-7; Noesi 6-8
-- Hernandez 14-6 (won last four); Richards 15-4 (won last eight)
-- Chen 11-7; Hammel 10-7/0-1

-- Simon 15-3; McCarthy 4-14/1-0

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Greinke 4-19; Kelly 1-4
-- Anderson 1-4; Morton 3-19
-- Garza 7-19; Gonzalez 6-14
-- Hudson 1-18; Alvarez 5-19
-- Hamels 3-16; Wood 5-11
-- Wood 4-19; Miley 3-20
-- Gee 2-9; Ross 5-20


-- Lewis 6-16; Stroman 2-8
-- McCallister 5-6, Kluber 4-20; Scherzer 6-19, Ver Hagen 0-0
-- Duffy 3-13; de la Rosa 1-6
-- Price 8-20; Correia 4-19
-- Keuchel 5-17; Noesi 3-14
-- Hernandez 3-20; Richards 4-19
-- Chen 6-18; Hammel 5-18

-- Simon 5-18 (1 of last 9); McCarthy 5-19

Umpires
-- LA-StL-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Kulpa games.
-- Col-Pitt-- Seven of last nine TWelke games stayed under.
-- Mil-Wsh-- Five of last six Carapazza games stayed under.
-- SF-Mia-- Favorites won ten of last twelve Segal games.
-- Phil-Atl-- Five of last seven Little games stayed under.
-- Chi-Az-- Over is 5-3 in Joyce games this season.
-- NY-SD-- Five of last seven HGibson games stayed under.

-- Tex-Tor-- Favorites won five of last six Tumpane games.
-- Cle-Det-- Five of last six Barry games stayed under. Seven of last nine Everitt games went over.
-- KC-Bos-- Home side won last six Barksdale games; last three stayed under.
-- TB-Min-- Last five Dimuro games went over total.
-- Hst-Chi-- Nine of last eleven O'Nora games stayed under.
-- Sea-LA-- Five of last six Morales games went over.
-- Balt-A's-- Over is 6-1-2 in last nine Emmel games.

-- Cin-NY-- Eight of last eleven Nauert games stayed under.

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VIP Picks Soccer

Neftan - Belshina
Tip: Neftan -0.5, 1
Odds: 1,83

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Jeffrey James (YouWinNow)

Play of the Day #918 Detroit Tigers with Scherzer moneyline

Scherzer has been having an awesome season and he is back to his old self after a little bit of a rough stretch. He has owned the Indians with a 9-4 record against them and the Tigers have been very good on Saturday games with an 11-4 record. Cleveland is 0-3 as a road underdog in this price range and they have not been good on the road most of the season. Take the Tigers here behind Scherzer as the play of the day.

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play 18-6 run Sat: Padres w/ Ross -130

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Hondo

Hondo started the second half with a setback Friday night, losing with the Royals against the Sawx to boost the debt to 1,325 lemongellos.

Saturday: Mr. Aitch will attempt to soar with the ’Stros — 10 units on Keuchel to collar those darn Chisox.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Nationals on Friday and likes the Nationals on Saturday.

The deficit is 354 sirignanos.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

Red Sox -130

Dbacks -150

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Today's MLB Picks

Seattle at LA Angels

The Mariners look to bounce back from last night's 3-2 loss to the Angels (58-37) in 16 innings and come into tonight's contest with a 5-0 record in Felix Hernandez' last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. Seattle is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 19 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.861; St. Louis (Kelly) 12.412 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Under

Game 903-904: Colorado at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Anderson) 16.345; Pittsburgh (Morton) 18.175 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 9 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-155); Over

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Garza) 16.708; Washington (Roark) 15.858 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+125); Over

Game 907-908: San Francisco at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hudson) 13.746; Miami (Alvarez) 15.339 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+100); Under

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.612; Atlanta (Harang) 14.339 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 15.594; Arizona (Miley) 14.503 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); Under

Game 913-914: NY Mets at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.494; San Diego (Ross) 13.413 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Under

Game 915-916: Texas at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 15.069; Toronto (Stroman) 14.119 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Toronto (-190); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+165); Over

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 15.786; Detroit (Scherzer) 17.313 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 8 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-175); Over

Game 919-920: Kansas City at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 14.761; Boston (De La Rosa) 16.336 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Under

Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.923; Minnesota (Hughes) 13.583 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under

Game 923-924: Houston at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 13.887; White Sox (Noesi) 15.857 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 2; 9 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-115); Over

Game 925-926: Seattle at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.746; LA Angels (Richards) 14.613 Dunkel Line: Seattle 2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100); Over

Game 927-928: Baltimore at Oakland (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 16.612; Oakland (Hammel) 15.503 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Oakland (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+145); Under

Game 929-930: Cincinnati at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 16.703; NY Yankees (McCarthy) 15.607 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+110); Over

Game 931-932: Cleveland at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 16.586; Detroit (VerHagen) 17.507 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Under

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POWER PLAY WINS

Power Plays Of The Day

* L.A. Dodgers -125
* Pittsburgh Pirates -145
* Arizona Diamondbacks -145

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Four MLB teams sportsbooks don't want to win the World Series
By JASON LOGAN

The MLB season has hit the turn and is heading toward home with the All-Star break in the rearview. This is the time when the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, and sportsbooks online and in Nevada start picking their favorites.

We asked books to reveal which teams their cheering against – according to the liability of the futures market – and why these clubs could do some damage if they win the World Series.

