8-28-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pitcher can't defend home field against opponent
Justin Hartling

John Danks has only faced the Cleveland Indians a handful of times at U.S. Cellular Field, but it has not been friendly to him at all. In Danks' last six starts against the Indians in Chicago has seen him and the White Sox go 1-5.

Danks has given up seven or more hits in four of the games while also giving up more than five runs on four occasions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Umpire has meant only good things for this team
Justin Hartling

The Baltimore Orioles are trying to widen their lead in the American League East and their chances look better with Lazaro Diaz behind home plate. The Orioles are 5-0 in the last five with Diaz behind home plate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Under paying out with this pitcher on the mound
Justin Hartling

Hiroki Kuroda has enjoyed success facing the Detroit Tigers. In Kuroda's last four starts against the Tigers, the under has a flawless record.

Kuroda has not once allowed more than three runs against the Tigers in those starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League

Braves-Mets
Minor is 1-0, 1.84 in his last two starts.
Niese is 2-5, 5.64 in his last seven starts.

Atlanta lost three of its last four games.
Mets lost six of their last nine games.

Five of last seven New York games went over total.

Cubs-Reds
Arrieta is 1-1, 1.27 in his last three starts.
Axelrod allowed two runs in six IP in his first '14 start.

Cubs won seven of their last ten games.
Cincinnati lost 11 of its last 15 games.

Seven of last ten Chicago games stayed under; over is 9-4-1 in Cincinnati's last fourteen games.

Rockies-Giants
Lyles is 0-0, 5.63 in his last three starts.
Petit is 0-2, 8.17 in his last five starts, last of which was July 22. He's retired 37 batters in a row pitching in relief (six appearances) since then.

Colorado won six of its last nine games.
Giants won last two games, but are 12-24 in last 36 home games.

Four of last five Colorado games stayed under total.


American League

Rays-Orioles
Hellickson is 1-1, 2.22 in his last four starts. .
Norris is 3-1, 3.76 in his last five starts.

Tampa Bay lost seven of its last eleven games.
Orioles won four of their last five home games.

Nine of last twelve Baltimore games stayed under.

Bronx-Tigers
Kuroda is 2-0, 2.84 in his last two starts.
Lobstein is making first MLB start; he was 9-11, 4.07 in 25 AAA starts, and allowed three runs in 5.2 IP in his first MLB relief stint.

Bronx won six of its last seven games.
Detroit won seven of its last ten home games.

Eight of last twelve Bronx games stayed under total.

Twins-Royals
Milone is 0-1, 10.80 in three starts for Minnesota.
Guthrie is 5-1, 4.02 in his last six starts.

Minnesota lost eight of its last eleven games.
Royals won 21 of their last 27 games.

Seven of last eleven Minnesota games went over total.

Rangers-Astros
Tepesch is 0-1, 4.43 in his last three starts.
McHugh is 3-0, 1.76 in his last five starts.

Texas won three of its last four games.
Astros lost five of their last seven games.

Six of last nine Houston games stayed under total.

Indians-White Sox
Carrasco is 2-0, 0.50 in his last three starts
Danks is 0-2, 7.67 in his last five starts.

Cleveland won ten of its last fifteen games.
White Sox lost seven of their last eight games.

12 of last 15 Cleveland games stayed under total.

A's-Angels
Gray is 1-3, 6.12 in his last four starts.
Wilson is 2-0, 1.96 in his last three starts.

Oakland won four of last six games, but lost eight of last eleven on road.
Angels won 11 of their last 15 games.

Under is 10-4 in last fourteen Angel games.


Interleague games

None

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Arrieta 12-8; Axelrod 0-1
-- Lyles 9-7; Petit 3-3
-- Minor 10-10; Niese 12-12

-- Kuroda 12-14; Lobstein 0-0
-- Hellickson 3-4; Norris 13-9
-- Milone 9-7/2-1; Guthrie 15-11
-- Carrasco 3-4; Danks 11-15
-- Tepesch 7-9; McHugh 8-12
-- Gray 16-10; Wilson 12-12

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Arrieta 5-20; Axelrod 0-1
-- Lyles 5-16; Petit 2-6
-- Minor 6-20; Niese 7-24

-- Kuroda 11-26 (5 of last 6); Lobstein 0-0
-- Hellickson 1-7; Norris 7-22
-- Milone 9-19; Guthrie 11-26 (4 of last 4)
-- Carrasco 2-7; Danks 7-26
-- Tepesch 6-16; McHugh 9-20
-- Gray 10-26 (3 of last 3); Wilson 5-24

Umpires
-- Chi-Cin-- Favorites won all five May games.
-- Col-SF-- Three of last four Hudson games stayed under.
-- Atl-NY-- Underdogs won 16 of last 22 Wegner games.

-- Min-KC-- Nine of last eleven Hickox games stayed under.
-- TB-Balt-- 12 of last 18 Diaz games went over the total.
-- NY-Det-- Favorites won eight of last ten Tumpane games.
-- Cle-Chi-- Visiting team won eight of last ten Porter games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL REPORT

***** National Football League Preseason Week #4 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Pre-Season Betting News And Notes - Week #4
•League Fines Carroll, Seahawks $300K: The NFL has fined the Seattle Seahawks $300,000 for violating the collective bargaining agreement provision on offseason no-contact rules. ESPN reported that head coach Pete Carroll was fined $100,000 and the team $200,000. The Seahawks have been accused of allowing players to engage in "excessive levels of on-field contact" during the team's mandatory minicamp for veterans on June 16. In addition to the financial penalty, the team will lose two days of on-field two-a-days for veterans and will have its final day of minicamp limited. Players will be paid for the cancelled practice sessions. Carroll and the team also were fined in 2012 for a similar violation.

•Marino Joins Dolphins' Front Office: Dan Marino is coming home. The legendary Miami Dolphins quarterback has joined the team's front office. "It's official! I am excited about the future of this great organization!" Marino tweeted Sunday. NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport broke the news that Marino's official title is special advisor. The team later confirmed the position via a statement on its website. "Dan is and will always be an important part of the Miami Dolphins and we are excited to get him involved in a more formal way," Dolphins owner Stephen Ross said in the statement.

"Dan is unquestionably one of the greatest players in NFL history and his enthusiasm and passion for the Dolphins is inspiring to everyone here." "I'm grateful for the opportunity to serve in this role. I have always considered myself a Dolphin for life and I look forward to supporting the organization anyway I can," Marino said in the press release. This will be Marino's second foray with the Dolphins' front office. In 2004, Marino joined as senior vice president of football operations. However, he resigned just three weeks later, stating that the move was "not... in the best interests of either my family or the Dolphins."

•Broncos Acquire K McManus: In need of a kicker with Matt Prater suspended for the first four games of the regular season, the Denver Broncos acquired Brandon McManus from the New York Giants on Tuesday. The Broncos sent a conditional seventh-round draft pick to the Giants for the rights to McManus, an undrafted free agent from Temple. The 23-year-old McManus failed to beat out Josh Brown for a job with the Giants but was impressive in the preseason, kicking field goals of 46 and 47 yards. Of his 11 preseason kickoffs, 10 were touchbacks. The versatile McManus also can handle punting duties.

Mitch Ewald, a rookie from Indiana, was expected to get an audition for the job in the final preseason game on Thursday night, but was waived in conjunction with the McManus deal. Ewald was 0 of 1 on field goal attempts last week for the Broncos. If McManus does not make the final 53-player roster on Saturday during final cuts, the Broncos will not be required to compensate the Giants. Prater, one of the NFL's top kickers, was suspended for the first four games this season by the NFL because of a violation of the league's substance-abuse policy related to alcohol.

•Redskins Safety Meriweather To Appeal Suspension: Washington Redskins safety Brandon Meriweather will appeal his two-game suspension that the NFL levied for his latest helmet-to-helmet blow, a hit his coach called a "legitimate football play." The NFL's statement on the hit Saturday at Baltimore, when officials ruled Meriweather hit Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith "with forcible contact to the head and neck area... on a pass play" cited no attempt to make a form tackle or wrap up the offensive player. Redskins head coach Jay Gruden is hoping that the league will reduce or revoke the penalty. "Unfortunately, for Brandon, he's got a history of these types of events," Gruden told reporters. This is the sixth time Meriweather has been cited for a violation of player safety rules.

