8-22-14

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Frank Patron

Must Win 50,000 Unit Preseason
Game of the Year

Under 42.5 Points Giants / Jets

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Bob Balfe

New England patriots -6
NY Jets -1
Detroit Lions -3
GB Packers -7
Chicago Bears +7

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SPORTS ATARI

MLB PLAY OF THE DAY!

Seattle Mariners -1 -142

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GOODFELLA

Friday Night MLB Team Total

SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 4 RUNS (-125) & 4.5 +100/+105 is fine too, if you can’t get the 4.

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Ben Burns' NATIONAL LEAGUE MLB PERSONAL FAVORITE
ATLANTA

Ben Burns' AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB PERSONAL FAVORITE
TORONTO

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Scott Spreitzer’s NFL-X Friday Tapout! 35-13 Run!

Bears

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Dominic Brando's Inner Circle

MLB Diamond Club Friday Inner Circle Side: TORONTO BLUE JAYS (ACTION/STROMAN) -125 over Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 PM ET)
Analysis: We are backing the short price of the home favored Toronto Blue Jays tonight. Tampa Bay enters having dropped 2/3 in a very tight series to Detroit (having scored ONLY ONE RUN in their last 18 innings). Combine the limp Tampa Bay bats with what we target to be a strong showing from Stroman tonight (who enters 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA in 8 HOME STARTS YTD!) and we have a very nice opportunity with the Blue Jays in this spot. The Rays enter having lost 4 of 5 overall, and while Toronto has struggled, their power hitting right handed bats figure to match up perfectly with Rays LHP Smyly in this one (whose teams currently hold only a 6-12 record in his 18 starts YTD). Nice opportunity at an affordable number means we pull the trigger on a value home team in this matchup tonight!

MLB Diamond Club Friday Inner Circle Side: MINNESOTA TWINS (RAY/MILONE) -105 over Detroit Tigers (8:10 PM ET)
Analysis: While the Tigers have historically performed well at Target Field (winning 21 of the past 30 match ups at Minnesota), there is significant strength in our position with the Twins tonight. The public is pounding Detroit to the tune of nearly 70% in this one DESPITE the fact that Detroit enters with Miguel Cabrera not at 100%, having lost 11 of their previous 15 road games AND getting shut out yesterday afternoon. Tough spot to rely on Tigers SP Ray, a young arm in the pressure of a pennant race (on the road), entering at 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA in this last 3 starts (Tigers are 1-4 in his 5 starts). Milone, despite his awful performance in his Twins debut (in a rain soaked MESS which cannot be relied on as a true indicator of what to expect tonight), has historically CONTROLLED the Detroit offense with a career ERA of only 2.15 (plus a career 1.22 WHIP vs Detroit!). Despite not playing well recently, the Twins enter off yesterday’s upset win over the Tribe and Corey Kluber - carry some legit momentum into tonight vs Ray, who has not lasted more than 5 innings in ANY of his last 3 starts. Twins also hold the extra advantage of seeing Ray for a 2nd time around this season, and we expect Minnesota to come out feisty in this one. -105 brings tremendous value to the table, and we will steam into this one feeling pretty confident that the public is backing a false road favorite.

MLB Diamond Club Friday Inner Circle Side: ATLANTA BRAVES (MINOR/ACTION) -105 over Cincinnati Reds (7:10 PM ET)
Analysis: Let’s call it how we see it here. The Cincinnati Reds are not only a pretty bad baseball team these days, but their nightly effort (slash INTEREST) is at an alarming low level. On the contrary, the maddeningly inconsistent Atlanta bats have exploded in recent days to the tune of 43 RUNS over their past 7 games including an 8-0 blowout win in last night’s series opener. Cincinnati stands at 2-11 in their last 13 games including SIX losses in a row (outscored 15-3 in their past two games). Conversely, the Braves must attempt to keep pace with baseball’s hottest team (the Washington Nationals) and have responded by winning 6 of their past 7 entering tonight. Minor is in good recent form (lasting 13 2/3 Innings in his last 2 starts allowing only five total ER vs the Dodgers and A’s). Minor’s last 3 starts vs Cincinnati have yielded 2 wins but more importantly, only 7 ER in 20 innings pitched vs Cincy). While Matt Latos always gives the Reds a fighting chance, it won’t be enough tonight (note his elevated 3.9 home ERA) vs a surging Braves squad who smells blood in the water. We will ride once again with the visitor at a perfect value price knowing deep down, that the home team may have already quit on themselves and their season. Easy call no matter the result, the ATL at -105!

