7-27-14

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Shakers Shorts

Kansas City +101

Neither of these throwers for today's game is anything to brag about but in the case of the Indians, they have struggled verses left handed pitching to the tune of just a 1.29 Runs Per 9 over their last 10 games played. In addition the KC Bullpen has been superb lately + the Royals after slumping a bit are winning games right now and getting good run production during the process. Cleveland has not been a good road proposition this year and have just 1 win in their last 7 tries. The small sample of Salazar's results verses KC (2 Starts 0-2, 6.97 ERA) is nothing but a Bonus here. We have handicapped this one with a much larger line than Books want us to believe and an easy decision for me.

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Brickyard 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts

After a week off, the 20th race on the NASCAR Sprint Cup season takes us to Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the Brickyard 400. There have been 20 races on the famed bricks and a Chevrolet has won 15 times, including the past 11. Yes, that isn't a typo -- 11 straight Chevy wins.

Even though drivers like Ryan Newman and Paul Menard have won there in two of the past three seasons, the norm for Indy has been that only elite drivers win. Eight Brickyard 400 winners have gone on to win a season championship the same year and 15 of the winners have won a championship in their careers. There isn't any type of track that has that kind of select group.

Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski come in as the LVH Superbook's 5/1 co-favorites (Bet $100 to win $500) to win on Sunday and it's quite understandable since they both lead the season with three wins each. Johnson has won four times on the storied track and has a series leading 109.8 driver rating, which is over five points better than the second best (Tony Stewart 104.1). He was runner-up last season and his four wins there have come in the past eight seasons.

For Keselowski, he gets high marks because of the roll he's on which has seen him win two of the past three races on the season -- contributing to a current Ford streak of four straight wins. Prior to that Ford streak, a Hendrick Chevy had won five straight.

Keselowski is also co-favored because of how well he ran at Pocono Raceway last month where he led the most laps (95) before settling for second-place. I always equate Indy and Pocono together because of the long straightaways and the tight flat turns, or at least the tight flat turn three at Pocono. All four turns at Indy are flat and we've seen a big correlation there from who was strong at the previous Pocono race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. won his first career race at Pocono in June and at 10/1 odds. He should be highly considered to get his first career win at the Brickyard and join his daddy in elite status who won there in 1995. Junior is tied with Keselowski with nine top-5 finishes on the season and has a series leading 13 top-10 finishes. He is having a championship-type of season and winning the Brickyard would be a great sign that he is championship-bound.

At Pocono, eight Chevy's finished in the top-10 and it's likely we'll see Chevy win for the 12th straight time at the Brickyard on Sunday. Until Menard and Newman, we rarely saw drivers at odds higher than 12/1 on the bricks, but a few candidates out there make a strong case just because of Pocono and having great Hendrick horsepower. Indian native Tony Stewart (15/1), Kyle Larson (25/1) and Las Vegan Kurt Busch (30/1) all have a great shot at winning.

Busch finished sixth in his first Indy 500 run in May and has all the built in criteria to be a winner at Indy based on the history. He's won a season championship (2004), he drives a Chevy and he ran well at Pocono (3rd)in June. Plus, he's 30/1, which is always enough of a price to try and sell myself on betting someone.

I'm going to roll with four-time Brickyard winner Jeff Gordon to win this week at 8/1. He won the first race for NASCAR on the fabled track (1994), he drives a Chevy, he's a past champion and he's been running great all season. Everything fits!

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
2) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
4) #41 Kurt Busch (30/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (5/1)

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Dodgers, Giants square off

L.A. Dodgers (58-47) at San Francisco Giants (57-47)

First pitch: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET

Line and Total: Dodgers -110, Giants +100, Total 7

The Dodgers and Giants continue their battle for the National League West on Sunday night.

Los Angeles will be looking to sweep San Francisco after earning an 8-1 win on Friday and a 5-0 shutout performance by Clayton Kershaw last night.

Los Angeles is in the midst of a nine-game road trip in which it is playing three teams with winnings records. Over the first two series, the club was a poor 2-4, as they dropped to 1.5 games behind the Giants in the division. In the Dodgers' most recent set against the Pirates, they won the first contest, but were dominated over the final two games, as they were outscored 18-8. 1B Adrian Gonzalez has not been the problem during this recent poor stretch though, going 8-for-22 (.364) with two doubles, a home run and 5 RBI. San Francisco has not wanted to relinquish its hold on first place in the division and has been victorious in five of seven games coming into this series. Heading into tonight, the Dodgers hold a 1/2-game lead on the division.

