8-17-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT

***** Sunday, 8/17/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #20
•Kershaw's Win Streak Ends At 11 In Loss To Brewers: Clayton Kershaw gave up two home runs, as many as he did in his previous 11 starts, and that was enough to abruptly snap his long winning streak. Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez homered against the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner and three-time defending major league ERA champion on Saturday night, as the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-1 behind eight solid innings from Yovani Gallardo. Kershaw (14-3), who had won 11 straight decisions, allowed five hits and no walks and struck out 11 in going the distance for the 17th time in 202 career starts. "It comes down to (the fact that) I got outpitched," said Kershaw, who had a 1.16 ERA over his previous 13 starts since his last loss on May 28 against Cincinnati. Last Sunday, he held the NL Central-leading Brewers to one run in eight innings in a 5-1 victory at Milwaukee.

•Reds Place Bailey On DL, Promote Axelrod: Days after the Cincinnati Reds announced that Homer Bailey would miss his upcoming start due to a right elbow injury, the team placed the right-hander on the 15-day disabled list Saturday. The move was made retroactive to Aug. 8, meaning Bailey could be activated as soon as Friday. According to the Reds, an MRI exam revealed that Bailey has a strained flexor mass in his pitching elbow. The Reds purchased the contract of right-hander Dylan Axelrod from Triple-A Louisville, and he was scheduled to start Saturday night in Denver against the Colorado Rockies. Bailey's injury is believed to have occurred during an at-bat in an Aug. 7 start against the Cleveland Indians. Bailey threw seven shutout innings during a 4-0 victory.

After a couple of rocky stretches this season, Bailey was hitting his stride heading into the season's stretch run. In two August starts, Bailey is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA with 13 strikeouts and just walks in 14 innings. Overall, he is 9-5 with a 3.71 ERA in 23 starts. Axelrod, 29, spent parts of the previous three seasons with the Chicago White Sox, going 7-13 with a 5.36 ERA in 48 games (30 starts). Pitching for the Triple-A affiliates of the White Sox and the Reds this year, he was a combined 8-8 with a 4.09 ERA in 23 games (21 starts). To clear a spot for Axelrod on the 40-man roster, the Reds transferred first baseman Joey Votto from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day DL. Votto, out since July 6 due to a left leg injury, is not expected to begin baseball activity until the end of August.

•Trade Rumors Continue To Swirl Around Phils' Hamels: The rumors of Cole Hamels' departure will not soon subside. The ace lefthander cannot be traded until November. Whether or not to deal Hamels to replenish a depleted pool of young talent will be the winter's most significant dilemma. Hamels has made his intent clear: He wants to remain in Philadelphia. But he wants to win, and contention could take the Phillies years to recapture. "For me the idea is to try to turn it around rather quickly," manager Ryne Sandberg said. "You have to have starting pitching to do that and he'd be a big piece." That is why the Phillies will want an acquiring team to surrender three or four top prospects and assume the $96 million owed to Hamels. They are in no way motivated to trade the 30-year-old pitcher; Sandberg identified starting pitching as the team's greatest need moving forward.

"He'd be a tough one to replace," Sandberg said. "He'd be tough to replace. We have question marks about Cliff [Lee]. Cliff, we won't know. A.J. [Burnett], we don't know. You have to start your staff somewhere and he'd be a good place to start." Lee, 35, is sidelined by a strained left elbow. Burnett, 37, has a player option worth as much as $12.75 million next season. Sandberg said he does not have a read on whether Burnett will retire. Hamels entered Friday with a 1.76 ERA in his last 18 starts. He needed just 21 pitches to silence the Giants in the first two innings. The rumors may have motivated Hamels. "The good ones rise to the top, and he's a good one," Sandberg said. "I think one way or another, there was a challenge there. He's taken his game to a different level."

Around The League
--Washington Nationals right-hander Doug Fister has been nearly automatic over the past month and a half as he leads the Washington Nationals into Sunday's tilt with the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates. Fister is 7-2 straight up over his last nine starts while giving up no fewer than three runs in any of those outings.

--Oakland Athletics left-hander Jon Lester will look to make it four straight victories with his new team on Sunday Night Baseball as he takes on the host Atlanta Braves. Lester has won each of his first three starts in an Oakland uniform, posting a 2.49 ERA while allowing zero home runs over that stretch.