San Francisco Giants (52-43, second in NL West)

The Giants started strong and drew a lot of action, especially with some sportsbooks pricing San Francisco as high as 30/1 to win the World Series back in April. San Francisco went 16-11 in April and followed that with a sterling 16-9 record in May. It came crashing to earth with a 10-16 June and is on a 6-7 skid heading into the second half of the schedule.

“In March, we took a lot of action on the Giants at 20/1,” Mike Perry. “I think that many bettors remember that in recent years, San Fran has been one of the better teams after the All-Star break, and are banking on another strong second half of the season from them.”

Milwaukee Brewers (53-43, first in NL Central)

The Brewers are one of the biggest surprises so far this baseball season. Milwaukee, slotted as a 10/1 long shot to win the National League Central and projected to win around 79.5 games, exploded out of the gate with a 19-8 record in the first month of the season. Things have definitely cooled off for the Brew Crew, posting a 2-10 mark in July so far. That’s makes books happy.

“We had one player come in and bet them when we first put them up at 80/1 (to win World Series),” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas. “A guy came in and wanted to bet them to win like half a million. Was like $6,200 or something. We didn’t let him bet that, we had to cut him back a bit.”

Baltimore Orioles (52-42, first in AL East)

Baltimore has capitalized on a down year in the American League East. Boston is suffering a World Series hangover, New York and Toronto can’t stay healthy, and Tampa Bay is swinging a limp noodle at the plate. The Orioles have been on the up for the past few seasons but books still opened the O’s at long odds to win the World Series, which has them sweating a bit as the summer heats goes up.

“The first week of June we had the Orioles at 50/1 to win the World Series, and that is the main reason we are exposed on them,” says Perry.

Seattle Mariners (51-44, third in AL West)

The Mariners have the pitching to get the job done in October, but it will be up to their bats if the team gets there or not. Seattle, hitting .245 BA at the break, is eight games behind Oakland in the American League West but in the hunt for a wild card spot. They were as high as 75/1 in Las Vegas, where books have trimmed that price to 20/1.

“I think they’re like second or third in run differential in the AL,” says Stoneback, a Mariners fan pulled between the futures liability on Seattle. “But they hit like .250 with runners in scoring position and only like .240 overall on the season.”

Bonus note: The Chicago Cubs are among the biggest liabilities to the futures book, both at online and Nevada markets. Chicago was 100/1 to win the World Series to start the season and is now 1,000/1, but still draws action from Cubs fans blindly betting their favorite team.

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What trend hit big in major league's return to action?
Andrew Caley

Major League Baseball returned to action Friday and it was a good night for teams in the visiting dugout.

Road teams went 13-2 against the runline in the first day back since the All-Star break, hitting at a mark of an incredible 87 percent.

Away teams are coming in at almost 38 percent for the season.

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Angels acquire Huston Street from Padres
By Chris Cotillo

The sides have agreed on a six-player deal that will send three top prospects to San Diego.

The Los Angeles Angels have acquired Huston Street from the San Diego Padres, both teams announced on Friday night. The Padres will receive prospects Taylor Lindsey, Jose Rondon, R.J. Alvarez and an Elliot Morris in exchange for Street and minor league pitcher Trevor Gott. The deal is likely to be announced after the Padres' game this evening.

The Angels have reportedly been pursuing Street and Padres starter Ian Kennedy in recent days, but the sides were said not to be matching up on a deal for Kennedy. Instead of a bigger deal involving Kennedy, the Angels will part with a good chunk of their farm system to solidify their bullpen with the addition of an All-Star closer in Street.

Street, who recently said that he expected either himself or teammate Joaquin Benoit to be dealt before the trade deadline, has posted a 1.09 ERA and 24 saves in 33 innings with the Padres this season. He has reportedly drawn interest from teams looking for bullpen help such as the Pirates, Orioles and Giants, but now will join an Angels bullpen that has received a boost from new additions Jason Grilli and Joe Thatcher in the last couple of weeks. He will immediately become the team's closer, replacing Joe Smith, who has been strong in the role since taking over for Ernesto Frieri. Street is under team control for next season due to the $7M team option on his contract for 2015.

Gott, 21, is a right-handed reliever who has a combined 2-4 record, 3.56 ERA and 16 saves in 43 innings with High-A Lake Elsinore and Double-A San Antonio on the season. The 2013 sixth-round pick was not ranked by Baseball America as one of San Diego's top 30 prospects before the season, and projects as a late-inning reliever or closer at the major league level.

Lindsey, who was ranked by Baseball America before the season as the Angels' top prospect, is a second baseman who has hit .247/.323/.400 in 75 games with Triple-A Salt Lake so far this season. The 22-year old was a first-round pick (37th overall) in the 2010 draft and was ranked by Baseball America as the 93rd best prospect in baseball before the season, with his main strength being hitting for contact.

Rondon, 20, entered the season as the Angels' 12th best prospect, according to Baseball America. The shortstop has spent his season with High-A Inland Empire, hitting .327/.362/.418 in 72 games. He has a reputation as a four-tool player who is strong in every category minus power, and is an above-average fielder and runner.

Morris, 22, was 3-3 with a 4.17 ERA in nine starts with Class-A Inland Empire with 40 strikeouts and 28 walks in 45 innings. The Halos selected Morris in the fourth round of the 2013 draft.

Alvarez, who was ranked as the Angels' fourth best prospect after last season, has pitched to a 0.33 ERA in 27 innings out of the bullpen for Double-A Arkansas so far this season. The 23-year old was the Angels' third-round pick in 2012, and has been a consistently good reliever in the minor leagues for his entire career.