8-11-14

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Mon

Tigers w/ Verlander -125

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Game of the Day: Tigers at Pirates

Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates (+102, 7.5)

The Pittsburgh Pirates own the best home record in the National League but have lost two in a row at PNC Park as they prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on Monday in the opener of a four-game, home-and-home set. The Pirates scored five runs in dropping two of three to San Diego over the weekend and continue to struggle with injuries to reigning National League MVP Andrew McCutchen and second baseman Neil Walker. The Pirates won three of four versus Detroit in 2013 - two by 1-0 shutouts.

Adding left-hander David Price at the trade-deadline to give Detroit three consecutive Cy Young Award winners has yet to yield the expected results. The Tigers have dropped five of seven after blowing a five-run lead in Sunday's 19-inning marathon loss in Toronto. Detroit's lead has dwindled to one-half game over surging Kansas City atop the American League Central and its vaunted pitching staff took a hit when starter Anibal Sanchez and reliever Joakim Soria went on the disabled list Sunday.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, FSN Detroit, ROOT (Pittsburgh)

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Pirates as +109 home dogs, but that has since moved to +102. The total has held at 7.5.

INJURY REPORT: Tigers - RP Joakim Soria (Day-to-day, oblique), LF Andy Dirks (Indefinitely, back). Pirates - 2B Neil Walker (Indefinitely, back), CF Andrew McCutchen (Indefinitely, ribs)

POWER RANKINGS: Tigers (-196), Pirates (-182)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "It appeared former Detroit ace, Justin Verlander, was over the hill with a poor start this season, however he has actually started to pitched better recently. Verlander has a mediocre 4.57 ERA in his 24 starts this season, but it is misleading as Verlander had two awful outings in mid-June in which he allowed 14 runs in just 11.2 innings (10.80 ERA). Since then, Verlander has allowed three runs or less in seven of his past nine starts with a more respectable 3.90 ERA during that span." Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Detroit a -125 favorite. Verlander is starting to pitch much better recently posting a 2.86 ERA during his last three appearances. Locke, on other hand has 6.16 ERA his last 3 starts." Mike Perry.


PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Justin Verlander (10-10, 4.57 ERA) vs. Pirates LH Jeff Locke (3-3, 3.78)

While Verlander's days as a dominant ace appear to be over, he has turned in four consecutive quality starts but has alternated wins and losses in that span. A pair of solo homers were the only runs Verlander allowed over seven innings in a loss at the New York Yankees on Wednesday. He has an overpowering track record against the Pirates, tossing a pair of complete games and winning all four of his starts while compiling a 1.97 ERA.

Locke rebounded from back-to-back losses - both on the road - to beat Miami last time out, surrendering three runs (one earned) in seven innings for his first win in a month. He has been victimized by the long ball of late, yielding eight in his last four starts after giving up only three in his first eight turns. Locke, who held Detroit scoreless for 5 1/3 innings last year, is 2-1 with a 0.93 WHIP in seven home starts.


TRENDS:

* Tigers are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Tigers are 4-0 in their last four interleague games.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Locke's last six starts overall.

CONSENSUS: 59.15 percent of wagers are backing the Detroit Tigers.

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Mets hot versus Phillies when Niese gets the start
Andrew Avery

The New York Mets have posted a 4-0 record versus the Philadelphia Phillies when pitcher Jonathon Niese gets the start for the Mets.

Three of those starts have come this season, where Niese brings a personal record of 1-0 and a 2.57 ERA into Monday's start versus the Phils. The Mets have won those three starts by scores of 6-1, 5-4 and 4-3.

Niese and the Mets are currently -118 road faves for the afternoon game. David Buchanan will get the start for the Phillies.

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Weather info you should know for Monday
Andrew Avery

Monday's weather forecast does not look promising for a couple of cities as both Pittsburgh and Atlanta could be hit with some thunderstorms.

Forecasts are calling for a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms, which will increase to 70 percent as the game progresses. The Pirates open an interleague series versus the Detroit Tigers from PNC Park Monday.

Elsewhere, Atlanta could be hit by some rain as well. Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent possibility of thunderstorms which dampen the meeting between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.

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MLB roundup: Tigers place Sanchez, Soria on DL
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The Detroit Tigers placed right-handed starter Anibal Sanchez and reliever Joakim Soria on the 15-day disabled list Sunday.

Sanchez has a right pectoralis major strain. The move is retroactive to Saturday.

Soria has a left oblique strain.

The club will call up Robbie Ray to start Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates in place of Sanchez, who is 8-5 with a 3.53 ERA this year.

Sanchez could miss at least three weeks. He left Friday night's game against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth inning with a strained muscle in his right side.

