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HOT CHICKS PICKS / Britney DeLuca
Take Tampa Bay and Milwaukee to fly OVER 7!
Take Tampa Bay and Milwaukee to fly OVER 7!
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Wednesday’s Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
Mariners at Indians – 7:05 PM EST
Probable Pitchers:
SEA: Hernandez (11-2, 1.99 ERA)
CLE: Kluber (10-6, 2.77 ERA)
Series recap: The Mariners took care of the Indians on Tuesday, 5-2, thanks to a four-run fourth inning. Seattle cashed as +105 underdogs to even the season series at 2-2 with Cleveland, while all four meetings have finished ‘under’ the total.
What to watch for: The Indians have fallen apart of late, dropping seven of their past nine games, while their starting pitchers have lasted five innings or less five times in this span. The Mariners continue to pitch well, cashing the ‘under in eight consecutive contests. Seattle owns a 6-1 record in Hernandez’s last seven road outings, while the former Cy Young winner shut down Cleveland at home last month in a 3-0 victory.
Angels at Orioles – 7:05 PM EST
Probable Pitchers:
LAA: Richards (11-3, 2.62 ERA)
BAL: Gausman (4-3, 3.67 ERA)
Series recap: The Orioles walked off past the Angels in 12 innings thanks to a Manny Machado solo homer, 7-6 to cash as +125 home ‘dogs. Both teams went back-and-forth in the exciting series opener, as the O’s have now beaten the Halos three of four times this season.
What to watch for: Baltimore has compiled a 3-1 record in Gausman’s last four home outings, while winning four of his previous five starts in the underdog role. For the first time all season, the Angels have dropped consecutive starts by Richards, both as a short favorite against the Tigers and Mariners. However, Los Angeles is 9-2 in Richards’ 11 road outings this season, while the Angels own a dynamic 9-1 record in their last 10 Game 2’s of an away series.
Blue Jays at Red Sox – 7:10 PM EST
Probable Pitchers:
TOR: Buehrle (10-7, 3.19 ERA)
BOS: Workman (1-3, 4.13 ERA)
Series recap: The Jays continued their recent domination of the Red Sox, beating Boston for the fifth time in the past week with last night’s 4-2 triumph. Even more impressive than that streak is Toronto’s perfect 5-0 record this season at Fenway Park, as the Jays have outscored the Sox, 38-13 in Beantown.
What to watch for: With Jon Lester scratched due to a possible trade, the Sox turn to Workman, who has lost each of his past four starts. Toronto has won nine of its past 11 games, but the club owns a dreadful 1-6 record in its previous seven Game 3’s of a road series. The Sox have dropped seven of their last eight contests, while scoring just six runs in the past four games.
Braves at Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST
Probable Pitchers:
ATL: Wood (7-8, 3.44 ERA)
LA: Greinke (12-6, 2.74 ERA)
Series recap: The Dodgers rallied for an 8-4 victory last night after trailing early, 4-2. Los Angeles cashed as -140 home favorites to win four straight games for the first time this season. Prior to Tuesday, the Dodgers had won three consecutive contests seven times in 2014, but never managed to capture four straight victories before last night.
What to watch for: Los Angeles is 6-2 when Greinke starts at Chavez Ravine, while the right-hander split a pair of starts against Atlanta last season. Wood has alternated between the starting rotation and the bullpen for the Braves, but the southpaw has won just once in his past five starts away from Turner Field. Atlanta has done a solid job of rebounding following a poor pitching effort, compiling a 6-2 record the past eight games after allowing at least six runs.
Cardinals at Padres – 10:10 PM EST
Probable Pitchers:
STL: Kelly (2-1, 3.90 ERA)
SD: Hahn (6-2, 2.12 ERA)
Series recap: The Padres put up just three runs, but that was enough to knock off the Cardinals, 3-1 on Tuesday night as -115 home favorites. San Diego improved to 8-3 in its past 11 games at Petco Park, while moving to 5-2 in its previous seven home matchups with St. Louis since 2012.
What to watch for: Since losing his Major League debut to Pittsburgh, the Padres have won six of Hahn’s last seven starts, including consecutive road underdog triumphs over the Dodgers and Braves. Kelly struggled in his last outing against the Cubs by allowing five earned runs and eight hits in less than five innings of a 7-6 defeat. Last night’s loss dropped St. Louis to 5-6 on the road against NL West foes this season, while scoring two runs or less for the sixth time in this span.Comment
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DIAMOND DOG SPORTS
#956: Marlins: +130 (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Roark/Hand
#965/966: Athletics/Astros: Under 8.5 (-125) (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Hammel/KeuchelComment
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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
MLB Game: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Time: Wednesday 07/30 12:40 PM Eastern
Pick: Washington -153 (moneyline)
The Miami Marlins played as an improved team from a year ago, and have recently caught fire. They have won six straight games as an underdog. That may sound like a hard and difficult path to go against, but over the last 10 years a team that has won six consecutive games as an underdog have met with an ugly fate as they carry a -12.4% ROI if you choose to play on them and go with the hot hand. That rises to -14.3% if they are a dog again, which is the case here. And they are just 1-5 if they are a home dog. The Nationals have been great in the role of a road favorite where they are 57-28 in their last 85. This one goes against the hot team, so play on Washington.Comment
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MARC LAWRENCE
ESPN MLB Wednesday Night Knockout LA Angels MLComment
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SCOTT SPREITZER
Day Dog Milwaukee Brewers ML
Afternoon Annihilator Washington Nationals MLComment
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Greg Shaker
Colorado +109Comment
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Spartan
St Louis +108Comment
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GC: MLB Play
Hump day Triple pack has the MLB Game of the Week with a 31-1 Power angle, the 5* 95% Road warrior system and a totals system that has won 19 of 22 times. Free plays 19-6 run. MLB Afternoon system Play below.