MLB Diamond Club Friday Inner Circle Side: LOS ANGELES DODGERS (ACTION/HAREN) -130 over New York Mets (10:10 PM ET)
Analysis: WE LOVE the Dodgers in this spot tonight, entering with momentum after the huge Josh Turner HR that saved the night B8 last night vs SD. Expect LA to respond tonight as the bright lights of NYC come to visit. The Mets are just 3-6 in their last nine games and typically struggle on the West Coast including 0-4 L4 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are 13-3 against left-handed pitchers and catch Jonathon Niese at an opportune time tonight (entering 2-5 in his last seven starts as a road underdog and just 1-7 on the road against .500 or better teams). The Dodgers have won six of seven games against the Mets and it continues tonight. VALUE at -130, jump on the better team in a perfect spot!

MLB Diamond Club Friday Inner Circle Total: HOUSTON/CLEVELAND (PEACOCK/CARRASCO) OVER 8.5/+105 (7:05 PM ET)
Analysis: Our top MLB Total on the Friday card comes from Cleveland (our model sets this number going over 10). Peacock and Carrasco will yield plenty of opportunities for both teams (combined ERA over 9.5 with a total record of 5-10 on the season). Houston enters off an afternoon road shutout at Yankee Stadium, but their bats will come back alive tonight against a SP that has very little business being on a MLB roster (Astros 32 runs in previous five games before yesterday’s gem by Brandon McCarthy). Similar situation for the Tribe, who enter tonight off a silent afternoon road loss (1 run yesterday) after having scored 12 runs in the previous two games. BATS AWAKEN ON BOTH SIDES TONIGHT as we take advantage of a weak 8.5 number and put our investment on the over!

MLB Diamond Club Friday Inner Circle Side: SAN DIEGO PADRES (DESPAIGNE/COLLIMENTER) +105 over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET)
Analysis: We isolate the Padres as our top underdog on the Friday MLB Card! We catch a very live dog coming into the desert tonight, swinging their best bats of the season (and the best offense in the National League since the ASB! In fact, they are the top hitting team in the NL and they are third in MLB in batting average (.267) during that time. Before getting their hearts broken last night vs Clayton Kershaw, the Pads had 68 hits and 35 runs in their previous 7 games! On the flip side, offense has disappeared for the DBacks, who have hit only .239 since the ASB (scoring ONLY 14 RUNS/45 HITS OVER THEIR LAST 7 GAMES). Paul Goldschmidt is out for the year, and the offense has responded in miserable fashion - we expect that to continue tonight! DBacks SP Josh Collimenter enters tonight with a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 starts. San Diego is 8-3 vs sub .500 teams since the ASB and enters off a very feisty series at Dodger Stadium. We move with complete confidence on San Diego as our top Friday Dog!

CFL Gridiron Club Friday Inner Circle Side: MONTREAL ALOUETTES +8/-120 over Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8:35 PM ET)
Analysis: Do not let the record differential in tonight’s game deceive you. Winnipeg escaped with a 34-33 victory at Montreal early this season, but the Blue Bombers were out gained by 105 yards. Winnipeg is also only 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Our model sets this number in the 3.5-4 range, and we will JUMP on what we judge to be a clear overlay/value spot with a live dog in Montreal. Be sure to play at +8 on the half point buy if necessary. We expect a continued run of success with our CFL plays in week 9. Take the points and expect the Alouettes to be more than ready for this one tonight!

