8-12-14

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Tuesday 32-3 MLB Blowout system + 9-0 Late night system snacker are the lead plays. MLB 7* Top play cashes on Baltimore on Monday. free MLB Totals Play below.



On Tuesday the free MLB Totals system play is on the over in the Washington at NY. Mets game. Rotation numbers 903/904 at 7:05 eastern. The Mets return home after taking 3 of 4 in Philadelphia and have been potent at the plate of late. Washington comes in off a day off here after losing to Atlanta. This game fits a totals system that has cashed to the over around 80% of the time as road favorites with a totla of 8 or less coming in off a road loss where they scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits and are taking on an opponent off a road win that scored 5 or more runs with 1 or less errors have averaged 10 runs per game. The Mets have called up R. Montero Replacing J. Degrom who has been placed on the DL With Shoulder tendinitis. Montero was mediocre in his handful of outing early on allowing 13 runs in 19 innings, he will have his hands filled tonight taking on the Nationals who have had the Mets number of late. Washington counters with D. Fister who has pitched over in 3 of his last 4 August road starts. In the series these two have posted overs in 10 of the last 13 in the series and that is what we will recommend tonight. On Tuesday the lead plays are the 32-3 blowout system and a 9-0 Late night snacker system. Congrats to those who Jumped on the MLB Game of the Year winner on Baltimore. Tonight we do more damage with the most Powerful data in the industry. For the free play take the Nationals and the Mets to go over the posted total. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Rogers

Twins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAMBLING GOD

League: MLB
Team A: Nationals
Team B: Mets
Pick: Over 7.5
Risk:$100 to win $105
Time: 4:00 PM PT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS


Chicago -115 over SAN FRANCISCO


In a different venue we would play the White Sox spotting 1½-runs but the total in this game is 6, prompting us to lay the cheap price on Chicago. San Fran has lost four in a row and five of its past six. Over their past 20 games, the Giants are hitting .232. Ryan Vogelsong has a 3.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 12 home starts. He’s coming off back-to-back gems against the Mets and Brewers in which he surrendered just two runs combined (one ER in each start) over 15 innings. None of it makes sense. Vogelsong is just one of those guys, like Jared Weaver and others that have been outpitching their skills for years. Vogelsong significantly outpitched his skills during his 2011-12 resurgence but this season his skills are actually worse. Over his last 30 innings, Vogelsong’s swing and miss rate is 5%. He has an overall 38%/38% groundball/fly-ball split but that, too, has dropped slightly to 36%/39% since the All-Star break. Vogelsong has been greatly aided by an 82% strand rate, a 0.7 hr/f and pitching half his games at AT&T Park. Those numbers are unsustainable and it should be noted that Vogelsong has a 4.37 road ERA to go along with a .286 BAA. Vogelsong is not a relevant pitcher. Wagering on him is a dart throw and he’ll now face a White Sox team that you may be surprised to learn, is leading the majors with a BA of .288 over the past 20 games.


The South Side has lost 63 games this year. Chris Sale has lost two games. That’s how dominant he’s been but he’s not priced as such. Sale has a BB/K split of 22/138 in 122 innings. He’s allowed one run or less in 10 of his past 15 starts and two runs or less in three more. The White Sox have won 12 of his 18 starts and he’s left tied or with the lead in 16 of his 18 starts. Over his last 27 innings, Sale has whiffed 36 batters. Shall we go on? No need to. Chris Sale has been to the AL what Clayton Kershaw is to the NL and now we get to play this ace at a cheap price with his team hitting well.




Boston +116 over CINCINNATI


Mat Latos has been as steady as any starter over the past few seasons with a sub-3.50 ERA every year from 2010-13. He's continued that trend in 2014 (3.12 ERA in 66 IP) despite missing the first two months with knee and elbow injuries. All is well, right? While all may seem well on the surface, there are several troubling signs. The huge drop in Latos’ strikeout rate (42 K’s in 66 IP) is of primary concern, and it's supported by falls in both swinging-strike rate and average fastball velocity. There's also been a considerable change in batted balls hit off Latos. He's allowing more fly-balls (35%/42% GB/FB split) but a lucky hr/f indicates it hasn't hurt his bottom line .... yet. A fortunate hit rate has also helped keep Latos' ERA down. His xERA sits more than a full run above his ERA, which is never a good sign. It appears that perhaps Latos' elbow issues aren't quite behind him given the falling velocity and strikeout rates. While this may seem like just another great year for Latos, the underlying skills have raised several warning flags that prompt us to step in against him.