On Wednesday the free MLB System Play is on Oakland. Game 965 at 2:10 eastern. Oakland fit a league wide system that has cashed 11 straight times and plays on road favorites of -140 or more that scored 5 or more runs in their last game if they were a road favorite of -190 or higher and are taking on a team off a loss. The A/s are a solid 11-2 this year as a road favorite off a road win where they scored or more runs. They have also won 5 of 6 as a road favorite from -150 to -175 and are scoring 6 runs per game the past week. In games where the total is 8 to 8.5 they have won 23 of 31. Houston is 16-56 in July the past few years and have dropped 10 of the last 12 vs winning teams. Today they have Keuche on the mound and he has a 1-3 record and 6.23 era vs Oakland. The Athletics counter with J. Hammel who has won 3 of 4 vs Houston with a 1.69 era allowing just 4 runs in 21 innings against them in his last 3 starts. Look for Oakland to take another from Houston. On Wednesday their are 3 Big MLB power system plays up led by the 31-1 MLB Power Angle Game of the Week and a 5* Road warrior 95% system play as well as a 19-3 totals system. Get on now and cash all 3. For the free play take Oakland. GCComment
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Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Money Line
dime bet – 970 CLE (-105) vs 969 SEAComment
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DHayes2
1* St Louis Cardinals ML+100Comment
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Andre Gomes | MLB Money Line
953 ARI (+107) vs 954 CIN
Analysis:
MLB – 953 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 954 Cincinnati Reds
(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs. A. Simon)
Catching Wade Miley against this Reds offense @plus money is a valuable bet IMO, and I’m just pulling the trigger…
I’ve made a play w/ ARI in Miley’s last start that was lost (it wasn’t even close)!
“Wade Miley has been outstanding lately! His stats line in this month says it all: .194 BA / 2.20 FIP / 2.50 xFIP / 26.6% K% & 4.6% BB! Wow! Note that he has faced CHC, SF & ATL in his L3 starts and these 3 teams are pretty decent vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #5, #12 & #7, and still, Miley did pretty well against them! PHI offense is ranked just #23 and they are prone to be K’ed quite a lot (ranked #20 in the season w/ 21.1% K%), so I expect Miley to be decent tonight.”
Bad days happen and I expect him to bounce back today against a CIN offense that is ranked #22 OPS vs. LHP’s, is batting .186 BA in L10 games vs. LHP’s and has a putrid mark of 25.7 K% – ranked #29 in the league!
On the other end, Alfredo Simon is primed to regress a bit in this season half, and this regression process has already started because he struggled in his L2 starts coming off the All Star break! His 2.86 ERA mark does not go well alongside w/ 4.06 SIERA / 4.33 FIP & 3.97 xFIP numbers!
I have Wade Miley way above Alfredo Simon in my Power Rankings, and w/ the way the Reds are struggling offensively lately, I’m taking the Diamondbacks in here as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ W. Miley) @ +107
MLB – 955 Washington Nationals @ 956 Miami Marlins
(Starting Pitchers: T. Roark vs. B. Hand)
I think that we are getting some value w/ WAS especially in the first 5IP’s of the game, as I expect Roark to “outpitch” Brad Hand. The Nationals lost the first 2 games of the series w/ both of them being decided late in the games, so there will be some sense of urgency from them today since the start.
T. Roark has been outstanding lately w/ 3 consecutive great starts in which he allowed 1ER in each game & a nice 17/2 K/BB ratio to show. MIA is ranked #29 in K% (23.3%) for the season and lately things haven’t change at all as MIA is ranked #25 w/ 23.8% in K% in the last 14 days. Roark has some nice K’s numbers w/ 7.07 K/9 in this month, so MIA is a good matchup for him.
On the other end, I’ve faded B. Hand in his last start (took the OVER) vs. HOU, but he performed quite well. Actually, his L2 starts were good vs. SF & HOU but these two teams are struggling offensively as of late. WAS is a top 10 offensive team vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #8 w/ .744 OPS.
While Hand might had the “factor surprise” working for him in those two starts, this won’t happen in here as WAS has already faced him twice this season w/ good results w/ 5 & 3 runs scored!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 First 5 IP’s Washington Nationals (-0.5) (w/ T. Roark) @ -110Comment
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Bob Balfe
Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 8.5
Buehrle/Workman
Mark Buehrle has been awful in his last few starts giving up a ton of runs while this Bluejays team is scoring a ton of runs. Workman has been subpar as of late and this total really should be higher. I feel like one of these teams has the ability to beat the total themselves. Toronto's bats have been hot and a total under 9 is great value in this spot. Let's just cheer for scoring. Take the Over.Comment
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HOT CHICKS PICKS / Britney DeLuca
Take Tampa Bay and Milwaukee to fly OVER 7!
Take PHILADELPHIA +135 to take a bite out of the big apple!
Take CLEVELAND +105 to force the M's to re-route!Comment
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JOSH DANIELS
3* Arizona Diamondbacks MLComment
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