"Whether or not it was significant enough to warrant a suspension is what they decided.... He tried to lower his target, I thought. I thought it was a legitimate football play, but the NFL didn't see it that way." The Redskins contend that Meriweather could not avoid a helmet-to-helmet hit has both he and Smith lowered their heads as a pass sailed incomplete across the middle. Smith said via Twitter that he does not think Meriweather should be suspended. He did add his feeling might be different if he had been injured on the play. The league suspended Meriweather for two games last season for helmet-first hits. After an appeal, that suspension was reduced to one game.

•Dolphins Part Ways With QB Quinn: At least Brady Quinn has a job with Fox. The veteran quarterback, who signed with Miami Dolphins two weeks ago, announced via Twitter on Tuesday that he had been released. "It was short lived, but I enjoyed every second. Thank you Miami Dolphins for the opportunity to play the game I love again. Best of luck to all the players and coaches this season," Quinn wrote. The Dolphins made other roster moves to reach the 75-player limit. They designated defensive tackle A.J. Francis, running back Mike Gillislee and tight end Arthur Lynch as reserve/injured and waived wide receivers Armon Binns and Ryan Spadola, tight end Brett Brackett, cornerback Steven Clarke, defensive tackle Cory Grissom and center Tyler Larsen.

Lynch was a fifth-round draft pick this year. Gillislee was drafted in the fifth round in 2013 but buried on the depth chart behind three other running backs. The 29-year-old Quinn had hoped to resurrect his career in Miami. The Dolphins were looking for some insurance for starter Ryan Tannehill and backup Matt Moore. Even though he hopes to keep playing, Quinn does have a television deal with Fox Sports. He also recently tried out with the New England Patriots. Quinn split last season between the New York Jets and the St. Louis Rams, but he did not throw a pass. He played in 10 games and made eight starts for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2012 compiling a 1-7 record. Counting his time from 2007-09 with the Cleveland Browns, he has a 4-16 career record as a starter. For his career, Quinn has a 53.8 percent completion rate, 12 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions. The Notre Dame product was Cleveland's first-round pick (22nd overall) in 2007.

•Bengals Make Roster Moves: The Cincinnati Bengals trimmed their roster before the Tuesday deadline to reach the 75-player limit mandated by the NFL. Quarterback Matt Scott, wide receiver Jasper Collins, linebacker James Davidson and second-year tight end Kevin Brock were released by the team. Linebacker JK Schaffer and cornerback LaVelle Westbrooks were waived/injured. Schaffer, a second-year linebacker from the University of Cincinnati, has a head injury and Westbrooks, a seventh-round draft pick from Georgia Southern, is sidelined with a thumb injury.

If they clear waivers on Wednesday, both will go on the Bengals' reserve/injured list. Schaffer played in only one preseason game after taking two blows to the head and suffering a concussion. Last year, he saw action in nine games and had three tackles on defense and six on special teams. Davidson and Scott, who didn't play in the Bengals' 19-13 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in the third preseason game, are rookies. The Bengals wrap up the preseason schedule at home on Thursday night against the Indianapolis Colts.
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NFL's Week #1 Biggest Underdogs
Systems Analyst William Stillman

The National Football League can see some huge spreads on a weekly basis. Last year the Jacksonville Jaguars were a 27-point underdog against the Denver Broncos and a 19-point dog against the Seattle Seahawks (they went 1-1 ATS). Lines of that magnitude, however, are rare, and big underdogs tend to stay in the 10- to 14-point range. Heading into the opening week of the 2014 season there is only one double-digit favorite, and most of the lines were set in the 2.5- to 3.5-point range, which should make handicapping Week #1 especially difficult for bettors.

There were a few other lines that may not be considered huge but could provide bettors with enough value to make a well-timed wager on an underdog plus the points. Let’s spend a few minutes and take a closer look at the biggest underdogs on the board for Week #1 and figure out which, if any, have the most value to wager on. Note: All lines come courtesy from Sportsbook.ag.

•Jacksonville Jaguars (+11) @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Jaguars are the biggest dog of the week , but they should be better than last year’s horrendous four-win squad. The team drafted an excellent quarterback in Blake Bortles and surrounded him with a couple of very good wide receivers they picked up in the second and third rounds of the draft. The trouble for Jacksonville is they do not plan to play Bortles unless there is an emergency or Chad Henne falters, and it could take a season or two for its talent to begin paying dividends.

The Eagles, on the other hand, are always stocked with offensive talent and have the high-paced system under second-year head coach Chip Kelly to score points in a hurry. Last year Philadelphia ended the season with an 8-8 ATS record, but it also took Jacksonville 15 weeks to lose by less than 10 points. This matchup is not a great spot to wager on the underdog.

•Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) @ Denver Broncos
At first glance, betting on Andrew Luck and the Colts at +7.5 points feels like a great spread. In 2013 the team produced a 10-6 ATS record and was never out of a game as Luck continually lead his team to multiple fourth-quarter comebacks. The trouble with the line is that Denver is a machine built on accuracy and precision that is also being led by the greatest regular-season quarterback of all time. Denver ended the 2013 season with an 11-5 ATS record and had 10 double-digit victories last season.

Indianapolis did beat Denver, however, during a Week #7 home matchup and has the offensive firepower to at least keep up with the Broncos. It is never wise to underestimate Peyton Manning, but the Colts could very well win this game. This matchup feels like a great spot to wager on a live underdog getting more than a touchdown’s worth of points.

•Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Chicago Bears
In 2013 the Bills were one of the worst road ATS squads in the league. The team produced a 1-6 record as a road underdog and failed to cover those spreads by a whopping seven points. Buffalo will have more experience on offense with their second-year quarterback EJ Manuel behind center, but it will probably struggling to score points yet again.

Buffalo will also have the rumors of the team being sold hanging over its head, and even though the team will certainly cover spreads, wagering on them during the 2014 NFL season might not be the best idea. The Bears will be a team with playoff potential, while the Bills are looking at another 7-9 or 8-8 season at best. This is not a great situation to wager on the underdog.
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September Trends To Watch
Systems Analyst Todd Smith

With Week #4 of the National Football League preseason coming to a close on Thursday night, and with all 16 teams hitting the gridiron. That means it is now September, and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and sports junkies alike. Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of the year. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. Note: All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

Home Teams

•Keep An Eye On (Good): The NFC North's Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record (62.7%) in the opening month of the season, and will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and divisional foe Green Bay Packers (9/21).

•Keep An Eye On (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 versus the number (26.0%) and they will face the Atlanta Falcons along with the Tennessee Titans in Week’s #2 and #3.

--New head coach Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in our Nation’s Capital as Washington sits 15-26 against the spread, just 36.5 percent when the Jacksonville Jaguars (9/14) and the New York Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.

--The Arizona Cardinals will have two shots to improve on their money-burning 13-22 against the spread record (37.1%) with the AFC West San Diego Chargers in the desert on the opening Monday night of the 2014 campaign and division rival San Francisco 13 days later.

Away Teams

•Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior Play Against road team at 14-29 ATS, 32.5%. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Raymond James Stadium versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9/14).

•Keep An Eye On (Bad): This has been an unsolved mystery for years why the Pittsburgh Steelers have been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS (34.1%), and never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do on a short week at the Baltimore Ravens (9/11) and 10 days later at the Carolina Panthers.

--As good as Detroit has been at home during the month of September, that’s how bad they are away from the Motor City, just 37.2 percent at 16-27 versus the number dating back to 1971. Keep a watchful eye on them at the Carolina Panthers (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets.

Favorites

•Keep An Eye On (Good): The Seattle Seahawks, winners of Super Bowl XLVIII are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS (64.2%) and should be favored in all three confrontations against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 straight-up and 13-5 versus the number at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.

•Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS (29.1%) and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the 2014 campaign being anticipated as favorites.

--Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS, 30.4%) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. With all the information about Sam Bradford and his injured knee flying around the internet fast and furiously... and some of its conflicting, the Rams (12-24 ATS, 33.3%) are a Week #1 home favorite versus the Minnesota Vikings, but Week #3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.

•Keep An Eye On (Bad): As mentioned above, the Cincinnati Bengals will have two home encounters and will be dishing out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role at 34.3 percent. You might have to look to the other side.

Underdogs

•Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable to say the least. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 versus the number 69.6%. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Cowboys could be underdogs the entire month facing San Francisco (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints travel to Texas on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.

•Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog, sitting at 9-20 against the spread, with just a thirty-one percent return on investment. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more Play Against opportunities for NFL bettors.

Division

•Good: The Kansas City Chiefs have annually fared well against AFC West rivals early on in the season, recording a 22-11 against the spread record (66.6%), and makes the trip to Mile High Stadium to take on Denver in Week #2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.

