8-24-14

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CFL

WEEK 9

Calgary (6-1) @ Ottawa (1-6)-- Stampeders (-13) led 28-7 at half two weeks ago in a 38-17 home win over Ottawa; Stamps held RedBlacks to 39 rushing yards- they're 3-0 as road favorites, with wins on foreign soil by 19-4-10 points (+5 turnover ratio on road). Ottawa lost its last four games but covered two of three as home underdog, upsetting Toronto, losing by 24-2 points- they lost to Eskimos 10-8 last week, after leading at half for 4th time in seven games- they've averaged 13 ppg in last thee games, after averaging 19.8 ppg in first four. Three of last four games for both sides went over total.

Saskatchewan (5-2) @ BCLions (5-3)-- Lions (+5) upset defending champs 26-13 in Regina back in Week 3, avenging loss from LY's playoffs. Riders' 31-17 (+3) win here LY snapped four-game skid in this building. BC had 186 rushing yards first meeting; Saskatchewan hasn't allowed 100+ on ground since- they're 4-0 since that loss, wnning last two weeks by 6-5 points. Lions won last three games, five of six since 0-2 start; they're 2-2 SU at home, but covered three of last four when favoried. 19 of last 24 series games stayed under total, as have six of eight Lion games, four of last five Roughrider games.

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CFL Betting Recap - Week 8
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 5-0 straight up in Week 8
-- Favorites went 3-2 ATS in Week 8
-- Road teams posted a 3-2 SU record in Week 8
-- Road teams posted a 3-2 ATS record in Week 8
-- The 'under' went 3-2 in Week 8

Team Betting Notes

-- Toronto (3-5) has won two of the past three games, and they're also 2-1 ATS over the span. The Argonauts have opened up a solid game-and-a-half lead in the East Division. The Argos had a rare two-game week, losing to the BC Lions (5-3) in the second game Sunday, 33-17.

-- The Lions have won three straight games for the first time this season, and they have gone 3-0 ATS during the impressive span. The game went 'under' snapping a two-game 'over' streak. The under is now 6-2 for the Lions this season.

-- Montreal (1-6) slipped up for the fifth consecutive game Saturday againts Saskatchewan (5-2), but they covered the nearly two-touchdown spread in the 16-11 loss against the defending champs.

-- The win for the Roughriders was their fourth straight, but they failed to cover for the first time since July 12. The 'under' has also cashed in four of their past five outings.

-- Calgary (6-1) covered on the road at Hamilton (1-6), maintaining a tie for first place with Edmonton (6-1). The Stamps have covered three of the past four, and seven of their seven this season. The 'under' is also 5-2 for Calgary, as the under hit against the TiCats after two straight overs.

-- The Esks struggled against expansion Ottawa (1-6), winning just 10-8. Edmonton has alternated covers and non-covers in each of the past four games. The constant with the Esks is the 'under' cashing in six of their seven outings.

-- After being in first place two weeks ago, Winnipeg (5-3) has fallen on hard time and dropped back-to-back games. After starting out 3-0 ATS, the Blue Bombers are 2-3 ATS over the past five.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting News and Notes Week 8
By Ian Cameron

Here are my CFL Week 8 News & Notes as I take a look at each team from a betting perspective.

Toronto Argonauts (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS)

Toronto had a busy Week 8 by playing two games in the span five days. They took advantage of their bye week by trouncing Winnipeg, 38-21, but the tables turned when BC took advantage of eight days off and really wore down the Argos late en route to a 33-17 win. Quarterback Ricky Ray and his new look receiving corps -- due to multiple injuries -- fired on all cylinders against Winnipeg as Ray tossed four touchdowns. But it was a different story against BC’s stout defense with the Argos scoring just a lone touchdown while also coughing up a few turnovers. Toronto can’t be held to too much blame for the BC loss as the schedule really conspired against them but it doesn’t get easier with a daunting road trip to Edmonton (6-1) on deck.

Montreal Alouettes (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS)

The change to quarterback Alex Brink didn’t result in a win as the Alouettes notched only 11 points in the loss to Saskatchewan but I did spot some positives with Brink under center. He managed to run out of the pocket for a few first downs and was able to move the football effectively between the 20’s. Unfortunately the red zone acted as a mouse trap for the Alouettes throughout the game where drives stalled and/or they turned the football over. A Brandon Whitaker fumble inside the 10-yard line set the tone early and they never recovered. The defense bounced back with their best performance in weeks but it was still not quite good enough. Montreal will be on the road for a second straight week against a rested Winnipeg team that has been off since last Tuesday. It will be interesting to see if an extra week of work can put Brink in a better position to succeed. Note that Winnipeg’s defense gave up an uncharacteristically high 38 points against Toronto last time out.