The Giants nearly finished up a four-game sweep in Philadelphia earlier this week, but were unable to get any offense going on Thursday night as they lost 2-1 while going just 1-for-4 with runners in scoring position. C Buster Posey (.284 BA) has been on fire since the All-Star Game, going 11-for-28 (.393) with three doubles, a home run and 7 RBI. The pitching matchup for this contest will pit LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (11-5, 3.39 ERA) of the Dodgers against Giants RHP Yusmeiro Petit (3-3, 4.24).

Including the last two days, the Giants hold a solid 28-21 edge over the Dodgers in this matchup over the past three seasons, going 13-10 in home games and 7-5 this year. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been a tremendous addition to the Dodgers staff since entering the majors last season and has compiled a 25-13 record with a 3.14 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his first 49 starts. While his ERA has improved this year by nearly a half a run, some of his other numbers have declined, as he has walked 2.3 batters this year compared to just 1.8 last season. He has also had a lot of trouble against lefties on the year, allowing them to hit .280 against him over 111 batters faced.

With that said, Ryu has been an extremely reliable starter and has pitched at least six innings while allowing three or fewer runs in 15 of his 19 starts. If you take away his start earlier in the month against the Tigers (2.1 IP, 10 H, 7 ER), Ryu is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 23:1 K/BB ratio in his three other July outings.

He’s already faced the Giants seven times in his young MLB career, putting together a 3-3 record with a 3.24 ERA (1.44 WHIP) and has struck out just 5.0 batters per nine innings with one home run allowed in 41.2 frames. OF Hunter Pence (8-for-18, 2 doubles, 5 RBI) and 2B Marco Scutaro (5-for-12) have had no issues seeing the ball out of Ryu’s hand while SS Brandon Crawford is hitless with two strikeouts in 10 at-bats against the lefty.

Coming into this series, the Dodgers’ bullpen has gone 8-17 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while successfully saving 32-of-38 (84%) games. Kenley Jansen (3.32 ERA, 29 saves) has been absolutely amazing in his past 11 games, allowing a meager five hits with no runs while striking out 14 batters in 11 inning. For the season, the closer has struck out 13.9 batters per nine innings.

Yusmerio Petit was expected to start for San Franciso but the club has now named newcomer Jake Peavy (1-9, 4.72 ERA) the starter. The Giants picked up Peavy from the Red Sox on Saturday after a rough 20 starts in the American League. Run support was a major issue for the right-hander, who was backed by two or fewer in each of his last eight outings, compiling an 0-6 record with a 4.71 ERA.

That problem may not change with the Giants, who are batting .158 while scoring two runs during their current three-game losing streak.

Peavy can go a long way to changing that since he's 14-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 25 career starts against them. He tossed a three-hitter in an 8-1 road win for Boston on Aug. 25.

Entering Friday, the Giants’ relievers had combined to go 20-9 with a solid 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while converting 32-of-45 (71%) save opportunities. Closer Santiago Casilla (1.16 ERA, 7 saves) has already blown three saves this year while getting lucky with batters hitting .208 BABIP.

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Jesse Schule

NY Yankees
Baltimore Under

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SPORTS HANDICAPPER KING

MLB
SEATTLE MARINERS

Freeloader --- San Francisco Giants

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MLB

'Dodgers go for Sweep'

The eyes of most baseball fans, as well as those focused on baseball betting, will be on the finale of this pivotal three-game series between rival San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Dodgers taking the first two games moving 1/2 game up in the NL West go for the sweep handing the ball to southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu sporting a 11-5 record on the year, 3.39 ERA. He is coming off a sharp 7 innings of 2 run ball in a victory at Pittsburgh giving the hurler a sparkling 7-2 mark on the road with a 2.73 ERA. Ryu has thrived when in the position he is in tonight. In his last start at AT&T Park back in April, Ryu pitched seven shutout innings as visiting Los Angeles beat San Francisco marking a third consecutive team start win for the hurler in the Bay area. Dodgers are also 4-1 in his July road starts, on a 16-9 road stretch with the hurler. Giants trot out Yusmeiro Petit sitting at 3-3 with a 4.24 ERA in 27 appearances, six of which were starts. Well to note, Petit has never started vs LA as a member of Giants but brings to the mound an 0-4 team start record vs Dodgers while with D-Backs.