The Red Sox just took two of three against the Halos in Anaheim. They played the Cardinals tough in St. Louis in the series prior. Remarkably, it’s been 18 games since the Red Sox have won two in a row but they can snap that anomalous streak here. Joe Kelly makes just his second start for the Red Sox after coming over from St. Louis earlier this month. Ironically, he faced the Cardinals in his first start and threw a seven-inning, 3-hit, one run gem. Kelly has thrown just 42 innings this year because in St. Louis, he was he odd man out on a loaded staff. What makes Kelly so interesting is his elite groundball rate of 58%. It’s a small sample size this year but it’s in line with his career GB rate of 53%. In his last 24 innings over the past 31 days, Kelly has an outstanding groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 58%/16%/26%. He throws in the mid-90s without getting many punchouts, which is a skill in itself but trading strikeouts for groundouts is a strategy that has a lot of upside to it. At Great American Park, we’ll lean to a heavy groundball pitcher taking back a tag against a struggling fly-ball pitcher with alarming under the hood numbers.




Los Angeles +112 over ATLANTA


We’re not too high on Dan Haren, as he’s capable of blowing up in any start but he still has excellent control and is coming off a gem against the Angels. Haren now faces an Atlanta team that is sinking faster than the value of a Bitcoin. Atlanta has two wins over their past 12 games. They’ve been held to two runs or less in seven of those. They were recently swept in San Diego in a three-game set while being outscored 17-6. In what looked like a pitching mismatch in Atlanta’s favor last night (Teheran v Correia) ended with a 6-2 Dodger victory. Now the pitching matchup does not favor the Braves.


Enter Mike Minor. The Braves are hoping that skipping his turn last time through the rotation will give him a chance to regroup but there is nothing in his profile that suggests a turnaround. Since the All-Star break, Minor has made three starts, two against the Padres and one against the Marlins. Over that span, he was tagged for 27 hits and 14 runs in 14.2 innings all at pitcher friendly parks. In those two starts against San Diego, Minor surrendered four jacks in 11.2 frames. Minor has been absolutely whacked in six of his past seven starts and none of them came against potent offenses. Over that span he was torched by Houston, the Mets, the Cubbies, San Diego twice and Miami. Minor’s oppBA is .312 but over his last eight starts it is .352. Dude has surrendered 18 bombs in just 98 innings this year. Minor had seemingly established himself as a solid pitcher after putting up four straight years of xERAs ranging from 3.68 to 4.18. Minor has taken a clear step back with a 5.41 ERA and a 5.15 xERA. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that is battling both his physical ability and confidence. Pitching for a team that is losing frequently and struggling to score runs, Mike Minor is instant fade material as the chalk.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS


Winnipeg +3½ over TORONTO


The Argonauts are attracting some money in this one and we can certainly understand why. First, Toronto has had 11 days to prepare for this one while the Blue Bombers played at home on Thursday against the Roughriders. It’s highly irregular for any CFL team to play so early in the week after playing the previous week and it’s something the players are not accustomed to. Furthermore, the Bombers played an extremely sloppy game against Saskatchewan this past Thursday, turning the ball over five times with QB Drew Willy making one bad decision after another. There’s also the payback angle in play here, as Winnipeg hosted the Argos to open the year and blew them away, 45-21. Finally, the Bombers have always been the CFL’s least popular team. They have been basement dwellers for what seems like forever and they’re usually undervalued. Once again that applies here. Perhaps the situation is stacked against the Bombers but the good news is that they can erase last week’s sloppiness with a crisp and strong performance in this one. The Blue Bombers are 5-2 overall, they’re 3-0 on the road and they reside in the much tougher West. In fact, one can argue that they’ve been so much better on the road than they have at home with victories at B.C., Hamilton and Montreal. Drew Willy had a bad game last week but let’s not forget that he has just seven career starts in this league. Last week was a good lesson for him that he had to learn eventually. Despite losing the turnover battle 5-0 last week to the Riders, Winnipeg lost by just six points. You might watch another 100 games of football in any league before you see another team that has a chance to win it with less than five minutes remaining after being down 5-0 in turnovers.


