8-19-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFF CLEMENT

7* Mariners vs Phillies – Under 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
TUESDAY, AUGUST 19th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#951 ATLANTA @ #952 PITTSBURGH - 7:05 PM
•Braves RH Aaron Harang (9-7, 3.51 ERA, WHIP: 1.412) - Harang is winless over his last six starts despite posting a 3.47 ERA in that span. The worst outing of the stretch came Thursday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who got to the veteran for five runs in 4 1/3 innings. Harang is 9-4 with a 4.25 ERA in 13 starts at Pittsburgh and 15-7 all-time versus the Pirates.

--KEY STAT: HARANG is 9-23 (-15.6 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 3.2, OPPONENT 4.2.

--HARANG is 10-1 OVER (+9.1 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 3.0, OPPONENT 7.7.

•Pirates LH Francisco Liriano (3-9, 3.78 ERA, WHIP: 1.286) - Liriano has a 2.36 ERA in seven starts since returning from the disabled list but just two wins to show for it. He let up two runs and struck out nine in six strong innings Thursday in Detroit, but the Pirates wound up on the wrong end of a 5-2 decision. Liriano, who has let up two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four home outings, has not faced Atlanta since June 11, 2010, when as a member of the Minnesota Twins he fanned 11 and yielded one run in eight outstanding innings.

--KEY STAT: LIRIANO is 8-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LIRIANO 4.5, OPPONENT 1.4.

--LIRIANO is 20-7 UNDER (+12.1 Units) after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LIRIANO 3.5, OPPONENT 3.1.

#953 ARIZONA @ #954 WASHINGTON - 7:05 PM
•Diamondbacks RH Chase Anderson (7-4, 3.16 ERA, WHIP: 1.301) - Anderson enters with a six-start unbeaten streak during which he is 2-0 while allowing more than two runs only once. The 26-year-old settled for a no-decision at Miami on Thursday, when he yielded three runs on nine hits and two walks in six innings. Anderson won his first two road outings of the season but is 0-2 in four turns away from home since emerging victorious at Colorado on June 3.

•Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (9-10, 3.53 ERA, WHIP: 1.206) - Strasburg is coming off a dominant performance against the Mets in New York on Thursday, when he allowed just an unearned run and three hits while striking out eight over seven innings. The 26-year-old has won two of three following a three-start losing streak, yielding one unearned run and six hits with 18 strikeouts over 14 frames in the victories. Strasburg suffered his first loss in five career starts against the Diamondbacks on May 13 at Arizona despite giving up only three runs in seven innings.

--KEY STAT: STRASBURG is 12-29 against the run line (-19.6 Units) when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 3.5, OPPONENT 3.8.

--STRASBURG is 23-12 OVER (+10.8 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 4.4, OPPONENT 4.1.

--STRASBURG is 24-9 OVER (+14.6 Units) after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 4.5, OPPONENT 4.7.

#955 SAN FRANCISCO @ #956 CHICAGO CUBS - 8:05 PM
•Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (7-8, 3.71 ERA, WHIP: 1.251) - Vogelsong turned in his third straight strong start last Tuesday, but settled for a no-decision despite giving up two runs on three hits in seven frames in a 3-2 home setback to the Chicago White Sox. The Giants have lost each of the 10-year-veteran’s last seven turns at home, but won each of his previous three road outings. Vogelsong, who is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in three August turns after going 0-4 with a 4.55 ERA in July, is 5-5 with a 5.75 ERA in 16 all-time appearances (10 starts) against the Cubs.

--KEY STAT: VOGELSONG is 8-0 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 5.1, OPPONENT 2.8.

--VOGELSONG is 15-4 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.3, OPPONENT 2.8.

--VOGELSONG is 9-0 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 5.3, OPPONENT 2.9.

--VOGELSONG is 9-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.8, OPPONENT 3.1.

--VOGELSONG is 31-9 against the run line (+21.5 Units) in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.8, OPPONENT 3.5.

--VOGELSONG is 30-10 against the run line (+18.6 Units) in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.9, OPPONENT 3.9.

