8-17-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bets That Profit

3* Cubs/Mets UNDER 7(-115)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

CFL

B.C. Lions @ TORONTO

TORONTO +3½ -107 over B.C. Lions

(Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)

The elephant in the room here is that the Argos will be playing on five days rest after they knocked off the Blue Bombers on Tuesday. Winnipeg got whacked on short rest in that game and now folks are expecting a similar fate for the Argonauts. The first thing every news article writes about regarding this game is the difference in rest, which has had a big influence on the betting line. Argos opened as a 1½-point pooch and that line has shot up to 3½. However, when Winnipeg played in Toronto on Tuesday, they had to travel, the Argonauts do not and that’s a huge difference. Much has also been made about the key offensive injuries to several Argos but Ricky Ray is so good and so accurate that he can compensate or utilize just about anyone. Ray spread the ball around to 10 different receivers against Winnipeg and completed 26 of 33 passes. The Argos 406 yards per game is easily the best mark in the CFL. Toronto's defense is coming on too.

This week we’ve seen two flat teams from the West playing the East when Ottawa nearly upset a lethargic Edmonton club while Montreal came within a whisker of doing the same thing to the Riders in Saskatchewan. Now the Lions are coming off back-to-back wins over Calgary and Hamilton and both were of the intense variety, as they both came right down to the wire. The Lions have a much bigger game on deck next week against Saskatchewan so don’t be surprised if they’re somewhat flat too. Lions QB, Kevin Glenn was named offensive player of the week. Combine that with the “short rest” angle and what we have is an inflated number that has been influenced by the media. We get the better QB, playing for a team that is starting to roil and we also get a nice number on the Double Blue in their own barn. Definite upset possibility.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Kansas City @ MINNESOTA

Kansas City -104 over MINNESOTA

(Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

Three things come into play here and none of them are in favour of the Twins. First, the Royals are the superior team that has been better on the road than they’ve been at home. Secondly, Jeremy Guthrie is a better option than Tom Milone and lastly, the Royals pen is much better than the Twinkies pen. Milone came over from Oakland for Sam Fuld and once again Billy Beane made another GM look foolish. Milone had been in the minors when the trade occurred and there was speculation that he was going to stay there (at AAA-Rochester) because he had a 6.43 ERA in his four outings at AAA-Sacramento. He also allowed five HR in 21 innings overall against Pacific Coast League hitters. In his first start with the Twins in Houston, Milone allowed eight hits in six innings, walked three and struck out five. He was hit hard but only allowed two runs (both solo shots). Luckily for Milone he had a 100% strand rate in that game but he was in a jam in just about every inning. Milone is a fly-ball pitcher whose fastball barely reaches 90 MPH. Lots can go wrong with all those fly-balls and line-drives. Without much upside, continue to expect replacement-level performance from this stiff and let's not ignore the six jacks Milone has surrendered over his last five games with four of those starts at the minor-league level.

Guthrie is also a risk but at least he wins games and he’s a highly intelligent pitcher. Guthrie excels at eating innings and keeping his team in games. That’s not a bad start when you have an outstanding bullpen behind you. We also like what Guthrie has done of late with a BB/K split of 7/23 over his last 31 innings covering five starts. The Royals are 3-2 in those starts and overall, the Royals are 13-11 in his 24 starts. The Royals are 19-5 over their past 24 games and over that stretch we don’t see a pitcher worse than Tommy Milone that they had to face. Invest.


Milwaukee @ LOS ANGELES

Milwaukee +104 over LOS ANGELES

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

The only thing that will prevent the Brewers from winning here is a letdown after they overcame Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw to take the first two games of this series. The Crew take a huge step down in class today in facing Dan Haren. The Dodgers were so concerned about Haren’s ineffectiveness that they went out and picked up two stiffs in Kevin Correia and Roberto Hernandez. Haren was likely headed to the pen but Hyun-Jin Ryu’s injury forces the Dodgers to hold off on that demotion. Haren’s fastball now tops out at 87.2 MPH, down 2 MPH from last year. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that is quickly turning into a line-drive pitcher. Haren’s 32%/28%40% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his last five starts has warning flags written all over it. His ERA over that stretch is 5.60. Haren has now thrown 140 innings over 24 starts and has a dominant start/average start/disaster start split of 18%/53%/29%. He’s nothing more than an aging vet with declining skills that should be avoided in the season’s final six weeks.