•Keep An Eye On (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a Play Against squad in our Annual September Team Watch Article you are absolutely correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on September 7th with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.
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Long-Shots To Win 2014 NFL MVP
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner

Since 2000, the National Football League Most Valuable Player Award has been given to a quarterback 10 times, with running backs picking up the other three MVP nods. And, heading into the 2014 season, oddsmakers have given football bettors little reason to believe that’s going to change. Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck all top the NFL MVP props board, but for those NFL offseason bettors looking for value, here are three live long shots to earn NFL’s top individual honor. Note: Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.

•Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (+5,000)
There are rumblings in the Motor City that 2014 could finally be the year the Lions live up to expectations. Detroit is strong on both sides of the ball but Stafford headlines one of the most dynamic scoring attacks in the NFL, with Calvin Johnson (+2,000 to win MVP), Reggie Bush, and Golden Tate. If the Lions take the NFC North, we wouldn’t be surprised if Stafford’s name pops up in MVP chats – perhaps even splitting the honor with Megatron, like a Stockton-and-Malone dynamic.

•Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (+5,000)
The AFC North looks like it is up for grabs once again, and the Steelers come into 2014 with a bad taste in their mouths after missing out on the postseason the past two years. Roethlisberger watched his numbers skyrocket when Pittsburgh injected its offense with a no-huddle attack, throwing for 4,261 yards and 28 touchdowns. Big Ben still needs better protection from his offensive line, which allowed 2.7 sacks per game in 2013. But with Pittsburgh adding some pop to the running game, thanks Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, defenses won’t be able to tee off with the pass rush like they did when the Steelers stumbled for 86.4 rushing yards per game – fifth lowest in 2013.

•Arian Foster, Houston Texans (+15,000)
If the Texans are going to rise from the dead in the AFC South, a lot of that burden will fall on the injury-prone shoulders of Arian Foster. Houston’s defense should take care of business, so the offense won’t need to score a ton of points. However, with Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the starting job, the Texans are hoping Foster can return to his form of the previous three seasons, when he rumbled for a combined 4,264 yards and 41 touchdowns. A postseason return for Houston and a healthy, productive year from Foster could make him a very live long shot for MVP.
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#101 ATLANTA @ #102 JACKSONVILLE
Line: Jaguars -4, Total: 39.5

Despite a very strong preseason from No. 3 overall pick Blake Bortles, the Jacksonville Jaguars will close their preseason against the Atlanta Falcons (6:00 PM EST) on Thursday evening by sticking to the original plan. Veteran quarterback Chad Henne will be the rebuilding Jaguars starter at the game's most important position during Week #1 of the regular season against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sept. 7.

Both have performed admirably in Jacksonville's practice games thus far with Bortles finishing 10-of-16 passing for 158 yards and a touchdown last week in a 13-12 setback at Detroit. Overall, the No. 1 pick who is regarded as the future in Jacksonville, is 28-of-44 for 435 yards and a touchdown with a passer rating of 103.9 in the preseason. Henne, meanwhile, was 9-of-14 for 70 yards against the Lions and is 25-of-38 in the preseason for 230 yards and one touchdown, good for a 90.9 passer rating.

If things continue to go to plan for the Jags, this might be the last time Bortles plays in 2014. "It could be," Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley admitted. "I haven't talked to him about it. I just say 'hey, continue to prepare. You're a play away. You have to have that mindset like that. Just keep working and sitting in those meetings, take good notes.' "But I don't know, we haven't talked that much about it. It's been mostly this game, capture it and perform well in practice."

The Falcons will be trying to close their preseason slate on an up note after falling to the Tennessee Titans, 24-17, at the Georgia Dome last week. Matt Ryan was as sharp as ever for Atlanta, completing 18-of-23 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns. Julio Jones hauled in a 52-yard touchdown pass and Devin Hester brought in a 31-yard TD pass to highlight a four-reception, 56- yard effort for the Falcons. Jacquizz Rodgers carried the ball eight times for 33 yards and caught five passes for 31 yards in defeat.

These two clubs have met 10 times in the preseason, including each of the last four seasons. The Jaguars lead the all-time preseason series 7-3, including a 20-16 win at the Georgia Dome in 2013.

•KEY STATS
--ATLANTA is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was ATLANTA 17.8, OPPONENT 15.9.

--ATLANTA is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total off a home loss since 1993.
The average score was ATLANTA 9.0, OPPONENT 5.9.

--JACKSONVILLE is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1993.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 27.2, OPPONENT 15.6.

--JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game since 1993.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 25.1, OPPONENT 25.0.

--JACKSONVILLE is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1993.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 12.3, OPPONENT 8.3.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 21 times, while the favorite covered the spread 11 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 16 times. 22 games went under the total, while 19 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 41 times, while the favorite covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 36 games went over first half total, while 19 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home teams of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games.
(30-5 since 1993.) (85.7%, +24.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-5)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.6
The average score in these games was: Team 23.5, Opponent 13.9 (Average point differential = +9.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
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#103 DETROIT @ #104 BUFFALO
Line: Bills -4.5, Total: 41

The Buffalo Bills will finish off an extended preseason slate by hosting the Detroit Lions (7:00 PM EST) on Thursday night. It's been a disappointing exhibition season overall for Buffalo, which fell to 1-3 last week when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers came into Orchard Park and built a big halftime lead behind touchdowns from Doug Martin and Mike Evans before holding on to top the Bills 27-14.

EJ Manuel played three quarters for the Bills and passed for 198 yards and a touchdown but also turned the ball over twice on a fumble and an interception. C.J. Spiller rushed for 36 yards and Fred Jackson and Mike Williams scored touchdowns in the loss as Buffalo played without rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins (ribs).

The Lions, on the other hand, are above water in the preseason after George Winn's 1-yard touchdown run with 7:12 remaining lifted Detroit over the Jacksonville Jaguars, 13-12, last week. Reggie Bush recorded an 86-yard TD run in the first quarter for the Lions, who won despite committing 15 penalties for 131 yards. Bush ended with two carries for 95 yards. Matthew Stafford, who played into the third quarter, completed 10-of-16 passes for 98 yards and an interception. Dan Orlovsky connected on 9-of-11 passes for 74 yards.

•KEY STATS
--DETROIT is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=4.75 yards/play since 1993.
The average score was DETROIT 12.6, OPPONENT 13.3.

--DETROIT is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 19.4, OPPONENT 6.9.

--DETROIT is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total is between 19.5 and 21 since 1993.
The average score was DETROIT 11.8, OPPONENT 13.1.

--BUFFALO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was BUFFALO 15.9, OPPONENT 20.5.

--BUFFALO is 36-19 UNDER (+15.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.
The average score was BUFFALO 15.3, OPPONENT 18.4.

--BUFFALO is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1993.
The average score was BUFFALO 3.9, OPPONENT 15.3.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 16 times, while the favorite covered the spread 4 times. *EDGE against the spread =DETROIT. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 14 games went under the total, while 12 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 35 times, while the favorite covered first half line 19 times. *No EDGE. 22 games went over first half total, while 17 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (BUFFALO) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half against a poor punt coverage team, allowing more than 12 yards per return, after scoring 14 points or less last game.
(39-13 since 1993.) (75.0%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.6, Opponent 12.8 (Total first half points scored = 22.4)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#105 INDIANAPOLIS @ #106 CINCINNATI
Line: Bengals -2.5, Total: 41.5

he Indianapolis Colts will try to avoid a winless preseason when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals (7:00 PM EST) on Thursday night. The Colts latest setback came at the hands of Drew Brees when the veteran passed for 128 yards and two touchdowns as New Orleans outlasted Indianapolis, 23-17. Andrew Luck and Chandler Harnish each produced a TD pass for the Colts, who dropped to 0-3 in practice games. Luck started and was 10-of-18 for 103 yards with a pick for the hosts. Coby Fleener and Josh Lenz reached the end zone on passes, while Dan Herron led all rushers with 68 yards on eight carries.

The Bengals got their first preseason win last week when Terence Newman returned an interception for a touchdown and Cincinnati kicked four field goals en route to a 19-13 preseason victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Andy Dalton completed 13-of-21 passes for 157 yards for Cincinnati, while Mohamed Sanu and A.J. Green both caught five passes for 70 and 53 yards, respectively, in the triumph. Mike Nugent and Quinn Sharp, who were competing for the starting kicker job, each made two field goals. The veteran Nugent kept his job, however, as Sharp was released earlier this week.