Soria, who was recently acquired from the Texas Rangers, left Saturday's game with a strained muscle in his left side after warming up before the 10th inning. He is 2-4 with a 3.58 ERA with 17 saves (all with the Rangers). He was the Rangers' closer but is in a setup role with the Tigers. Soria is 1-1 with a 10.38 ERA in six games with Detroit.


---The Los Angeles Dodgers placed shortstop Hanley Ramirez on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right oblique. The move was made retroactive to Saturday.

The Dodgers recalled infielder Darwin Barney from Triple-A Albuquerque.


---Los Angeles Angels left-hander Tyler Skaggs will have Tommy John surgery and may be sidelined through the 2015 season, the team announced.

Skaggs was recently placed on the disabled list with a flexor strain.

This year, the 23-year-old is 5-5 with a 4.30 ERA in 113 innings. Skaggs was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of a three-team trade involving the Chicago White Sox that sent outfielder Mark Trumbo to Arizona.


---The Cleveland Indians placed outfielder David Murphy and first baseman/outfielder Nick Swisher on the 15-day disabled list. Murphy has a right abdominal strain and Swisher has right knee soreness.

The club recalled outfielder Tyler Holt and infielder/outfielder Zach Walters from Triple-A Columbus.



---Colorado Rockies right fielder Carlos Gonzalez was placed on the 15-day disabled list with left knee tendinitis and a right ankle sprain. He was removed in the seventh inning of Friday's game and did not play Saturday.

Left-hander Brett Anderson will see a spine surgeon in Phoenix on Monday after an MRI performed on his lower back found a bulging disk between the L4-L5 vertebrae, the team announced. Surgery is a possibility and it seems certain Anderson will not pitch again this season.



---Minnesota Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe was out of the lineup after fouling a ball off his left ankle in the first inning off Saturday night's game against Oakland. X-rays were negative, and he is day-to-day.

"He's really sore," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said.


---The Chicago White Sox optioned left-hander Eric Surkamp to Triple-A. Surkamp had an ERA of 7.11, and right-hander Matt Lindstrom is scheduled to come off the disabled list this week.


---The Boston Red Sox recalled left-hander Edwin Escobar from Triple-A Pawtucket and optioned right-hander Heath Hembree to Pawtucket.


---The Chicago Cubs made a couple of roster moves before the game, activating right-hander Jacob Turner (acquired from the Miami Marlins on Friday) and right-hander Neil Ramirez (15-day DL with triceps soreness).

To make room, the Cubs sent left-hander Chris Rusin to Triple-A Iowa and put right-hander Brian Schlitter on the 15-day DL (retroactive to Aug. 9) with right shoulder inflammation. The Cubs haven't yet settled on a plan for Turner, although he figures to be used in relief for now.


---The San Francisco Giants recalled first baseman Adam Duvall, who leads the Pacific Coast League with 26 home runs and 84 RBIs.

The Giants optioned outfielder Juan Perez to Triple-A Fresno.


---Texas Rangers right-hander Derek Holland pitched three scoreless innings in his third rehab start for Double-A Frisco on Saturday night, allowing three hits while striking out four on 49 pitches. Holland has allowed four runs in six innings over three rehab starts for Frisco and Triple-A Round Rock.


---Houston Astros outfielder George Springer remains in a holding pattern regarding his reinstatement from the 15-day disabled list. Springer felt discomfort in his left quad following a workout Saturday, and his status remains day-to-day.


---Milwaukee Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said injured right-hander Matt Garza has not resumed throwing and likely will need more than 15 days on the disabled list. Garza landed on the disabled list retroactive to Aug. 4 because of a strained left oblique.


---The Philadelphia Phillies claimed right-hander Jerome Williams off waivers. Williams pitched for the Rangers and Astros this season, going 2-5 in 28 games (two starts) with a 6.71 ERA.

Right-hander Sean O'Sullivan was designated for assignment to make room for Williams on the roster.

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River City Sharps

3 Units Minnesota Twins -110

The Minnesota Twins pitching rotation will get a boost on Monday night as they give the ball to lefty Tommy Milone, who they recently acquired from the Oakland Athletics. Tonight's game will also most likely be the return of Twins All Star Joe Mauer, who has missed the last 34 games with an injury. The Houston Astros give the ball to Brad Peacock, who has been absolutely brutal for these Astros over his past three starts. Peacock (3-8, 5.44) is 0-3 with a 16.00 ERA over his past three starts and also lost a decision to these Twins earlier this year. The Astros are just 3-14 in Peacock's last 17 starts when the Astros have lost the previous game and 0-8 when Peacock is off 4 days rest. The Twins have enjoyed some decent recent success against losing teams on the road, posting a 4-1 mark in their last five road games in that spot. For us, Peacock is just a "play against" and people need to look at Milone's track record before he was traded from the A's, where he had posted a 6-0 record with a stellar 2.62 ERA in the 11 starts previous to the trade. We think Milone make things very hard on the home team here tonight and the Twins hit Peacock hard.

