8-9-14

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BeatYourBookie

SATURDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play San Francisco +110 over Kansas City (MLB TOP PLAY)

San Francisco is 50-34 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
San Francisco is 33-23 in road games this season
San Francisco is 10-3 vs. AL Central Division Opponents


10* Play Washington -110 over Atlanta (MLB TOP PLAY)

Washington is 39-24 when playing in the month of August
Washington is 64-39 in road games when the line posted is -100 to -150
Washington is 109-82 vs. division opponents the last three seasons


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5* Play Detroit -110 over Toronto (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Tampa Bay -120 over Chicago Cubs (MLB BONUS PL

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Kyle's Pick(s)

2 UNIT = Cleveland Indians @ N.Y. Yankees - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-115)

Listed Pitchers: Kluber vs. McCarthy

(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)

There was a huge price swing yesterday, as the Giants went from fairly decent favorites to underdogs. They outhit the Royals 12 to 7 but 3 errors did them in. I look to break out of a mini-slump today in New York.
I have featured Corey Kluber numerous times recently and for good reason. I don't feel as if his success this season has been a fluke. He knows that if he can keep this up and carry it into next season a big pay increase will be on the horizon. He's been great against some really good offenses, such as the Tigers and Blue Jays, so Kluber has earned every bit of what he's accomplished. He enters this afternoon with a 2.55 ERA, which equals his ERA on the road, 2.55. His latest starts are dazzling and showcase why he is the hottest pitcher in the majors today. In Kluber's last three starts he has pitched for a 0.36 ERA, 0.51 WHIP, and .149 OBP. After handicapping all season long, I think that is the best stretch of numbers I have come across without a doubt. Brandon McCarthy since coming over from the Diamondbacks has made himself feel right at home quickly in Yankee Stadium. In five starts with the Yanks he's given up 1, 1, 1, 4 and no runs. All of his quality starts coming at home. He has a perfect 3-0 record in New York and averaging just over a run per game with an ERA of 1.02. Interesting pitching matchup here that has two of the hottest pitchers in the majors dueling off. McCarthy's first start as a Yankee was against the Indians, where he held them to only 1 run. With statistics on our side I'll be taking the UNDER 7.5 for early Saturday afternoon.

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Kevin's Pick(s)

The Astros scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to go up by 2 runs, but gave one back in the top of the ninth. We split our picks as they won but couldn't cover the run line for a nice payout for us. Today I'll be in Toronto taking in a game between the Tigers and the Blue Jays. It should be a great game with two solid starters going at it. My play for tonight comes in the last game of the night...

2 UNIT = Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners - MARINERS -1.5 (+135)

Listed Pitchers: Noesi vs Paxton

(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.70 units)

The Mariners have won 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8 overall. They are 61-54 on the season and 30-31 at home. The White Sox have dropped 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 games overall to fall to 55-62 on the year and 26-34 on the road. This series started on Thursday night and so far the Mariners have won the first two games by a combined score of 17-4. The White Sox have scored just 5 runs over their last 4 games. Hector Noesi will be on the mound for Chicago and he is 6-8 with a 4.97 ERA, .271 OBA and 1.45 WHIP. On the road he is 2-4 with a 5.36 ERA, and although he had a good start his last time out, he had a 5.50 ERA in July. James Paxton will take the mound for the Mariners and the southpaw is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA over his first 3 starts. So far batters are hitting just .175 against him. Note that the White Sox are just 9-23 in their last 32 road games vs a left handed starter, and 1-4 in Noesi's last 5 road starts. The Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-1 in their last 5 as a home favorite, and 4-0 in Paxton's last 4 starts. Seattle is also 4-1 in their last 5 home meetings vs the White Sox. Look for the Mariners to continue to roll tonight - I'm taking them by 2 or more at a nice +135 price.

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Northcoast

3* Pitt +3

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RICH SPORTS

NFLX

3* Giants -2.5

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BEN BURNS

CFL BEST BET!
Ottawa

10* Personal Favorite! *First 10* Of Season!*
Tennessee Titans (pk)

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LineCatchers

This match up consists of two teams in very different situations. The Browns have everything to prove in 2014 and ail be looking to start that tonight in Detroit. The Lions behind new HC Jim Caldwell will sit a lot of regulars on Saturday night.

Brian Hoyer will start at QB tonight but I fully expect Johnny Manziel to play several series’ with the starters later on in the game. With Cleveland keeping their starters in the game for a longer period of time to give Manziel a chance to work on things he has learned in the off season, the Browns own a huge advantage tonight.

In NFL Pre-Season games, I always see value in teams with a point to prove and teams who have players battling for starting jobs. I believe the Browns fit that role tonight and will cover the (+1) spread.

Cleveland Browns + 1

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Bestbetpick - Josh Daniels

2* Orioles

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Newworldinsiders

NFLX

Detroit Insider: Over 39 Cleveland Browns/Detroit Lions


MLB

New York Insider: New York Yankees +100

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Washington @ ATLANTA

Washington -108 over ATLANTA

(Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

Tanner Roark has a 2.40 ERA at home this year and road ERA of 3.49. Thing is, he’s pitched much better on the road with a BAA of .221 with a BB.K split of 11/59 in 69.2 innings. Right-handed bats can't touch Roark’s slider. Over his last five starts he’s 4-1 with a 2.36 ERA and a BB/K split of 5/27 in 34 innings Roark is showing plenty of positive signs in his first full MLB season. He's tossed only two disasters all year and his command is in excellent shape. Increasing the strikeout total would be his next step and he’s getting closer with an increasing swing and miss rate of 10% over the past month. Roark should be viewed as a reliable starter moving forward and certainly a better option than Aaron Harang.