--The Chicago Cubs optioned outfielder Junior Lake to Triple-A Iowa Saturday and recalled right-handed pitcher Dan Straily. Lake, 24, is batting just .216 with 102 strikeouts and only 10 walks in 305 plate appearances. He batted .284 in 64 games last year but has struggled this season. Straily, 25, was acquired on July 4 as part of the trade that sent right-hander Jeff Samardzija to the Oakland A's. He went 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA in seven starts with Iowa. In parts of three major league seasons, he is 13-11 with a 4.11 ERA over 41 starts.

--New York Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka threw a 25-pitch bullpen session Saturday. It was the ace's first bullpen session in a month since going on the disabled list with a partial tear in his right elbow. Tanaka pitched from the mound before Saturday's game against the Tampa Bay Rays. Pitching coach Larry Rothschild said Tanaka looked "fine," but it is "more important how he feels tomorrow." Tanaka has been on the disabled list July 9. The club hopes he can avoid season-ending surgery and return in September. The Japanese star is 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA over 18 starts in his first season as a major leaguer.

--Minor league pitcher Francisco Almonte was handed a 72-game suspension without pay from the commissioner's office after a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs. Almonte, a right-hander, tested positive for metabolites of Stanozolol, a performance-enhancing substance in violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. The suspension is effective immediately after Almonte signs with another major league organization.

--The Cleveland Indians activated outfielder Michael Bourn from the 15-day disabled list. Bourn was on the DL since July 6 with a strained left hamstring. He played six games in a minor league rehab assignment with Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus that started Aug. 5. For the season, Bourn is batting .267 with nine doubles, seven triples, three home runs, 21 RBIs and 37 runs scored in 66 games.

--The Chicago Cubs traded 2009 first-round draft pick Brett Jackson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for minor league relief pitcher Blake Cooper. Jackson, a former top prospect of the Cubs, is in Triple-A. The outfielder made his major league debut in 2012 but has a .175 batting average with 59 strikeouts in 44 major league games.

--The Detroit Tigers are ready to call up right-handed reliever Jim Johnson from Triple-A Toledo but he wants one more minor league outing, according to the Detroit News. The Tigers picked up Johnson less than two weeks ago and signed him to a minor league contract. He was released by the Oakland A's on Aug. 1. Johnson, a former closer, had a 7.14 ERA in 38 appearances with Oakland before the team let him go. The A's still owe him his $10 million salary for this year.

--Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is scheduled for knee surgery on Monday that likely will end his season. The Rockies announced Thursday night that Gonzalez will undergo a procedure on the left patellar tendon but did not specify the length of the recovery or when he might return to baseball activities.

--Detroit Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander, who only pitched one inning in his last start on Monday because of shoulder soreness, will not pick up a baseball until Tuesday, Detroit manager Brad Ausmus said. Verlander could throw a bullpen session during the middle of next week if the pain is gone.

--The Pittsburgh Pirates activated right-hander John Axford as right-hander Stolmy Pimentel was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a mild right ankle sprain, according to Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle. Axford was 2-3 with 10 saves an ERA of 3.92 with the Cleveland Indians this season. "He's got great experience. Has been through a lot, wants the ball, wants to pitch. I think he's going to be a healthy addition for our club," Hurdle said of Axford, who was picked up on waivers by the Pirates on Thursday morning.
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Betting Notes - Sunday

National League
•Cubs-Mets - 1:10 PM
--Arrieta is 1-3, 4.78 in his last five starts.
--Mets are 0-5 when Montero starts (0-3, 6.48).

--Cubs lost 13 of their last 18 road games.
--Mets won last two home games, after losing previous five.

--Under is 7-2-1 in Cubs' last ten games.

•Diamondbacks-Marlins - 1:10 PM
--Collmenter is 0-1, 6.88 in his last four starts.
--Koehler is 1-2, 4.50 in his last three starts.

--Arizona is 8-13 in its last twenty-one games.
--Marlins won six of their last nine games.

--Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Arizona games.

•Padres-Cardinals - 2:15 PM
--Despaigne is 1-2, 4.91 in his last five starts.
--Wainwright is 2-3, 5.23 in his last five starts.

