8-26-14

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Kevin's Pick(s):

Two big underdog winners last night, and that makes our system plays 4-1 over their last 5 (with no higher than -109 odds). Today is by the far the busiest day of the year for me with 6 system plays going...

2 UNIT = Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Angels - UNDER 8 RUNS (-112)
Listed Pitchers: Eovaldi vs Shoemaker
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.79 units)

2 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners - RANGERS TO WIN (+181)
Listed Pitchers: Martinez vs Paxton
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.62 units)

2 UNIT = Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox - INDIANS TO WIN (+112)
Listed Pitchers: House vs Quintana
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.24 units)

2 UNIT = St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates - CARDINALS TO WIN (+120)
Listed Pitchers: Lynn vs Cole
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.40 units)

2 UNIT = Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays - RED SOX TO WIN (+114)
Listed Pitchers: De La Rosa vs Dickey
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.28 units)

2 UNIT = Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles - ORIOLES TO WIN (-104)
Listed Pitchers: Cobb vs Chen
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.92 units)

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Kyle's Pick(s)

2 UNIT = Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds - REDS -1.5 (+107)
Listed Pitchers: Wood vs. Cueto
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.14 units)
The Blue Jays have Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista, and Encarnacion. All failed to get a hit until it was the 9th inning. They did tie it up, but it was more of a tease because the Jays gave it right back in the next inning, ultimately losing 4-3 in extras. It doesn't matter if it is hockey or baseball, both Toronto teams have the same syndrome.
I am looking to catch Cueto on the bounce back after he gave up 4 runs in his most recent start. That ties for his second worst start of the year. That was on the road however, where he has been strong, but not automatic like we have come to find out in Cincinnati. Cueto has a road ERA of 2.56 which is strong in its own right, but that number falls to 1.81 at home. He also possesses a WHIP of 0.82 at home compared to 1.07 away. The Cincinnati offense had a horrible stretch for awhile there, but with Brandon Philips back I think they'll be better. Considerably better? Without Joey Votto around I doubt that, however, they should do enough to give Cueto a relatively easy win here tonight. The Cubs are hitting only .227 against right-handers, they get a pretty damn good righty tonight. The Reds' hitters will have the opportunity to do well against Travis Wood, a pitcher that has been struggling mightily. He's pitched 71.2 innings on the road and has a 6.03 ERA and 1.76 WHIP to show for it. In 13 starts on the road, 10 of them he allowed more than 2 runs. I don't think it'll take much for the Reds to win and cover -1.5 because I expect Cueto to roll through this lineup. I figure if the Reds can make it to 4 runs, which I believe they will, they'll cover the number. With that said give me the Reds.

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Worlds Worst Picker

Detroit
St Louis
Baltimore
Boston

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Tom Barton

2* Cincinnati -180

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Robert Ferringo


2* SF -1.5 +110
2* Dodgers -115
2* Detroit -120
2* Seattle -1.5 +105
1* Angels -175

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Allen Eastman


3* Under 7.5 TB/ BAL
2* Detroit -120
2*STL Cards +120

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Scott Rickenbach

Boston Over

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John Ryan


Arizona

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Doc Sports


4* NYY +100
3* Houston +110
3* Angels -175

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Mike Davis


4* Over 6.5 COL/SF
4* SF -1.5 (+110)
4* Angels -1.5 (+110)

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Ben Burns (0-6 past 2 days)


Padres
Phillies
Reds

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JEFFREY JAMES

Play of the Day

#908 Cincinnati Reds with Cueto moneyline -205 (7:05 edt)
I usually don’t like the big favorites in baseball but the Reds are just in too good of a spot here to miss out. Cueto is way better than Wood and the Reds have been dominant over the Cubbies at 35-13 against them over the past few seasons including 5-2 in Cincy this season. The Cubs are a horrible 17-35 when the total is 7 or less and they are 19-33 in the division. Take the Reds here as the play of the day.

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RIVER CITY SHARPS

We are going back to the well tonight with the Cards. It worked for us last night and one of the things we like about tonight’s match up is Lance Lynn (14-8 2.78) on the hill for St Louis. He has been lights out lately, 6-2 with a 1.73 ERA in nine starts since surrendering a season-high six earned runs in a 9-1 loss to the Dodgers on June 28.He also does not give up the long ball, as he has allowed just three home runs in 128 2/3 innings over his last 21 starts and his 0.40 home runs allowed per nine innings is the second lowest rate in the NL behind teammate Adam Wainwright. Important fact here is that the Pirates have been living off the long ball, nine home runs have accounted for 15 of the 23 runs over the last four games for the Bucs. The Cards are 7-3 their last 10 and the Pirates conversely are 3-7 in their last 10. We see value here again and will ride the road dog. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (+119)

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BONES BEST BET

ROYALS -1 -116 *5* BEST BET

Two very different teams here as we will gladly take the superior at home. The Royals have produced 4 or more runs in 7 of their past 11 games. They have also won 18 straight games when scoring more than 3 runs. The Minnesota Twins on the other hand have lost six of their last 10 games and are 14 games below .500. Pitching matchup here favors the Royals huge with Duffy having a solid season with a 2.53 ERA and a 3-1 lifetime record vs these Twins. He faces Ricky Nolasco who is a horrid 5-9 on the year with a near 6 ERA at 5.96. The Twins are 1-5 in Nolascos last 6 road starts and 1-4 in Nolascos last 5 starts overall. The Royals are 10-4 in Duffys last 14 home starts and 5-1 in Duffys last 6 starts overall. The Twins are 4-12 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City.

MARINERS ML + ANGELS ML +144 *3*

Everyone knows how bad Texas is and how solid the Mariners have been this season but Paxton for the Mariners has been fantastic with a 1.10 WHIP and a 2.20 ERA in his 6 starts this season. Martinez for the Rangers has not faired nearly as well with a 1.59 WHIP and a 5.13 ERA.

Shoemaker has been incredible lately for the Angels and we love one of the best teams in baseball in this spot. LA has an incredible 41-24 record at home whle the Marlin are just 28-34 away from Miami.

CUBS ML +175 *1*

Even with a couple wins in a row, we do not trust the Reds and certainly want to play against them at +175 even though it is Cueto on the mound. The Cubs have turned it on sweeping Baltimore and winning 6 of 8 overall. We have faith in Wood to get the job done against a Reds team that is scoring just 2 runs per game over their past 5 contests.

DODGERS ML -110 *3*

Even money with the Dodgers on the road is a profitable bet. They are 14 games above .500 on the road this year and the Dbacks are 13 games below .500 at home. The Dodgers have won 6 of their last 10 games vs the Dbacks as well. The Dodgers have won 4 of 6 games and the Dbacks have only won 2 of 9. The Dodgers have an edge on the mound too. Hernandez has a lower ERA and WHIP than Cahill does this year.

ATHLETICS @ ASTROS OVER 8 -110 *2*
ASTROS ML +109 *2*

Hammel has been a disaster since coming over to Oakland. He 1-5 overall with a 6.75 ERA and extremely high 1.88 WHIP. In his 4 road starts for the A’s, he has pitched a total of just 18 innings, has an 0-4 record, a 9.00 ERA, and a 1.94 WHIP. One of these starts was against Houston where he pitched just 4.1 innings allowing 8 earned runs on July 30th.

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INSIDE VEGAS / Cory Kluge

3 MLB Sharp Plays

Pittsburgh Pirates-128

Arizona Diamondbacks+107

San Diego Padres -120