7-30-14

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This pitcher is dynamite on short rest
Stephen Campbell

Houston Astros starter Dallas Keuchel has no problem pitching on short rest. In fact, he excels on it.

In Keuchel's last eight outings on four days of rest, the Astros are 7-1. That's the case for the 26-year-old when he and the 'Stros host the Oakland A's in the Lone Star State Wednesday.

BetOnline currently has the Athletics as -157 faves with a total of 8.5.

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Simon, Reds dominating teams with losing records
Stephen Campbell

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Alfredo Simon is on fire against teams with sub .500 records. In Simon's previous 10 outings against clubs with losing records, the Reds are a perfect 10-0.

The 33-year-old will be on the mound when the Reds host the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks (46-60) Wednesday. BetOnline currently has Cincy as -113 faves with a total of seven.

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Brewers ice cold with Gallardo on the bump
Stephen Campbell

The Milwaukee Brewers have not been getting the job done behind starter Yovani Gallardo lately. The Brew are winless in the Mexico native's last six starts.

They'll try to turn things around when Gollardo gets the ball Wednesday versus the Tampa Bay Rays in the Sunshine State. According to BetOnline, the Rays are currently -174 faves on the moneyline with an O/U of seven.

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Phils, Mets trending Over in New York
Stephen Campbell

The Big Apple has been a source of offense in recent matchups between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, evidenced by five out of their last six meetings at Citi Field going over the total through Tuesday.

The two clubs will face off again in New York Wednesday afternoon. The Mets are presently -147 faves on the moneyline with a total of 7.5, per BetOnline.

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MLB

National League

Diamondbacks-Reds
Miley is 3-1, 3.51 in his last four starts.
Simon is 0-2, 6.75 in his last two starts.

Arizona lost ten of its last fifteen road games.
Reds lost nine of their last eleven games overall.

10 of last 14 Miley starts stayed under the total.

Nationals-Marlins
Roark is 3-0, 1.29 in his last three starts.
Hand is 2-1, 2.19 in his last four starts.

Washington lost four of their last six games.
Marlins won nine of their last ten games.

Six of last eight Roark starts went over total.

Phillies-Mets
Kendrick is 2-4, 6.70 in his last seven starts.
Wheeler is 1-0, 1.69 in his last five starts.

Phillies won four of their last six games.
Mets won eight of their last ten home games.

Ten of last fourteen games at Citi Field went over the total.


Rockies-Cubs
Anderson is 1-0, 0.68 in his last two starts.
Wood is 0-3, 9.24 in his last five starts.

Colorado lost 14 of is last 15 road games.
Cubs lost nine of their last thirteen games overall, but won last two

Under is 4-1-1 in Anderson starts this season.

Cardinals-Padres
Kelly is 1-1, 6.27 in his last four starts.
Hahn is 6-1, 1.67 in his last seven starts.

St Louis won six of its last nine road games.
Padres lost three of their last four games.

Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Cardinal road games.

Braves-Dodgers
Wood is 1-2, 4.60 in his last five starts.
Greinke is 3-2, 2.60 in his last five starts.

Atlanta won three of its last four games.
Dodgers won 13 of its last 18 home games.

Over is 3-1-1 in last five Wood starts.

Pirates-Giants
Morton is 0-1, 5.21 in his last three starts.
Lincecum is 4-2, 2.14 in his last six starts.

Pittsburgh won five of its last seven games.
Giants lost 21 of their last 27 home games.

Five of last six Morton starts stayed under total.


American League

Angels-Orioles
Richards is 7-1, 1.66 in his last ten starts.
Gausman is 1-2, 4.50 in his last five starts.

Angels won four of their last six games.
Baltimore won six of its last eight games.

Ten of last fourteen Angel games stayed under total.

Mariners-Indians
Hernandez is 3-0, 1.56 in his last seven starts.
Kluber is 3-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.

Mariners lost five of their last seven games.
Cleveland lost seven of its last nine games.

11 of last 12 Seattle games stayed under the total.

White Sox-Tigers
Noesi is 3-1, 3.96 in his last four starts.
Scherzer is 4-1, 2.21 in his last six starts.

White Sox won four of their last five games.
Detroit lost eight of its last twelve games.