--San Diego won six of its last eight games.
--Cardinals won three of their last four games.

--Six of last seven St Louis home games stayed under.

•Phillies-Giants - 4:05 PM
--Buchanan is 2-1, 3.26 in his last three starts.
--Lincecum is 0-3, 8.51 in his last five starts.

--Philly lost six of its last eight games.
--Giants also lost six of their last eight games.

--Four of last five San Francisco games went over.

•Reds-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Axelrod is 7-13, 5.36 in 30 MLB starts; this is his first '14 start. He was 8-8, 4.09 in 21 AAA starts this season. Latos is 2-0, 2.08 in last three starts.
--Lyles is 1-1, 6.07 in his last six starts. Colorado is 0-7 when Flande starts (0-5, 5.59)

--Cincinnati lost five of its last seven games.
--Rockies lost 15 of their last 19 games. .

--Eight of last ten Lyles starts went over total.

•Brewers-Dodgers - 4:10 PM
--Peralta is 5-1, 2.29 in his last six starts.
--Haren is 2-0, 2.03 in his last two starts.

--Milwaukee won last three games, allowing seven runs.
--Dodgers lost three of their last four games.

--Under is 6-2 in last eight Milwaukee games.

•Pirates-Nationals - 5:05 PM
--Volquez is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
--Fister is 6-1, 1.88 in his last seven starts.

--Pittsburgh lost six of last eight, including last five on road.
--Nationals won eight of their last ten games.

--Seven of last nine Pirate road games went over total.
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American League
•Mariners-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--Young is 3-0, 3.09 in his last four starts.
--Ray is 0-2, 11.88 in his last two starts.

--Mariners won nine of their last eleven games.
--Detroit won six of its last seven home games.

--Four of last five Young starts went over the total.

•Orioles-Indians - 1:05 PM
--Gausman is 2-1, 3.65 in his last four starts.
--Salazar is 3-1, 4.09 in his last four starts.

--Orioles lost three of their last four road games.
--Cleveland won five of its last six games.

--Last six Cleveland games stayed under total.

•Astros-Red Sox - 1:35 PM
--McHugh is 2-0, 1.40 in his last three starts.
--Kelly is 0-0, 2.07 in two starts for Boston, both Red Sox wins.

--Houston lost seven of its last eight road games.
--Red Sox won six of their last eight games.

--Six of last nine McHugh starts stayed under total.

•Yankees-Tampa Bay - 1:40 PM
--Kuroda is 0-2, 4.34 in his last three starts.
--Hellickson is 1-1, 2.05 in five starts (26.2 IP).

--New York lost five of last five games, outscored 30-10.
--Rays won seven of their last ten games.

--Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Yankees games.

•Blue Jays-White Sox - 2:10 PM
--Hutchison is 2-4, 6.69 in his last seven starts.
--Carroll is 0-2, 6.65 in his last four starts.

--Toronto lost ten of its last fourteen games.
--White Sox lost nine of their last thirteen games.

--Five of last six Hutchison starts went over total.

•Royals-Twins - 2:10 PM
--Guthrie is 3-1, 4.62 in his last four starts.
--Milone is 5-0, 3.26 in his last ten starts.

--Royals won 14 of their last 17 games.
--Minnesota won four of its last six games.

--10 of last 13 Kansas City road games stayed under.

•Angels-Rangers - 3:05 PM
--Santiago is 0-0, 2.08 in his last four starts.
--Tepesch is 1-0, 1.42 in his last couple starts.

--Angels won five of their last six games.
--Texas lost 17 of their last 24 games.

--Six of last eight Angel games stayed under total.

Interleague
•Athletics-Braves - 8:05 PM
--Lester is 3-0, 2.49 in three starts for Oakland.
--Minor is 1-3, 7.17 in his last four starts.

--Oakland lost six of its last seven games.
--Braves won three of their last four games.

--Seven of last ten Oakland road games went over total.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
Cardinals Adam Wainwright is a remarkable 26-6 in his team starts (81.2%) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last two seasons. Wainwright had a solid outing last time out but didn't get enough support to take over the major league wins lead. He hasn't usually needed too much help in home starts versus the San Diego Padres and will try to have another stellar performance against them Sunday in St. Louis while earning his 15th win.

