8-17-14

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Maddux NFL
49er's -3 -125 (10*) this is for Sunday 8/17

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Northcoast

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Top weekly play
3.5* San Fran-3

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Doc's Sports

1 Unit Play. #428 Take San Francisco 49ers -3.5 over Denver Broncos (Sunday 4 pm)


Denver has been getting blown out in Week 2 of the exhibition season and we fully expect that trend to continue on Sunday. The Broncos lost last year by 30 points and by 20 points in 2012. San Francisco is opening up a new stadium and that will give them the little extra effort needed to win this game by 7 to 10 points. This will be another regular season rematch and thus I do not expect the Broncos to move it up-tempo and John Fox is just 4-8 in Week 2 on the preseason.

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Baseball Crusher

Play of the Day
Oakland Athletics -145 over Atlanta Braves

Rest of the Plays
Tampa Bay Rays -120 over NY Yankees
Chicago Cubs -116 over NY Mets
Milwaukee Brewers -105 over LA Dodgers

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Soccer Crusher

Coritiba + Flamengo OVER 2
This match is happening in Brazil

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bookiemonsters

POD DET -115

MGS

NYM +100
CWS +100
LAD -105 FREE PLAY

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NFL Football Trends

NFL Preseason Betting Trends for Sunday, 8/17/14

Denver at San Francisco, 4:00 ET
Denver: 7-2 O/U WK-2
San Fran: 6-1 ATS home WK-2

Kansas City at Carolina, 8:00 ET
Kansas City: 1-3 ATS following WK-1 win
Carolina: 5-1 O/U home favorite


NFL Preseason Betting Trends for Monday, 8/18/14

Cleveland at Washington, 8:00 ET
Cleveland: 6-3-1 Under after scoring 14 or less points
Washington: 8-2 ATS home favorite

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CFL Betting Recap - Week 7
By Joe Williams


League Betting Notes

Favorites went 4-0 straight up in Week 7
Favorites went 4-0 ATS in Week 7
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 7
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 7
The 'over' went 3-1 in Week 7

Team Betting Notes

For the second consecutive week, the 'over' went 3-1 in CFL play. That's 6-2 over the past two weeks, and the 'under' was 15-5 in Weeks 1 through 5.

For the first time all season Edmonton (5-1) saw the 'over' cash in its game on the road against lowly Montreal (1-5). The Eskimos have now covered three of the past four.

The Alouettes are in a world of hurt. While they're just one game out of first place in the awful East Division, they have failed to cover four in a row, and five of six overall this season.

After stumbling last week at home, Calgary (5-1) took out its frustrations on expansion Ottawa (1-5). The Stamps have alternated covers in each of the past five, and they're 4-2 ATS overall this season. The 'over' also hit for the second game in a row after the 'under' was 4-0 in the first four weeks for Calgary.

After a 1-2 SU/ATS start, the defending Grey Cup champions from Saskatchewan (4-2) have rattled off three consecutive wins and covers. Next up is a home game against the Alouettes, so things are looking up in Regina.

Winnipeg (5-2) occupied first place for a week, but they slipped up against the Roughriders, 23-17. The 'under' has now hit in three of the past four for the Blue Bombers after the 'over' was 3-0 in their first three.

Looking ahead to Week 8, Toronto (2-4) returns from a bye to face Winnipeg in rare Tuesday action. The Blue Bombers pasted the Argos 45-21 back on June 26 at home, but this one will be at Rogers Centre in Toronto.

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CFL Week 8 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett


The CFL's Western teams are a combined 22-9 SU and 20-11 ATS heading into Week 8 of the season, while the Eastern teams are a combined 5-18 SU and 7-16 ATS. West meets East in five matchups on the CFL odds slate as the league offers up its Week 8 schedule.

Sun Aug 17 - B.C. at Toronto

Last 10 Meetings: Toronto 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS | OU 4-6

The Argonauts will play their second game of the week on Sunday night as they get a visit from the Lions, who they will battle for the first time this season. The Argos and Lions split their two games last year both SU and ATS, but that made Toronto just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in the last seven games between the two teams. The UNDER has paid out on the CFL odds for totals bettors in four of their last six meetings.