NFLX Gridiron Club Friday Inner Circle Total: CAROLINA/NEW ENGLAND OVER 44/-130 (7:30 PM ET)
Analysis: Our model lays this total near 47.5/48, and in the third dress rehearsal, we expect to see the Patriots move the ball consistently in the first half. Cam Newton is expected to see extended playing time tonight as Carolina focuses on an underperforming offense through the first two games (ranked 24th in yards per play entering tonight). While the Panthers D has yielded only 20 (to a listless Bills squad) and 18 to a depleted Kansas City attack, we expect New England to post in excess of 27+ tonight with Brady leading the way (entering off the Pats 42 point showing last week vs Philadelphia). On the flip side, while the Panthers offense pails in comparison to Chip Kelly’s attack, take note that the New England defense has allowed a 2 game combined total of 57 POINTS entering tonight (23 of which came to a struggling Washington Redskins attack in the NFLX opener). Forced to predict tonight’s range, we look for New England (at home) to come out on top, somewhere in the 28-20 range. We are investing OVER 44 (on the buy), and targeting a first half in the 27/28 range.

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POWERPLAYWINS

Today's Power Plays Of The Day Are

1 Unit Detroit Lions -3 (NFL)
1 Unit Green Bay Packers -7 (NFL)
1 Unit Kansas City Royals -140 (Ventura)
1 Unit Seattle Seahawks -7 (NFL)
1 Unit L.A. Dodgers -130 (Haren)

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Tony the sports betting "Champ"

Today's system bet is:

Cincinnati {B} bet - This is an official MLB system bet that passes all the filters of the system!

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Jeff Clement

10* Washington

7* Atlanta/Cincinnati UNDER 7.5 (+101)

8* Milwaukee -140

7* Chicago Bears +7 (+105)

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SHAKER’S SHORTS

#910 Colorado Rockies Team Total OVER 4 -125

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BONES BEST BET

NATIONALS -1 -103 *4* BEST BET
10 in a row for Washington have to keep riding them while they are red hot. The Nationals are an incredible 14-4 in Fister’s starts this season, and he has allowed 0 ER in each of his past 3 starts (0.89 WHIP). Hudson has struggled for the Giants of late and owns a 6 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

RED SOX TT UNDER 3 -125 *2*
Just once since June 13th have the Mariners allowed more than 4 runs when King Felix takes the hill. The Red Sox offense has been non-existant of late scoring just 1.8 runs per game over their past 5 – not a good stat heading up against King Felix.

ANGELS ML +147 *2*
We’ve been riding these guys for awhile now and they continue to cash in. The Athletics Sonny Gray has had 3 consecutive starts not up to his standards as he is 0-3 over this stretch with a 6.48 ERA and owns an extremely high 1.92 WHIP. Angels starter, Hector Santiago has 2 starts against these A’s this season where he has pitched a total of 13 innings allowing just 1 run.

BREWERS ML -143 *3*
The Pirates are 11 games below .500 on the road and have lost 7 of 8 overall. The Brewers have been playing great baseball winning 5 of their last 6. Gallardo has given up 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. Locke has given up 4 runs or more in 3 of his last 5 starts. He has also struggled on the road with a 1.42 WHIP. The Brewers have also won 7 of the last 9 meetings this year.

ORIOLES ML -104 *4* [2:20 pm et]
Huh? Plus money on the Orioles today against a inferior Cubs team? Looks like a trap game here but we are ready to fall into it. Orioles have won four straight games and are 21 games above a .500 record. The Orioles offense has really been killing it, producing four or more runs in eight of their last 11 games. Kevin Gausman gets the nod, and he’s 7-4 with a 3.70 ERA. The opposite is holding true for the Cubs as they have produced three or less runs in 12 of their last 14 games. The Orioles are 5-1 in Gausman’s last 6 road starts and 4-1 in Gausman’s last 5 starts overall. Arrieta is nice for the Cubs here this afternoon but we don’t think it matters here, take the much better team at a great price.