•Cubs LH Tsuyoshi Wada (2-1, 3.15 ERA, WHIP: 1.165) - Despite surrendering two home runs for the first time in six career turns, Wada allowed only three other hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 4-2 victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday. The 33-year-old Japanese import has posted a 2-0 record and 2.49 ERA over his last four outings – yielding two runs or fewer each time. Wada, who will face San Francisco for the first time, has limited opponents to a .218 average over his four home starts and held left-handed batters to a .143 mark.
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#957 CINCINNATI @ #958 ST LOUIS - 8:15 PM
•Reds RH Alfredo Simon (12-8, 3.28 ERA, WHIP: 1.182) - Simon is 0-5 with a 5.46 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break after giving up a career-high seven runs (five earned) in five innings of a 7-3 loss at Colorado on Thursday. He has lasted five innings or fewer in five of those six outings after getting through at least six frames in 16 of 18 starts prior to the break. The 33-year-old, who has 14 career games but no starts against St. Louis, has eight strikeouts against nine walks in his last three appearances.

--KEY STAT: SIMON is 14-3 (+11.8 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SIMON 3.9, OPPONENT 2.2.

--SIMON is 15-4 (+12.1 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SIMON 4.2, OPPONENT 2.5.

--SIMON is 14-3 (+11.7 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SIMON 3.9, OPPONENT 2.3.

--SIMON is 14-3 UNDER (+10.5 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SIMON 3.9, OPPONENT 2.3.

•Cardinals RH John Lackey (12-8, 3.91 ERA, WHIP: 1.273) - Lackey rebounded from a rocky outings at Baltimore on Aug. 9 with seven solid innings in a no-decision against San Diego on Thursday. He let up two runs in seven innings in a game the Cardinals would eventually win 4-3. Lackey, who yielded one earned run in six innings in his only prior start against Cincinnati, has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six outings overall.

--KEY STAT: LACKEY is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 2.8, OPPONENT 2.1.

--LACKEY is 15-4 UNDER (+10.5 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 4.1, OPPONENT 3.2.

--LACKEY is 12-3 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in home games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.9, OPPONENT 3.2.

--LACKEY is 13-2 UNDER (+10.6 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.3, OPPONENT 2.9.

--LACKEY is 11-1 UNDER (+9.8 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.4, OPPONENT 2.7.

#959 SAN DIEGO @ #960 LA DODGERS - 10:10 PM
•Padres RH Ian Kennedy (9-10, 3.54 ERA, WHIP: 1.247) - Kennedy has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts, including last Wednesday when he limited Colorado to three runs over six frames in a 5-3 victory. “I made some mistakes with my changeup, but for the most part I was pretty happy with how I felt,” Kennedy told MLB.com. “Best I’ve felt in a while.” Andre Ethier is 11-for-34 with two homers against the Huntington Beach, Calif. native, who is 5-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 14 career starts against the Dodgers.

--KEY STAT: KENNEDY is 11-1 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENNEDY 2.7, OPPONENT 2.5.

--KENNEDY is 16-5 UNDER (+10.1 Units) in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENNEDY 4.0, OPPONENT 3.2.

•Dodgers RH Kevin Correia (6-13, 4.79 ERA, WHIP: 1.426) - Correia made an impressive Dodgers debut against Atlanta last Monday while yielding one run over six frames in a 6-2 victory. The San Diego native, who pitched for the Padres for two seasons from 2009-2010, went 5-13 with a 4.94 ERA with Minnesota before he was acquired by Los Angeles on Aug. 9. Correia is 4-3 with a 4.77 ERA in 24 career games (10 starts) against San Diego, and he held the Padres to three runs over six innings in his final start for the Twins on Aug. 6.

--KEY STAT: CORREIA is 6-21 (-12.7 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CORREIA 3.1, OPPONENT 5.1.

--CORREIA is 43-25 (+26.6 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was CORREIA 4.7, OPPONENT 3.7.

--CORREIA is 28-13 (+17.7 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was CORREIA 5.1, OPPONENT 4.0.

--CORREIA is 7-24 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CORREIA 3.0, OPPONENT 5.0.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
TUESDAY, AUGUST 19th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________

#961 HOUSTON @ #962 NY YANKEES - 7:05 PM
•Astros LH Brett Oberholtzer (4-8, 3.87 ERA, WHIP: 1.318) - Oberholtzer suffered his first loss since July 3 despite yielding just one run on six hits in seven innings en route to a 3-1 setback to Minnesota on Wednesday. The 25-year-old has lowered his ERA after each of his last six starts, shaving nearly a full run in the process. Oberholtzer has dropped both career meetings with the Yankees, permitting three runs in 5 2/3 innings in his last encounter on April 3.