The right-hander's inability to get a 15th victory allowed Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto to take over the wins lead Friday. He'll try to move into a tie with Cueto while earning his fifth victory in as many home starts against San Diego. Wainwright has a 0.84 ERA in those prior matchups in St. Louis and gave up two runs over eight innings in his most recent one, a 3-2 win July 21, 2013. He is 5-2 with a 1.20 ERA in seven overall starts against San Diego and went 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA last season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data


Free Play Sunday

Seattle +100

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Rays on Saturday and likes the Nationals on Sunday.

The deficit is 567 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo scored easily with the Tribe again Saturday night but whiffed with the Mariners and Pirates, whose late collapse raised the deficit to 1,530 shows.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch will take a stab with the Padres to show Cards who their daddies are — 10 units on Despaigne. Also, 10 on the Cubs to keep Montero out of the win column.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 8

BCLions (4-3) @ Toronto (3-4)-- Lions won four of last five games after 0-2 start; underdogs covered all three of their road games. BC is 2-1 on road, scoring 20 ppg (they average 25.8 ppg at home). Toronto won last two games after 1-4 start; they're 2-1 at home, with all three games decided by 17+ points. Western teams are 18-4 SU vs eastern teams this year; BC is 16-2 in its last 18 games with Toronto, splitting last four visits here- they lost 38-12 (-6.5) in LY's visit. Eight of BC's last ten games here stayed under total, as have five of seven Lionn games and four of last five Toronto games. Argos just played five days ago, beating Winnipeg 38-21.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | PHOENIX at SEATTLE
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game, after scoring 75 points or more
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )

WNBA | SAN ANTONIO at CHICAGO
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) revenging a same season loss versus opponent, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team
80-22 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 0.0 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at NEW YORK
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points good foul drawing team - attempting >=20 free throws/game, up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season
259-159 since 1997. ( 62.0% | 84.1 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.7 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | ARIZONA at MIAMI
Play On - Road teams (ARIZONA) cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest
122-100 over the last 5 seasons. ( 55.0% | 55.1 units )
14-15 this year. ( 48.3% | 1.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | SEATTLE at DETROIT
SEATTLE is 24-13 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in Road games with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was: SEATTLE (4.7) , OPPONENT (3.1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Sunday

A 3-0 sweep on Saturday! A big eight play Major League Baseball card for Sunday. Best of luck!

-EZ

3* (953) Arizona Diamondbacks +$130

3* (969) Houston Astros +$130

3* (955) San Diego Padres +$161

3* (978) Texas Rangers +$135

3* (957) Philadelphia Phillies +$140

3* (960) Colorado Rockies +$124

3* (963) Pittsburgh Pirates +$145

3* (980) Atlanta Braves +$120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookiemonsters

POD Detroit Tigers -115


Money Generators

New York Mets +100

Chicago White Sox +100


FREE PLAY Los Angeles Dodgers -105

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Sunday's Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Week 2 Recap: The home teams put up a 5-0 straight-up and 3-2 against the spread record on Thursday and Friday. The road clubs bounced back nicely on Saturday night by compiling a 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record, as the Vikings and Steelers each won by a combined five points at home with late scores. The ‘over’ went 4-4 last night after the ‘over’ finished a perfect 4-0 on Friday night.

Broncos at 49ers (-4½, 41½)

2014 Preseason Records: DEN (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), SF (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Previous preseason meeting: Broncos beat 49ers, 10-6 as three-point road underdogs in 2013.

Preseason review: Denver picked up a tiny bit of revenge from this past February’s Super Bowl beatdown by Seattle, as the Broncos rallied past the Seahawks, 21-16 as one-point home ‘dogs. The 49ers traveled east and didn’t put up much of a fight in a 23-3 defeat to the Ravens. San Francisco was outgained by nearly 200 yards, while Baltimore held the ball for almost 40 minutes.

Expert Analysis: Doc’s Sports - Denver has been getting blown out in Week 2 of the exhibition season and we fully expect that trend to continue on Sunday. The Broncos lost last year by 30 points and by 20 points in 2012 (both losses to Seattle). San Francisco is opening up a new stadium and that will give them the little extra effort needed to win this game by 7 to 10 points. This will be another regular season rematch and thus I do not expect the Broncos to move it up-tempo and John Fox is just 4-8 in Week 2 in the preseason.