In 24 starts, Wily Peralta is 14-7 with a 3.46 ERA. His 95-mph four-seamer gives hope for much more, especially with that consistent 55% groundball rate. Right-handed hitters have had virtually no chance against him the entire year with a BAA of just .210. Lefties have hit him hard in the past but Peralta is making gains against left-handed hitters recently and so it appears as though a minor tweak has improved his already strong game. The Brewers have now won four in a row and seven of 10 during this crucial stretch at this crucial time and this assignment against Haren is not nearly as difficult as some of those others.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sam Martin

MLB

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians

5* Cleveland Indians

Reason: 5* Play on Cleveland. Indians scored a walk-off winner against Baltimore on Friday night, and then dominated the O's from the first inning on yesterday in a 6-0 shutout victory. We'll back Cleveland to complete the sweep this afternoon, riding high on momentum and confidence and we like the pitching edge in the home team's favor.

Dannay Salazar has looked good since being recalled into the starting rotation going 3-1 in four starts and allowing just four earned runs in those three wins. He'll face a suddenly struggling Baltimore lineup that has only scored once in the two games played here in Cleveland this weekend. Indians have always been strong as a home favorite, going 61-30 the last two years and they carry their momentum over for another win this afternoon! 5* Play on Cleveland.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Spread Advisors

Over 8.5 -120 Seattle Mariners/Detroit Tigers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Butcher - MLB Breakdowns + Analysis - Sun 08/17

BAL @ CLE -117


Against ‘lefties’ Gausman has a 1.5 K/BB rate and 3.8 FIP. His 4.6 xFIP though is much higher, indicating that his HR-rate is way below average so far this season. As his HR/FB rate is at 4%, that definitely indicates that regression to the mean (about 10%) is in order. For Cleveland, Salazar will make his return from the minors once again. He has a 4.9 ERA on the season but his 3.5 SIERA and 3.7 xFIP indicates a much better pitcher. Of course the problem for him has been the homerun as his 1.4 HR/9 rate is really high to go along with an inflated 13% HR/FB. Salazar is a fly-ball pitcher and he’s going up against an O’s lineup that ranks 2nd overall in FB-rate in the majors. Indians are going for a home-sweep here but they are facing one of the better road teams in the league.


SEA @ DET -109


I don’t know how Chris Young is doing it but somehow he’s being very effective this year. For a guy with a mediocre 15% K-rate, unimpressive 8% BB-rate, high 1.2 HR/9, and 4.7/5.2/5.3 FxS he’s doing very well to have a 3.3 ERA on the season. When you consider the fact that his GB-rate is only 23% as he’s at a 59% FB-rate then what he’s doing is even more impressive. Of course the 4th lowest .226 BABIP and an inflated 82% strand-rate have a lot to do with this. Young also has a 4.3 road ERA compared to 2.4 at home. The advanced stats confirm that it’s not a fluke. He has a 2.4 K/BB rate with 0.7 HR/9, and 3.6 FIP at home this year while a 1.4 K/BB, 1.9 HR/9, and 6.1 FIP on the road. This is also his 2nd time facing the Tigers this season (and overall since last time he faced DET was in 2005) so you could expect them to have more success off him. Young is a strictly fastball/slider pitcher which could be an issue today. Detroit ranks 3rd against the ‘slider’ and 4th against the ‘fastball’ offensively. Will we see regression start taking place today? In his last 2 starts on the road @ LAA and @ CLE, Young allowed 17 hits, 7 ER”s, 3 HR’s in 11.1 innings. Detroit is ranked #2 offensively in case you didn’t know. As for Ray, he is as mediocre as they come as well. But he has 3 things working in his favor: i) It’s his first time facing Seattle, ii) he’s at home, and iii) he’s a lefty, and Seattle ranks 29th offensive against lefties this season.