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StatFox Super Situations

CFL | BRITISH COLUMBIA at TORONTO
Play Against - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BRITISH COLUMBIA) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record on the season
49-17 since 1997. ( 74.2% | 30.3 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

CFL | BRITISH COLUMBIA at TORONTO
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (BRITISH COLUMBIA) after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 70 or more total yards in their previous game
51-15 since 1997. ( 77.3% | 0.0 units )

CFL | BRITISH COLUMBIA at TORONTO
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (TORONTO) off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.)
36-12 since 1997. ( 75.0% | 22.8 units )

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Game of the Day: Lions at Argonauts

B.C. Lions at Toronto Argonauts (+3, 51)

The Toronto Argonauts bookend a long Week 8 by hosting the BC Lions on Sunday. Toronto is the only East Division team with multiple victories over West Division foes, while the Lions are rounding into form with a two-game winning streak as they prepare to play two of their next three games on the road. Toronto started the week with a convincing home win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Tuesday and can take a commanding lead in the East with another victory.

Toronto quarterback Ricky Ray is 16 yards shy of reaching 2,000 passing yards - something he has done in each of his previous 11 CFL seasons. Ray faces a stingy Lions' defence, though, that averages 206.7 passing yards allowed, but has a West Division-worst 14 sacks. BC quarterback Kevin Glenn threw for more than 400 yards in Week 7, but still has eight touchdown passes to 11 interceptions and could see his time under centre come to an end with the impending return of Travis Lulay.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: The LV Superbook opened the Lions as 1-point road faves, but that currently sits Lions -3. The total has held at 51.

INJURY REPORT: Lions - DB Josh Johnson (Questionable, knee), WR Ernest Jackson (Questionable, ankle), QB Kevin Glenn (Questionable, quad). Argonauts - SB Jason Barnes (Questionable, knee), RB Chad Owens (Indefinitely, foot), RB Andre Durie (Indefinitely, foot).

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-3): Lulay could make his season debut as soon as Sunday, but Glenn was named offensive player of the week after his 407-yard performance and the veteran does not appear to be going quietly. Linebacker Solomon Elimimian continues to terrorize opposing offences with a league-leading 54 tackles. Rookie defensive tackle Alex Bazzie has six of the team’s 14 sacks.

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (3-4): Ray is making the most of his injury-depleted offence, passing to 10 different players and hitting four of them for touchdowns in Week 7. Chad Owens, Andre Durie, Jason Barnes and John Chiles all remain out with injuries, but running back Curtis Steele is taking some of the pressure off Ray after a 92 rushing yard performance last week. Defensive lineman Tristan Okpalaugo leads the team with five sacks.

TRENDS:

* Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Toronto.
* Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Argonauts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Lions last four games in August.

CONSENSUS: 53 percent of wagers are behind the Lions.

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Earnhardt Jr. seeks Poconos sweep on Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
GoBowling.com 400
Sunday, August 3 – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Pocono Raceway – Long Pond, PA

For the second time in less than two months, the NASCAR drivers will try to maneuver around the “The Tricky Triangle” for Sunday's GoBowling.com 400 at Pocono Raceway in Pennsylvania. This superspeedway resides in the Pocono Mountains and its tri-oval shape measures 2.5 miles. Although the straightaways are all a nearly-flat 2° of banking, they all are measured at different lengths. The frontstretch is the longest at 3,740 feet, the backstretch is 3,055 feet, and the shortstretch is a mere 1,780 feet. Each turn has a different degree of difficulty. Turn 1 has 14° of banking, Turn 2 is just 8° and Turn 3 is the flattest at 6°. There have been 10 different winners in the past 12 races at Pocono, with Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon as the only two-time champions in the span. Dale Earnhardt Jr. took home the checkered flag in June at this track, while the winner of last year's GoBowling.com 400 was Kasey Kahne.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds

Brad Keselowski 4-to-1
Jimmie Johnson 5-to-1
Tony Stewart 6-to-1
Jeff Gordon 7-to-1
Kevin Harvick 7-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8-to-1
Joey Logano 10-to-1
Denny Hamlin 10-to-1
Kasey Kahne 12-to-1
Kyle Busch 12-to-1
Kurt Busch 15-to-1
Kyle Larson 20-to-1
Matt Kenseth 20-to-1
Ryan Newman 25-to-1
Clint Bowyer 40-to-1
Jamie McMurray 60-to-1
Brian Vickers 60-to-1
Greg Biffle 60-to-1
Carl Edwards 60-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 100-to-1
Austin Dillon 100-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 100-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger 300-to-1
Justin Allgaier 300-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 300-to-1
Aric Almirola 300-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-to-1
Danica Patrick 300-to-1
Casey Mears 300-to-1


Drivers to Watch

Jeff Gordon (7/1) - Among all active drivers, only Jimmie Johnson (8.7) has a better career average finish at "The Tricky Trangle" than Gordon (10.0). Gordon has won six times at this track as part of 19 top-5's in 43 starts (44%). He also has 30 top-10 showings (70%) at this venue. This success is not all ancient history either, as Gordon won in 2011 and 2012, while finishing as the runner-up in last year's GoBowling.com 400. He's also been strong this season, remaining in the top-six in the points standings in each of the past eight weeks thanks to a win at Martinsville. Of all the chalk out there on Sunday, put your largest wager on Gordon.
Carl Edwards (60/1) - I'm stunned that Edwards has such favorable odds, especially since he went off at 20-to-1 at this track in June. In his career at "The Tricky Triangle," Edwards has posted two wins (2005, 2008), five top-5's and an average finish of 14.8 over 19 starts. His four top-5's and eight top-10's this season have kept him among the top-8 drivers in the Points Standings. At this price, Edwards is certainly worthy of a sizable bet.

Matt Kenseth (20/1) - Kenseth is a great value play on Sunday, especially considering he got 10-to-1 odds both last fall and two months ago at this venue. He has not been very successful at this track with only three top-5's in 29 starts, but Kenseth has knocked out 4th-place finishes in three of his past four starts this year to move up to fourth in the current Points Standings. I see no reason Kenseth can't post his ninth top-5 finish of the season and compete for the title on Sunday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8/1) - Earnhardt Jr. has a great chance to sweep the Poconos, which is why his price tag is so unfavorable to bettors. Over his past eight races, the No. 88 car has an average finish of 7.3, thanks to top-9 showings in six of these starts. Earnhardt has also fared extremely well on the Tricky Triangle recently. In his past seven starts at this venue, he has posted six top-9 showings, including three straight top-5 finishes. Go ahead and drop a unit on Earnhardt Jr. for Sunday.

Ryan Newman (25/1) - Another darkhorse for Sunday's race is Newman, who was tabbed with much less-favorable odds of 15-to-1 last summer at this venue. He has the fourth-best average finish (11.5) among active drivers at Pocono, helping this average out in June when he placed 7th at "The Tricky Triangle," to mark his sixth top-10 showing in his past seven starts at this venue. That race also started a nice run for Newman this year, as he has inched his way up to seventh in the Points Standings with a 10.9 average finish over the past seven starts.

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Braves go for sweep

Oakland at Atlanta

First pitch: Sunday, 8:10 p.m. ET

Line and Total: Athletics -135, Braves +125, Total 7

The top club in the league, the Oakland Athletics, finish off a series in Turner Field against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday night.

Oakland has been the best team in baseball for much of the year but is tied with the Angels in the AL West. The A's have slowed down somewhat since the All-Star break (14-14) and ran into a hot Royals team in their most recent series. The Athletics were unable to do much in Kansas City as they lost 3-of-4 contests while scoring a total of five runs over the three defeats. The series finale on Thursday resulted in a 7-3 loss, and despite 11 hits, the club was just 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position. All-Star 3B Josh Donaldson (.253 BA) was 0-for-4 in Thursday’s loss, but had a hit in each of his previous 10 games where he went 14-for-35 (.400) with four doubles, two homers and 6 RBI. The Braves had a promising start to the year, but continue to watch their playoff chances dwindle with losses in 12 of their past 17 games.