•KEY STATS
--INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.1, OPPONENT 24.2.

--INDIANAPOLIS is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 18.4, OPPONENT 26.1.

--INDIANAPOLIS is 24-7 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 10.3, OPPONENT 13.3.

--CINCINNATI is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=4.75 yards/play since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 15.9, OPPONENT 9.1.

--CINCINNATI is 41-17 OVER (+22.3 Units) the 1rst half total in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 11.3, OPPONENT 11.9.

--CINCINNATI is 25-6 OVER (+18.4 Units) the 1rst half total off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 12.6, OPPONENT 13.0.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 22 times, while the favorite covered the spread 13 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 21 times, while the underdog won straight up 17 times. 9 games went over the total, while 7 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 47 times, while the favorite covered first half line 35 times. *No EDGE. 12 games went over first half total, while 11 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry, against a poor punt coverage team - allowing more than 12 yards per return, off 1 or more consecutive unders.
(70-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.4%, +29.3 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.3, Opponent 12.3 (Total first half points scored = 22.6)

The situation's record this season is: (11-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (39-18).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (128-83).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (297-191).
__________________________________________________

#107 ST LOUIS @ #108 MIAMI
Line: Dolphins -3, Total: 39

It's next man up in St. Louis. Days after losing veteran starting quarterback Sam Bradford for the season with a torn ACL, Shaun Hill is set to take over the St. Louis Rams as they visit south Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins in the preseason finale for both clubs. The Rams routed Cleveland, 33-14, last week despite losing Bradford early in the contest. Bradford went down on the game's opening drive after throwing an incomplete pass.

He was pressured and hit high by Browns defensive lineman Armonty Bryant. "It wasn't a high impact. ACL injuries, they're all different. This was just kind of a hyperextension and you just had impact come from the outside," Rams coach Jeff Fisher said. "The knee was locked and something has to give, and unfortunately the ACL gave." The former No. 1 overall draft pick missed the Rams' final nine games last season after tearing the ACL in the same knee. He completed 4-of-9 passes for 77 yards before departing. "We lost our starting quarterback, but for Sam personally, it's devastating," Fisher said.

"The news was devastating to him as you can appreciate. Anyone that's gone through that procedure and the rehab understands, and to have it happen again within the calendar year is very, very difficult." Third-string QB Austin Davis saw significant playing time for the Rams and threw for 198 yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yard connection with Chris Givens. Hill, 34, last started a game for Detroit during the 2010 season. "We move forward as a football team. Shaun is our guy," Fisher added. "We brought him here. He's got experience. We've got all the confidence in the world in him."

The Dolphins got into the black this preseason last week when Orleans Darkwa scored on a 1-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter to give Miami a 25-20 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Darkwa finished with 70 rushing yards on six carries. Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill converted 13-of-21 passes for 119 yards and an interception, while Matt Moore went 12-for-19 for 172 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Mike Wallace hauled in six passes for 67 yards for Miami.

The Dolphins and Rams have split four previous preseason games.

•KEY STATS
--ST LOUIS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 23.9, OPPONENT 23.0.

--ST LOUIS is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) after a win by 14 or more points since 1993.
The average score was ST LOUIS 6.6, OPPONENT 15.9.

--ST LOUIS is 25-8 OVER (+16.2 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog versus the 1rst half line since 1993.
The average score was ST LOUIS 10.2, OPPONENT 13.8.

--ST LOUIS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 14.4, OPPONENT 11.7.

--MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 15.8, OPPONENT 20.8.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 20 times, while the favorite covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 16 times. 20 games went under the total, while 13 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 47 times, while the favorite covered first half line 31 times. *No EDGE. 39 games went over first half total, while 24 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (MIAMI) - outgaining opponent by 40 or more passing yards/game on the season, after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record.
(51-21 since 1993.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 9.8 (Total first half points scored = 21.8)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (20-11).
_________________________________________________

#109 NY JETS @ #110 PHILADELPHIA
Line: Eagles -2.5, Total: 44.5

Thursday's final preseason game between the New York Jets and Philadelphia Eagles had a chance to be more compelling than your average exhibition finale. With ex-Eagles starter Michael Vick set to back up Geno Smith with the Jets and former New York starter Mark Sanchez getting ready to serve as Nick Foles' caddy in Philly, things could have gotten interesting.

But, Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly pulled the plug on any of that by saying he would sit both Foles and Sanchez in favor of third-stringer Matt Barkley. Vick, meanwhile, will start for the Jets but don't blink. "Vick will start at quarterback, but don't expect him to play long," Jets coach Rex Ryan said. New York is trying to finish with its head above water in the preseason and build on the solid performances of Smith, who has completed 23-of-33 passes (69.7 percent) for 268 yards with one touchdown, and has also rushed for another score.

After the second-year player's performance in a setback to the Giants last week, in which he completed 9-of-14 passes for 137 yards with one touchdown with a 120.2 passer rating, Smith was officially named the starter for the regular season by Ryan. "He's done everything that we've asked," Ryan said. "It's a big deal," Smith added. "But nothing's going to change for me. I think I did some good things, but I've got work to do."

For the Eagles, Foles led the team to three first-half scores last week in a 31-21 win over Pittsburgh. The Pro-Bowl quarterback enters the 2014 regular season looking to build on last season's breakout performance in which he led the NFL with a 119.2 passer rating, the third-highest single-season mark in NFL history. "I feel like we're improving every week," Foles said of his team. "We have to keep moving forward."

•KEY STATS
--NY JETS are 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games against NFC East division opponents since 1993.
The average score was NY JETS 19.6, OPPONENT 16.3.

--NY JETS are 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was NY JETS 6.6, OPPONENT 13.6.

--NY JETS are 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1993.
The average score was NY JETS 6.9, OPPONENT 9.3.

--PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games against AFC East division opponents since 1993.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 18.2, OPPONENT 21.1.

--PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 27.2, OPPONENT 22.8.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 9 times, while the favorite covered the spread 5 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 8 times, while the underdog won straight up 8 times. 1 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 29 times, while the favorite covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 6 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a terrible passing defense - allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse, after 2 straight games allowing 63% or higher completion pct (20 att).
(26-6 since 1993.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (25-9)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.2
The average score in these games was: Team 23.5, Opponent 15.1 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (46.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
________________________________________________

#111 KANSAS CITY @ #112 GREEN BAY
Line: Packers -3, Total: 42

The Kansas City Chiefs will wrap up their preseason slate by traveling to storied Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (7:00 PM EST) on Thursday evening. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been one of the stars of the preseason, ranking second in the National Football League and leading all tight ends with 185 receiving yards. The second-year player has hauled in 10 receptions with two touchdowns in the practice games and is averaging 18.5 yards per catch.

Last week in a 30-12 loss against Minnesota, Kelce had a team-high 49 yards on four receptions and has led his club in receiving yards in all three preseason contests. "He's going to add another element to the tight end position," said Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith when discussing Kelce. "He'll stretch some defenses and do some things with the ball in his hands. It's exciting to see."

The Packers and star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, look ready for the regular season. Rodgers has completed 20-of-33 passes (60.6 percent) for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 116.6 passer rating in two appearances during the preseason. Last week in a win against Oakland, Rodgers threw for two scores and Pro Bowl running back Eddie Lacy, who was the 2013 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, rushed for one TD. "I think we're ready," said Rodgers. "It's been a good preseason. We've scored points and moved the ball."

This marks the fifth consecutive time that the Chiefs and Packers will close out the preseason against one another. Kansas City is 7-7-1 all-time in practice games versus the Packers.

•KEY STATS
--KANSAS CITY is 14-37 ATS (-26.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 15.3, OPPONENT 20.8.

--KANSAS CITY is 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 16.0, OPPONENT 19.7.

--GREEN BAY is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 5.9, OPPONENT 15.3.

--GREEN BAY is 31-15 OVER (+14.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 11.7, OPPONENT 10.5.

--GREEN BAY is 35-18 OVER (+15.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 11.1, OPPONENT 11.1.

--GREEN BAY is 42-24 OVER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 9.5, OPPONENT 11.5.