CHC @ NYM +104


Arrieta is coming off 2 losses but one came @ Colorado (really tough place to pitch) and the other one was against Milwaukee where he allowed 2 ER’s but didn’t get any run support. Let’s not forget that Arrieta is still the 10th rated pitcher in all of baseball right now. He’ll be facing a Mets lineup that has a 69 wRC+ in the last 30-days, which means that they’re 31% worse than an average MLB offense at generating runs during this span. Consider the fact that David Wright is OUT for this one and now this offense is beginning to look even worse in today’s matchup. Another thing to consider are the bullpens. Chicago’s is pretty fresh while NY’s is notn. Familia pitched in 2 straight games and 3 out of the last 4 days, while Mejia (their closer) threw two days in a row prior to getting a day-off last night. Finally, this could be a good matchup for the Cubs due to the fact that they’re going up against Montero, NY’s young rookie pitcher. In 25 innings this year he’s allowed 13 BB’s and 8 HR’s. Cubs don’t have a great offense but they do rank 12th in ISO and have 113 HR”s on the season, ranking 11th in all of baseball (remember, they’re a NL team without a DH spot…3rd in NL in most homers). Could be a good spot for Arrieta to get back to his winning ways.


Statistical Breakdowns:

Chicago Cubs 52-70 (43%) @ New York Mets 59-65 (48%)

J. Arrieta, my #10 ranked SP, starting for Chicago Cubs, has a FIP of 2.37 (#5 in MLB), xFIP of 2.87 (#11 in MLB), and SIERA of 3 (#13 in MLB), with a BABIP of .282, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.41. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.9, with a WHIP of 1.05, and opponent BA of .212. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 49%, FB%: 30% for a 1.65 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 5%.

R. Montero, my #169 ranked SP, starting for New York Mets, has a FIP of 7.17 (#170 in MLB), xFIP of 4.71 (#163 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.72 (#161 in MLB), with a BABIP of .274, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of -1.05. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.62, with a WHIP of 1.64, and opponent BA of .275. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 44% for a 0.74 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 24%.

Chicago Cubs have the #19 bullpen, #25 offense (#29 vs Righties / #7 vs Lefties), and are rated #19 in fielding. They have a road record of 24-39 (38%), ranked #28 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.

New York Mets have the #22 bullpen, #23 offense (#20 vs Righties / #28 vs Lefties), and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a home record of 30-30 (50%), ranked #19 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.

Odds: CHC -113 (53%) NYM +104 (49%) O/U = 7

Lean: CHC
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Arizona Diamondbacks 53-70 (43%) @ Miami Marlins 61-62 (50%)

J. Collmenter, my #121 ranked SP, starting for Arizona Diamondbacks, has a FIP of 4.13 (#106 in MLB), xFIP of 4.23 (#119 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.28 (#120 in MLB), with a BABIP of .289, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of 0.13. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.69, with a WHIP of 1.27, and opponent BA of .262. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 39%, FB%: 42% for a 0.93 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

T. Koehler, my #119 ranked SP, starting for Miami Marlins, has a FIP of 3.96 (#92 in MLB), xFIP of 4.31 (#131 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.28 (#120 in MLB), with a BABIP of .272, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.1. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.06, with a WHIP of 1.26, and opponent BA of .233. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 39% for a 1.11 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.

Arizona Diamondbacks have the #11 bullpen, #24 offense (#23 vs Righties / #20 vs Lefties), and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a road record of 28-31 (47%), ranked #16 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Miami Marlins have the #12 bullpen, #18 offense (#17 vs Righties / #15 vs Lefties), and are rated #16 in fielding. They have a home record of 35-30 (54%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Odds: ARI +138 (42%) MIA -150 (60%) O/U = 7

Lean: ARZ
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San Diego Padres 58-64 (48%) @ St. Louis Cardinals 65-57 (53%)

O. Despaigne, my #137 ranked SP, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 3.98 (#94 in MLB), xFIP of 4.49 (#147 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.57 (#152 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -1.27. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.64, with a WHIP of 1.24, and opponent BA of .23. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 33% for a 1.46 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 6%.

A. Wainwright, my #30 ranked SP, starting for St. Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 2.77 (#13 in MLB), xFIP of 3.4 (#35 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.53 (#42 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.43. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.45, with a WHIP of 1.02, and opponent BA of .213. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 31% for a 1.47 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 4%.

San Diego Padres have the #3 bullpen, #30 offense (#29 vs Righties / #30 vs Lefties), and are rated #10 in fielding. They have a road record of 24-37 (39%), ranked #27 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

St. Louis Cardinals have the #14 bullpen, #16 offense (#18 vs Righties / #9 vs Lefties), and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a home record of 35-26 (57%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Odds: SDP +165 (38%) STL -180 (64%) O/U = 7

Lean: none
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Philadelphia Phillies 54-69 (44%) @ San Francisco Giants 64-58 (53%)

D. Buchanan, my #103 ranked SP, starting for Philadelphia Phillies, has a FIP of 4.36 (#129 in MLB), xFIP of 3.95 (#94 in MLB), and SIERA of 4 (#91 in MLB), with a BABIP of .281, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of 0.04. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.72, with a WHIP of 1.26, and opponent BA of .255. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 31% for a 1.56 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.

