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The Mariners Chris Young has treated the Sharps and our clients pretty well this season and he will get the ball this afternoon opposing Robbie Ray and the Detroit Tigers. Ray is taking the spot in the rotation vacated by Anibal Sanchez when he went on the DL. Young has been a workhorse for these Mariners this season, who still find themselves right in the thick of the Wild Card race in the AL. We have some questions whether Ray can get the job done for the Tigers as he wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire while pitching for Triple-A Toledo. This will be his second start in the rotation, the first was a 4-2 loss to the Pirates on Tuesday. The Mariners have been a really solid road play, especially against the better teams in the AL. They are 15-6 in their last 21 road games vs. teams with a winning record and 4-0 over Young's last four starts. Conversely, the Tigers are just 5-11 in their last 16 games vs. teams with a winning mark. Young and the Mariners get the final game of this series this afternoon. The Sharps say...
Coming off a 3-1 night on my MLB Plays on Saturday, we head into Sunday’s action on a 14-7 MLB run and look to continue that going with todays plays. I have 6 MLB Plays going today including my MLB GOW Play, this is my top rated play of the week.
The LA Dodgers have dropped he first 2 games of this mini 3 game series against the Brewers and will look to get a W when Dan Haren takes the mound this afternoon. Haren has been very inconsistent this season and comes into this game with a 10-9 record in 24 starts this year. He has pitched to a 4.50 ERA in 140 IP which ranks 3rd worst in the NL among starting pitchers who have worked at least 140 IP in 2014. In 6 ‘Day’ starts this season, Haren has been rocked for 23 ER in just 35 2/3 IP. He is 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in those matinee games whilst opponents have hit a lofty .325 against him.
Wily Peralta gets the nod for the Brewers and he comes into todays match up with a 14-7 record in 24 starts this season. The righty has pitched to a 3.46 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 151 IP in 2014 and the Brewers are 15-9 in games Peralta has started. Peralta is 1-1 in 2 career outings against the Dodgers with an ERA of 8.21 and 2.01 WHIP. Peralta has struggled with his command in 11 road starts this year, he has issued 9 walks in his last 3 road outings opponents are hitting .270 in 9 ‘Day’ games against Peralta this season.
I feel the value is defiantly on the OVER in this mach up, especially with the line currently at 8. Both teams have hit the baseball pretty well over the last week and the Over is 14-7 when you combine Peralta and Haren’s Home/Road starts.
The following selection is our 8-unit Underdog Game of the Year
8-unit Play Take #969 Houston Astros (+125) over Boston Red Sox (1:35pm EST) Once again we call Houston's number and look to cash a ticket with the Astros. Overall they've been a good moneymaker for us and tonight they send one of the more underrated pitchers in the AL to the mound. That would be right-hander Collin McHugh. He hasn't received much run support, but McHugh owns a very nice 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 18 starts for the Stros this season. He's been getting better in each start and is quietly becoming a legitimate top-of-the-rotation type starter for Houston. He has a devastating changeup that has kept hitters off balance all season long and his confidence is growing by the day. It's hard to pass up a big underdog price tag on a pitcher as good as McHugh, because it usually has some value. The Red Sox aren't too focused on winning this season and their offense has been the biggest reason. They are currently ranked dead last in the AL in runs scored with less than four per game. Joe Kelly goes for the Red Sox as he makes his third start with Boston. His first two starts have been a little bit shaky as he's walked more batters than he has struck out overall. Those were both on the road against NL teams in interleague play, so this will be his first true start in the AL. I imagine Kelly will have a little more nerves than usual pitching in Fenway with his new team. I'm not too crazy about his stuff overall as he maxes out at the #4 or #5 spot in a team's starting rotation. The Astros lineup isn't spectacular, but it's a lot better than it was earlier this season. McHugh should be able to get the job done here and we have a great chance to make this underdog a winner. Take Houston as our 8-unit Underdog Game of the Year.
4-unit Play Take #975 Kansas City Royals (-105) over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) If there's a club out there with more team chemistry than the Kansas City Royals, I haven't seen it yet. The Royals seemingly always find ways to win, and now that we've seen it two seasons in a row we know that it isn't a fluke. Kansas City wins with solid fundamentals and managing. They have a nice starting rotation, excellent bullpen and one of the best defenses in baseball. They hit when they need to and they don't rely on one or two guys to carry them. It's a different hero every night and they like it that way. It's all paid off as the Royals have been one of the hottest teams in baseball of late, with a 19-5 mark over their last 24 contests. Right-hander Jeremy Guthrie will be tasked with keeping the roll going against the Twins today. Guthrie has had an up and down season in 2014, but I like the way he's throwing right now despite giving up four runs last time out. He went the full nine innings the start before that and held the A's scoreless in six innings two starts ago. He also has a healthy 14-2 K/BB ratio over his last three starts combined. The Twins have been slowly dying this season after a decent start. They are now 11 games under the .500 mark and are more focused on the future than the present. Lefty Tommy Milone gets the nod here and I'm not a big fan of his. His peripheral numbers haven't been good all season mainly because his stuff is mediocre at best. The A's knew it and that's why they unloaded him at the trade deadline. With the way the Royals are playing, this line is clearly too short.
RAYS ML -114 *4* BEST BET Play on Hellickson and the Rays here this aft. Hellickson has been spot on since his late start to his season on July 8th. Now five starts in for the Rays righty, all against impressive offenses (KC, BOS, LAA, TEX, OAK) and owns just a 2.02 ERA. Yankees coming back down to reality losing 5 of their last 6, scoring no more than 3 runs over that 6 game stretch, we see them struggling to score against Hellickson at the Trop this aft.
PADRES @ CARDINALS – UNDER 7 -110 *2* These teams are a combine 96-136 o/u this year. The starting pitchers today are a combine 12-18 o/u. We all know how good Wainwright is and he should not have trouble shutting down the Padres offence. The Cards have only given up an average of 2.1 runs in Wainwrights starts this year. The Padres have only given up an average of 28 runs in Despaignes starts. If the Cards didn’t hit him hard earlier this year this would be a larger play.
MARLINS ML + NATIONALS ML +178 *3* Koehler for the Marlins has been solid at home with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.03 ERA. His counterpart in Collmenter has been getting lit up of late (1.57 WHIP, 7.71 ERA L3 Starts) and has terrible road numbers (5.59 ERA, 1.69 WHIP). The Marlins come in having won 4 of 6 overall and 2 of the past 3 games between these teams. Fister for the Nationals has been as close to an auto-win as they can get with a 13-4 record and incredible numbers on the season (1.07 WHIP, 2.34 ERA). His numbers have actually been better than that of late with a 0.98 WHIP and a 0.84 ERA over his past 3 starts. Washington is red hot having won 5 straight and 8 of 10. Pittsburgh meanwhile has dropped 4 in a row now.
ATHLETICS -1 – 114 *3* Oakland hasn’t been playing well lately and need to right the ship ASAP. no better time then the present tonight in prime time Sunday night baseball against the Braves. Their big deadline deal Jon Lester gets the nod and he has been fantastic since his arrival, going 3-0 with a impressive 2.49 ERA. Braves have been pretty inconsistent this season and you never know what team will show up. Tonight they send Mike Minor who hasn’t found his groove in 2014 with a 4-8 record and 5.33 ERA covering 18 starts. The Angels are breathing down their necks let’s see what they are really made of here tonight as we have made a lot of cash with them this year and this is another great spot.
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