7-20-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TRACE ADAMS

1500 Raise the Bar
Run Line Rout

Tampa Bay Rays RL-1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CRAIG DAVIS

40 DIME Run Line Dog Lock

Oakland A's RL-1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SCOTT DELANEY

80 Dime American League Total of the Year

UNDER - Baltimore at Oakland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFF BENTON

50 DIME Interleague Total of the Year

UNDER - Cincinnati vs NY Yankees

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SEAN MICHAELS

100 DIME MAX WAGER

Arizona Diamondbacks ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRAD WILTON

100 Dime A.L. Game of the Season

Boston Red Sox ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANTHONY REDD

40 Dime Run Line Massacre

Los Angeles Dodgers RL-1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GABRIEL DUPONT

100 Dime MLB Dog Shocker of the Year

Colorado Rockies ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

San Francisco Giants

The Marlins are in a major slump because they can't hit the ball. Tim Lincecum strives on pitching against teams that don't hit well. It would not shock me to see Lincecum walk away with a 3 hit shutout. Take the Giants.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Overunder Baseball

Over 7 Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals

2.00

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Tampa Bay Rays -135 over Minnesota Twins
(System Record: 63-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 63-44

Soccer Crusher
Victoria + Corinthians OVER 2
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 610-21, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 610-503-87

Here are the rest of his baseball plays for today...


Cincinnati Reds -105 over NY Yankees
Detroit Tigers -138 over Cleveland Indians
Oakland Athletics -163 over Baltimore Orioles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Mets -110

50* White Sox -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

H&H Sports

MLB

3* Boston Red Sox

2* Under 6.5 Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals

2* Over 8.5 Seattle Mariners/Los Angeles Angels

2* Over 8 Tampa Bay Rays/Minnesota Twins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Handicapper King

MLB

San Francisco Giants


Free Arizona Diamondbacks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts

We've run out of superlatives for Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, who has won his last eight starts allowing only five runs combined, one of which was a 15-strikeout no-hit performance against Colorado on June 18. But in the betting world, sometimes you have to say enough is enough. And when we're talking about enough in the betting world, it's all about the price and where it probably should be.

So, let's break down where tonight's Dodgers-Cardinals line should be. On a neutral field, without pitchers involved, the game is about a pick 'em. We'd then give the Cardinals about a 10-cent edge because they're at home. As the months go on for quality teams the home field increases. So since we're in late-July after the All-Star break, 10 cents is justified compared to April when it's maybe only about five cents. So on that alone, without the pitching matchup, we have the Cardinals at -120.

Now the big tamale is adding in the pitchers and in this instance we have baseball's best pitcher in Kershaw (11-2, 1.78 ERA), on a hot streak, going against a quality young Carlos Martinez (2-4, 4.43) making only his eighth career start and seventh this season after 30 appearances in relief.

While Martinez's ERA may suggest that he has struggled, the Cardinals have bailed him out and won five of his six starts. Okay, so he has allowed four runs in each of his past two outings. We get that, but this is the kid's dream. He has wanted to be a starter ever since he came into the big leagues last season and nearly won a spot in the spring based on his great stuff before being relegated to the bullpen.

Besides all the dreams of Martinez, the cold hard facts make Kershaw at least 80 cents better in any situation. However, when looking at the -185 price on Kershaw, things just don't add up. If Kershaw is 80 cents better than Martinez, the price should be -170 based on home field for St. Louis and also giving them a similar overall team rating.

Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina being out is a big deal, but they're playing great ball right now, winning four of their past five and seven of their last nine while looking for a sweep right out of the gate after the break. But Molina being out is already factored into the overall team rating, so no minuses factored in for the Cards, especially with their great play lately.

With the Cardinals' win Saturday, coupled with the Brewers loss, the Birds are now tied for first place in the NL Central. Meanwhile, with the Giants winning the past two days at Miami and the Dodgers dropping two, San Francisco now has a one-game lead in the NL West. That momentum on both sides is worth a three cent edge to the Cardinals. So now we're at Dodgers -167.

Two key players left Saturday's game which has to be factored in as well. Matt Holliday banged his head on a play at second while the Dodgers' best player, Yasiel Puig, was hit in the hand. Both players left the game early and their status for Sunday night's game is unknown at the time of writing this, but of the two, Puig is the more valuable player and worth at least six cents to the number while Holliday is worth about two cents (he's not been the typical power-hitting Holliday of the past).

So let's just say they're both out, which gives the Cardinals a four-cent edge. Now we're at Dodgers -163. We can logically say, unless we see wild lineup changes, that Kershaw and the Dodgers are priced about 22 cents too high and that makes it a must play on the undervalued team. And the sell is even easier when they're going for the sweep and playing great ball.

For those that read all this and say "so what" and play the run-line at -1.5 -110 and roll with the Kershaw express, consider that the Dodgers have scored only 12 runs in their past seven games. That's with Puig in the lineup while Matt Kemp bickers about his role on the club. Also consider that before Kershaw beat the Cardinals earlier this season, he had been 0-5 with a 6.59 ERA against them in his previous five outings, including two losses in the NLCS last season. You could downgrade Kershaw a couple of cents on past history as well.

I picked the Dodgers to win the World Series a few days ago, and still believe they will, but baseball is all about moments and streaks. While Kershaw has a great streak going, his team isn't performing well offensively lately. And the run-line players following Kershaw's roll know exactly what I mean as he beat the Padres, 2-1, in his last outing.

The play in this game is St. Louis to win and get the sweep.

Sunday's selections:

Cardinals (Martinez) +170 vs. Dodgers

Padres (Despaigne) -104 vs. Mets

Cubs (Arrieta) +109 at Diamondbacks

Mariners/Angels OVER 8.5 (-110)

Reds (Cueto) -101 at Yankees