T. Lincecum, my #72 ranked SP, starting for San Francisco Giants, has a FIP of 4.01 (#98 in MLB), xFIP of 3.59 (#59 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.76 (#69 in MLB), with a BABIP of .296, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.52. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.38, with a WHIP of 1.34, and opponent BA of .247. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 30% for a 1.6 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.

Philadelphia Phillies have the #20 bullpen, #29 offense (#28 vs Righties / #19 vs Lefties), and are rated #26 in fielding. They have a road record of 28-33 (46%), ranked #17 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

San Francisco Giants have the #10 bullpen, #17 offense (#16 vs Righties / #13 vs Lefties), and are rated #16 in fielding. They have a home record of 31-32 (49%), ranked #21 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Odds: PHI +150 (40%) SFG -163 (62%) O/U = 7.5

Lean: none
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Cincinnati Reds 61-61 (50%) @ Colorado Rockies 47-75 (39%)

M. Latos, my #98 ranked SP, starting for Cincinnati Reds, has a FIP of 3.37 (#44 in MLB), xFIP of 4.17 (#115 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.29 (#125 in MLB), with a BABIP of .216, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of -0.43. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.61, with a WHIP of 0.94, and opponent BA of .19. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 37%, FB%: 41% for a 0.9 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 5%.

J. LYLES, my #96 ranked SP, starting for Colorado Rockies, has a FIP of 4.09 (#103 in MLB), xFIP of 3.86 (#86 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.06 (#98 in MLB), with a BABIP of .28, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.39. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.93, with a WHIP of 1.29, and opponent BA of .243. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 24%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 24% for a 2.14 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.

Cincinnati Reds have the #15 bullpen, #28 offense (#24 vs Righties / #25 vs Lefties), and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a road record of 29-32 (48%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Colorado Rockies have the #28 bullpen, #9 offense (#13 vs Righties / #5 vs Lefties), and are rated #20 in fielding. They have a home record of 29-31 (48%), ranked #22 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Odds: CIN -117 (54%) COL +108 (48%) O/U = 9

Lean: COL
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Milwaukee Brewers 69-55 (56%) @ Los Angeles Dodgers 70-55 (56%)

W. Peralta, my #77 ranked SP, starting for Milwaukee Brewers, has a FIP of 4.23 (#118 in MLB), xFIP of 3.62 (#65 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.72 (#66 in MLB), with a BABIP of .286, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of -0.77. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.58, with a WHIP of 1.28, and opponent BA of .255. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 55%, FB%: 27% for a 2.05 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 15%.

D. Haren, my #90 ranked SP, starting for Los Angeles Dodgers, has a FIP of 4.42 (#133 in MLB), xFIP of 3.76 (#78 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.84 (#80 in MLB), with a BABIP of .293, LOB% of 67%, and E-F of 0.08. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.66, with a WHIP of 1.29, and opponent BA of .267. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 37% for a 1.19 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 14%.

Milwaukee Brewers have the #4 bullpen, #11 offense (#9 vs Righties / #17 vs Lefties), and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a road record of 35-27 (56%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.

Los Angeles Dodgers have the #21 bullpen, #4 offense (#4 vs Righties / #16 vs Lefties), and are rated #21 in fielding. They have a home record of 30-29 (51%), ranked #17 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.

Odds: MIL +104 (49%) LAD -113 (53%) O/U = 8

Lean: LAD
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Pittsburgh Pirates 64-59 (52%) @ Washington Nationals 68-53 (56%)

E. Volquez, my #134 ranked SP, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 4.46 (#135 in MLB), xFIP of 4.31 (#131 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.37 (#133 in MLB), with a BABIP of .264, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.73. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.82, with a WHIP of 1.28, and opponent BA of .238. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 33% for a 1.53 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

D. Fister, my #70 ranked SP, starting for Washington Nationals, has a FIP of 3.63 (#62 in MLB), xFIP of 3.73 (#74 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.83 (#79 in MLB), with a BABIP of .271, LOB% of 85%, and E-F of -1.29. He has a K/BB ratio of 5.31, with a WHIP of 1.07, and opponent BA of .246. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 35% for a 1.36 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

Pittsburgh Pirates have the #23 bullpen, #3 offense (#3 vs Righties / #23 vs Lefties), and are rated #28 in fielding. They have a road record of 25-35 (42%), ranked #24 in MLB and have Lost 4 in a row.