Three of last four Noesi starts stayed under the total.

Blue Jays-Boston
Buehrle is 0-6, 5.00 in his last nine starts.
Workman is 0-3, 7.50 in his last three starts.

Blue Jays won nine of their last eleven games.
Red Sox lost seven of their last eight games.

Five of last seven Buehrle starts went over total.


Bronx-Texas
Kuroda is 2-0, 3.96 in his last four starts.
Lewis is 0-3, 11.85 in his last three starts.

Bronx lost four of its last six road games.
Rangers lost 32 of their last 39 games overall.

Eight of last ten Kuroda starts stayed under total.

Twins-Royals
Hughes is 2-4, 5.95 in his last six starts.
Duffy is 0-2, 1.83 in his last three starts; Royals gave him four runs.

Minnesota lost seven of last 11 games, but is 6-1 in last seven on road.
Royals won five of their last seven games.

Eight of last ten Minnesota games stayed under.


A's-Astros
Hammel is 0-3, 8.53 in three starts for Oakland.
Keuchel is 1-4, 5.89 in his last six starts.

A's won five of their last seven games.
Astros lost eight of their last ten home games.

Over is 16-8 in last 24 Houston games.


Interleague games

Brewers-Rays
Milwaukee lost last six Gallardo starts (0-1, 4.86).
Price is 6-0, 1.50 in his last six starts.

Milwaukee lost eight of last ten road games.
Tampa Bay won eleven of its last twelve games

Eight of last nine Milwaukee games stayed under.

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Kendrick 9-11; Wheeler 9-12
-- Miley 11-11; Simon 15-5
-- Roark 11-9; Hand 3-4
-- Morton 10-11; Lincecum 13-8
-- Anderson 2-4; Wood 11-10
-- Wood 5-8; Greinke 12-9
-- Kelly 3-3; Hahn 6-2

-- Hammel 10-7/0-3; Keuchel 10-9
-- Noesi 8-8; Scherzer 15-6
-- Hernandez 15-7; Kluber 13-9
-- Richards 15-6; Gausman 6-3
-- Buehrle 14-7; Workman 2-6
-- Kuroda 10-11; Lewis 8-10
-- Hughes 13-8; Duffy 6-9

-- Gallardo 9-12; Price 14-8

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Kendrick 11-21; Wheeler 6-21
-- Miley 5-22; Simon 5-20
-- Roark 4-20; Hand 1-7
-- Morton 3-21; Lincecum 7-21
-- Anderson 1-6; Wood 5-21
-- Wood 6-13; Greinke 5-21
-- Kelly 1-6; Hahn 2-8

-- Hammel 5-20; Keuchel 5-19
-- Noesi 3-16; Scherzer 6-21
-- Hernandez 3-22; Kluber 5-22
-- Richards 4-21; Gausman 2-9
-- Buehrle 5-21; Workman 5-8
-- Kuroda 7-21; Lewis 6-18
-- Hughes 4-21; Duffy 3-15

-- Gallardo 6-21; Price 8-22

Umpires
-- Az-Cin-- Last five Cooper games stayed under total.
-- Wsh-Mia-- This is first MLB game for May; I've got nothing on him.
-- Phil-NY-- Last five Meals games went over the total.
-- Col-Chi- Seven of last nine Little games stayed under.
-- Pitt-SF-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Culbreth games.
-- Atl-LA-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Wendelstedt games.
-- StL-SD-- Four of last five Rackley games stayed under.

-- Chi-Det-- Favorites won six of last eight Timmons games.
-- Sea-Clev-- Six of last eight Carapazza games stayed under.
-- LA-Blt-- Last eleven Danley games stayed under total.
-- Tor-Bos-- Underdogs won 11 of last 14 Wegner games.
-- NY-Tex-- 10 of last 15 Kulpa games stayed under total.
-- A's-Hst-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Blaser games.
-- Min-KC-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine Schrieber games.

-- Mil-TB-- Favorites won six of last seven Tumpane games.

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play WED

Angels w/ Richards -135

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2Halves2Win

MLB COMP

MIL @ TB

Rays -1.5 RL

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Nationals on Tuesday and likes the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

The deficit is 408 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo had to sweat a little but ultimately prevailed Tuesday night with the Yankees, whose triumph cut the nasty number to 1,435 kneppers.