Chiefs at Panthers (-3½, 40)

2014 Preseason Records: KC (1-0 SU, 0-0-1 ATS), CAR (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Previous preseason meeting: Chiefs beat Panthers, 30-10 as 3 ½-point home favorites in 1997.

Preseason review: Kansas City outlasted Cincinnati, 41-39, but pushed as two-point favorites. The Chiefs benefited from a pair of interception returns for touchdowns to win their third straight exhibition contest dating back to last August. Cam Newton sat out Carolina’s preseason opening loss to Buffalo, 20-18 as short home underdogs. The Panthers scored on a pair of long touchdown passes, but a late two-point conversion failed to tie the game.

Expert Analysis: Tony Stoffo - With Newton nursing offseason ankle surgery and an unsettled offensive line, the Panthers could only manage six points and 70+ yards in the first half against the Bills in Week 1. While even though the Chiefs put up 41 points on the Bengals in the first half, they could only manage three offensive field goal drives as the rest of their points were on 80-yard punt return and a 36-yard Sean Smith pick-six for a score. So I feel we have a ton of value in this total as the public and the odds makers have over-reacted to what the Chiefs did and posted an extremely high total here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers

The Kansas City Chiefs came out on top of a 41-39 shootout with the Cincinnati Bengals in their first preseason game. While on the surface that score might lead some to believe the Chiefs’ offense was dominant, the reality is that 27 of the team’s 41 points came from the defense and special teams. The Chiefs had a kick return touchdown, two interception return touchdowns, and two field goals in the win over Cincinnati in addition to two offensive scores. Kansas City will look to build on that performance in its second preseason game this Sunday against a Carolina Panthers’ team that suffered a close 20-18 loss to the Buffalo Bills in its exhibition opener.

Players We’re Watching

De’Anthony Thomas – Kansas City Chiefs

The fourth-round pick out of Oregon showed off his speed in his first NFL preseason game with an 80-yard punt return for a touchdown. Thomas caught the punt, made a wicked spin move, then hit the lane with a ridiculous burst of speed and took it the distance. An absolute burner that the Chiefs envision being a contributor as a receiver, running back, and return man, Thomas is a threat to make a big play every time he touches the ball. Special teams coach Dave Toub is an excellent motivator that knows how to get the most out of his players and the rookie return man is an outstanding weapon. Keep an eye out for Thomas on special teams and on offense where he had just one carry for three yards in the preseason opener.

Kelvin Benjamin – Carolina Panthers

The Panthers’ receiving core was completely revamped in the offseason after the team said goodbye to Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn. The team added veterans Jason Avant and Jerricho Cotchery but the biggest move came in the draft when they selected Florida State wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin with their first-round pick. At 6’5, 241 pounds, Benjamin is an absolute monster target that can outmuscle defenders and win jump balls. He also has excellent speed and elite body control, which he showed last week when he made his first NFL catch. Benjamin sprinted down the left side of the field and seemed to have a step on his man but was forced to adjust to an under thrown ball so he dove to make a spectacular touchdown catch. Benjamin is being relied on as the Panthers’ No. 1 receiver in year one and it already looks as though he is very capable.

Preseason Coaching Trend

Andy Reid hasn’t finished with a preseason record below .500 since 2009 and that likely won’t change this year with a deep roster and plenty of battles going on at the skill positions. Ron Rivera went 3-1 in the preseason a year ago but there isn’t the same urgency there was coming off a down year in 2013 and Cam Newton isn’t available.

Prediction

The Chiefs got scoring contributions from the offense, defense, and special teams in their preseason opener and while the final result didn’t count, this team looked organized and ready to compete in all three facets of the game. Carolina isn’t as good as its record was a year ago and it will take some time to get in to form with so many new faces. Look for this to be a lower scoring game with Kansas City securing its second preseason win.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3

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Maddux Sports

MLB

10* Cleveland Indians -111

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MLB

'Rubber Match'

