8-23-14

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Strike Point Sports

MLB
4* Seattle -110

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Teddy Covers

Seattle Mariners

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Will Rogers

NFLX Underdog Shocker

Vikings

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Jimmy Boyd

San Francisco Giants

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Larry Ness

NFLX Goin Over the Total

Colts / Saints

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Hollywood Sports

25* Preseason Dog Of The Year

Houston Texans

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LT LOCK


Redskins +2.5
Titans +3.5


Red Sox -111
Rangers +105
Phillies +100

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Arthur Ralph
Super Pick Dodgers w/ Greinke
Trophy Plays NFL Titans + 4, Vikings + 3

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Sportswagers

Miami @ COLORADO
Miami -103 over COLORADO

The Marlins have won four of five and spanked the Rockies last night, 13-5 in the opener. Miami has also scored 31 times in the past four games, they’re just four games out in the Wildcard race and they’ll take that momentum into this one against Jordan Lyles. Lyles has put up some decent numbers but he rarely lasts more than 5 innings and he certainly lacks plus offerings. Over his last four starts, Lyles posted a 5.21 ERA while allowing at least one jack in every game. Jordan Lyles is an average pitcher throwing for a depleted team.

Tom Koehler is a pitcher we like. His numbers are average (3.82 ERA – 1.26 WHIP) but he’s been getting progressively better almost every month since he’s been in the bigs. Koehler’s fastball velocity has increased every month this season. In his last outing, he struck out seven batters in six frames. He has a BAA of just .239 this season but an unlucky 70% strand rate has hurt his bottom line. Over his past 11 starts, Koehler has been taken yard just three times. Koehler’s strikeout rate, control and groundball percentage are all trending the right way. The Marlins have won four of Koehler’s last six starts, they’re swinging some hot bats and they’re a cheap price to extend that run here.

Our Pick
Miami -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)


Chicago @ N.Y. YANKEEES
Chicago +197 over N.Y. YANKEEES

1:05 PM EST. Rounding out the back-end of Chicago’s rotation is 29-year-old Scott Carroll, who has pitched nearly 100 innings for the South Side so far. With a decent body of work to review, are there any sneaky skills worth speculating on here? Carroll needs pinpoint control to offset his pitiful strikeout rate but he's below-average at locating his pitches. He's managed to scrape by, in large part by inducing a high number of groundballs, but his low K rate makes him more susceptible to luck-factors, and he's been hurt by a low strand percentage. With a 31%/23% dominant start/disaster start split, every Carroll outing is sure to be a roller-coaster. That said, the Yankees cannot be in this price range. They can make average pitchers look great and bad ones look good. Carroll’s 55% groundball rate really sticks out and could be a factor. To be fair, Carroll has been a bit sharper lately, producing a few gems over the past month and a half. The possibility of Carroll getting whacked is always present when he starts but there is too much value here to pass up on. It’s also worth noting that the White Sox possess a dangerous offense, which adds to their appeal.

25 starts and 154 innings for 39-year old Hiroki Kuroda may be starting to take a toll. Throw in the 421 innings he’s thrown over the previous two seasons and you begin to get the picture of a pitcher that is running low on gas. Kuroda has surrendered three runs or more in four of his last five starts. In his last start he only struck out one batter in 6.2 innings. Over his last five starts, Kuroda has a 4.35 ERA, which is right in line with his 4.44 ERA over that same span. Perhaps it's too early to suggest a significant playing time adjustment, but Kuroda does appear to need a breather. Two starts ago start (August 10) he was pulled after 4.2 innings, four walks and 97 pitches for his second disaster start in his previous four starts. Indeed the Yanks may pull this one out but in no way do they deserve this billing, as they have proven over the past six weeks that they can lose at any time to any pitcher. Big overlay.
Our Pick
Chicago +197 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.94)


Houston @ CLEVELAND
Houston +137 over CLEVELAND

Collin McHugh has come out of nowhere to produce one of the most incredible rags to riches story in a long time. Formerly Colorado's waiver fodder and N.Y Mets farm-hand, Houston picked up McHugh -- owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level -- in December, and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he's pitched like an ace since then. In 114 innings, McHugh has a BB/K split of 39/124. In nine road starts, McHugh has allowed 42 hits in 54 innings for a BAA of .215. McHugh has been just as good against righties (.194 oppBA) as he has against lefties (.213 oppBA) and the scary part is that’s he’s getting better. Over his last five starts, McHugh has a 2.27 ERA (2.98 xERA), he’s struck out 31 batters and has walked just six in 32 frames. In his last start, McHugh’s groundball rate was 59%. McHugh is undoubtedly one of the most undervalued starters in the game. Furthermore, the Astros are playing great ball with 12 wins over their past 20 games and they’re currently 5-3 on this 10-game trip. This team is having fun and they’re dangerous.

Danny Salazar has blazing, malevolent stuff. He averages (that's averages) 96 mph on a fastball with sinister movement and he mixes in a nasty splitter. This dude can throw but we’re not so sure he can pitch. In 13 starts, he has just four of the pure quality variety. Salazar also pitches up in the zone so he’s prone to the long ball and has already been tagged for 10 jacks in 67 innings. Another problem is that he averages more pitches per AB than any pitcher in the game, meaning his pitch count is usually high and as a result, he rarely lasts deep into games. Salazar has lasted five innings or less in four of his past six starts and in eight of his 12 starts this season. That leaves the rest to the Indians bullpen. With an awful groundball/fly-ball split of 27%/50% and the inability to last deep into games, Salazar is too big risk at this price.

Our Pick
Houston +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)


MLB Historical - Total

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Rochester Titans

All "5*" Plays

UFC: (yuta sasaki -130) (Zhang Lipeng +135) (alex garcia -140)
NFL: (falcons ml) (bills ml) (dallas+4.5) (houston +7) (colts over 47)
MLB: (jays ml) (rockies ML) Nats under 7.5)

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UNDER Umpire Streakers


#969 UN 9 +100 DET/MIN 1.00u to win 1.00u
TGibson 10ov/16un L26gms 61.5%


#953 UN 8 +100 STL/PHI 1.00u to win 1.00u
Onora 5ov/17un L22gms 77.3%


#977 UN 9 -105 KC/TX 1.05u to win 1.00u
Wendelstedt 7ov/12un L19gms 63.2%

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Diamond Dog Sports

#967: White Sox: +170 (3*)
Listed Pitchers: Carroll/Kuroda

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EXECUTIVE

PRE-SEASON

200 dolphins

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Doc

NFL Pre-season GOY is on the Dallas Cowboys

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GOODFELLA

Saturday Night NFLX Free Team Total

WASHINGTON REDSKINS – OVER 21 POINTS (-115 @BOL)