--KEY STAT: OBERHOLTZER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.8 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was OBERHOLTZER 2.9, OPPONENT 3.6.

•Yankees LH Chris Capuano (1-3, 4.13 ERA, WHIP: 1.376) - Capuano will be pitching on his 36th birthday and would love to give himself a nifty present by notching his first victory with his new team. The veteran fell to 0-2 with a 3.60 ERA in four starts with New York after allowing four runs on six hits in as many innings en route to an 11-3 loss versus Baltimore on Aug. 11. Capuano owns an impressive 7-4 mark with a 3.15 ERA in his career against Houston.

--KEY STAT: CAPUANO is 23-39 (-21.2 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was CAPUANO 4.2, OPPONENT 5.0.

--CAPUANO is 29-12 UNDER (+15.9 Units) after a game where he did not walk a batter since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was CAPUANO 3.6, OPPONENT 4.0.

#963 LA ANGELS @ #964 BOSTON - 7:10 PM
•Angels RH Jered Weaver (13-7, 3.66 ERA, WHIP: 1.207) - Weaver had a nine-start unbeaten streak snapped by Boston on Aug. 8, when he surrendering four runs and seven hits over six innings to drop to 4-6 lifetime in 15 career starts against the Red Sox. Weaver bounced back to limit Philadelphia to two runs over six innings on Wednesday to improve to 6-1 in his last 11 turns. Former teammate Mike Napoli has tormented Weaver, collecting 10 hits and hitting three homers in 29 at-bats.

--KEY STAT: WEAVER is 8-1 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 6.2, OPPONENT 5.2.

--WEAVER is 41-13 UNDER (+26.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 3.6, OPPONENT 3.2.

--WEAVER is 21-6 OVER (+14.8 Units) in road games against American League East opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 6.1, OPPONENT 5.9.

•Red Sox RH Allen Webster (3-1, 4.79 ERA, WHIP: 1.451) - Webster has won his last two starts, although Boston's offense bailed him out of a four-run deficit in a victory over Houston last time out. He had his best outing of the season against the Angels earlier this month, allowing two runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings. The biggest issue for the hard-throwing Webster is control, or lack thereof - he has walked 16 and struck out only 10 over 20 2/3 innings in his four starts.

--KEY STAT: WEBSTER is 7-0 OVER (+7.2 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEBSTER 7.0, OPPONENT 7.1.
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#965 DETROIT @ #966 TAMPA BAY - 7:10 PM
•Tigers RH Max Scherzer (14-4, 2.98 ERA, WHIP: 1.136) - Scherzer has been outstanding in his last 10 starts while allowing two or fewer runs in nine of them, including eight scoreless innings to beat Pittsburgh on Thursday. The 30-year-old boasts 196 strikeouts and only 46 walks - 25 and two in his last two outings - over 169 innings. Yunel Escobar is 11-for-30 with a homer against Scherzer, who is 4-2 in seven career games versus the Rays with a 2.56 ERA.

--KEY STAT: SCHERZER is 29-7 (+16.7 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SCHERZER 5.4, OPPONENT 3.0.

--SCHERZER is 33-10 (+16.4 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SCHERZER 5.2, OPPONENT 3.3.

--SCHERZER is 9-26 against the run line (-19.6 Units) in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SCHERZER 3.9, OPPONENT 4.5.

•Rays RH Chris Archer (8-6, 3.24 ERA, WHIP: 1.279) - Archer has permitted three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts after limiting Texas to one run in seven innings while striking out a career-high 12 last Wednesday. The North Carolina native surrendered two runs - on homers by Alex Avila and J.D. Martinez - in a season-high 8 1/3 innings to win at Detroit on July 5. Archer yielded just one home run in his last six starts and six in 24 outings overall.

--KEY STAT: ARCHER is 11-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ARCHER 4.8, OPPONENT 2.6.

--ARCHER is 0-6 (-7.1 Units) against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ARCHER 1.8, OPPONENT 5.2.