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PowerPlayWins

Today's Power Plays of The Day

Cincinnati Reds(+110)
Pitcher: Latos

Kansas City Royals(-105)
Pitcher: Chen

Pittsburgh Pirates(-120)
Pitcher: Volquez

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Jeff clement

7* arizona/ philadelphia over 8.5 (-125)
underdog of the day new york mets +125
8* baltimore -105

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Jeff Clement

Jeff's MLB Road Warrior 8 Unit Play!

Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels

8 Unit Detroit Tigers -105

Detroit(57-44) vs. Los Angeles Angels(62-41). R.Porcello(12-5) ERA 3.42 vs. H.Santiago(2-7) ERA 4.02. The Tigers are 8-2 last 10 Porcello road games and 8-2 last 10 road games as an underdog. The Angels are 2-9 last 11 Santiago starts against teams with winning records and 0-4 last 4 Santiago home starts as a favorite. Detroit is a 8 Unit Play!

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Arizona @ PHILADELPHIA

Arizona -109 over PHILADELPHIA

(Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)

Roberto Heredia Hernández (formerly Fausto Carmona) still isn’t fooling anyone. His biggest problem is his inability to find the strike zone. Hernandez has the worst BB/K split in the majors in terms of ratio among pitchers with at least 10 starts. In 106 innings, Hernandez has walked 54 batters while striking out just 71. Hernandez has posted a horrific hr/f of 11% for two years running. A drop in control, struggles vs. lefties and dominant start/disaster start split all hint that a disastrous second half might be in the cards, just like last season.

Vidal Nuno really isn’t much better but at least he throws strikes and is in much better form. The “change of scenery” theory in which traded players are invigorated may apply here. Nuno has a BB/K split in his last five starts of 7/24 in 27 innings. He’s posted a 3.29 ERA over that span and has a good chance to keep it going here. The real story behind this wager however, is that the Diamondbacks are simply playing much better and scoring a lot more runs. The Phillies went off for nine runs on Friday but that was only their third win in 11 games. They’ve also scored three runs or less in six of those 11 losses. Philadelphia’s .224 batting average at home against lefties is the fourth worst mark in the majors. By contrast, Arizona is hitting .280 over their last 15 games, which is the second best mark in the NL. They are also 9-6 over that span and have scored 15 runs over the first two games of this series. On Friday they scored five times but between Mark Trumbo and Miguel Montero, batting 5th and 6th respectively, that pair left 12 runners stranded. The Snakes could’ve tripled Friday’s output. The Diamondbacks could be in for a strong second half, as they grossly underachieved in the first half and now they’re heating up. As a small favorite here, one has to like their chances.


Miami @ HOUSTON

Miami +103 over HOUSTON

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)

The Marlins have won six of seven and the first two games of this series while the Astros have dropped four straight and seven of their last nine. Over their last three games, Houston is hitting .198 and has scored four runs. Collin McHugh returns to the rotation after rehabbing from a finger injury. McHugh was performing poorly before going down. He gave up 10 earned runs in 17 innings in his last three starts - all losses. In fact, he has not posted a victory since June 3. McHugh had a nice run early in the year which has led to his 3.28 ERA but don’t expect it to continue. Formerly Colorado’s waiver fodder and NYM farm-hand, Houston picked up Collin McHugh, owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level, in December and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he's been able to stick around. Dude caught lightning in a bottle for a brief time but the league has caught up to him.

Jacob Turner is high on our radar as a prime breakout target. Jacob Turner was the key to the Anibal Sanchez trade in the summer of 2012. Turner was demoted to the pen to work some things out and in his reinsertion into the rotation last Tuesday he pitched five strong innings against Atlanta. He’ll likely get stretched out a little more here. His average fastball velocity is +1.2 mph vs. 2012 and ‘13. He has a high 12% swinging strike rate, so his 8K/9 potential is right there. He also has outstanding command against both LH and RH bats. Turner comes in with an elite groundball rate in his career of 52%. This year it’s a point higher at 53%. At age 23 with a 1st-round pedigree and nasty stuff, he is most definitely a pooch worth backing against the reeling and free-swinging Astros.


