7-22-14

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Phillygodfather

MLB (963) Total OV9EV (Texas Rangers Vrs. NY YANKEES)

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Primetime Insiders

4* GOM

Padres/Cubs Under 9.5

Our system loves this play in Chicago tonight between the Padres and the Cubs. We understand why this number is so high as the wind is blowing out and we have two fly ball pitchers but come on Vegas. This number should not be close to 9.5 tonight. We have two of the poorest hitting teams in baseball including the Padres who rank near the bottom in every offensive category. Additionally, we have two underrated pitchers in Stults and Hendricks. The Cubs are a better lefty hitting team but are ice cold of late hitting .222 since the break. Like stated earlier Stults is a fly ball pitcher but the Cubs are 28th in runs and 29th in batting average. Stults was torched by the Cubs last time out the ERA and runs was not an accurate estimation of his performance. Stults throws 51% fastball, 15% slider, and 25% changeup. The Cubs are terrible hitting all of those pitches especially the slider where they rank dead last. Hendricks is coming into this contest with only 1 start this year and he was torched however similar to Stults it was not an accurate representation of his skills. The Padres are batting a lowly .210 on the road. Hendricks throws the fastball on 55%, cutter 15%, and changeup 25%. He should have success against all these pitches as the Padres are worst against both the fastball and changeup and below average against the cutter. Our system doesn't think this game gets to 7 let alone 9.5. Vegas is gravely overestimating the weather in Chicago tonight and this game should stay under no problem and that is why we are making it our 4* Totals GOM!

3* Play

Giants -129

This is a matchup between the Giants and Philadelphia in the city of Brotherly Love tonight. We have Petit against Hernandez. We have two teams headed in opposite directions since the break with the Phillies 1-3 and the Giants 3-1. Reflective of their record is their hitting, the Giants are hitting .298 while the Phillies .271. Hernandez is a lot better at home but still owns a 1-5 record. Hernandez is known to be very dependent on this fastballs and changeup which is going to cause some issues against the Giants who are top 10 against fastballs! Petit who is very underrated according to our system is dependent on a plethora of pitches including 41% fastball, 18% slider, and 26% curveball. The Phillies struggle against Petit's top two pitches as they are among the worst. This game should be settled early as the Giants should be able to get Hernandez with little trouble.

2* Plays

Royals -120 **A pitching mismatch here with Chen vs Carroll. This game should have been closer to -150. **

Tigers -115 **Surprised to see this line so small with Porcello pitching the way he has been except for the last outing. Anderson has been tough but he will be hard pressed to keep the Tigers from opening this game up**

Mets -102 **Love deGrom in this spot against the Mariners. This game almost rated out as a 3* plays so it tells you how strong this play is. Ramirez hasn't won since April 1st and has been walking batters left and right while deGrom has been an ace**

1* Plays

Phillies/Giants Under 8.5

Dodgers +108

Reds +115

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NonStopSportsPicks


Washington - 1.5 R/L, -115, 1.25*

Washington - 180, 0.75*

- This is a combination bet, and something we've done a few times this season. We're basically saying that we like the Nationals to cover the -1.5 RL, but also hedging a bit of it on the moneyline in case they win by 1. Some of you may simply choose to bet 2* on the -1.5, and I cannot argue with you there. But my goal is to help us practice money management, & show how to build bankroll and win LONG-TERM. And this is a great + EV move. Now the reason for this play. The Rockies are flat out awful right now and are sending pitchers to the mound who shouldn't be in the major leagues. Look at what Flande has done in his last 3 starts this season, and he's walking a TON of hitters, and has allowed 12 runs and 21 hits in 14+ innings. On the other side, prior to Zimmerman's last outing he's been spectacular! Add to this the fact that Morneau is out, Tulo is doubtful, and Cargo isn't looking likely to play either. Where do the Rockies get the help offensively; because their pitching isn't going to slow the Nationals!

I also have leans to the Cubs (Hendricks was REALLY good last game after a struggling first inning due to nerves, mostly I think, in his first major league start).

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Sheep

Over 8 -120 Los Angeles Dodgers/Pittsburgh Pirates

Tampa Bay Rays +140

Philadelphia Phillies +110

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Vegas Runner

Over 8 -120 Los Angeles Dodgers/Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers -130

Kansas City Royals -130