#967 CLEVELAND @ #968 MINNESOTA - 8:10 PM
•Indians RH Trevor Bauer (4-7, 4.35 ERA, WHIP: 1.421) - Bauer's winless streak reached five starts Wednesday as he settled for a no-decision against Arizona despite allowing only two runs and four hits with nine strikeouts in a career-high eight innings. The 23-year-old has not won since yielding three runs in six frames against the Tigers in Detroit on July 18 for his first victory in six road decisions this season. Bauer followed that triumph with a loss at Minnesota five days later, as he also gave up three runs over six innings in his first career meeting with the Twins.

--KEY STAT: BAUER is 0-6 against the run line (-9.2 Units) in road games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAUER 2.7, OPPONENT 5.0.

--BAUER is 0-6 against the run line (-9.2 Units) in road games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAUER 2.7, OPPONENT 5.0.

•Twins RH Kyle Gibson (11-9, 3.96 ERA, WHIP: 1.224) - Gibson makes his first home start after a string of four consecutive road outings during which he went 3-1. The 26-year-old limited Houston to one run and six hits over 7 2/3 innings on Wednesday as he improved to 7-6 in 15 turns on the road this season. Gibson was victorious against the Indians on the road in his season debut on April 5 and settled for a no-decision in Cleveland on May 5, allowing a total of one run and five hits over 12 innings.

--KEY STAT: GIBSON is 12-5 (+10.2 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was GIBSON 4.9, OPPONENT 2.2.

--GIBSON is 10-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was GIBSON 5.3, OPPONENT 2.3.

--GIBSON is 6-1 (+7.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was GIBSON 5.9, OPPONENT 2.4.

--GIBSON is 11-1 OVER (+10.1 Units) versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GIBSON 6.6, OPPONENT 5.0.

--GIBSON is 12-3 OVER (+9.1 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GIBSON 6.1, OPPONENT 4.5.

#969 BALTIMORE @ #970 CHI WHITE SOX - 8:10 PM
•Orioles RH Chris Tillman (9-5, 3.68 ERA, WHIP: 1.257) - Tillman pitched well enough to win his third consecutive start, but settled for a no-decision despite allowing two runs on five hits in seven innings against the Yankees on Wednesday. The 26-year-old keeps a tidy 6-0 mark away from home, although his ERA on the road is a full run higher (4.68) than his 2014 total. Tillman improved to 2-1 in his career versus the White Sox after limiting them to just one hit in seven scoreless innings in his last meeting.

--KEY STAT: TILLMAN is 15-4 (+10.5 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 4.7, OPPONENT 2.9.

--TILLMAN is 28-16 (+12.9 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 4.7, OPPONENT 3.5.

--TILLMAN is 29-13 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 5.0, OPPONENT 3.5.

•White Sox LH Jose Quintana (6-9, 3.14 ERA, WHIP: 1.228) - Quintana deserved a better fate in his last outing, but San Francisco scored its first run on a controversial replay review in the seventh before exploding on the bullpen. The 25-year-old Colombian was charged with four runs on as many hits to suffer his second straight loss. Quintana improved to 1-2 versus Baltimore in his career after allowing one run on six hits in seven innings en route to a 4-2 victory on June 24.

--KEY STAT: QUINTANA is 15-4 UNDER (+10.4 Units) versus an American League team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 2.9, OPPONENT 4.1.

--QUINTANA is 15-3 UNDER (+11.5 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 2.8, OPPONENT 4.1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

These are definitely two teams headed in different directions as the Orioles come off an 8-2 win over the White Sox on Monday night and now hold a 7.5 game lead in the AL East. The Orioles will give the rock to Chris Tillman (9-5, 3.68) tonight to face off with Chicago's Jose Quintana (6-9, 3.14) Tillman has been fantastic away from Camden Yards this year, sporting a perfct 6-0 road mark while Quintana has dropped his last two decisions. A really interesting trend in this game is the fact that the White Sox are just 3-13 in Quintana's last 16 starts vs. teams with a winning record and 0-4 in Quinatana's last four starts as a home doggie. The Orioles have done a good job feasting on lefties as they are 5-0 in their last five road games vs. a left-handed starter and 10-4 in their last 14 games overall. Tillman limited these White Sox to only one hit in seven scoreless innings last time he faced Chicago and while Quintana can be tough to hit at times, the Orioles have all of the momentum right now. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - BALTIMORE ORIOLES (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LCM Sports