Ottawa RedBlacks (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS)

I give Ottawa credit as they competed toe-to-toe with one of the league’s best teams but ultimately couldn’t come up with its second win of the season. Edmonton prevailed 10-8 in a game dominated by defense and missed opportunities on offense. The box score will show that Ottawa quarterback Henry Burris didn’t have a good game with only 18 completions and 8 points but the number of dropped passes by Ottawa’s receivers was staggering. The defense had one of its best games of the season albeit against an Edmonton team that had some key injuries on offense. Ottawa earned a wire-to-wire pointspread cover as touchdowns underdogs at home despite the 10-8 loss. They’re catching +9 this week vs. the 6-1 Calgary Stampeders. The spot is certainly in Ottawa’s favor with a second straight home tilt while Calgary plays its second of back-to-back road games in the Eastern Time Zone. But there is a massive talent gap between the two teams as evidenced when Calgary demolished Ottawa 38-17 at McMahon Stadium two weeks ago.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS)

Hamilton had yet another chance to win a close game at home against Calgary but a devastating fourth quarter injury to quarterback Dan LeFevour completely changed the complexion of the game. He left and didn’t return and now there is speculation his season may be done with a suspected torn ACL. With Hamilton trailing 23-20 with three minutes left, backup Jeremiah Masoli threw a horrific INT and Calgary later punched in a game clinching touchdown with mere seconds left. That crushed Hamilton bettors (including myself) holding +3, +3.5 or +4 as Calgary went on time win, 30-20. I’m not convinced Masoli is the answer which is a concern moving forward. Hamilton is now 1-6 despite a handful of tough losses by a touchdown or less and enter their bye week needing an answer under center. Zach Collaros is still an unknown as to when he will return and with LeFevour’s season possibly being done it’s either Masoli or their pair of practice roster quarterbacks, Stephen McGee or Jacory Harris. Hamilton’s is likely looking at the trade market with quality and experienced backups like Drew Tate (Calgary) and Kevin Glenn (BC) as potential candidates.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)

In my mind there was no doubt Winnipeg was due for regression following a 5-1 start. They have since lost back-to-back games against Saskatchewan and Toronto but certainly have a favorable chance to get back in the winning column against the reeling Montreal Alouettes on Friday. The Blue Bombers defense had its worst game of the season last week allowing 38 points and four touchdown passes to Ricky Ray and the Argos. Winnipeg has a couple of key defensive injuries to contend with but get a much needed boost offensively with the expected return of receiver Nick Moore. Montreal was competitive last week despite the 16-11 loss in Saskatchewan covering the number as double digit road dogs.

Edmonton Eskimos (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS)
Edmonton was far from sharp in its ugly win over Ottawa but a win is a win and good teams typically find ways to when their A-game isn’t present. The offense was bogged down as quarterback Mike Reilly had by far his worst game of the season and the absences of running back John White and wideout Fred Stamps certainly hindered a lot of their explosiveness. However, the contestant with his team has been their dominating defense which held true to form again as they smothered Ottawa’s offense for the entire 60 minutes. It’s becoming quite clear that if you have a mediocre offense, you are going to have a difficult time scoring in bunches against Edmonton. Edmonton returns home to face the best of the bad lot East Division when they take on Toronto.

Calgary Stampeders (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)

The difference between the Stampeders now compared to earlier in the season is the improvement of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. Earlier this season, they were winning games in spite of Mitchell but now he is making an impact. His poise in the pocket continues to improve and he has done a very good job keeping Calgary’s offense productive despite cluster injuries at the skill positions. The defense remains strong allowing less than 20 points per game so to see the offense play at a higher level makes this team a very tough one to beat right now. Calgary might finally welcome back running back Jon Cornish this week vs. Ottawa.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)

The Saskatchewan Roughriders were lethargic for the majority of their lackluster 16-11 win vs. Montreal after big wins over Toronto, Ottawa and Winnipeg. It was a classic letdown as they didn’t sniff a pointspread cover as nearly two touchdown favorites. The defense was solid but the offense never got in any sort of rhythm. Quarterback Darian Durant relies on a solid ground game to help complement the passing attack but the Riders’ top two receivers, Chris Getzlaf and Taj Smith, were blanketed for much of the game. The fact that the Roughriders still won shows how superior the West remains over the East. Saskatchewan will clash with BC (5-3) in a pivotal game within the ultra-competitive West Division.