Harang gets this home start in this NL East showdown, as the Braves continue to try and shake off the effects of their disastrous road trip. Harang was not terribly effective in either of his two starts on that trip, and his 1H/2H skills split suggests that he is running out of gas after his hot start. his Apr-Jun skills were decent but since July 1 they’ve been horrible. Given the importance of the game to the Braves, Harang likely won't be left in long enough to take a serious pounding but when the promise of a quick hook is one of the only points in favor of the matchup, it's not a good sign.


Cleveland @ N.Y. YANKEES

Cleveland (1st 5 innings) -105 over N.Y.Y

(Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)

The Indians pen has been used extensively over the past four games so we’ll eliminate that and play Corey Kluber in the first five innings. All Kluber has done is put up some of the best numbers in the game over the entire season. In 166 innings, he has 177 K’s. Over his last five starts covering 40 innings, he has a BB/K split of 5/40 to go along with an elite 52% groundball rate. Kluber is the real deal facing a Yankees lineup that scares nobody.

Brandon McCarthy attracted very little attention when he was a Diamondback but he’s turned into a New York sensation almost overnight. The first couple of starts in his new digs, McCarthy’s strong performances didn’t really open any eyes because any pitcher can get hot for a start or two but after defeating the Tigers in his fifth start, the accolades started flying in his direction. McCarty has been the talk of baseball since that last start. He’s being interviewed by local media, radio stations and he’s being told that he was the shot in the arm that the Yankees needed badly. He now becomes a prime “sell-high” target. McCarthy has posted very good skills since coming over but let us remind you that New York is his sixth team in eight years and the only time his ERA was under 4.00 was when he pitched for Oakland for two years in that pitcher’s haven. Now that all the attention in the world has been thrown his way, it would come as no surprise if he blew up. Besides that, McCarthy can’t and should NEVER be favored over Kluber.


Miami @ CINCINNATI

CINCINNATI/Miami over 8 +104

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

Miami is taking a flyer on another veteran pitcher, Brad Penny. The last time Penny had positive results at this level was in 2007 and he's not pitched since the 2012 season, a year in which he posted an ERA of 6.11 and a 1.82 WHIP. Penny does have a chance of a resurrection because he’s just 36-years old but in 2012 he had a swinging strike rate of 5% and this is two years later. If Penny returns to anywhere near his old form, it won't be a total surprise, as he did so after being traded from Boston to San Fran in 2009. In a November 27th interview, Penny attributed his poor performance to a sore shoulder and limited recovery time outside of the offseason. There may be some truth to that but it doesn’t explain his 2011 5.38 ERA, his 4.88 ERA in 2009 or his 6.27 ERA in 2008 and all of those were in pitchers parks with the exception of 2009 when he pitched for Boston. Penny did make seven starts in the minors before this flyer and went 2-4 with a 3.05 ERA. Not bad, but this isn’t the minors and Great American Ballpark is not the best place for an old arm to make its first start in two years in. If Penny throws a beauty, good for him, we’ll send him a card but the more likely scenario is that he gets lit up for three or four runs and doesn’t make it past five innings. Oh, by the way, Penny makes Bartolo Colon look like Twiggy.

Then there’s the case of Alfredo Simon. After going almost three years without a MLB start, this 33-year-old career reliever has a 12-7 record, a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 22 starts. Fact or fluke? Simon has been helped by plenty of good luck (25% hit rate, 78% strand rate). His xERA of 4.19 points to some serious regression and that xERA is 5.84 over his last four starts. Simon’s BB/K split of 35/85 in 138 innings shows good control but also shows he’s not fooling anyone. Simon's age and skill profile cast doubt that he can finish strong and we’re also seeing serious signs that he’s running out of gas. Over his last four starts, covering 21 innings, Simon’s BB/K split was 7/10. On July 9, Simon defeated the Cubs to run his record to 12-3 with an ERA of 2.70. Four starts later he’s 12-7 with an ERA of 3.09. The regression continues here.


CFL

We're passing on Saturday's Calgary/Ottawa matchup.

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Smart Sports Investments / SSIwins


NFLx 7:30 pm Cleveland Browns 110 for 2 units


NFLx 7:30 pm New York Giants -125 for 3 units


MLB 1:05 pm Cleveland Indians at NY Yankees - Under 7 for 3 units


MLB 4:05 pm Tampa Bay Rays -135 for 3 units


MLB 7:10 pm Kansas City Royals -130 for 3 units

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DANNY B

Detroit Tigers ML

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GOODFELLA

Saturday Night MLB Team Total
KANSAS CITY ROYALS - OVER 3.5 RUNS

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Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Money Line

dime bet – 961 COL (+101) vs 962 ARI

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Will Rogers

1* St. Louis