Most of Atlanta's problems spur from having the third-worst offense in the league (448 runs) and its 2.8 runs per contest in the most recent series against the Dodgers led to three defeats in four games. The Braves were unable to earn a series split on Thursday when they suffered a 6-4 loss where even their 11 hits could not overcome the poor start by Aaron Harang (4.1 IP, 5 ER). The one consistent hitter on the team has been 1B Freddie Freeman (.294) who has gone 15-for-29 (.517) with five doubles, five runs and four RBI over his past eight games. Getting the start for the Athletics on Sunday night will be LHP Jon Lester (13-7, 2.51 ERA) as he goes up against LHP Mike Minor (4-8, 5.33 ERA) for the host Braves. Oakland has had no trouble playing on the road with a 33-27 record (.550) while Atlanta is a solid 34-28 (.516) at Turner Field heading into this series. These two clubs do not meet often and have not matched up over the past three seasons.

Jon Lester was a huge pickup for the Athletics as they head towards the playoffs. Since joining the team, he is a perfect 3-0 over three starts with a 2.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP spanning 21.2 innings. Overall on the year, his 2.51 ERA is fifth-best in the AL while he ranks second in wins (13) and sixth in strikeouts (169). Much of his success has come from his 9.2 K/9, his best mark since 2010, but he has also had his best control of his career (2.0 BB/9) and is keeping the ball in the park by giving up only nine home runs in 164.2 frames (0.49 HR/9). Lester posted a quality start in his last outing, going six innings while allowing three runs on six hits with nine strikeouts and two walks. He has faced Atlanta just three times in his career, going 2-1 with a strong 3.32 ERA, but a poor 1.58 WHIP, and has walked a surprisingly high seven batters in 19 innings of work.

OF B.J. Upton has the most experience against Lester with his time in the AL East, but is a woeful 12-for-58 (.207) with 13 strikeouts in the matchup. Meanwhile, OF Jason Heyward (4-for-6, 2 doubles, 1 HR) has had success against the lefty in limited at-bats. Coming into this series, Oakland’s bullpen has gone 21-15 with a 2.91 ERA and is 26-for-38 (68%) in save opportunities. Sean Doolittle (2.39 ERA, 18 saves) has been amazing as the closer, and owns an unprecedented 74:4 K/BB ratio while going 18-for-21 (86%) in his own saves chances.

Mike Minor has been pitching better than his numbers would suggest, as he has struck out a solid 8.1 batters per nine innings while harnessing his control (2.6 BB/9). Most of his issues so far have stemmed from allowing far too many home runs (1.55 HR/9) and dealing with some bad luck (.358 BABIP). Minor's past five starts have not gone very well as he has allowed five or more runs in three of those outings while giving up 46 hits in 27.1 frames. Minor has never faced the Athletics in his four-year career and will have his work cut out for him as they own the best offense in the league (589 runs) led by 3B Josh Donaldson (.256 BA) who has 27 home runs (9th in majors) and 84 RBI (4th in MLB). On the other side of the diamond, 1B Brandon Moss (.256 BA) has also been putting up big numbers (23 HR, 76 RBI). Coming into Friday, the relievers for Atlanta have gone 17-19 with a 3.25 ERA while converting a tremendous 42-of-51 (82%) saves. Craig Kimbrel (1.88 ERA, 35 saves) has struck out 15.0 batters per nine innings on the year while allowing a single home run in 48 innings on the mound (0.19 HR/9).

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Under trending when this pitcher is on short rest
Stephen Campbell

Seattle Mariners starter Chris Young has been extremely productive for Under backers on short rest, evidenced by the O/U going 1-9-1 in his last 11 starts on four-days rest.

He'll get the ball just four days after his last start on Sunday against the Detroit Tigers, who will counter with Robbie Ray on the mound. The Tigers are currently -129 favorites with a total of nine for the AL matchup.