BC Lions (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)

One of the favorites to win the Grey Cup before the season started is finally getting their act together. BC notched a third straight win against Toronto on Sunday, 33-17. The Lions defense was tremendous but the offense was mediocre partially because of an odd decision by head coach Mike Benevides to pull Kevin Glenn for two offensive possessions in the second quarter. Travis Lulay, who stepped in for Glenn, was expected to be the starter prior to the season but needed more time to recover from offseason surgery. Now that he is healthy, he has already been given snaps in an actual game. Glenn came back in the game in the third quarter but was never the same and most of BC’s points came via defense and special teams. I would be surprised if Glenn doesn’t start this week but I wonder if the “musical chairs” will hurt the team’s chemistry and rhythm moving forward.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 9
By David Schwab

The West Division continued its dominance over the East this past week in the CFL with a 4-1 straight-up record in a rare five-game inter-division schedule. Toronto had to pull double duty coming off a Week 7 bye starting with last Tuesday’s 38-21 rout of Winnipeg as a three-point home favorite. The total in that game went OVER the 51-point closing line.

Last Friday’s lone game saw Edmonton claw its way to a 10-8 victory over Ottawa as a six-point road favorite. The total came nowhere close to the 49-point line. This past Saturday, Calgary continued to impress with a 30-20 win against Hamilton as a 2½-point road favorite with the total staying UNDER the 53-point closing line. Later in the day, Saskatchewan ran its SU winning streak to four games with a 16-11 victory over Montreal as a hefty 13-point home favorite. That total stayed UNDER as well against a closing betting line of 49½ points.

Toronto was back at it on Sunday as a three-point home underdog and it came up well short against British Columbia in a 33-17 loss that stayed UNDER the 53-point closing line.

Sunday, Aug. 24

Calgary (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) at Ottawa (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS)

Point-spread: Calgary -8
Total: 49

Game Overview

The Stampeders have been stomping their way through the league by outscoring their opponents by a combined 77 points in their first seven games. They are averaging 27.3 PPG behind a bruising running game and their defense has been the stingiest in the league by allowing just 16.3 PPG. Jock Sanders has been a force on special teams with 617 return yards on the year.

Things have gone pretty much as expected for the expansion RedBlacks with a 1-6 SU start, but they have looked especially bad against the teams from the West. Just two weeks ago they were more than doubled-up in a 38-17 loss to Calgary after getting torched by Stamps’ quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell for 289 passing yards and three scoring strikes.

Betting Trends

Calgary easily covered the 14-point spread at home in that first meeting and the total went OVER the 49-point number. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the Stampeders first seven games this season and it has gone OVER in three of Ottawa’s last four games.

Saskatchewan (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) at British Columbia (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Point-spread: BC -3½
Total: 52

Game Overview

Do not look now, but the defending Grey Cup Champs are building-up a head of steam heading into this critical matchup in the West Division title race. The Roughriders have won their last four games by a combined score of 114-51 and they have not allowed more than 17 points in any of the four contests.

BC has won its last three games including an impressive 25-24 victory over Calgary as a four-point underdog on the road to start this run. Quarterback Travis Lulay is close to 100 percent after missing the first six games with a shoulder injury, but so far Kevin Glenn has been able to hold onto the starting job. He teamed up with Emmanuel Arceneaux for a 53-yard scoring strike this past Sunday to seal the win over Toronto.

Betting Trends

The Lions beat Saskatchewan 26-13 on the road in mid-July as five-point underdogs to improve to 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings in BC and overall it has stayed UNDER in 11 of the last 12 games between the two division rivals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Week 9 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett

The Calgary Stampeders lead the CFL betting ranks at 5-2 ATS through the first eight weeks of the season as they head into a game against the Ottawa RedBlacks - who have just two ATS victories in seven games so far in their expansion campaign.