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 21 times, while the underdog covered the spread 21 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 25 times, while the underdog won straight up 17 times. 6 games went over the total, while 6 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 47 times, while the favorite covered first half line 45 times. *No EDGE. 14 games went over first half total, while 11 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (KANSAS CITY) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games, off 1 or more consecutive unders.
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
________________________________________________

#113 NEW ENGLAND @ #114 NY GIANTS
Line: Giants -3, Total: 41

What has become a traditional preseason finale renews at MetLife Stadium (7:30 PM EST) on Thursday evening when the New York Giants try to complete a perfect preseason against the New England Patriots. This will be the 10th straight year that the Giants and Patriots have clashed in the final preseason game. The clubs have been frequent exhibition opponents, squaring off in the preseason openers for three straight years from 2001-03 before resuming the series in 2005 when they started to meet in the preseason finale.

The Giants lead the overall preseason rivalry with a 14-9 advantage in 23 previous meetings. For New England this marks the third straight week in which they will do battle against a team the Patriots have faced in a Super Bowl. having played Philadelphia (Super Bowl XXXIX and Carolina (Super Bowl XXXVIII) in the previous two preseason games. The Patriots and Giants met in Super Bowl XLII and Super Bowl XLVI.

New England improved to 2-1 in the preseason last week when Tom Brady threw two touchdown passes to Shane Vereen as New England routed the Panthers, 30-7. Brady completed 17-of-21 passes for 204 yards while playing into the third quarter. He connected with Vereen for scores of 40 and six yards. Second-round draft pick Jimmy Garoppolo, who is competing with Ryan Mallett for the backup quarterback job, hooked up with Taylor McCuller for an 11-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Stephen Gostkowski made three field goals, including a 60-yarder in the waning seconds of the first half.

The Giants, meanwhile, improved to 4-0 in an extended preseason for them when Ryan Nassib threw three touchdown passes and the Big Blue rallied past their co-tenants at MetLife, the New York Jets, 35-24. Nassib went 8-for-12 with 103 yards in relief of Eli Manning, who was under center for the Giants in the first half and completed 12-of-21 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown. Rashad Jennings gained 67 yards on 13 carries for the G-Men while Victor Cruz picked up 61 yards through the air on four receptions.

•KEY STATS
--NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) after scoring 30 points or more last game since 1993.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 14.4, OPPONENT 10.1.

--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1993.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 17.6, OPPONENT 4.3.

--NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total off a home win by 10 points or more since 1993.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 12.9, OPPONENT 10.7.

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 12 times, while the underdog covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 4 times. 17 games went over the total, while 9 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 28 times, while the underdog covered first half line 22 times. *No EDGE. 32 games went over first half total, while 9 games went under first half total. *Edge against first half total =OVER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY GIANTS) - in non-conference games, off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog, good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game.
(47-17 since 1993.) (73.4%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.6, Opponent 10.9 (Total first half points scored = 22.4)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
________________________________________________

#115 WASHINGTON @ #116 TAMPA BAY
Line: Buccaneers -3, Total: 38.5

It might not be a full blown quarterback controversy just yet but Robert Griffin III better start playing a little better for the Washington Redskins, who will conclude their 2014 preseason slate (7:30 PM EST) on Thursday evening when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Some high-profile supporters of backup Kirk Cousins have started to get more vocal inside the Beltway as RG3 continues to struggle in the preseason.

Last Saturday, the Redskins suffered their first defeat in exhibition play, dropping a 23-17 decision to the Baltimore Ravens. The loss was the Redskins' first in preseason play since Aug. 18, 2012 at Chicago, a span of 736 days. Overall Washington has won eight of its last nine practice games. Against the Ravens, Griffin went just 5-of-8 for 20 yards with an interception, while Cousins threw for 122 yards on 14-of-20 efficiency with touchdowns to Santana Moss and Nick Williams.

"It's going to be a decision that (head coach) Jay Gruden is going to have to make," former 'Skins star and current Redskins Broadcast Network analyst Joe Theismann said. "Right now, Robert Griffin III is his quarterback. Now, if there was a quarterback competition, it wouldn't be a competition. Kirk Cousins would be the man I believe he would have to go to, because of the efficiency with which he has run (the offense)."

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, made a slash on the field last week and one off it this week. Tampa Bay built a big halftime lead behind touchdowns from Doug Martin and Mike Evans, and held on from there to beat the Buffalo Bills, 27-14, on Saturday. Josh McCown passed for 112 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the first half as the Buccaneers got their first win in three preseason games. Evans had three catches for 44 yards and a touchdown while Martin had 12 carries for 38 yard. Mike Glennon completed five of his seven passes for 44 yards in the second half.

The Bucs then pulled off a stunning trade with the New England Patriots, acquiring six-time Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins in exchange for tight end Tim Wright and a fourth-round pick in 2015. Mankins, a first-round selection of New England in 2005 who has started 130 games during an impressive nine-year run with the Patriots, fills an obvious need on a Buccaneers' offensive line that lost left guard Carl Nicks to a possible career-ending toe injury.

"We feel very fortunate just to have Logan," said Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht, who formerly worked for the Patriots as the team's director of pro personnel. "He's a very good player. [I'm] a first-hand witness of what he means to the locker room as well. Any time you have five consecutive Pro Bowls, All-Pro player - I mean, [that's] a lot of accolades. But he's a great person. He's going to be great for that room, he's going to be great for this locker room."

•KEY STATS
--WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1993.
The average score was WASHINGTON 15.0, OPPONENT 22.6.

--WASHINGTON is 8-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.1 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was WASHINGTON 7.2, OPPONENT 12.2.

--TAMPA BAY is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 7.6, OPPONENT 18.3.

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 9 times, while the underdog covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 11 times, while the underdog won straight up 6 times. 21 games went under the total, while 10 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 21 times, while the favorite covered first half line 19 times. *No EDGE. 24 games went under first half total, while 22 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (TAMPA BAY) - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, against a good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after gaining 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(36-6 since 1993.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 5*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 11.2 (Total first half points scored = 23.3)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
_______________________________________________

#117 CAROLINA @ #118 PITTSBURGH
Line: Steelers -5, Total: 37.5

The Carolina Panthers will close the preseason (7:30 PM EST) Thursday night in the Steel City against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Panthers still have plenty of questions that need to be answered after last week's 30-7 drubbing at the hands of New England. "We want to try to get a good look at a number of players to help us make the right roster decisions," said Carolina head coach Ron Rivera. "At the same time, we need to find consistency that was lacking against New England."

The Panthers will also have to make those decisions without starting quarterback Cam Newton, who suffered a fractured rib against the Patriots. Newton suffered the injury late in the second quarter when he scrambled and absorbed a hit from Patriots linebacker Jamie Collins. He remained in the game until the third quarter and finished 8-of-12 for 88 yards. Joe Webb spoiled New England's shutout bid with a late TD pass. Rivera remains optimistic that Newton, who also had offseason ankle surgery, will be able to play in the Sept. 7 opener at Tampa Bay.

The Steelers are also dealing with some issues after a 31-21 setback at Philadelphia. Ben Roethlisberger played into the third quarter against the Eagles and finished the game 15- for-24 for 157 yards, one touchdown and one interception for the Steelers, who are 1-2 on the preseason. A day after being pulled over for marijuana possession the Pittsburgh running back tandem of Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount played and combined for 16 carries and 55 yards, along with four catches for 17 yards.

The two ball carriers and a female friend were arrested after Ross Township Police smelled the scent of marijuana coming from a black Camaro that Bell was driving. The three jointly admitted to possessing the marijuana and Bell is facing charges of possessing and driving under the influence, while Blount has to deal with those same possession charges. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin ultimately decided against any suspension, passing potential punishment off to the league while leaning on the logic that missing a preseason game would be a "reward" to players like Bell and Blount, who aren't fighting for a roster spot.

The Steelers have been Carolina's most common preseason opponent. Pittsburgh leads the preseason series 10-5.

•KEY STATS
--CAROLINA is 8-23 against the 1rst half line (-17.3 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1993.
The average score was CAROLINA 8.1, OPPONENT 12.5.

--PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1993.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.8, OPPONENT 14.8.

--PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 16.1, OPPONENT 22.6.

--PITTSBURGH is 12-1 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1993.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.4, OPPONENT 6.3.

--PITTSBURGH is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1993.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 16.0, OPPONENT 8.7.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 20 times, while the favorite covered the spread 19 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 25 times, while the underdog won straight up 14 times. 29 games went under the total, while 27 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 41 times, while the underdog covered first half line 37 times. *No EDGE. 60 games went over first half total, while 25 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CAROLINA) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game).
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#119 MINNESOTA @ #120 TENNESSEE
Line: Titians -2, Total: 41.5

The Minnesota Vikings will try to complete a perfect preseason under first-year head coach Mike Zimmer when they visit Music City to take on the Tennessee Titans. The Vikings kept their unbeaten record alive last week with a convincing 30-12 road victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. They are one of four undefeated teams entering the final week of the preseason. In the win, quarterback Matt Cassel passed for 152 yards, including a 53-yard touchdown to Cordarrelle Patterson.