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GAMBLING GOD

League: MLB
Team A: Yankees
Team B: Orioles
Pick: Yankees moneyline
Risk:$100 to win $127
Time: 4:00 PM PT

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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

MLB | OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
Play Against – Home teams (KANSAS CITY) poor power team (<=0.9 HR’s/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR’s/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
119-74 since 1997. ( 61.7% | 48.2 units )
7-6 this year. ( 53.8% | 1.2 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends– FoxSheets

MLB | NY METS at PHILADELPHIA
NY METS are 10-2 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was: NY METS (5.2) , OPPONENT (3.0)

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Totals 4 You MLB Service Selections for Monday, August 11th

August's Major League Bases Revenge Total of the Month!!!!!
Detroit/Pittsburgh over 7 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Tuesday's MLB Report Free of Charge!!!

MLB Best Bets
Los Angeles/Atlanta over 7
Colorado/San Diego under 6 1/2
Tampa Bay/Texas over 9
Minnesota/Houston over 8 1/2

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Cappers Access

Mets -130
Pirates Even

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Tampa Bay/Texas under 9

Oakland/KC under 7

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Ray Monohan

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins

Monday 5* FREE MLB Play

5* St. Louis Cardinals +105

The Marlins are not nearly the juggernaut at home they were earlier in the season. I am encouraged that they avoided the sweep down in Baltimore and like that starter Shelby Miller is dealing well now - just 5ER in his last three starts, 2 of them on the road. The Marlins are not terrible but they are not viable for the playoffs either.

They have pretty much cooled since their run that drew them close to the Braves.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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bookiemonsters

POD MIA -105

NYY +115
PIT +100

FREE PLAY CHC -105

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Worlds Worst Picker

Philadelphia Phillies

Chicago Cubs

Colorado Rockies

Tampa Bay Rays

Pittsburgh Pirates

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

N.Y. Yankees @ BALTIMORE

BALTIMORE -1 +107 over N.Y. Yankees

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

A couple of weeks ago we wrote about how the Orioles have defied logic for most of the year with a weak starting rotation and an offense that had been running cold for most of the year. However, the Orioles bats have really come to life recently with outputs of 7, 9, 10 and 12 runs scored in four of their past seven games. The Orioles average of 5.2 runs scored per game in August leads the majors. They also lead the majors in home runs with 147, which is 40 more jacks than the Yanks have belted out. This offense now gets a crack at Chris Capuano. Frequent Flier programs were invented for guys like Chris Capuano. After two years with the Dodgers, he signed with the Red Sox in the offseason. After being released in July, he was picked up by Colorado, and was being stretched out in the minors to serve as a starter. He was then traded to the Yankees, where he now finds himself as a starter in the midst of a pennant chase. While Capuano may now have time to unpack, he’s unlikely to be a difference-maker for New York. While he usually has good control, he’s been uncharacteristically wild this year. Capuano’s strikeout rate looks good (46 in 51 innings) but his swinging strike rate of 7% indicates that he may not be able to maintain it for long. Additionally, this year's K rate spike has come primarily in relief work, before his recent move to the NYY rotation. Of Capuano’s 51 innings pitched this year, 32 have come in relief, usually one inning or less. While he’s done better the past couple of years, he’s had issues with fly balls during his career. This could be an issue in this hitter’s park against this home-run hitting team. The litany of pitcher injuries the Yankees have faced this year has essentially forced them to give Capuano a chance at this point and all we can say is that all those other teams in need of starters can’t all be wrong, can they?

Speaking of defying logic, how about the Yankees? The Yanks are five games over .500 with a garbage team that no GM in baseball would trade for his own. No reliable starters, an offense that has two consistent hitters in Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardiner (Yanks 4, 5 and 6 hitters are batting .230, .245. and .175 respectively) and two backup catchers with Brian McCann out with a concussion. The Yanks are a collection of aging vets and castoffs. Over their last four games they have been held to one run or less three times with all them occurring at Yankee Stadium (+33% LH HR; +16% RH HR). Bud Norris has held the opposition to one run or less in five of his past eight starts. Norris has had a steady 2014 season thus far, with a 50%/5% dominant start/disaster start split in 19 starts. At Camden Yard he is 4-2 with an ERA of 2.61 (xERA of 3.32). Over his last four starts covering 24 frames, Norris has 24 K’s and a 47% groundball rate. All of his skills are trending the right way. Lastly, once the Orioles starters get through six innings, it’s lights out for the opposition with Andre Miller (27 hits in 47 innings), Darren O’Day (33 hits in 51 innings) and Zach Britton (37 hits in 58 innings) coming in to form what has been the deadliest trio in the majors since the All-Star break. Lay the 1½-runs if you like but we’ll play it safer and spot a run.