Sun Aug 24 - Calgary at Ottawa

Last 10 Meetings: Ottawa 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS | OU 1-0

The Calgary Stampeders already have one SU and ATS victory against the Ottawa RedBlacks this season as those teams battle in Week 9 CFL betting action on Sunday afternoon. The Stampeders won and covered a big spread in their first meeting of the season against the RedBlacks back on August 9, with Calgary grabbing a 38-17 victory and covering the big 14-point spread at home. That game was an OVER play for totals bettors.

Sun Aug 24 - Saskatchewan at B.C

Last 10 Meetings: B.C. 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS | OU 1-9

The UNDER continues to be the play for totals bettors in games between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the B.C. Lions as those teams close out the CFL Week 9 betting slate on Sunday night. The Lions topped the Roughriders 26-13 as a 5-point road underdog on the CFL odds in the first meeting of the season between the two teams on July 12. That was the ninth UNDER result in the past 10 games between the teams.

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StatFox Super Situations

CFL | CALGARY at OTTAWA
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (OTTAWA) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, when playing on a Sunday
26-4 since 1997. ( 86.7% | 21.6 units )

CFL | SASKATCHEWAN at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (SASKATCHEWAN) versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite
35-10 since 1997. ( 77.8% | 24.0 units )

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StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle Sunday

New Hands-Off NFL Makes For Tough Totals Betting In Week #1
Led by a Denver Broncos team that posted an NFL-record 606 total points, the 2013 season featured more scoring in professional football than any that had come before it. No-huddle, up-tempo attacks featuring a pass-first mentality coupled with the abandonment of the “workhorse running back” have played an integral role in the rise of scoring averages over the last 10 years. The 256 regular season games played during the 2004 campaign resulted in an average of 42.96 points per contest. In 2013, that number skyrocketed to 46.81 points per game, good for an increase of 8.96 percent.

For their part, Bookmakers have been quick to stay on top of the situation. Despite a 2.85 percent increase in scoring from 2012 to 2013, over bets went just 130-122-4 last year. When you factor in the juice, there’s no profit to be made by simply backing the Over or the Under during the course of a five-month season. But what if we shrink our target size down from five months to just the first week of the regular season?

Week #1 of the 2004 season featured an average Over/Under of 42.12 with a scoring average of 38.81 points, which resulted in Under bets going 9-7. Contrast that with the 2013 campaign, where the average total for Week #1 was 45.3 and the scoring average was 46.4, which resulted in Over bets going 9-7. That’s an increase of just 7.54 percent in the Week #1 totals market, but a staggering leap of 19.55 percent in scoring. Viewing the results of Week #1 over the last 10 years in the aggregate, Overs have gone just 72-86-2 (.455). But the per-year increase in average totals for Week #1 has failed to pace the increase Week #1 scoring.

Over the last five years, Overs have gone 42-36-2 (.538) during the first week of the NFL regular season. That number skyrockets again when you look solely at the last three seasons, where Week #1 Overs have produced a record of 29-18-1 (.617). If you had blindly laid $110 to win $100 on every Over played during Week#1 from 2011-2013, you would currently be up $920 entering the 2014 season. This data certainly doesn’t guarantee Week #1 success for the upcoming season, as Bookmakers have once again bumped the average of their Week #1 totals, this time from 45.3 in 2013 to 45.8 this year. But the big question is whether or not that will be enough, especially when you consider the fact that NFL referees are expected to throw more flags for illegal contact thanks to a push from the league office.

“As the league changes the rules and the quarterbacks and receivers continue to be more protected, you are going to see an increase in scoring and linemakers will have to adjust,” Johnny Avello, Executive Director of Race & Sports at the Wynn & Encore in Las Vegas tells us here at StatSystems Sports. There’s absolutely no doubt that Bookmakers both local and abroad have been paying very close attention to the recent adjustments made to illegal contact penalties. But does that mean there’s no value to be had when it comes to betting Week #1 Overs?

Maybe, maybe not. That doesn’t change the fact that at least one subset of Week #1 totals has been extremely profitable to backers in recent years. From 2004-2013, totals lined at 39.5 or fewer points in Week #1 have gone 22-30-1 (.423) to the Over. But as scoring has outpaced the increase in Week #1 totals over the last five years, that record improves slightly to 11-12-1 (.478) to the over. Break this subset down further to the last three years and you get a record of 7-2 (.777), which makes playing the over in the Oakland-New York Jets (39.5) and Carolina-Tampa Bay (39.5) games an enticing proposition.
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2014 NFL Player Props
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner

In the never-ending pursuit of prop bets that people will spend money on, sportsbooks are getting more and more creative every year. It used to be that a side and a total was all that was needed for books to draw more business, but the Internet has changed all of that. Each year books come up with new ways to tempt us — or really not tempt the smart ones amongst us in a lot of cases. One of the interesting things to look at this year at bovada Sports are the special NFL player props on offer. They are essentially parlays of two or three individual or team accomplishments. They certainly aren’t packed with value, but at least they are interesting to consider:

•Will Peyton Manning lead the league in passing yards, win the MVP award, and lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl win?