Wednesday: Mr. Aitch will get busy with some afternoon delights, starting off in Cincy, moving on to Houston and ending the odyssey in San Fran — 10 units apiece on Simon, Keuchel and Lincecum.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Pirates +105

Mariners/Indians under 6.5

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MLB

'Baseball Road Dogs'

For the most part, baseball bettors are far more likely to bet the favorite rather than the underdog. The oddsmaker knows this and has a tendency to inflate the line presenting value with underdogs. Keep in mind, just because a team is favored does not mean the club will win every time. The baseball season is a long, grueling one and there are days when teams don't give their best efforts, ace pitchers have an off day, relievers implode, hitters slump and/or costly errors are made. A study of this season's baseball road underdogs shows the group winning only 44.9% of the games but increased betting accounts by +$3102. Since betting each and every road underdog is rather unrealistic we broke it down by line ranges to see which performed the best. Road Dogs in the lower range (< $1.50) had 'Lot's of Byte' winning 46.7% of the time (362-413) stuffing +$2322 into betting accounts. Road Dogs with some bite were found in the $1.50 to $1.70 range as they won at 43.3% clip (69-90) cashing +$1925 worth of tickets. But, Big Dogs higher than $1.70 were 'All-Bark-No-Bite' posting a 23-54 mark depleting accounts by -$1145. A few betting nuggets found within the 'Lots-of-Bite' sweet spot. Road dogs in the range which loss it's previous road game and playing a division foe were 75-63 (54.3%) the next outing rewarding backers with +$2664 at the betting window. Road Dogs from the sweet spot which suffered a 2 run or less defeat the previous game were 93-93 next time out (+$1724) split between 38-42 (+$316) playing within the division, 38-42 (+$1408) outside the division which includes 9-12 (-$131) in interleague action.

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EZWINNERS

4 STAR SELECTION

(979) Milwaukee Brewers +$161

(Risking $400 to win $644) (Action)


3 STAR SELECTION

(958) San Francisco Giants -$115

(Risking $345 to win $300) (Action)


2 STAR SELECTION

(975) New York Yankees -$160

(Risking $320 to win $200) (Action)

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | SEATTLE at CLEVELAND
Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts
78-41 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.5% | 35.0 units )
8-6 this year. ( 57.1% | 1.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | SEATTLE at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 45-16 (+27.6 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.4)

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Today's MLB Picks

LA Angels at Baltimore

The Orioles look to follow up last night's 7-6 victory in the series opener and come into tonight's contest with a 5-1 record in Kevin Gausman's last 6 home starts against teams with a winning record. Baltimore is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 30 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at NY Mets (12:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.550; NY Mets (Wheeler) 14.617 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia 1; 8 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+135); Over

Game 953-954: Arizona at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 16.438; Cincinnati (Simon) 13.599 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 8 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 7 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over

Game 955-956: Washington at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 14.977; Miami (Hand) 15.753 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130); Over

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 16.496; San Francisco (Lincecum) 13.614 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over

Game 959-960: Colorado at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Anderson) 12.824; Cubs (Wood) 14.224 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120); N/A

Game 961-962: Atlanta at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Wood) 16.283; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 17.877 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-155); Under

Game 963-964: St. Louis at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 14.666; San Diego (Hahn) 16.205 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-130); Over

Game 965-966: Oakland at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Hammel) 16.324; Houston (Keuchel) 14.755 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Oakland (-165); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-165); Over

Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Noesi) 13.426; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.441 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-235); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-235); Over

Game 969-970: Seattle at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.903; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.462 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-125); Under

Game 971-972: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 14.639; Baltimore (Gausman) 15.935 Dunkel Line: Baltimore ;by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over

Game 973-974: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 15.893; Boston (Lester) 14.737 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 8 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+145); Under

Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.657; Texas (Lewis) 15.543 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 9 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+135); Over

Game 977-978: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hughes) 16.655; Kansas City (Duffy) 14.438 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 7 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-165); 8 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Under

Game 979-980: Milwaukee at Tampa Bay (12:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.793; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.040 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-185); 7 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-185); Over