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KLProdigyPicks

MLB

WASHINGTON NATIONALS ML
TAMPA BAY RAYS ML
SAN DIEGO PADRES ML
ATLANTA BRAVES ML

NFL Preseason

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6

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Friday’s Week 3 NFL preseason primer

With the NFL preseason officially past the halfway mark, many teams will be giving their first-team offenses one final practice run before using the final game to evaluate existing positional battles. Here’s a look at Friday’s slate of games:

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 44.5)

* Expect to see Panthers quarterback Cam Newton look for Kelvin Benjamin plenty against the Patriots, after the rookie wide receiver had two catches for 41 yards last week against Kansas City and nearly hauled in a long pass for a touchdown. Head coach Ron Rivera is reportedly expected to play the starters less than he did against the Chiefs.

* Patriots head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t share Rivera’s view on playing time heading into the third game of the preseaon; he’s expected to give Tom Brady and the rest of the starters at least one half of action, and likely more. Keep an eye on running back Steven Ridley, who fumbled last week and is on a short leash due to problems hanging on to the ball last season.

New York Giants at New York Jets (EVEN, 42.5)

* The Giants are a mess at left tackle going into the game, with starter Will Beatty expected to see just 20 snaps in his recovery from a broken leg and backups Charles Brown and James Brewer both expected to miss the game. It’s just the latest in a series of concerns for the Giants’ fledgling first-team offense, which has looked dreadful through the first three exhibition games.

* Word out of New York is that the quarterback competition between incumbent Geno Smith and newcomer Michael Vick remains close, meaning either player could make a convincing case for the starting job with a strong showing Friday. The Jets own a 24-20-1 advantage in the all-time preseason series between the teams, including a 24-21 overtime triumph a year ago.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-3, 44.5)

* The quarterback situation in Jacksonville remains up in the air, though rookie Blake Bortles has only had to face opponents’ second- and third-team defenses and will likely see more of the same in Detroit. The center position remains a major concern for the team, with Mike Brewster struggling and no one on the roster stepping up amid his stumbles.

* Superstar wide receiver Calvin Johnson will finally make his preseason debut for the Lions after completing his recovery from offseason knee and finger surgeries. Detroit will also welcome back defensive end Ziggy Ansah, whose return from a shoulder injury should bolster a defensive line that has managed just one sack through the first two games.

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-7, 43.5)

* Friday’s game marks the return to Green Bay of big-play receiver James Jones, who joined the Raiders in the offseason following seven seasons with the Packers. Offensive coordinator Greg Olson anticipates Matt Schaub and the rest of the first-team offense getting extensive work in Green Bay, playing at least the entire first half and likely a good portion of the third quarter.

* Green Bay’s first-team offense has been sensational through the first two preseason games, gaining 230 yards and 12 first downs while scoring 17 points in just 32 plays. Aaron Rodgers and Co. should feast on Oakland’s suspect first-team defense, which has allowed opposing quarterbacks to go 14-for-16 for 150 yards and two touchdowns in the first two games.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 45)

* The Bears are expected to show off new wide receiver Santonio Holmes, who signed with the team last weekend; it isn’t clear whether he’ll line up with the first-team offense or get his reps in the second half. Chris Williams will return to kick return duties after missing last week’s game against Jacksonville; a good showing Friday could land him the starting role for Week 1.

* The Seahawks are hoping to get a more extensive look at wide receiver Percy Harvin, who played just one snap in the first preseason game but had four catches on five targets for 31 yards against San Diego last week. – Safety Kam Chancellor is still recovering from offseason hip surgery, but is said to be close to 100 percent and may see action Friday.

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Arthur Ralph's
Super Pick Brewers w/ Gallardo -145
Trophy Plays NFL NE Pats -5, Oak Raiders + 7