The only side you can bet here is the “yes,” and it will pay off at +2500 if he pulls off this impressive trifecta. Manning has won the MVP five times, led the league in passing yards three times (a surprisingly low number), and won a Super Bowl, so we know he is individually capable of each thing. He has twice had a double — winning the MVP while leading the league in passing in both 2003 and last year. He also fell just a game short of the trifecta last year — though he really, really, really fell short with that horror show of a Super Bowl performance. So, can he put it all together and win all three this year?

Well, he’s favored in all three categories. He’s 7/2 to win the MVP, the 11/4 co-favorite with Drew Brees to win the passing title, and the Broncos are 13/2 to win the Super Bowl. The first thing that stands out when you look at these prices is what a horrible price bovada is offering on the prop. The true parlay price would be just over 125/1 based on the odds for each bet, so they are paying about a fifth of what risk is involved — if you assumed that each of the three odds involved were fair. In short, then, the book would be thrilled for you to make this bet at any time regardless of how it ultimately turns out. So often this is the case with parlays, so it’s key to do the math yourself to be sure of what you are really looking at.

If we put aside the dismal math for a second, we can look at each category in turn. In each category the biggest risk is the same — Manning isn’t young, he isn’t mobile, and he is fragile in both the knees and the neck — at least. If he were to get hurt and miss any real time then he likely wouldn’t win MVP or the passing title, and with Brock Osweiler as the backup the Broncos likely wouldn’t win the Super Bowl, either. To consider betting on Manning here means you are betting on his health. That makes me uneasy. That aside, he has the talent around him to shine, his defense should be better this year so he should get more opportunities, and voters absolutely love him, so he will come out on top in a close race.

"There also isn’t anyone better positioned than him to win the passing title -- though Brees is competitive, and I have a soft spot for Matthew Stafford this year. I can’t convincingly argue against any one of these categories, but I am very confident that he won’t win all three."

•Will Calvin Johnson lead the league in receiving yards and the Lions win the NFC North?

Johnson has been the receiving leader twice in the last three years, and he would have won it again last year if he hadn’t missed two games. He is a freak at the top of his game, and the Lions should be much-improved offensively this year. He’s the heavy 13/5 favorite to come out on top, and he’s close to a bargain at that price. The question, then, is whether the Lions can win the NFC North. They are the third choice to do so at +400, behind the Bears at +275 and the Packers at -125. I think there is a lot of value in the Lions at that price. It’s a brutally-tough division, but the gap between Detroit and the other two isn’t as big as the odds suggest, and I don’t see Green Bay as nearly as dominant as the price suggests.

"The yes side here pays +1500. That’s actually only slightly less than it should pay off. I probably wouldn’t tie my money up in this for a whole season, but it is infinitely more attractive than the previous option."

•Will Johnny Manziel win the rookie of the year and the Browns make the playoffs?

Simple answer — no. Manziel isn’t even going to be the starter to begin the season, and he has very little to work with, so it is very hard to imagine him getting it together enough to win the award in what should be a pretty loaded field. Then there is the matter of whether the Browns will make the playoffs. They won’t. Not even close. The prop only pays +2000. Manziel is the 11/2 favorite to win the OROY — proof of just how lacking in objectivity the public is when it comes to their new crush. The odds are at +400 that the Browns will make the playoffs.

“The prop pays almost half of what it should, and that’s ignoring the fact that both of the odds involved are way lower than they should be. I can’t think of many bets I would be less interesting in making than this one."
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"Remember, don't make a move without it, You'll be glad you did" Stan!
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#279 SAN DIEGO @ #280 SAN FRANCISCO
Line: 49ers -6, Total: 42

The San Francisco 49ers hope to turn around what has been a rough preseason so far when they welcome Golden State rival San Diego to Levi's Stadium. Last week, the 49ers opened their new home by laying an egg against the reigning AFC champion Denver Broncos, falling 34-0. In his first work of the preseason, running back Frank Gore rushed for 12 yards on two carries while McLeod Bethel-Thompson was the team's leading passer, completing 6-of-8 attempts for 79 yards, including a 48-yard pass to tight end Kevin Greene.

