8-11-14

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MLB Early-week betting cheat sheet: Felix, fatigue bad news for Jays

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the early-week major-league games:

'Dogs Have Their (Sun)Day

The underdog play was a strong one on a weird Sunday in the major leagues. Underdogs went a staggering 10-5 SU, a trend that included victories by Minnesota (+162), the Chicago Cubs (+144), Toronto (+144) and Colorado (+143).

Felix + Fatigue = ?

The Blue Jays could be in tough Monday night as they open a three-game series against Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners (-194, 6.5). Toronto made the cross-continental trip after playing 19 innings against Detroit on Sunday, and that fatigue factor could push the line higher in favor of Seattle.

Road Warrior Adam

St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright will look to continue his road dominance Tuesday as he faces the Marlins in Miami. Wainwright has been one of the best pitchers away from his home park this season, going 9-3 with a 1.32 ERA and just one home run allowed over 95 2/3 innings.

Pitching Notes

* Detroit Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander will try to cure his recent road woes Monday as he tangles with the host Pittsburgh Pirates (+102, 7.5). Verlander is 1-4 SU in his last five starts away from Comerica Park, though he has recorded five straight Unders in that span.

* Interleague play has agreed with Chicago White Sox lefty Chris Sale, who faces the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday night. Sale is perfect in 14 apperances (six starts) against the National League, going 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 53 2/3 innings.

Hitting Notes

* Philadelphia second baseman Chase Utley will be at a decided disadvantage Monday as he faces off against Jonathon Niese and the New York Mets (-118, 8). Utley has just three hits - all singles - in 28 career at-bats against Niese.

* A pair of Chicago Cubs are looking forward to Tuesday's matchup with Milwaukee Brewers hurler Wily Peralta. Starlin Castro is 10-for-21 with a pair of home runs in his career versus Peralta, while Anthony Rizzo is 8-for-19 with four homers and nine RBIs.

Totals Streak

New York Mets (5-1-2 O/U): The Mets continue to be the league's pushiest team - leading the majors with 13 - but have become a strong Over play of late, having allowed five or more runs in four of their last eight games. New York is 52-53-13 O/U for the season.

Prop of the Day

The Mariners are +325 to win by more than three runs, and Hernandez alone makes this a viable betting option. The sensational right-hander has made 15 consecutive starts of seven innings or more with two earned runs or fewer allowed - a major-league record.

Injury Notes

* St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina has had the cast removed from his surgically-repaired right thumb and can begin light baseball-related activities. The Cardinals are 12-12 SU, 15-9 O/U and -68 units since Molina suffered the thumb injury just over a month ago.

* The Minnesota Twins will activate Joe Mauer from the disabled list in time for the opener of a three-game set Monday against the host Houston Astros (+101, 8.5). Mauer has missed the last 34 games with a strained oblique; the Twins are 14-20 SU, 16-18 O/U and -330 units in his absence.

Weather Watch

* Fans at Citizens Bank Park will be treated to winds blowing out to left field at 11 mph for Monday's showdown between Philadelphia and the visiting Mets. Philadelphia went 6-1 SU and 2-4-1 O/U in seven games under similar conditions a season ago.

* Citi Field will see wind blowing out to left field at 11 mph for Tuesday's showdown between host New York and the Washington Nationals. Teams combined to average 2.04 home runs in 26 games with the wind blowing out to left in 2013 - above the stadium average of 1.84.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Weekly Dollar Special

Jack Jones

2014-08-16 (5 days)

MLB Premium Picks

Top Pick

MLB	Aug 11 ,2014	7:10p	[953] St. Louis Cardinals [954] Miami Marlins	St. Louis Cardinals -105 at Pinnacle
20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -105 The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves two games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for first place in the NL Central. They will be motivated for a victory Monday as they take on the Miami Marlins (57-60), who return from a long road trip. That first game home after a long trip is usually tough for players for family reasons. After getting a two-week break from St. Louis' rotation, Shelby Miller has come back a different starter. He has gone 1-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.589 WHIP in three starts since that break. He allowed one run and four hits to Boston his last time out. Tom Koehler is having a solid season for the Marlins, going 7-9 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 23 starts. However, in his lone career start against St. Louis last year, Koehler gave up nine runs and two homers over 4 2/ 3 innings of a 7-13 home loss on June 15. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Miller's last four starts as a road favorite. The Marlins are 18-37 in their last 55 vs. National League Central opponents. Miami is 0-4 in Koehler's last four starts vs. NL Central foes. The Marlins are 7-16 in Koehler's last 23 starts vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings and 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in Miami. Bet the Cardinals Monday.