Seattle Mariners

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PhillyGodFather

MLB (952) TOTAL UNS 7.5 -110 (ATLANTA BRAVES Vrs PITT PIRATES)

MLB (966) DETROIT TIGERS VS TB RAYS UNS 7 -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Insurance Adjusters MLB

KC -1.5 Even
Milw -1.5 +140
Sea -1.5 Even


Free play Oak -1.5 Even
3* Unless otherwise noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks

Carson K

Astros +149 Oberholtzer is pitching well and the bats for the Yanks are cold.

WhSox +100 I like Quintana here (pitching well at home) and I think he gets run support with Tillman on the hill.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph's
Super pk Royals w/ Shields -170
Blue Ribbon Tigers w/ Scherzer -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

Cleveland @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA +101 over Cleveland

No interest whatsoever in the Indians as road chalk. Cleveland is 25-37 on the road and they dropped two of three here exactly a month ago. In that three game set they faced Twins’ starters, Kris Johnson, Yohan Pino and Anthony Swarzak. That trio may just be the worst three starters in succession that any team has faced this season. Things get much tougher for the Tribe here. Kyle Gibson is a starter to keep high on your radar. He’s flashing the upside that made him a premium prospect a few years ago. His skills have improved month by month since April and they are still improving. His control has improved in each month and he has gained velocity on his fastball in each month too. Gibson’s elite 56% groundball rate for the season and excellent 12% swinging strike rate over the last month suggest great profit potential the rest of the year and into the start of next year.

It may surprise you to learn that the Twins are the hottest hitting team in MLB during the month of August, where they have a MLB best .781 OPS. That group now gets to face Trevor Bauer and the weak defense behind him.Bauer has shown the typical highs and lows of a young pitcher over his last five starts. In that time, he has thrown a pair of gems and a pair of disasters, while posting a 5.61 ERA. Bauer’s profile has many issues that include too many walks issued, (13 over his past 29 innings and 41 on the year), a fly-ball lean of 42% against just 33% groundballs and a WHIP of 1.42 (anything over 1.30 is playing with fire). Bauer has upside but at this point in his brief career he is much more appealing as a dog than he is as a favorite on the road. The Indians are wrongly billed as the favorite in this one and we’re on it.


Our Pick
MINNESOTA +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers


L.A. Angels @ BOSTON
BOSTON +113 over L.A. Angels

The Red Sox are not used to playing meaningless games in mid to late August or in September but they will have to endure this year. Still, the role of the spoiler is one every team loves and the Red Sox are not going down without a fight against these contenders. Allen Webster’s first opportunity to sit at the adult table in 2013 did not go well: 8.60 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 7 HR, and a 23/18 K/BB in 30.1 IP for the Red Sox. With Jake Peavy now calling the Pacific home again, Webster gets the opportunity to prove he’s ready to be a long term Fenway fixture. Some publications had Webster ranked as high as the #32 overall prospect for 2014. Webster was traded from the Dodgers in the Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett blockbuster, immediately showcasing the best pure pitchability in the system. Webster operates with a plus fastball (93-98) and change-up (82-84), both with good sink, alongside an average curve and useable slider, all from a repeatable delivery. Despite being drafted in the 18th round (2008), Webster’s stuff screams frontline starter with a high strikeout rate. However, his difficulty in commanding his fastball, his inability to get lefties out with the change and his confidence and trust in his pure stuff has limited his production, and significantly lowers his floor. Where he ends up (starter or reliever) depends on transitioning his overall positive skill numbers to the major league game. Webster put up impressive numbers at Pawtucket over two seasons in 227 innings, which includes a .232 oppBA. He’s only made four starts with Boston but what sticks out is his elite 15% line-drive rate over those four starts, which was the lowest mark in the majors over the past four starts. He also had a 55% groundball rate in his last start. Webster is a risk because of the issues mentioned above and because he’s wild (16 BB in 21 innings). However, if he’s throwing strikes, he’s wickedly good. If he were favored, we wouldn’t risk it but as a pooch at home, he’s worth the risk.