Bruce Ellington led San Francisco in receptions for the second consecutive week, recording four catches for 24 yards. The defense was highlighted by a goal-line stand in the fourth quarter when linebacker Chase Thomas stopped Broncos back Kapri Bibbs for a one-yard loss on 4th-and-goal. "It's the preseason, but it all means something," said 49ers star left tackle Joe Staley. "Scoring points is the name of the game and we haven't done it. It will be a real test this week to see how we rebound from this."

The woes continued this week when the Niners were forced to move practice out of Levi's Stadium due to poor turf conditions on Wednesday. The organization then decided to replace the playing surface altogether ahead of Sunday's game. "We have determined the appropriate measures necessary to have the field ready for Sunday and look forward to hosting the San Diego Chargers," the team said in a statement.

The Chargers are also coming off a tough week, losing to the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, 41-14, in the Pacific Northwest. San Diego QB Philip Rivers, who played only one series, was 2-of-4 for 20 yards, while his backup Kellen Clemens finished 14-of-21 for 149 yards and two scores. Keenan Allen hauled in a 13-yard TD pass in defeat. Chargers tight end Antonio Gates saw his first action of the 2014 preseason against the Seahawks and expects to see more snaps this Sunday at San Francisco.

"It always feels good to get out there," said Gates. "It's all about timing in this game and getting the speed down." The 49ers and Chargers have met 42 times in the preseason, including every year since 1987, with the 49ers leading the all-time series 22-20. San Francisco has won each of the last four preseason games against San Diego. The two teams will also meet at Levi's Stadium in Week #16 of the regular season.

•KEY STAT: SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse since 1993.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 6.6, OPPONENT 9.4.

StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 19 times, while the favorite covered the spread 12 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 13 times. 7 games went under the total, while 1 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 32 times, while the underdog covered first half line 30 times. *No EDGE. 11 games went under first half total, while 7 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line (SAN DIEGO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.
(37-12 since 1993.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.6, Opponent 6.6 (Average first half point differential = +6)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (20-3).
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#281 CINCINNATI @ #282 ARIZONA
Line: Cardinals -2.5, Total: 43

Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals will host the reigning AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals in a primetime matchup (8:00 PM EST) on "Sunday Night Football." As a rookie head coach back in 2003 Bengals coach Marvin Lewis made Palmer the first overall selection in the 2003 draft and the Southern Cal product went on to make two Pro Bowls in the Queen City before moving on after the 2010 season. These days Palmer is at the controls of the Cardinals, who are coming off a last- second loss to the Vikings in Minneapolis last week.

Arizona was leading 28-24 with 1:07 left when Minnesota rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense got the ball back on their own 17-yard line. Bridgewater found Rodney Smith for short gains of 10 and six yards and following a 12-yard completion to Jarius Wright, went back to Smith for 37 yards down the left sideline to the Arizona 18. Four plays later, Bridgewater hooked up with Smith for a 2-yard, go-ahead score.

Drew Stanton had a touchdown pass for Arizona and Jonathan Dwyer, Robert Hughes and Zach Bauman had scores on the ground. Palmer drove the Cardinals 93 yards on the team's opening drive, capped by Dwyer's one-yard plunge. "It was good to come out fast," said Palmer about Arizona's first possession. "Good execution, good efficiency. That's what you want out of these games." Bauman's 6-yard score with 1:11 remaining put Arizona back ahead prior to Bridgewater's heroics.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are still searching for that first preseason win although the first-team offense was brilliant in a 25-17 setback to the New York Jets last week. Andy Dalton was crisp under center for the Bengals, going 8-of-8 for 144 yards and a score while guiding the team to a pair of touchdowns and a field goal during his three drives. "He continues to play the way we think Andy should play all the time," said Lewis. "It doesn't surprise me. It's the way he practices every day. He doesn't need to be flashy. He just needs to be accurate and handle the offense. He does that very well."

This contest will be the first preseason matchup for these two teams since 1996 and will mark the Bengals first-ever trip to University of Phoenix Stadium.