Rookie backup Teddy Bridgewater added a pair of touchdown passes to tight end Allen Reisner. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense intercepted the Chiefs three times. Zimmer then told his team Monday that the veteran Cassel will be their starting quarterback when they take the field for the season opener on Sept. 7 at St. Louis. "We will hold the quarterback position to the expectation that we hold all positions. If you perform, you'll play," said Zimmer.

Cassel, who began the 2013 season behind Christian Ponder with the Vikings, completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 1,807 yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions in nine games (six starts) last season. The USC product completed 26-of-39 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns, one interception and a 103.3 rating in the preseason. Bridgewater, the No. 32 overall pick from Louisville, connected on 26-of-40 passes for 266 yards with four touchdowns during the preseason. "I told Teddy that it was not anything he did or didn't do," said Zimmer.

The Titans were on the road last week for the second consecutive preseason game and, after falling behind by two touchdowns, they scored 21 unanswered points to defeat the Atlanta Falcons, 24-17, at the Georgia Dome. Bishop Sankey's three-yard touchdown run and two-point conversion provided the winning margin with less than six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Titans quarterback Jake Locker played with the rest of the starters into the second half. The fourth-year signal caller was 12-of-17 for 188 yards, a touchdown and a passer rating of 126.6. His 63-yard touchdown pass to receiver Nate Washington sparked the team's comeback.

The Vikings and Titans have played six times during the preseason with Minnesota holding a 5-1 series lead.

•KEY STATS
--MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was MINNESOTA 25.7, OPPONENT 18.9.

--TENNESSEE is 33-13 OVER (+18.7 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was TENNESSEE 11.7, OPPONENT 9.6.

--TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off a upset win as an underdog since 1993.
The average score was TENNESSEE 12.7, OPPONENT 10.0.

--TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1993.
The average score was TENNESSEE 12.7, OPPONENT 10.0.

--TENNESSEE is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total off a road win sin
The average score was TENNESSEE 12.5, OPPONENT 9.7.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 11 times, while the favorite covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 10 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 8 times. 8 games went over the total, while 4 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 20 times, while the underdog covered first half line 18 times. *No EDGE. 13 games went over first half total, while 4 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game.
(36-15 since 1993.) (70.6%, +19.5 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.2, Opponent 10.8 (Total first half points scored = 22)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
________________________________________________

#121 SAN FRANCISCO @ #122 HOUSTON
Line: Texans -3, Total: 38.5

The Houston Texans will close out the preseason against the San Francisco 49ers (8:00 PM EST) Thursday at NRG Stadium. The Texans are coming off an 18-17 come-from-behind win at Denver last Saturday. Rookie quarterback Tom Savage led Houston on its game-winning drive, hitting tight end Ryan Griffin for a 31-yard touchdown with 59 seconds remaining and then connecting with receiver Travis Labhart on the ensuing 2- point conversion attempt.

Starting signal caller Ryan Fitzpatrick went 10-for-17 for 80 yards and Jonathan Grimes scored a rushing touchdown in the win. The Texans' defense also continued its solid second-half play against Denver, holding its opponent scoreless for the second consecutive game. Houston hasn't allowed any points in the third quarter and has allowed just 12 points in the second half through three preseason games.

The 49ers, meanwhile, defeated San Diego, 21-7, on Sunday for their first win of the preseason. Vance McDonald caught a 6-yard touchdown pass from backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert with 46 seconds remaining in the first half for what turned out to be the game-winning score. Starting signal caller Colin Kaepernick was 6-of-12 for 59 yards while rookie second-round selection Carlos Hyde carried the ball six times for 38 yards. McDonald finished with three receptions for 29 yards and the touchdown for the 49ers.

Thursday's game will be just the third preseason meeting between the two teams. Houston defeated San Francisco 30-7 in the 2011 preseason and 20-9 in the 2012 preseason.

•KEY STAT
--SAN FRANCISCO is 7-18 against the 1rst half line (-12.8 Units) off a home win since 1993.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 8.2, OPPONENT 12.9.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 24 times, while the favorite covered the spread 17 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 26 times, while the underdog won straight up 18 times. 30 games went under the total, while 19 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 46 times, while the favorite covered first half line 39 times. *No EDGE. 40 games went under first half total, while 35 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (SAN FRANCISCO) - terrible offensive team (<=265 YPG) against a team with a terrible defense (>=370 YPG), off 1 or more consecutive unders, poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game.
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
________________________________________________

#123 CHICAGO @ #124 CLEVELAND
Line: Browns -5, Total: 42

With the quarterback decision in the rear-view mirror for now, the Cleveland Browns and new coach Mike Pettine will be aiming to avoid a winless preseason when they square off with the Chicago Bears at First-Energy Stadium. St. Louis routed Cleveland, 33-14, last week despite losing quarterback Sam Bradford to a torn ACL in his left knee. Bradford went down on the game's opening drive after throwing an incomplete pass. He was pressured and hit high by Browns defensive lineman Armonty Bryant.

The former No. 1 overall draft pick missed the Rams' final nine games last season after tearing the ACL in the same knee. Named the Browns' starting quarterback over rookie Johnny Manziel to begin the season, Brian Hoyer had only 84 yards passing while playing into the third quarter. Hoyer did throw a touchdown pass to Andrew Hawkins, but he was also intercepted once and lost a fumble on a sack. Manziel passed for 85 yards and ran for a touchdown, and was sacked by rookie defensive end Michael Sam.

The Bears, meanwhile, received a wake-up call from the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who trounced Chicago, 34-6, in the Pacific Northwest last week. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks were in midseason form as the signal-caller threw two touchdown passes and ran for another in leading Seattle to points on all five of his drives in the first half. The third-year pro completed 15- of-20 passes for 202 yards and connected with Jermaine Kearse and backup running back Christine Michael for scores.

Jay Cutler and Chicago's starters were decidedly less impressive in their only half of action. Cutler tossed for 157 yards on 12-of-20 passes, while Matt Forte was limited to 17 yards on three carries. The Bears had a touchdown reversed and another nullified by a Brandon Marshall offensive pass interference penalty late in the second quarter.

This contest marks the 11th straight year that Cleveland and Chicago will face off during the preseason finale. During that span, the series is even at 5-5, but the Browns hold an 18-11 all-time edge in the preseason.

•KEY STATS
--CHICAGO is 15-5 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 17.4, OPPONENT 24.8.

--CHICAGO is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a losing record since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 13.1, OPPONENT 12.0.

--CHICAGO is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 10.3, OPPONENT 13.4.

--CHICAGO is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 12.6, OPPONENT 13.2.

--CLEVELAND is 26-12 OVER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC North division opponents since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 11.8, OPPONENT 11.2.

--CLEVELAND is 15-2 OVER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 12.3, OPPONENT 11.2.

--CLEVELAND is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 12.4, OPPONENT 12.4.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 16 times, while the favorite covered the spread 5 times. *EDGE against the spread =CHICAGO. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 11 times, while the underdog won straight up 10 times. 11 games went over the total, while 10 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 20 times, while the favorite covered first half line 19 times. *No EDGE. 17 games went over first half total, while 6 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CHICAGO) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
________________________________________________

#125 BALTIMORE @ #126 NEW ORLEANS
Line: Saints -3, Total: 43.5

A pair of Super Bowl contenders hoping to finish off perfect preseason’s meet in the Bayou (8:00 PM EST) on Thursday evening when the New Orleans Saints host the Baltimore Ravens. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has completed 29-of-45 passes for 345 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 102.5 passer rating in three preseason games under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, the former head coach in Houston.

In last week's win over Washington, Flacco connected on 16-of-23 passes for 180 yards with one touchdown to the newly acquired Steve Smith, a 24- yarder. "I'm ready," said Flacco about the start of the regular season. "Everybody is ready for real live games. Get out there and go." Flacco's counterpart with the Saints, Drew Brees, has struggled with an oblique strain in August but saw his first action last week and the Pro Bowl quarterback was sharp.

He completed 9-of-15 passes for 128 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 127.2 passer rating as New Orleans improved to 3-0 with a 23-17 win in Indianapolis. "I feel like it was a progression throughout the week, just getting the feel and timing back," said Brees, who led two touchdown drives in his three series on the field. "I don't think I'm 100 percent yet, but I feel like the tempo and rhythm and those things are coming back."

