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UFC 177 Odds and Pick
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews
LAS VEGAS -- UFC 177 comes to us Saturday night from Sacramento, with a bantamweight title fight between champion T.J. Dillashaw and No. 1 contender Renan Barao. It’s an immediate rematch of a fight back in May, when Dillashaw defeated then-champ Barao.
The most memorable thing about that fight – besides a +550 underdog winning the belt – was the total domination that Dillashaw displayed that evening. He won every round and finally finished Barao in the fifth. Dillashaw wasn't given much of a chance going into that fight against the highly-regarded Barao.
Dillashaw (10-2), who hails from the Alpha Male training center led by Urijah Faber, probably wasn't even regarded as the best bantamweight in his own gym – that spot was maintained by Faber for years – but that didn't stop him from proving critics and oddsmakers wrong that evening.
Since this is an immediate rematch, rather than look at common opponents or past records, it makes more sense to analyze what we learned from the first fight and how that plays into Saturday's rematch.
The champion Dillashaw will surely be full of confidence, knowing he was able to beat Barao easily in their first encounter, and he'll probably use similar aggressive tactics here. Barao (32-2), on the other hand, needs to come out fast – something he’s been able to do throughout his career – and take away some of that confidence from T.J.
The betting line is the story ahead of Saturday night. Dillashaw, a +550 underdog just three months ago, is now a -150 favorite, with Barao getting about +130 odds as the underdog. Without making an outright prediction, the odds adjustment is way too drastic. Fighters, like football teams, have off nights, while others have nights where they perform way above their normal skill set.
Barao just didn't have it that night in May and may have been a little over confident. After all, he defeated Faber, the leader of Dillashaw's training camp, twice, finishing him in the first round of their last meeting earlier this year.
Expect the real Renan Barao to show up on Saturday night and give a performance more becoming of one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.
Dillashaw should get a big lift from the fans in his camp's hometown, but that doesn't always translate into good performances – sometimes hometown fighters get away from their gameplans and go for KOs, rather than just try to win rounds.
This should be a great fight, as these lower-weight affairs are typically fast-paced where rounds can be difficult to score. But the value of getting a great fighter like Renan Barao at plus-money can’t be ignored.
The lean here is towards Barao and the +130 odds to get his title back Saturday night. -
Prediction Machine Totals
Sat Aug. 30th Totals
Home Rot Matchup Line Pick Pick%
204 WISC vs. LSU 50 Over 61.3
188 WESTMI @ PURDUE 53.5 Under 61.2
164 TROY @ UAB 66 Over 60.3
194 SOUMIS @ MISSST 56 Under 60.3
166 CAL @ NW 60.5 Over 58.7
170 FLAATL @ NEB 51 Under 58.5
180 ARK @ AUBURN 57.5 Over 58
162 APP @ MICH 54 Under 57.8
202 UTEP @ NM 67 Over 56.2
182 CLEM @ UGA 57.5 Over 56.1
168 GASO @ NCSU 53.5 Over 56
178 WVU vs. ALA 55.5 Over 56
190 IDAHO @ FLA 51 Over 55.9
174 MARSH @ MIA-O 59 Under 55.7
196 WASH @ HAWAII 58.5 Over 55.1
156 PSU vs. UCF 48 Over 54.9Comment
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Indian Cowboy
7 unit Florida St -17.5
3 unit No Texas +25.5
3 unit LSU Over 50.5Comment
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Strike Point Sports
5 unit Nebraska (-21)
7 unit Louisville (-3.5)
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Norm Hitzges
Sat
double play
Georgia
single play
Marshall
Virginia
Alabama
Fresno State
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Pointwise Phones
4* Alabama
4* Georgia
3* Florida St.