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Kevin's Pick(s):
A run short of the over yesterday afternoon for myself. Kyle hit his second straight winner, but doesn't have anything going for today.
2 UNIT = New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles - UNDER 8.5 RUNS (-112)
Listed Pitchers: Capuano vs Norris
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.79 units)
The Yankees and Orioles will start an important series tonight in Baltimore. New York sends Chris Capuano to the mound who is 1-2 with a 3.91 ERA, .263 OBA and 1.42 WHIP on the season. Over his last three starts he has allowed just 6 earned runs against in a combined 19 innings of work. His latest outing was his best as he went 6.2 innings giving up just 5 hits and 0 earned runs with 8 strikeouts. The Orioles will have Bud Norris on the mound who is 9-7 with a 3.68 ERA, .251 OBa and 1.26 WHIP. He has been solid since the All Star break with a 2.63 ERA over 4 starts, and at home this year he is 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA, .247 OBA and 1.20 WHIP. New York scored 10 runs on Friday, but in their three other games since Thursday they scored a combined 2 runs. The UNDER is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games overall, 8-1 in their last 9 as an underdog, and 5-1 in their last 6 vs a right handed starter. The UNDER is 20-8 in the Orioles last 28 divisional games, 8-2 in their last 10 vs a left handed starter, 4-0 in Norris' last 4 home games and 7-1 in his last 8 starts overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in these two teams last 6 meetings overall as well. I'm on the UNDER.
Kyle's Pick(s)

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Doc's Sports

2014-08-16 (5 days)

MLB Premium Picks

MLB	Aug 11 ,2014	8:10p	[965] Minnesota Twins [966] Houston Astros	Houston Astros +101 at Pinnacle
3-unit Play Take #966 Houston Astros over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) We couldn't get there with the Houston Astros yesterday, but that won't discourage us today as this team has made us quite a bit of money in 2014 playing them in certain spots. The Astros are slowly but surely improving as a ballclub as they continue to bring up top-level talent from their minor league system. Their offense is has made huge strides and they know have a nice top five in their order with some power. They'll play a Twins club that is going backwards fast after a decent start to the campaign. They are 8-14 since the All-Star break and now sit at the bottom of the AL Central. Their offense is right on par with the Astros, as they are nothing special but are getting better. I also don't care much for either of today's starting pitchers. Brad Peacock has been a disaster on the mound la tely, getting shelled in two recent starts. Tommy Milone was just traded to the Twins from the A's two weeks ago. Milone had a decent ERA but was fortunate in getting there. I've never liked his game and don't think he'll fit that well with the Twins. This one can really go either way, so we'll gladly take a plus price on the home team. Go Astros.

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Jimmy Boyd

2014-08-16 (5 days)

MLB Premium Picks

MLB	Aug 11 ,2014	1:05p	[951] New York Mets [952] Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies +117 at 5dimes
3* MLB Early Bird Oddsmakers Error on Phillies + The Phillies are showing excellent value as a home underdog against the Mets Monday afternoon. There's a great chance that Philadelphia's offense will put up a big number against the struggling Jonathon Niese, who has an awful 5.68 ERA and 1.368 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Niese has simply not been the same pitcher since returning from the DL. I'll take my chances on the Phillies with a red-hot David Buchanan taking the mound. Buchanan is 2-1 with a 3.26 ERA a 1.086 WHIP over his last 3 starts and hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in each of his last 7. Great system in play that's telling us to fade the Mets. Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs are just 18-41 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Phillies. Take Philadelphia!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play San Diego -140 over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)

Colorado has lost 92 of the last 145 games when playing as an underdog of +125 to +175 and they have lost 31 of the last 53 games when playing on a Monday.Colorado has lost 37 of the last 56 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and they have lost 92 of the last 150 games coming off three or more straight road games.