Meanwhile, the Argos are coming off a 31-5 victory over the Alouettes. That game was 5-3 for the Als for a long time before Toronto scored a late TD just before the half and carried that momentum into the second half. When the game ended, Montreal had gone something like 48 straight possessions without scoring a TD. The CFL average over the past three years is a TD once every 4.6 possessions. Toronto has no running game and that’s the one area the Bombers defense has been vulnerable against. Winnipeg has done an excellent job defending the pass, ranking third in the CFL behind B.C. and Edmonton and the Argos are thin in the receiving corps. Take away the 21 points the Argos scored in the second half against a Montreal defense that has been on the field far too often and the Argos output by half over their last four games (seven halves not including the 4th Q against Montreal last week) is 9, 6, 7, 10, 6, 3 and 10. Andre Durie, Anthony Coombs and Chad Owens remain sidelined. Without that trio, the Argos have the least amount of offensive talent to catch and/or run with the ball than any team in the league. The Rogers Center has no football atmosphere. It’s half empty in weekend games (expect less tonight) with the fans spread throughout, meaning this is a great venue for the Bombers to bounce back in and that’s precisely how we’ll play it. If you’re on board, we would wait until later in the day to make this wager because the money is pouring in on the Double Blue, meaning we may get a better number.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Indians are 10-0 since May 03, 2013 as a favorite when they are off two wins in which they never trailed and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When CJ Wilson starts the Angels are 13-0 since June 14, 2013 as a 140+ favorite if it is not the first start of the season for a net profit of $1300.

CHOICE TREND:

The Yankees are 0-13 since June 10, 2009 as a road dog after a 5+ run loss and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1300 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Wei Yin Chen starts the Orioles are 14-2 since July 14, 2012 at home after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1177.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee lost on Monday in MLB in the American League with the Rangers +$117/Rays.

For Tuesday in Soccer E&B have a totals play Real Madrid and Sevilla Over 3.

"Mr Chalk" has Np in MLB for Tuesday.

Ben lee is 0-1 -$50 for week Forty Two 187-218-5 -$2912 through Forty One Weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 61-45 -$345 for the 2014 MLB season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Under umpire working the plate Tuesday
By ANDREW AVERY

With an Over/Under record of 4-17 when he’s been tasked with calling balls and strikes, you’d be hard pressed to find an umpire that has catered to Under bettors more efficiently than Kerwin Danley.

Danley is scheduled to work home plate at Turner Field as the Atlanta Braves host the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday evening. Oddsmakers have tabbed the matchup with a total of eight.

Only Hal Gibson III (9-17 O/U) and Brian O’Nora (5-17 O/U) have as many games resulting in Unders and only Tony Randazzo (1-11 O/U) has a higher winning percentage for Under bettors among umpires with at least 10 games behind the plate.

According to our umpire stats database, there is an average of 5.77 runs scored per game when Danley is working the plate. That’s the lowest per game total of any umpire with at least 10 games calling pitches.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

USASportsMonitor
Alpha Omega Picks MLB (2nd place in MLB)
LA Dodgers +115
Texas +115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsAtari

Tampa Rays ML


Risking 5.83 to win 4.78 units



Tampa is the team you want to back against the Rangers today. It might not be a 7-0 winner like yesterday but they’ll be in control of this one if they continue playing much better than they have earlier in the season especially compared to the pathetic Texas Rangers. Tampa has only given up 3 runs or less in their last 7 games while Texas has allowed 4 or more in 10 of 17 games while losing 24 straight when they give up more than 3 in a game. The Rangers rank 29th in ERA (4.81) compared to the Rays sitting at the #11 spot (3.58).

Hellickson is 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA and limited the A’s to only 1 run and 2 hits through 7 innings last Wednesday. This is our pitcher for tonight who’s only given up 1 run or less in 3 of 4 starts resulting in wins for his team and bettors backing the Rays with him on the mound,

Nick Tepesch is 4-7 with a 4.46 ERA. He’s given up 6 home runs in 5 starts and the Rangers are 1-4 in his last 5. The Rangers are losers of 13 out of 19 and 37 of 48. Take the Rays on the moneyline.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EAGLE EYE SPORTS
RANDY ROSE

Your Pick: Seattle Mariners (-121) Risking: 5.00 Unit(s)
Your Pick: Miami Marlins (+138) Risking: 5.00 Unit(s)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

3* Take Minnesota -7.5 over Los Angeles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UNDER Umpire Streakers


#905 UN 8 -115 LAD/ATL 1.15u to win 1.00u
Danley 4ov/17un L21gms 81.0% (A very strong under umpire...the team leaning more to over but we are taking. Take at your own risk.)

#921 UN 8.5 -115 DET/PIT 1.15u to win 1.00u
Marquez 3ov/8un L11gms 72.7%

#919 UN 7.5 -120 TOR/SEA 1.20u to win 1.00u
Scott 7ov/15un L22gms 68.2%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allan Eastman

4 under 8.5 Yankees
3 Rays -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Reds -125