3* Georgia Southern
2* HawaiiComment
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Allen Eastman
NCAAF PICKS
Central Florida (-2) over Penn State 4* PLAY
'Under' 55.5 Ohio State vs. Navy 2* PLAY
Florida State (-17.5) over Oklahoma State 3* PLAY
North Texas (+25.5) over Texas 4* PLAYComment
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Vegas Runner
FLA Atlantic +22 NFAC 400.00Comment
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Doc's Sports
4 Unit Play. #167/#165 Take Georgia Southern Eagles +21 over North Carolina State Wolfpack (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN 3) Some of us remember the Georgia Southern victory over Florida last year in the swamp where two players from the same team were blocking each other. But the fact remains that NC State is not any good (much worse than Florida) and do not warrant to be favored by this many points against anybody in FBS. I like using Georgia Southern as a big underdog play since they shorten the game with a strong running attack. NC State finished 2013 losing 8 straight games (0-7-1 ATS), and they are just not very good. They will win this game, but I see it only by 14-17 points. Georgia Southern has covered 4 straight road games. FAU has been an outstanding ATS play of late but a new coach and a new system will bring that to an end this afternoon.
4 Unit Play. #170/#198 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers -22 over Florida Atlantic Owls (Saturday 3:30 pm BTN) Nebraska was a big favorite last year at home and struggled to beat Wyoming giving up a ton of yards to QB Brett Smith and company. But FAU is no Wyoming and Coach Bo Pelini was extra incentive for this game since the Owls used to be coached by his brother Carl. Nebraska has a cupcake on deck in McNeese State and thus I do not expect them to hold back anything in this game. The Owls will not be able to stop Ameer Abdullah and Coach Bo Pelini seems to have a different and more laid back attitude this season.
4 Unit Play. #179/#179 Take Arkansas Razorbacks +12.5 (first half line) over Auburn Tigers (Saturday 4 pm SEC Network) We are playing Arkansas to cover the spread in the first half. QB Nick Marshall will not start in this game for an off-field incident. If you cannot make a first half bet just ignore this selection. Do not play it for the whole game.
5 Unit Play. #188/#160 Take Purdue Boilermakers -10.5 over Western Michigan Broncos (Saturday 12 pm ESPN U) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEKEND. I am expecting big things from Purdue this year as Coach Darrell Hazell is in his second year of this major rebuilding project. Purdue has a ton of experience on both sides of the football, and this is an important game since it will be one of the few games they are favored to win. Actually Purdue should win three of their four nonconference games, but this is a must-win if they are going to show any kind of improvement in 2014. Purdue is a perfect 3-0 in this series, and Western Michigan was terrible last year, matching Purdue's 1-11 record. The Broncos have lost 19 straight road openers, and I feel that Purdue will want to make a statement in this game to rally the fan base for 2014. Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against Big Ten teams.
4 Unit Play. #190 Take Florida Gators -36 over Idaho Vandals (Saturday 7 pm ESPN U) Boy, the oddsmakers are begging you to take Idaho in this game, but we will not fall into this trap. How can unranked Florida team with a lame duck head coach be this big of a favorite? Couple of factors make this a selection for the chalk. The first is Jeff Driskel is back at quarterback for the Gators, and he gives with stability, which they did not have last year. They also return a solid defense that kept them in many games last year despite a terrible offense that could not move the football on a consistent basis. The other trend is that Idaho stinks, going 1-11 last season, and five times they lost games by today's posted number. Florida will go all out to run up the score to get the faithful behind Will Muschamp. Florida is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the Sun Belt.Comment
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Vegas Sports Informer
5*-over-55-bama-w.virginia
2*-fresno.st+22
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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day
New York Yankees -114 over Toronto Blue Jays
Rest of the Plays
New York Mets -154 over Philadelphia Phillies
Houston Astros -130 over Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks -141 over Colorado RockiesComment
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Football Crusher
Play of the Day
Clemson +7.5 over Georgia
Rest of the Plays
Arkansas +18.5 over Auburn
FIU +3 over Bethune Cookman
Kent State -140 over OhioComment
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Soccer Crusher
Newells Old Boys + Estudiantes LP UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
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Totals 4 You NCAA Selections for Late Saturday, August 30th
August's College Football Inter-Conference Total of the Month!!!!!
Florida State/Oklahoma State under 64 1/2
Late NCAA Best Bets
Idaho/Florida over 50 1/2
Fresno State/USC under 58
Southern Mississippi/Mississippi State under 57 1/2
LSU/Wisconsin over 49 1/2Comment
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