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50* Play St. Louis -110 over Miami (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Tampa Bay -115 over Texas (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play New York Mets -120 over Philadelphia (MLB TOP PLAY)

Philadelphia is 26-36 when playing as a home underdog of +100 to +125
Philadelphia is 57-76 in day games the last three seasons
Philadelphia is 25-40 coming off an OVER the total in their last game



10* Play Tampa Bay -115 over Texas (MLB TOP PLAY)

Texas is 19-44 when playing as an underdog of +100 or higher
Texas is 26-42 when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs
Texas is 21-33 in home games this season

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5* Play New York Yankees +135 over Baltimore (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Pittsburgh +110 over Detroit (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

MONDAY BASEBALL

• Play Pittsburgh +110 over Detroit----Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)

7:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh has won 43 of the last 73 games coming off a loss by four or more runs and they have won 31 of the last 51 inter-league games. Pittsburgh has won 98 of the last 170 home games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less and they have won 50 of the last 81 games after scoring four runs or less in three straight games.

• Play Tampa Bay -115 over Texas----Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)
  8:00 PM EST

Texas has lost 26 of the last 35 games when playing in the 2^nd half of the season and they have lost 17 of the last 20 home games when playing as an underdog of +100 or higher. Texas has lost 38 of the last 59 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have lost 31 of the last 49 games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* New York Yankees +110

50* St. Louis Cardinals -105

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golazoprediction

ICELAND: Pepsideild - Round 15

Fjolnir - Breidablik

Over 3 AH

Odd: 1.90

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FEZZIK’S FOCUS

I’m going into a neighborhood I don’t like to drive in, playing

970 SEA -202 for the Focus Play of the day.

Give me King Felix vs. a Toronto team off that NEVER beats David Price, but just did, off 19 innings, then to the Airport flying cross country to get to Sea. CAN THEIR BE A WORST SPOT??

I KNOW this is unpopular to say, but I don’t need to find some “silly” -200 other favorite to parlay this into to make me feel like I’m not laying -200. I am VERY HAPPY to just lay -200 (which I have to do in a parlay anyways), with a team I’m SURE would win in this situation over 2/3 of the time.

Also with a total of under 7, I have ZERO desire to sweat out -1.5 in my bet. I don’t need Sea to be up 2-1 after 6 innings and stare at a Sea -400 line, BUT I’m losing vs. the -1.5 line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFFREY JAMES

(Play of the Day)

#972 Pittsburgh Pirates with Locke +100 (7:05 edt)

The Tigers are in a very bad spot here after coming off of a 19 inning loss yesterday in Toronto. They are really struggling lately and now only have a half game lead in the division. Verlander has been nowhere near his Cy Young self from a couple of years ago. Look for the Pirates with Locke to take advantage and get this win here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

MLB

2* (956) Braves -$162

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Now, let's get to today's official system bet! For today on August 11 we have the following bet:
Atlanta {A} bet - Official MLB system bet!
All the best,
Tony the sports betting "Champ"

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Dodgers, Braves open 4-game set Monday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox


LOS ANGELES DODGERS (67-52) at ATLANTA BRAVES (60-57)

First pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Line: Atlanta -165, Los Angeles +155, Total: 7

Two storied franchises, the Dodgers and Braves, begin a four-game series at Turner Field on Monday night.