The finale of a three game set between San Francisco and Philadelphia is the betting focus for Sunday. The Giants will have Lincecum handling the start. Lincecum is 9-8 on the year, with an ERA of 4.51. The righty not overly sharp of late is 0-1 in his last three with a whopping 9.95 ERA. Philadelphia will send out right-hander David Buchanan, who currently sports a 6-6 record with a 4.40 ERA. Buchanan is 2-1 his last three with a smart 3.26 ERA. Home cooking has not helped Giants the past month or so, compiling a record of 3-7 record last ten, 7-14 mark last twenty-one before the home audience. Those home numbers along with Lincecum experiencing a rough spot it's a challenge backing San Francisco. However, digging deeper to get a better take on the situation Lincecum is 6-3 with a 3.51 ERA at home (10-4 TSR), compared with 3-5, 5.98 on the road (5-6 TSR). The fact that this game is a rubber match a telling baseball betting stat leaps out. Giants are 5-2 at home this year in a rubber matchup including 1-0 w/Lincecum. A final betting nugget pointing to a San Francisco victory, Phillies are 0-3 on the road w/Buchanan off a loss it's previous effort.

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Advanced sports investments

Perry Soccer Club


France - Ligue 1
HSC Montpellier @ Olympique Marseille - Over 2.5 +105 (8am)


Switzerland - Axpo Superleague
Young Boys Bern @ FC Vaduz - Over 2.5 -135 (10am)

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Game of the Day: A's at Braves

Oakland Athletics at Atlanta Braves (+133, 7)

Jon Lester has won his first three starts for Oakland, pitching like the game-changer the Athletics envisioned when they acquired him from Boston at the trade deadline. Oakland needs another strong performance from its new ace when it tries to avoid a sweep in Sunday night’s series finale at the Atlanta Braves, as the Athletics – who held sole possession of first place in the American League West for 106 consecutive days – are now two percentage points behind the Los Angeles Angels. The Braves have held Oakland to five runs on nine hits in taking the first two games, and while six games behind first-place Washington in the National League East, they are much closer in the wild-card race.

Atlanta sits 1 1/2 games behind San Francisco for the final NL playoff spot, winning three of its last four contests after dropping 11 of its previous 13. Justin Upton brings a seven-game hitting streak into the series finale while Chris Johnson, who went 3-for-4 with two RBIs in Saturday’s 4-3 victory, is in the midst of a five-game run. The offense has contributed greatly to Oakland's skid, collecting five hits or fewer in four of its last six games while scoring fewer than four runs five times.

TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Braves as +129 home dogs, but that has moved to +133. The total has held steady at seven.

INJURY WATCH: A's - SS Jed Lowrie (15-day DL, hamstring), 2B Nick Punto (15-day DL, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: A's (-204), Braves (-164).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Athletics took a gamble before the trade deadline when they traded away back-to-back defending Home Run Derby champion Yoenis Cespedes to the Red Sox. Oakland's offense has been inconsistent since that trade. One of the new acquisitions from Boston in that trade is starting pitcher Jon Lester. He has continued to pitch well since arriving in Oakland with a 2.49 ERA in three starts so far which almost identical to his 2.52 ERA in 21 starts with Boston earlier this season." Steve Merril

PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics LH Jon Lester (13-7, 2.51 ERA) vs. Braves LH Mike Minor (4-8, 5.33)

Lester has allowed six earned runs while registering 20 strikeouts over 21 2/3 innings in his first three starts for Oakland and is 7-0 with a 1.46 ERA in his last seven outings overall. He followed a three-hit shutout over Minnesota in his second turn for the Athletics with a performance against Kansas City on Tuesday in which he yielded three runs and hits over six frames. Lester beat the Braves on May 27 in Atlanta while with the Red Sox, allowing three runs and fanning seven in six innings.

Minor seemed to benefit from being skipped in the rotation prior to his start against the Dodgers on Tuesday, as he allowed three runs with seven strikeouts despite losing for the third time in his last four outings. He is 2-4 in his last eight starts, yielding 34 earned runs on 64 hits (eight homers) in 44 2/3 innings. Minor has surrendered at least eight hits in each of his last five starts and five or more runs three times in that span.


TRENDS:

* Athletics are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.
* Braves are 1-7 in their last eight games as an underdog.
* Athletics are 1-8 in their last nine games with umpire Ted Barrett behind home plate.
* Athletics are 0-4 in their last four overall.

CONSENSUS: 69 percent of wagers are backing the A's.