•KEY STATS
--BALTIMORE is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in road games after a win by 6 or less points since 1993.
The average score was BALTIMORE 17.0, OPPONENT 8.6.

--NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 25.2, OPPONENT 20.2.

--NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 20.9, OPPONENT 17.9.

--NEW ORLEANS is 35-17 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a non-conference game since 1993.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 10.6, OPPONENT 11.4.

--NEW ORLEANS is 31-16 OVER (+13.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1993.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 10.0, OPPONENT 11.7.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 12 times, while the favorite covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 13 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 5 games went under the total, while 3 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 27 times, while the underdog covered first half line 27 times. *No EDGE. 10 games went over first half total, while 2 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (NEW ORLEANS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(30-9 since 1993.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.4, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 22.8)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
________________________________________________

#127 DENVER @ #128 DALLAS
Line: Broncos -2.5, Total: 43.5

The Dallas Cowboys will try to avoid a winless preseason when they host the reigning AFC Champion Denver Broncos (8:00 PM EST) on Thursday night. The Broncos are coming off a tough week, losing for the first time in exhibition play, a setback exacerbated by the latest concussion to star slot receiver Wes Welker, and finding out that star kicker Matt Prater will be suspended for the first month of the season for violating the NFL's substance- abuse policy.

Houston rookie Tom Savage's 31-yard touchdown pass to Ryan Griffin in the closing minute lifted the Texans to an 18-17 win over Denver last week, but the far bigger story stemming from the game was Welker, who was injured after taking a hit from Houston defensive back D.J. Swearinger late in the second quarter. It was his third concussion in the past 10 months. No timetable has been set for Welker's return and Broncos coach John Fox said the team would take it one day at a time.

"Our first priority is his safety and his well-being," Fox said earlier this week. "He's doing good and going through the protocol now, and he'll be out there when he's deemed healthy." Prater, meanwhile, was penalized for his second DUI issue and will not be eligible to return to the Broncos' active roster until Oct. 6, following the team's game against the Arizona Cardinals a day earlier. "I am definitely going to make some changes in my life: not drink at all or risk doing anything stupid like that," said Prater before Monday's practice.

"I need to keep myself out of certain situations where people are drinking." To replace Prater in the short-term Denver acquired former Temple University kicker Brandon McManus from the New York Giants in exchange for a conditional seventh-round pick in the 2015 draft. McManus was set to be released by the Giants on Tuesday. He connected on both of his field goal attempts and recorded touchbacks on 10-of-11 kickoffs during the preseason with New York.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 0-3 in exhibition play after falling to the Miami Dolphins, 25-20, in south Florida last week. Tony Romo finished 10-for-18 for 87 yards and was sacked three times in the loss, while his backup Brandon Weeden was 5-of-9 for 77 yards and a TD LaRon Byrd. The preseason series between the Cowboys and the Broncos is tied at seven games apiece.

•KEY STATS
--DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 27.3, OPPONENT 15.8.

--DENVER is 17-2 ATS (+14.8 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 24.9, OPPONENT 12.4.

--DENVER is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 24.1, OPPONENT 11.3.

--DENVER is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 8.9, OPPONENT 13.9.

--DALLAS is 12-30 ATS (-21.0 Units) off 1 or more straight overs since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 14.6, OPPONENT 18.3.

--DALLAS is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 11.7, OPPONENT 10.9.

--DALLAS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 12.8, OPPONENT 12.7.

--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion pct. of 61% or worse since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 15.9, OPPONENT 10.0.

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 11 times, while the underdog covered the spread 3 times. *EDGE against the spread =DENVER. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 2 times. 1 games went over the total, while 1 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 15 times, while the underdog covered first half line 3 times. *EDGE against first half line =DENVER. 3 games went over first half total, while 1 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams against the 1rst half total (DALLAS) - with a poor defense - allowing 335 or more total yards/game, after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game.
(32-9 since 1993.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.8, Opponent 9.8 (Total first half points scored = 22.7)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
________________________________________________

#129 SEATTLE @ #130 OAKLAND
Line: Seahawks -5, Total: 38.5

The Seattle Seahawks are gearing up for a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions and will travel to Oakland for their final dress rehearsal in the 2014 preseason. Over the past two games, the Seahawks first-team offense, led by third-year quarterback Russell Wilson, has been nearly unstoppable. A week after racking up 260 yards and 24 points in the first half against San Diego, Seattle gained 250 yards and scored 31 points last week versus Chicago.

The Seahawks scored touchdowns on their first four possessions against the Bears and Wilson has a string of nine consecutive scoring drives over the past two games. "The entire offensive group is just executing at a good clip right now," said Seattle head coach Pete Carroll. "Russell is really committed to what is happening. We're hitting a pretty good clip right now. Hopefully we can keep it going."

Things haven't gone as smoothly for the Raiders, who made significant personnel changes in the offseason. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew, one of those additions, had a 40-yard touchdown run last week, and wide receiver Brice Butler added two touchdown receptions in a loss in Green Bay last week. "I think we're ready to take a jump," veteran defensive back Charles Woodson said of his team. "I feel really good about what we did (in Week 3). And I'm very confident that we'll get better."

Seattle owns a significant 9-3 edge in its previous preseason bouts against the Raiders.

•KEY STATS
--SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.1, OPPONENT 9.5.

--SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.6, OPPONENT 10.4.

--SEATTLE is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 22.8, OPPONENT 16.2.

--SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a win by 21 or more points since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.4, OPPONENT 15.3.

--SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.1, OPPONENT 17.1.

--OAKLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1993.
The average score was OAKLAND 16.6, OPPONENT 19.9.

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 14 times, while the underdog covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 24 games went under the total, while 23 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 21 times, while the underdog covered first half line 10 times. *No EDGE. 43 games went over first half total, while 24 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Any team (SEATTLE) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games, in non-conference games, off 2 consecutive home wins.
(32-11 since 1993.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (26-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.3
The average score in these games was: Team 20.3, Opponent 17.4 (Average point differential = +3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (41.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-9).
________________________________________________

#131 ARIZONA @ #132 SAN DIEGO
Line: Chargers -3, Total: 39

The Arizona Cardinals travel to San Diego this week to face the Chargers in a preseason finale for both clubs that should be even more vanilla than most. That's because the two teams will meet again 11 days later when the Chargers visit Arizona for a Monday Night matchup in Week #1 of the regular season. Last week, the Cardinals dropped a 19-13 decision to the Cincinnati Bengals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Arizona's defense did not allow a touchdown in the game and rookie WR John Brown provided the biggest offensive highlight with a diving 30-yard TD reception late in the third quarter,

Cardinals backup quarterback Drew Stanton continued his solid preseason run, completing 10-of-13 passes for 108 yards and a TD in leading Arizona to 10 points in his three second-half series. Stanton has a 125.0 passer rating in the preseason and has thrown a TD in all three games. The Cards' defense was led by the team's 2014 first-round pick, safety Deone Bucannon, who was credited with a game-high seven tackles as Arizona fell to 1-2 in practice action.

San Diego is also 1-2 in the preseason, coming off a 21-7 loss on Sunday to the 49ers in San Francisco. Quarterback Philip Rivers only played the first quarter in that one and was very sharp, hitting 9-of-10 passes for 85 yards and a TD to star tight end Antonio Gates. This contest marks the first time since 2003 that the Cardinals will be visiting San Diego for preseason play. When the two teams rematch in Week 1, it will mark the Chargers first-ever regular season visit to University of Phoenix Stadium.

•KEY STATS
--SAN DIEGO is 25-8 OVER (+16.2 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 19.4, OPPONENT 23.2.

--SAN DIEGO is 38-17 OVER (+19.3 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 10.3, OPPONENT 11.1.