Pittsburgh @ COLORADO

COLORADO +107 over Pittsburgh

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

For whatever reason, the Pirates are the only team in MLB that has trouble scoring runs at this launching pad. Pittsburgh has been outscored in the first two games of this series 16-2. Previously, they played here last August and got swept, scoring seven runs in three games. That’s five straight losses at this venue for the Bucs, where they have scored nine runs in those five games. Furthermore, this has been a house of horrors for Edinson Volquez. In seven games started at Coors over the last three years, Volquez has allowed 52 hits in 32 innings for a BAA of .362. In those 32 frames, he’s walked 19 batters, surrendered 33 runs and has been tagged for six jacks. His record at Coors in the last three years reads as follows: 1-5 W/L record, 9.19 ERA, .362 oppBA, 2.42 WHIP. He’ll now face a Rockies team is seeing beach balls and that leads the NL in many offensive categories over the past 15 games that include a team batting average of .290 with 19 bombs. Volquez has to be feeling a little anxious about starting here because he basically pitches with the sacks full every inning before getting rocked. Should the Pirates really be favored based on their own and Volquez’s performances here recently? We think not.

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LineCatchers

The Padres and Braves have split their first two games of this series and Sunday sees two lefty’s go head to head in Atlanta. Eric Stults gets the nod for the Padres and has had an awful season up to this point in 2014. He is 3-12 in 20 starts and ranks 4th worst in the NL with a 5.00 ERA and 3rd worst with a lofty 1.46 WHIP. Stults has struggled even more in his 11 starts away from San Diego, going 0-8 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Stults has given up 20 HR in 2014 and ranks worst in the NL in terms slugging percentage against with .496.

The Braves give the ball to Mike Minor, who has been roughed up to the sound of 12 ER on 21 hits over 9 IP innings in his last two outings. Minor is 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 8 starts away from Turner Field this season. Just like Stults, Mike Minor gives up a lot of HR with Minor surrendering 10 homers in eight starts at home in 2014.

Although the Padres have been cold with the bat in 2014, they have hit a purple patch recently by hitting .282 and averaging over 5 runs per game over the last week. The Braves are just 3-14 (.214) with RISP in the opening two games of this series and have left 18 runners on base. I like both teams to put runs on the board tonight and with the goal at 7.5, I see great value in taking the Over in this match up.

San Diego Padres / Atlanta Braves Over 7.5

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SleepyJ

How do you think the Dodgers are going to treat Peavy? When a pitcher has been traded away, i like to play against if i think we have some value. Let's face it. Peavy is a grinder and a baller but has a horrible record. I don't think he is that bad in reality. I do however think the Dodgers with Ryu on the mound at a price of -102 is a gift. Dodgers are playing well in SF. The Giants have struggled to hit the ball the last 4 games. I think SF can wake up the bats against Ryu but i dont think Peavy can silence this Dodger team. Dodgers are looking for a sweep here and to spoil this debut for a guy they can really take advantage of..I dont mind going against a guy making a move to another team. I'll be happy to back Puig, Ramirez & Ryu tomorrow.

Play LA Dodgers -102

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NonStopSportsPicks


2* Colorado Rockies +105

We can't back Volquez at Coors, even against the beat up Rockies. Volquez is 0-6, with a 12.00 ERA in 7 starts against the Rockies. And opposite of him is Morales, who I actually like and he should eat up 6 or so innings today. Plus, the Pirates aren't hitting. And if they couldn't hit Matzuk or Anderson, I'm definitely not going to think they're going to hit Morales. In the end, the Rockies are hitting, the guys who are injured are giving other guys chances to step up, and I think the Pirates are going to get rolled today.

If you want my thoughts on other games, I DO like the UNDER tonight in the MLB game with it being Peavy's first start against Ryu...I see that one going UNDER. And I also like the Reds today +110. But the Reds aren't hitting well right now, and I can't take Latos to pitch like Cueto did yesterday. So what I'm going to do is play the afternoon games, then if we're up...I will play the UNDER tonight for 2*. This WON'T be an official play or one we'll track for records, but my job is to help us make money...and if we're up after the 3 afternoon games, I will play the UNDER on the Giants/Dodgers game.

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Sports Cash System


extra bonus system for today:


Miami Marlins +105 over the Houston Astros (Bet Level 1) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 2:10 PM EST - Early Play ALERT

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Wagner grand slam

Over atlanta