•KEY STATS: CINCINNATI is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 9.5, OPPONENT 13.4.

--CINCINNATI is 35-11 OVER (+22.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 11.5, OPPONENT 11.8.

StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 14 times, while the underdog covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 15 times, while the underdog won straight up 7 times. 4 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 24 times, while the underdog covered first half line 21 times. *No EDGE. 8 games went over first half total, while 1 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (ARIZONA) - in non-conference games, after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.
(64-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.4%, +39.8 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.3, Opponent 11.8 (Total first half points scored = 24.1)

The situation's record this season is: (3-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (38-12).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (117-59).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (230-139).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

49ers -6
Bengals +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Astros producing W's behind this pitcher
Stephen Campbell

The Houston Astros have been on fire behind starting pitcher Brett Oberholtzer, winning six out of his last seven starts.

He'll be on the mound for the 'Stros when they visit the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field Sunday. The Tribe is currently -157 faves with a total of eight, per BetOnline.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends show Braves dominating Cincinnati
Stephen Campbell

The Atlanta Braves have been on a tear lately, and recent history is showing they love playing against the Cincinnati Reds - their opponent Sunday.

The Braves are 5-0 in their last five meetings against Cincy through Saturday. BetOnline currently lists Atlanta as -112 favorites with a total of eight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Under trending when this club is on the road
Stephen Campbell

The Chicago White Sox have been participating in a lot of low scoring games away from U.S. Cellular Field as of late.

The Under is a red-hot 6-1 in the ChiSox's last seven games on the road through Saturday, which is a good omen for backers as they'll take on the New York Yankees in the Bronx Sunday afternoon.

BetOnline presently has Chicago as -128 faves with a total of seven.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Sports Informer
NFL
1* Arizona -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

Preseason GOY
2* Over 42 Chargers / 49ers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League
Cardinals-Phillies
Masterson is 2-1, 6.00 in three starts for St Louis.
Williams is 1-0, 1.76 in two starts for the Phillies.

Cardinals won eight of their last ten games.
Phillies are 10-6 in their last sixteen 16 home games.

Last seven Cardinal games went over the total.

Giants-Nationals
Vogelsong is 2-1, 2.08 in his last four starts.
Strasburg is 3-2, 2.65 in his last five starts.

Giants won five of their last seven games.
Nationals won 12 of their last 13 games.

Over is 9-2-2 in last thirteen Washington home games.

Braves-Reds
Harang is 5-1, 3.22 in his last 11 starts (Braves 0-5 in no-decisions).
Reds lost last seven Simon starts (0-5, 6.38).

Braves won seven of their last nine games.
Reds lost ten of their last twelve games.

Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Cincinnati games

Pirates-Brewers
Worley is 0-2, 8.74 in his last couple starts.
Fiers is 2-0, 0.86 in his three starts this season.

Pirates lost seven of their last ten games.
Brewers lost last three games, allowing 27 runs.

Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Pittsburgh games.

Marlins-Rockies
Hand is 0-3, 5.40 in his last four starts.
Bergman was 0-2, 7.20 in three starts back in June.

Marlins are 9-5 in their last fourteen games.
Colorado won four of its last five games.

Six of last nine Colorado games went over total.

Padres-Diamondbacks
Former D'back Kennedy is 1-2, 5.82 in his last three starts.
Anderson is 2-0, 1.88 in his last four home starts.

Padres lost five of their last six games.
Arizona lost six of its last eight games.

Last four games for both San Diego/Arizona stayed under.

Mets-Dodgers
Colon lost his mom earlier this week; he is 1-1, 1.80 in his last two starts.
Correia is 2-0, 4.09 in two starts for the Dodgers.

Mets lost eight of their last eleven games.
Dodgers won four of their last five games.

Over is 8-1-1 in Mets' last ten road games.

American League
Astros-Indians
Oberholtzer is 2-1, 3.27 in his last five starts.
Bauer is 0-3, 6.15 in his last six starts.

Astros won four of their last six games.
Cleveland won eight of its last twelve games.

11 of last 12 Cleveland games stayed under total.

White Sox-Bronx
Sale is 4-2, 2.09 in his last nine starts.
Capuano is 1-2, 4.45 in five starts this season.

White Sox lost six of their last seven games.
Bronx won its last three games, allowing six runs.

Seven of last eight Bronx games stayed under.