--SAN DIEGO is 24-9 OVER (+14.1 Units) the 1rst half total off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 10.4, OPPONENT 12.5.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 19 times, while the favorite covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 15 times. 18 games went under the total, while 17 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 39 times, while the favorite covered first half line 30 times. *No EDGE. 37 games went over first half total, while 22 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (ARIZONA) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(33-9 since 1993.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.8, Opponent 11.3 (Total first half points scored = 22.1)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Atlanta at NY Mets

The Mets look to bounce back from last night's 3-2 loss as they close out the series against a Braves team that is 2-8 in its last 10 games after allowing 2 runs or less in the previous game. New York is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 28 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Arrieta) 16.332; Cincinnati (Axelrod) 14.621 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120); Under

Game 903-904: Colorado at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Lyles) 15.854; San Francisco (Petit) 14.616 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-190); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+165); Under

Game 905-906: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.032; NY Mets (Niese) 16.199 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Over

Game 907-908: NY Yankees at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.687; Detroit (Lobstein) 15.813 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Under

Game 909-910: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.276; Baltimore (Norris) 15.304 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-105); Over

Game 911-912: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Milone) 14.561; Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.785 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-155); Over

Game 913-914: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carrasco) 15.571; White Sox (Danks) 14.027 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-150); Over

Game 915-916: Texas at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 13.804; Houston (McHugh) 15.442 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Houston (-150); 8 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-150); Over

Game 917-918: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 14.843; LA Angels (Wilson) 15.518 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-120); Over

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Today's NFL Picks

Carolina at Pittsburgh

The Steelers wrap up their preseason at home against a Carolina team that lost at New England (30-7) last week. Pittsburgh is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL preseason picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 28 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (8/26)

Game 101-102: Atlanta at Jacksonville (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.478; Jacksonville 118.770 Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1 1/2; 35 Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 4; 39 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4); Under

Game 103-104: Detroit at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 116.771; Buffalo 123.728 Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 7; 46 Vegas Line: Buffalo by 4 1/2; 41 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-4 1/2); Over

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 121.526; Cincinnati 120.363 Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 38 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 42 Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3); Under

Game 107-108: St. Louis at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 117.113; Miami 122.084 Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 44 Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 39 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3); Over

Game 109-110: NY Jets at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 117.967; Philadelphia 123.029 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 5; 48 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2); Over

Game 111-112: Kansas City at Green Bay (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 1120.586; Green Bay 120.458 Dunkel Line: Even; 36 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 42 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Under

Game 113-114: New England at NY Giants (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 121.281; NY Giants 126.654 Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 5 1/2; 38 Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 41 Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3 1/2); Under

Game 115-116: Washington at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.972; Tampa Bay 121.924 Dunkel Line: Washington by 5; 35 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 39 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Under

Game 117-118: Carolina at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 115.199; Pittsburgh 123.116 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 34 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 38 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Under

Game 119-120:Minnesota at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 124.531; Tennessee 123.442 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 38 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 42 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2); Under

Game 121-122: San Francisco at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 121.486; Houston 122.352 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 43 Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 39 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Over

Game 123-124: Chicago at Cleveland (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 116.434; Cleveland 123.300 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7; 39 Vegas Line: Cleveland by 5; 42 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5); Under

Game 125-126: Baltimore at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 123.717; New Orleans 129.012 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over

Game 127-128: Denver at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.958; Dallas 122.920 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 37 Vegas Line: Denver by 2 1/2; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2 1/2); Under

Game 129-130: Seattle at Oakland (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.320; Oakland 124.286 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 33 Vegas Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 38 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+5 1/2); Under

Game 131-132: Arizona at San Diego (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 118.631; San Diego 123.715 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 45 Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 39 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Thursday

Seahawks -3

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'College Football Is Back'

Things kicks off Thursday with South Carolina Gamecocks in a season lidlifter against Johnny Football-less Texas A&M. Gamecocks knocking off Badgers in the Capital One Bowl ended the 2013 campaign 11-2 (7-6 ATS) overall behind 34.1 PPG on 452.3 YPG with the defense surrendering 20.3 PPG on 350.0 YPG. Aggies off a 9-4 (5-8 ATS) season including a win vs Duke in the Chick-fil-A Bowl racked up 44.2 PPG on 538.3 YPG. At the defensive end, Aggies gave up 32.2 PPG on 475.8 YPG and surrendered an SEC-worst 222.3 rushing yards/game. Gamecocks are the clear favorite in this game (-10.5) but, the number shouldn’t dissuade anyone from taking Spurrier's troops. Sports handicappers familiar with early-season efforts by Gamecocks over the past few years know the squad has won fourteen consecutive season opener's (7-7 ATS) along with seven straight in front of the home crowd posting a 5-2 ATS mark against the betting line. What should also set off a trigger in the minds of those with a penchant for sports gaming, Gamecocks' running the table at home in 2013 going 7-0 (4-3 ATS) are now 18-0 (12-6 ATS) at Williams-Brice Stadium. Best of luck this season but above all enjoy the games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo makes a Met bet

It wasn’t quite a laugher but Smyly did the job for the Rays and Hondo Wednesday night, shutting down the Orioles to reduce the accounts payable to 1,600 swans.

Thursday night: If everything is relative, then Mr. Aitch feels he should back Niese — 10 units on the Metamucils to post a major victory over Minor.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Boise State vs. Ole Miss Point Spread and Pick
By: Larry Hartstein

Coming off its worst season in 15 years, Boise State travels across the country to face No. 18 Ole Miss in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game on Thursday in Atlanta. (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Broncos lost five games – and their mystique – last year and are rebuilding under new coach Bryan Harsin.

Boise State has not been this big of an underdog since visiting Oregon on Sept. 20, 2008. The Broncos also were getting 10 points in that game; they won outright 37-32.

The Line: Ole Miss -10.5, Total: 53.5

Line movement: The spread has been back and forth between 10 and 10.5 for the most part, although some books have flashed 9.5. The total has fallen a full 4 points from CG Technology's initial release of 57.5. You can find 53s and 54s around Vegas, too.

Trends that matter: The Rebels are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site games. They’re playing this one in SEC country at the Georgia Dome, a long trek for Boise State.

It’s a fast track in Atlanta. The OVER is 9-3 in Ole Miss’ last 12 games on Fieldturf.

Quarterback differential: The Rebels own the edge at quarterback, where Bo Wallace enters his third season as the starter. Boise State’s Grant Hedrick took over at midseason last year and struggled against the toughest opponents.

Wallace accounted for three touchdowns in the Music City Bowl win over Georgia Tech and says his arm finally feels normal following his January 2013 shoulder surgery.

"I have a lot more confidence this year," Wallace told the Associated Press . "I had a great camp. Last year I didn't have a good camp at all. It took me two or three weeks just to get back in the groove. But from day one (this year), I've felt good and I still feel good."

Same records, but…. Both teams went 8-5 SU last year, but the Rebels played a much tougher schedule. Ole Miss lost by three to Texas A&M, by eight at Auburn and in overtime at Mississippi State.

The Broncos lost both their games against BCS conference opponents, falling by a combined 76-29 to Washington and Oregon State.

Injuries that matter: Ole Miss starting NT Isaac Gross, who’s been dealing with a neck strain, practiced Sunday and reported no soreness Monday, per USA Today. He’s expected to play. Gross has 19 tackles for loss in 26 career games.

The Linemakers’ lean: The line here is inflated because we have an SEC team playing one from the Mountain West, plus the latter comes in with a new coach. According to our power ratings, Ole Miss should be about a 6-point favorite on a neutral field, which is where this game will be contested. Boise State is traditionally very comfortable traveling, and while Bryan Harsin may be new to the sidelines, he still gets to play with Chris Petersen’s talent. We’re on the dog here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carlo Campanella

NFLX Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders

7* Seattle Seahawks

Seattle knows they have a target on their backs after winning the Super Bowl and they've lived up to the challenge by rolling through their competition during Preseason play. We wagered on them during Week #2 and Week #3 this exhibition season and cashed both times, as they easily beat the Chargers, 41-14, and followed that victory up with a 28 point victory over Chicago, 34-6, last Friday. Seattle heads to Oakland for their final Preseason game this Thursday knowing that they're 8-0 ATS in their final exhibition game of the season, including 4-0 ATS in their final game behind Head Coach Pete Carroll. Seahawks roll into the Regular season with a third straight exhibition victory.

7* Play On Seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sam Martin

Tulane at Tulsa 8:00PM

5* Play on Tulsa

Since joining Vegas Experts five years ago, we've backed Tulsa against the spread against Tulane every season in this annual rivalry and we suffered our first loss last season. That 14-7 outright loss was not only the first time Tulsa lost outright in the previous nine years, but also the first time they failed to cover the spread in this rivalry game.

Tulsa hadn't just been beating Tulane, they were blowing them out. The previous eight games saw Tulsa win by margins of 35, 28, 28, 24, 49, 24, 35, and 24 points. It's no wonder they are against listed as the favorite here despite coming off a three-win season a year ago and breaking that streak, however, given the series history there is still value backing the side and ALMOST always wins big! 5* Play on Tulsa.