Washington Nationals have the #5 bullpen, #15 offense (#15 vs Righties / #12 vs Lefties), and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a home record of 36-24 (60%), ranked #5 in MLB and have Won 5 in a row.

Odds: PIT +146 (41%) WSN -158 (61%) O/U = 7

Lean: none
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Seattle Mariners 66-56 (54%) @ Detroit Tigers 66-55 (55%)

C. Young, my #168 ranked SP, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a FIP of 4.73 (#150 in MLB), xFIP of 5.19 (#169 in MLB), and SIERA of 5.26 (#169 in MLB), with a BABIP of .226, LOB% of 82%, and E-F of -1.49. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.87, with a WHIP of 1.14, and opponent BA of .217. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 23%, FB%: 59% for a 0.4 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

R. Ray, my #147 ranked SP, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a FIP of 3.69 (#66 in MLB), xFIP of 4.75 (#166 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.81 (#165 in MLB), with a BABIP of .354, LOB% of 65%, and E-F of 1.8. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.63, with a WHIP of 1.63, and opponent BA of .304. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 37%, FB%: 40% for a 0.93 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 4%.

Seattle Mariners have the #1 bullpen, #21 offense (#14 vs Righties / #29 vs Lefties), and are rated #15 in fielding. They have a road record of 32-24 (57%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Detroit Tigers have the #26 bullpen, #2 offense (#6 vs Righties / #2 vs Lefties), and are rated #27 in fielding. They have a home record of 33-28 (54%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Odds: SEA +101 (50%) DET -109 (52%) O/U = 8.5

Lean: DET
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Baltimore Orioles 69-52 (57%) @ Cleveland Indians 62-60 (51%)

K. Gausman, my #111 ranked SP, starting for Baltimore Orioles, has a FIP of 3.5 (#55 in MLB), xFIP of 4.25 (#121 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.47 (#140 in MLB), with a BABIP of .321, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.39. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.84, with a WHIP of 1.42, and opponent BA of .271. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 34% for a 1.25 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 4%.

D. Salazar, my #71 ranked SP, starting for Cleveland Indians, has a FIP of 4.2 (#116 in MLB), xFIP of 3.72 (#72 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.52 (#40 in MLB), with a BABIP of .351, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.68. He has a K/BB ratio of 3, with a WHIP of 1.5, and opponent BA of .281. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 44% for a 0.74 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.

Baltimore Orioles have the #18 bullpen, #8 offense (#8 vs Righties / #8 vs Lefties), and are rated #2 in fielding. They have a road record of 35-26 (57%), ranked #2 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.

Cleveland Indians have the #9 bullpen, #7 offense (#2 vs Righties / #27 vs Lefties), and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a home record of 37-23 (62%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.

Odds: BAL +108 (48%) CLE -117 (54%) O/U = 8

Lean: none
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Houston Astros 51-73 (41%) @ Boston Red Sox 56-66 (46%)

C. McHugh, my #26 ranked SP, starting for Houston Astros, has a FIP of 3.38 (#46 in MLB), xFIP of 3.18 (#23 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.16 (#19 in MLB), with a BABIP of .254, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.3. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.37, with a WHIP of 1.06, and opponent BA of .199. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 25%, GB%: 40%, FB%: 36% for a 1.12 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

J. Kelly, my #99 ranked SP, starting for Boston Red Sox, has a FIP of 3.9 (#84 in MLB), xFIP of 4.03 (#100 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.12 (#107 in MLB), with a BABIP of .301, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.15. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.82, with a WHIP of 1.38, and opponent BA of .262. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 55%, FB%: 24% for a 2.33 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

Houston Astros have the #27 bullpen, #14 offense (#19 vs Righties / #4 vs Lefties), and are rated #30 in fielding. They have a road record of 22-37 (37%), ranked #29 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Boston Red Sox have the #7 bullpen, #27 offense (#25 vs Righties / #21 vs Lefties), and are rated #4 in fielding. They have a home record of 29-32 (48%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Odds: HOU +123 (45%) BOS -133 (57%) O/U = 8.5

