7-30-14

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Dave Aquino
Today's Selections


MLB: NY Mets, Detroit, Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino

Today's Selections

MLB: NY Mets, Detroit, Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BookieMonster

Play of Day:
Padres -115

Money Generator Plays:
Arizona +100
Pittsburgh +105
Cleveland -105

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GiLzTips

. [966] HOU/OAK UNDER 8.5 (-120) *S*

. [972] BAL/LAA UNDER 8 (+100) *S*

. [954] CIN/ARI UNDER 7 (+100) *S*

. [969] Mariners ML (+100) = [2]

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INDIAN COWBOY (MLB)

5* Oakland A’s ML-147

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Sportswagers

Pittsburgh @ SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh +111 over SAN FRANCISCO

Posted at 11:20 AM EST
3:45 PM EST. The Pirates have won the first two games of this series while outscoring the Giants 8-2. San Fran has now dropped six in a row and they have scored one run or less in five of those games. Overall the Giants have scored six runs in their last six games. Backing a favorite that is seeing golf balls can’t be recommended and the Giants don’t get much of a break here in facing Charlie Morton. Talk about Charlie Morton and you’ll probably end up talking about Roy Halladay. The backstory is simple enough: Morton was bad, and he wanted to not be bad, so he went to a new delivery that looked a lot like Halladay’s. People chuckle, because Halladay simply had one of the best pitcher peaks ever, while Morton’s was just a guy on a team. But ignore the Halladay angle and it’s clear that Morton has turned himself into something. Since changing his delivery, Morton increased his four-seam fastball velocity by five mph from 2012 to 2013, the highest increase of any SP in MLB. He also has one of the highest groundball rates in the game at 55%. Morton has one of the best curveballs in the NL (16% swing and miss rate) and his 3.38 ERA on the year is supported by his xERA of 3.42.

Walks and an elevated hr/f are the difference between now and the glory days for Tim Lincecum. His K’s/9 by month has seen a progressive drop of 9.5, 8.8, 6.3, which is explained by his declining velocity per month of 92.3 MPH in April followed by, 90.4 in May, 90.2 in June and 89.8 in July. Lincecum comes in with an ERA of 3.96 and an xERA of 3.62. There is no question that’s he’s still a serviceable starter but a three-year skills decline and a lot of miles on his 30-year-old arm says he’s becoming too much of a risk as a favorite. Hot versus cold (Pirates have scored 41 runs in their past seven games) gets the call.

Our Pick
Pittsburgh +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)

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Sportswagers

L.A. Angels @ BALTIMORE
L.A. Angels -1½ +125 over BALTIMORE

Posted at 11:20 AM EST
Kevin Gausman has allowed one earned run or less in six of his nine starts, but his skills haven't kept up with the results, as he has only three pure quality starts in nine attempts. He also has three disasters in those nine starts. The lack of skill support thus far makes him a high risk in a home matchup with the Angels. In five home starts, Gausman has a 4.33 ERA, with only a 14/10 K/BB ratio in 27 IP. The Angels have the league's best road OPS at .774.

The Orioles are 13 games above .500 and if they go on to win the division and do more damage in the playoffs, they will become one of those ESPN 30/30 features. It’s actually mind-boggling how a team this bad can win so many games. Baltimore’s best starter is who? Its best starter (whoever that is) couldn’t crack the rotation on 25% of the teams in this league. Its worst starter and there’s not much difference between first and worst, would be in the minors on 50% of the teams in this league. They’ve done it with offense you say? Uh, no they have not. As a team they are hitting .259. Over the past 20 games the Orioles are hitting a major-league worst .203, which is the exact same BA of the Cincinnati Reds over that same span. Yet the Reds, with a rotation that is about a million times better than the Orioles rotation has lost 10 of their past 12 games. Baltimore’s W/L record is a direct result of luck and fluke and the ability of several hitters to go deep. When this team does not hit a home run or two or three, they do not score runs and that bodes well here for Garett Richards. In 137 frames, Richards has been taken yard just four times. Richards has added more strikeouts and fastball velocity than any other SP from 2013 to 2014. His current 3.09 xERA provides nearly full support to his 2.62 ERA and his skills have been some of the game's best over the last month: 9.9 K’s/9, 2BB/9 and a 57% groundball rate. This will be his first game against the Orioles this season and he pitched only four innings against them last season in three relief appearances. The Orioles are going to get blown out in several games down the stretch and we’re suggesting this is very likely one of them.

Our Pick
L.A. Angels -1½ +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

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Sportswagers

Colorado @ CHICAGO
Colorado +104 over CHICAGO

Posted at 11:20 AM EST.
Travis Wood had some promise coming into this season. A falling ERA and a nice dominant start/disaster start split were signs of a young pitcher figuring it out, right? Maybe so but Travis Wood’s fortunate hit %, strand%, and hr/f sure helped. His skills over the past three years show this isn't a special skill set and it’s getting worse. Wood is setting up to be one of the best fades in the second half and we’ll put that to the test here. After a nice 3.52 ERA in April, Wodd’s stats have deteriorated. The biggest culprit has been a terrible monthly control trend of 2.1 BB/9 in April followed by monthly BB/9 of 3.7, 5.2 and 5.8. Over the past month covering five starts and 25 innings, Wood has a brutal groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 33%/31%/36%. Over that same span his WHIP is an eye-opening and alarming 2.01. Travis Wood might be injured and doesn’t want to say so or he’s just completely lost it and/or his confidence. Either way, he’s instant fade material.

Here’s an interesting tidbit: Brett Anderson has spent the equivalent of two years on the disabled list since 2011. That small exposure has him extremely undervalued and we’re all over it. Anderson’s xERA shows that his skills are intact. His hr/f rate and hit% conspired against him in 2013 but that was then and this is now. What we see right now is a guy with an elite 62% groundball rate after six appearances, four as a starter. In his last two starts covering 13.1 innings, Anderson has allowed just seven hits and one run. His line drive rate of 16% this season in 33 innings is the best in the majors but it’s a small sample size so he does not qualify. Still, we would not ignore a guy with a 62%/16% groundball/line-drive split coming off back-to-back gems. Rockies may be the best value on today’s board.

Our Pick
Colorado +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

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ROBERT FERRINGO (MLB)
2-Unit Play. Take #965 Oakland (-140) over Houston (2 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 – Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets (12:10 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)

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Scott Delaney

50 Dime Mariners/Indians Under

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Al DeMarco

15 DIME Los Angeles and Zack Greinke -1.5

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Birdman 5* (104-63) According to pickmonitor
7/30 7:05PM Los Angeles Angels (G. Richards) vs Baltimore Orioles (K. Gausman)
5.00 Units: [971] Los Angeles Angels -121

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Jeff clement

7* arizona +105
8* washington -150
8* la angels -128

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS (MLB)

6* LA Dodgers ML

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BEHIND THE BETS

Atlanta Braves +160

Chicago Cubs -113