Los Angeles has gone 13-9 (.591) since the All-Star break to take a solid 4.5-game lead over the Giants in the NL West. The Dodgers were nearly swept in Milwaukee this weekend though, and after their offense mustered up a measly four runs over the first two games, they were saved by ace Clayton Kershaw who went eight strong inning (6 H, 1 ER, 6 K’s) in the 5-1 victory on Sunday. Despite some offensive struggles, 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.269 BA) has found his stroke and is 9-for-14 with three doubles, two home runs and 7 RBI over his past four contests. Atlanta had lost eight straight games -- all of which were on the road -- going into its weekend series against the NL East-leading Nationals, but was able to take 2-of-3 games in the return home, trimming the division deficit to 3.5 games behind Washington. The Braves' 3-1 win in the rubber match on Sunday was a microcosm of what they have done to be successful as the starting pitching of Alex Wood (7.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 12 K’s) saved a below-average offense which is third-worst in the league in runs scored (437). 1B Freddie Freeman (.288 BA) has been a bright spot in their lineup, especially in the past four games where he's 8-for-15 with two doubles, a homer and 4 RBI. Newly acquired RHP Kevin Correia (5-13, 4.94 ERA) will toe the rubber for L.A. in this one, while Atlanta counters with flamethrowing, 23-year-old RHP Julio Teheran (10-8, 2.92 ERA). The Dodgers have done much better on the road this year with an MLB-best record of 37-25 (.597), but will have a tough time against the Braves who are an excellent 33-25 (.569) at Turner Field. These two clubs met just a two weeks ago (July 29-31) when L.A. swept three games at home to push its record in this series over the past three years to 11-9, but Atlanta holds the 5-3 edge at Turner Field during this timeframe. Some trends bettors may want to consider in this game include that the Braves are 87-49 (.640) under manager Fredi Gonzalez after having lost 4 or 5 of their previous six games, but the Dodgers are a stellar 35-8 (.814) versus an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the past two years. Los Angeles’ offense may be thin on Monday though with OF Yasiel Puig (back) questionable and SS Hanley Ramirez (side) on the 15-day DL. The one injury to watch for on Atlanta is SS Andrelton Simmons (ankle) who is questionable for the contest.

Kevin Correia has had a long career with 344 games pitched (213 starts) at the major-league level, and the Dodgers are hoping that he can provide just enough depth when needed. He’s never been an ace by any terms of the word and has over a 4.15 ERA in each of the past five seasons. With a pitiful 4.2 K/9 this year, Correia is by no means a strikeout pitcher, but has solid control (2.2 BB/9) and has done a pretty good job keeping the ball in the ballpark with 13 homers allowed over 129.1 frames (0.90 HR/9) with the Twins. Correia had quality starts in his final two outings with Minnesota as he combined to pitch 12 innings while allowing five runs (4 ER) and striking out seven with only one walk. In his 12 career games (8 starts) against the Braves, Correia is 3-3 with a 4.20 ERA and dreadful 1.62 WHIP, while allowing six home runs in 45 innings of work. When he last faced Atlanta on May 20, 2013, the right-hander was tagged for five runs on eight hits in just four innings of work. OF Justin Upton has been great against the veteran in his career, as he is 16-for-44 (.364) with four doubles, 1 HR and 2 RBI. Overall, the players in Atlanta’s lineup have combined to go 38-for-108 (.352) against the righty with 13 extra-base hits (.500 SLG). SS Andrelton Simmons is the only player to really struggle versus Correia, going hitless in five at-bats. The Dodgers’ bullpen has gone 12-18 this year with a 3.68 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, while converting 35-of-45 (78%) save chances. Closer Kenley Jansen (3.00 ERA, 32 saves) has struck out 14.1 batters per nine innings on the season and is 32-for-36 (89%) in his save opportunities.

Julio Teheran has been great in his second full season at the big league level and ranks in the top-10 among NL pitchers in all the major pitching categories. He's 2nd in innings (163.1), 3rd in complete games (3), 4th in WHIP (1.07), 8th in strikeouts (146) and 10th I ERA (2.92). He is striking out 8.0 batters per nine innings on the year and has shown amazing control (2.0 BB/9) for such a young pitcher. Teheran has been lucky though, benefiting from hitters having a .268 BABIP, which is well below the league average of .298 BABIP. He’s lasted at least seven innings in seven of his past 10 outings, and has allowed two or fewer runs in five of those starts. He did very well against the Dodgers two outings ago on July 31, tossing eight innings while allowing only two runs on five hits with nine strikeouts with three walks in a losing effort. In his one other career start against L.A. in last year's playoffs, Teheran was bombed for six runs on eight hits and six runs in just 2.2 innings. No player on L.A. has more than four at-bats against the youngster, and as a team they are 7-for-30 (.233) with three extra-base hits (1 HR) and eight strikeouts when facing him. OF Yasiel Puig was the player to take Teheran yard in their last matchup, but the Dodgers may not miss their other injured star, SS Hanley Ramirez, who went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts against the right-hander. The Braves relievers are 17-20 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP this season, and have successfully converted 41-of-51 (80%) saves. Craig Kimbrel (1.91 ERA, 34 saves) has been mowing down batters at an incredible rate (15.1 K/9) while allowing one home run in his 47 innings of work (0.19 HR/9).