Lean: HOU
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New York Yankees 62-59 (51%) @ Tampa Bay Rays 61-62 (50%)

H. Kuroda, my #82 ranked SP, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 3.92 (#88 in MLB), xFIP of 3.82 (#81 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.91 (#86 in MLB), with a BABIP of .286, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of 0.11. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.26, with a WHIP of 1.22, and opponent BA of .256. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 33% for a 1.45 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

J. Hellickson, my #112 ranked SP, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of 3.88 (#83 in MLB), xFIP of 4.34 (#133 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.17 (#113 in MLB), with a BABIP of .278, LOB% of 94%, and E-F of -1.86. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.33, with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .245. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 31%, FB%: 50% for a 0.61 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.

New York Yankees have the #6 bullpen, #19 offense (#21 vs Righties / #14 vs Lefties), and are rated #22 in fielding. They have a road record of 33-30 (52%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Tampa Bay Rays have the #17 bullpen, #10 offense (#11 vs Righties / #3 vs Lefties), and are rated #7 in fielding. They have a home record of 28-33 (46%), ranked #25 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Odds: NYY +105 (49%) TBR -114 (53%) O/U = 7

Lean: none
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Toronto Blue Jays 64-60 (52%) @ Chicago White Sox 58-65 (47%)

D. Hutchison, my #87 ranked SP, starting for Toronto Blue Jays, has a FIP of 3.91 (#85 in MLB), xFIP of 4.05 (#104 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.86 (#82 in MLB), with a BABIP of .295, LOB% of 70%, and E-F of 0.69. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.82, with a WHIP of 1.29, and opponent BA of .248. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 35%, FB%: 45% for a 0.79 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

S. Carroll, my #155 ranked SP, starting for Chicago White Sox, has a FIP of 4.92 (#157 in MLB), xFIP of 4.63 (#157 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.54 (#149 in MLB), with a BABIP of .327, LOB% of 64%, and E-F of 0.7. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.48, with a WHIP of 1.6, and opponent BA of .304. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 53%, FB%: 26% for a 2.01 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.

Toronto Blue Jays have the #29 bullpen, #5 offense (#1 vs Righties / #22 vs Lefties), and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a road record of 31-34 (48%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Chicago White Sox have the #30 bullpen, #12 offense (#10 vs Righties / #24 vs Lefties), and are rated #25 in fielding. They have a home record of 30-29 (51%), ranked #17 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Odds: TOR -137 (58%) CHW +126 (44%) O/U = 9

Lean: CHW
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Kansas City Royals 67-55 (55%) @ Minnesota Twins 55-66 (46%)

J. Guthrie, my #136 ranked SP, starting for Kansas City Royals, has a FIP of 4.47 (#137 in MLB), xFIP of 4.39 (#138 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.33 (#131 in MLB), with a BABIP of .303, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.02. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.51, with a WHIP of 1.35, and opponent BA of .276. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 42%, FB%: 38% for a 1.12 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

T. Milone, my #146 ranked SP, starting for Minnesota Twins, has a FIP of 4.59 (#145 in MLB), xFIP of 4.49 (#147 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.47 (#140 in MLB), with a BABIP of .266, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -1.07. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.28, with a WHIP of 1.25, and opponent BA of .248. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 38%, FB%: 42% for a 0.91 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

Kansas City Royals have the #16 bullpen, #22 offense (#22 vs Righties / #18 vs Lefties), and are rated #1 in fielding. They have a road record of 34-27 (56%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Minnesota Twins have the #25 bullpen, #13 offense (#12 vs Righties / #26 vs Lefties), and are rated #23 in fielding. They have a home record of 26-31 (46%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Odds: KCR -104 (51%) MIN -104 (51%) O/U = 8

Lean: MIN
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LAA Angels 72-49 (60%) @ Texas Rangers 47-76 (38%)

H. Santiago, my #141 ranked SP, starting for LAA Angels, has a FIP of 4.12 (#104 in MLB), xFIP of 4.65 (#160 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.37 (#133 in MLB), with a BABIP of .27, LOB% of 67%, and E-F of -0.2. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.15, with a WHIP of 1.28, and opponent BA of .229. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 29%, FB%: 53% for a 0.55 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.