Rays-Blue Jays
Archer is 2-1, 3.65 in his last four starts.
Hutchison is 1-2, 6.66 in his last four starts.

Rays lost five of their last seven games.
Toronto lost seven of its last ten games.

Under is 9-3-2 in last fourteen Tampa Bay games.

Mariners-Red Sox
Iwakuma is 3-0, 0.42 in his last three starts.
Webster is 3-1, 5.06 in five starts this season.

Mariners won 13 of their last 17 games.
Boston lost its last seven games, scoring 15 runs.

Three of last four Boston games went over total.

Royals-Rangers
Vargas is 2-0, 1.29 in his last three starts.
Baker is 0-3, 6.97 in four starts this season.

Royals won 19 of their last 23 games.
Texas lost seven of its last nine games.

Over is 5-2-2 in last nine Royal games.

Tigers-Twins
Scherzer is 3-1, 2.20 in his last six starts.
Gibson is 1-1, 6.00 in his last three starts.

Detroit lost 13 of its last 18 road games.
Minnesota lost five of its last eight games.

Five of last seven Detroit games went over total.

Angels-A's
Weaver is 2-1, 5.40 in his last five starts.
Kazmir is 2-2, 4.56 in his last four starts. .

Angels won eight of their last eleven games, but lost last two.
Oakland won eight of its last eleven home games.

Eight of last ten Angel games stayed under.

Interleague games
Orioles-Cubs
Gonzalez is 2-1, 2.66 in his last six starts.
Wada is 3-0, 2.08 in his last five starts.

Baltimore won 12 of its last 18 games, but lost last two.
Cubs won five of their last seven games.

Six of last eight Baltimore games stayed under.

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Harang 13-13; Simon 15-10 (0-7 last 7)
-- Masterson 10-9/2-1; Williams 1-1/1-1
-- Vogelsong 13-12; Strasburg 14-13
-- Worley 6-5; Fiers 3-0
-- Colon 13-11; Correia 6-17/2-0
-- Hand 4-7; Bergman 1-2
-- Kennedy 12-14; Anderson 9-7

-- Oberholtzer 8-10; Bauer 10-9
-- Archer 13-12; Hutchison 12-13
-- Sale 13-7; Capuano 1-4
-- Iwakuma 13-8; Webster 3-2
-- Scherzer 18-8; Gibson 11-13
-- Vargas 13-10; Baker 0-4
-- Weaver 17-10; Kazmir 18-7

-- Gonzalez 10-9; Wada 3-4

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Harang 5-26; Simon 7-25
-- Masterson 5-22; Williams 1-4
-- Vogelsong 6-25 (3 of last 3); Strasburg 10-27 (4 of last 7)
-- Worley 2-11; Fiers 0-3
-- Colon 7-25; Correia 5-25
-- Hand 4-11; Bergman 2-3
-- Kennedy 8-26; Anderson 3-17

-- Oberholtzer 8-18; Bauer 8-19 (3 of last 4)
-- Archer 4-25; Hutchison 5-25
-- Sale 1-20; Capuano 2-5
-- Iwakuma 4-21; Webster 0-5
-- Scherzer 7-26; Gibson 6-24
-- Vargas 2-23; Baker 0-4
-- Weaver 6-27; Kazmir 4-25

-- Gonzalez 4-19; Wada 1-7

Umpires
-- SF-Wsh-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Conroy games; dogs won last five.
-- StL-Phil-- Four of last five Reyburn games stayed under.
-- Pitt-Mil-- Home side won nine of last ten Cuzzi games.
-- Atl-Cin-- Four of last six Carlson games went over total.
-- Mia-Col-- Underdogs won six of last nine TWelke games.
-- SD-Az-- Over is 13-1-1 in last fifteen Morales games.
-- NY-LA-- Underdogs won four of last seven Scott games.

-- TB-Tor-- 13 of last 17 BWelke games stayed under.
-- Chi-NY-- Eight of last twelve Winters games stayed under.
-- Det-Min-- Nine of last eleven Cooper games stayed under.
-- Sea-Bos-- Under is 9-4 in last 13 Carapazza games; underdogs won 12 of his last 17 games behind the plate.
-- Hst-Clev-- Six of last nine Barksdale games stayed under.
-- KC-Tex-- 15 of 19 Basner games went over the total.
-- LA-A's-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Everitt games.

-- Balt-Chi-- 12 of last 16 Iassogna games stayed under.