Jered Weaver picked up a win in his last start in Philadelphia. He surrendered 8 hits in the first four innings and also walked two batters. 10 base-runners, four jams and Weaver once again pulled his Houdini act by allowing just two runs in those first four innings. He was a base hit away from getting blown up on several occasions. Weaver continues to be overvalued because of his history and his solid surface stats (3.66 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). A closer look suggests that he has no value, especially on the road where he gives up plenty of jacks, his command erodes and his fly-ball tilt becomes more pronounced. Over his last six starts, Weaver has the worst groundball/fly-ball rate in the majors at 27%/51%. Over that span he has posted a 1.48 WHIP with an xERA of 5.68. His fastball velocity has dipped three straight years and at some point his ability to outpitch his skills will catch up to him. Yeah, it’s redundant, as we’ve been saying that all season but nothing has changed. Jered Weaver has some of the worst skills in the game and there is no way he can maintain his surface ERA for much longer. Clunk, clunk, clunk and clunk, that’s the sound you’ll hear tonight of balls bouncing off the Green Monster when Weaver is on the mound.


Our Pick
BOSTON +113 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.26)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

Toronto @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE -1½ +144 over Toronto

On August 7, J.A. Happ struck out 12 Orioles. Five days later he struck out one batter in Seattle in six innings. Over his last four starts, Happ has had two strong games and two poor ones. His dominant start/disaster start split this season, and his entire career, nicely summarizes his feast-or-famine ways. As a fly-ball pitcher with shaky control, it's hard to see the disasters suddenly stopping. It is best to stay clear of him, especially at this hitter’s park against the heating up again Brewers.

Milwaukee just swept the Dodgers in Los Angeles and defeated Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw in the process. The Brewers scored 16 times in that three game set and that’s quite an accomplishment when you consider the venue and the starters. Mike Fiers has made a splash in his two starts since joining the rotation, striking out 14 in just six innings in his last start. He has displayed these skills before, as in 2012 he had a 3.37 xERA to go along with 9.5 K’s/9 in 22 starts. At AAA-Nashville this season, he had 11.3 K’s/9 Dom in 17 starts. Fiers comes along at precisely the right time for the Brewers and he’ll now face a Blue Jays team that has lost five of six, that is without the services of a DH and that has averaged only 2.9 runs per game in August, which is the worst mark in MLB.


Our Pick
MILWAUKEE -1½ +144 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.88)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BookieMonster POD:

Minnesota -101

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BookieMonster Money Generator Plays:

Boston +110
Tampa Bay +112
San Diego +103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):


2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ New York Yankees - ASTROS TO WIN (+150)
Listed Pitchers: Oberholtzer vs Capuano
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.00 units)
2 UNIT = Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins - TWINS TO WIN (+102)
Listed Pitchers: Bauer vs Gibson
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.04 units)
2 UNIT = New York Mets @ Oakland Athletics - UNDER 7 RUNS (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Gee vs Kazmir
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)


Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays - TIGERS TO WIN (-120)
Listed Pitchers: Scherzer vs. Archer
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
The Tigers have the roster to win a World Series. With three former Cy Young winners and a triple crown winner in Detroit it is going to be World Series or bust for the Tigers. Max Scherzer will need to continue his torrid pace up, a pace that was set last season. He'll be looking for a big pay raise in the offseason given his talents. This year he's been on point with a 2.98 ERA and 14-4 record. The great majority of his best starts have come in the last two months. In fact, in his last ten starts the most runs he's allowed in a single game has been 3, which happened only once. He's had six games in that stretch where he has only allowed 1 run or none at all. His strikeout to walks ratio is something behold, 146:44. His last start he punched out 14 batters while walking only 2 with 3 hits. In his last three outings he had just a 1.17 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. In his last start against the Rays on July 3rd, Scherzer surrendered 1 run and only 2 hits in 8 innings. Chris Archer is no slouch, but putting money against Scherzer is a hard thing to do. Besides, Archer is not on his level. While he certainly is a good pitcher with a 3.24 ERA, the Rays offense hasn't been too helpful this season. He has a 3.43 ERA and 4-3 record at home with a 1.25 ERA. The Rays run hot and cold, while Scherzer is hot hot. Take the Tigers, you won't find Schezer at -120 too often.