N. Tepesch, my #162 ranked SP, starting for Texas Rangers, has a FIP of 4.91 (#156 in MLB), xFIP of 4.59 (#153 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.77 (#163 in MLB), with a BABIP of .264, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.71. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.79, with a WHIP of 1.27, and opponent BA of .253. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 25%, GB%: 39%, FB%: 36% for a 1.1 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.

LAA Angels have the #13 bullpen, #1 offense (#7 vs Righties / #1 vs Lefties), and are rated #9 in fielding. They have a road record of 31-26 (54%), ranked #8 in MLB and have Won 4 in a row.

Texas Rangers have the #24 bullpen, #26 offense (#27 vs Righties / #11 vs Lefties), and are rated #24 in fielding. They have a home record of 22-38 (37%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Lost 4 in a row.

Odds: LAA -141 (59%) TEX +130 (43%) O/U = 9.5

Lean: none
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Oakland Athletics 73-50 (59%) @ Atlanta Braves 63-60 (51%)

J. Lester, my #13 ranked SP, starting for Oakland Athletics, has a FIP of 2.53 (#7 in MLB), xFIP of 3.03 (#15 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.03 (#14 in MLB), with a BABIP of .307, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.02. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.57, with a WHIP of 1.11, and opponent BA of .234. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 36% for a 1.2 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 6%.

M. Minor, my #89 ranked SP, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a FIP of 4.51 (#139 in MLB), xFIP of 3.72 (#72 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.79 (#71 in MLB), with a BABIP of .358, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.82. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.13, with a WHIP of 1.58, and opponent BA of .308. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 26%, GB%: 38%, FB%: 36% for a 1.07 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 15%.

Oakland Athletics have the #8 bullpen, #6 offense (#5 vs Righties / #10 vs Lefties), and are rated #5 in fielding. They have a road record of 33-29 (53%), ranked #9 in MLB and have Lost 4 in a row.

Atlanta Braves have the #2 bullpen, #20 offense (#26 vs Righties / #6 vs Lefties), and are rated #7 in fielding. They have a home record of 36-28 (56%), ranked #8 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.

Odds: OAK -142 (59%) ATL +131 (43%) O/U = 7

Lean: none
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Cincinnati Reds 61-61 (50%) @ Colorado Rockies 47-75 (39%)

D. Axelrod's pitching data has a small sample size.

Y. Flande, my #93 ranked SP, starting for Colorado Rockies, has a FIP of 3.99 (#95 in MLB), xFIP of 3.88 (#89 in MLB), and SIERA of 4.04 (#95 in MLB), with a BABIP of .295, LOB% of 58%, and E-F of 1.6. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.8, with a WHIP of 1.32, and opponent BA of .273. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 60%, FB%: 21% for a 2.79 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

Cincinnati Reds have the #15 bullpen, #28 offense (#24 vs Righties / #25 vs Lefties), and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a road record of 29-32 (48%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Colorado Rockies have the #28 bullpen, #9 offense (#13 vs Righties / #5 vs Lefties), and are rated #20 in fielding. They have a home record of 29-31 (48%), ranked #22 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Odds: CIN +105 (49%) COL -114 (53%) O/U = 10.5

Lean: COL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker

Detroit Tigers

New York Yankees

Chicago White Sox

Milwaukee Brewers

Atlanta Braves

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph's

Super Pk Washington Nationals w/ Fister

Trophy Play Kansas City Chiefs + 3 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Newworldinsiders

LA insider Los Angeles Dodgers -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo


Tampa Bay Rays ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bruce Marshall

Pittsburgh Pirates

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

2% 49ers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon


Ben lee had the splits in MLB on Saturday winning in the American League with the Red Sox -$170/Astros and losing in the National League with the Dodgers -$200/Brewers.

For Sunday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Nationals -$160/Pirates.

Ben lee is 2-4 -$160 for week Forty Two 189-221-5 -$3012

"Mr Chalk" is 63-47 -$405 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino

MLB Handicappers


Mike: (9-3) - Oakland


John: (8-4) - Tampa Bay


Jim: (9-5) - none


BD: (7-3) - Minnesota


Tom: (6-0) - Miami


Tex: (6-1) - phillies/giants over 7.5


MH: (2-3) - LA Angels


Len: (2-1) - mariners/tigers over 8.5


Brian: (0-0) - Oakland

Today's Selections


NFL: San Francisco -4.5


WNBA

Dream/Sun Under 156.5

Mercury/Storm Under 148.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Stoffo

Under Kansas City Chiefs/Carolina Panthers