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SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Philadephia @ ATLANTA
Phily (1st 5 innings) +120 over ATLANTA
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)
The Braves’ offense has been hot and cold for two months running and cannot be trusted in this price range against Cole Hamels. At home against the Marlins the past two games, Atlanta scored 1 run and that includes being shut out by Jared Cosart over seven innings. Hamels has gone 17 consecutive starts where he has allowed three earned runs or less. In two starts versus Atlanta this season, he has allowed just one earned run in 14 innings, throwing a true gem both times. Hamels has been outstanding on the road all season, where he owns a 1.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 12 starts. Last time out, he was pulled after just 84 pitches, so he should be fresh coming into this start. He was pulled because he went seven full in those 84 pitches. Cole Hamels is one of the top five pitchers in the game but for whatever reason, he’s been undervalued practically the entire year. We see another example of that here and it’s not like the Phillies can’t win a game either. Philly has won 7 of its past 10, which includes a three-game sweep over Washington prior to facing the Mets this past weekend.
Julio Teheran has won three straight while posting a 1.47 ERA over that span. Don’t buy it. Those three wins came against three struggling teams in Cincinnati, the Mets and Oakland. Truth is, Teheran’s skills have been declining for 7 straight weeks. Over that span, covering his last 10 starts, he has an xERA of 4.77. Teheran’s groundball/fly-ball split on the season was pedestrian to begin with at 35%/45% but over his last 10 it’s turned ugly at 31%/55%. We’re also seeing a significant dip in strikeouts, where Teheran has whiffed just 19 over his past 32 innings. Yesterday we talked about Scott Kazmir running on fumes and right on cue, Kazmir didn’t make it out of the second inning yesterday. We’re seeing a lot of the same characteristics or skills decline in Teheran as we saw in Kazmir and while we’re not suggesting he’ll get knocked out in the second, we are suggesting that he’s way overpriced, that he's running on fumes and that he cannot be this big a favorite over Hamels. Let’s take the pens out of the equation here.
N.Y. Mets @ MIAMI
N.Y. Mets +109 over MIAMI
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)
Henderson Alvarez’s surface stats are one of the most misleading among all starting pitchers. Alvarez is 10-6 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. How can that be? Here’s a guy that has struck out just 97 batters in 157 innings. Indeed he has outstanding control but the fact that he doesn’t miss many bats reveals that all those balls in play are being hit right at people. Alvarez’s 7% swing and miss rate support his low strikeout total and it should be noted that in his last start his swing and miss rate was 4%. In 25 starts, he has just 14 pure quality starts so it’s obvious he’s at the mercy of his defense. Don’t get us wrong, Alvarez does have a strong groundball tilt and outstanding control so he’s usually able to keep his teams in games and win more games than he loses. However, he’s not as good as his surface stats suggest, which makes him an overvalued commodity. That makes us sellers.
Then there’s Zach Wheeler. Wheeler is nearly unblemished in four starts versus the Marlins this season. Each start has resulted in a gem, where he is 2-0 with a 0.65 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 10.1 K’s/9 in 27.2 IP. He has shown excellent skills growth in his second MLB season, especially with keeping the ball on the ground (54% GB% in 2014, 43% in 2013). Wheeler has become an impact starter. In his last start he was as flawless as it gets with an 82% groundball rate and 0% line-drive rate. His only blemish is his walk total, which shows 65 BB in 160 innings. If he can improve upon that, he’s going to be a Cy Young candidate for years to come and one of the true rotation anchors in the game. Wheeler plus a tag against Alvarez and the cooling off Marlins (3-7 over their past 10) gets the call here.
Milwaukee @ CHICAGO
CHICAGO +127 over Milwaukee
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)
The Brewers are going bad. They have lost five straight while being outscored by an incredible 38-11 over that span. They are coming off back-to-back series in San Diego and San Fran in which their relief pitching posted an ERA of 9.60 over 15 innings. What that does is force the manager to leave the starter in longer than he would normally do and the results usually end up being disastrous. Jimmy Nelson has just nine starts this season and is 2-5 with an ERA of 4.10. Nelson does have upside but he’s now pitching under immense pressure in the midst of a serious team slump during a late pennant race. With a good fastball/slider combination, Nelson started last season in Double-A and ended it in the majors. This season he has been at the Triple A level and majors but he has some issues that have prevented him from sticking around for more than a cup of coffee. Strikeouts have been plentiful at each stop, but a high-effort delivery has led to control problems and lots of base-runners at every level. He’s best watched from afar for now and is too big a risk spotting a price on the road with a reeling club.
Meanwhile, the Cubbies are having fun. Chicago is primed to be a serious contender for years to come in the very near future and we’re seeing signs of it now. Loaded with young talent and gaining confidence, Chicago is not a team these contenders want to run into right now. The Cubbies have won 9 of their past 15 games. In their last series at home, they swept the Orioles in a three-game set. They’re scoring runs and they’re enjoying playing the role of the spoiler. Newcomer Jacob Turner makes just his second start since being acquired from Miami. Turner did not have a good outing in his first start in a Cubs uniform, lasting only 3.2 innings while allowing seven hits and three earned runs. He will look to turn things around here against a Brewers team he faced on May 24, throwing 6.1 shutout innings. His skill set says he deserves better than his 5.84 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. We’ve always liked this guy. He has an elite groundball rate of 58% and one of the nastiest sliders in the game. For whatever reason, Turner has struggled at this level but he has to be rejuvenated going to a team with all this potential. Turner has been hurt by a very low strand rate of 64% but this former 1st round pick has the pedigree and stuff to change things around quickly and it would come as no surprise if that occurred here.
MLB
Philadephia @ ATLANTA
Phily (1st 5 innings) +120 over ATLANTA
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)
The Braves’ offense has been hot and cold for two months running and cannot be trusted in this price range against Cole Hamels. At home against the Marlins the past two games, Atlanta scored 1 run and that includes being shut out by Jared Cosart over seven innings. Hamels has gone 17 consecutive starts where he has allowed three earned runs or less. In two starts versus Atlanta this season, he has allowed just one earned run in 14 innings, throwing a true gem both times. Hamels has been outstanding on the road all season, where he owns a 1.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 12 starts. Last time out, he was pulled after just 84 pitches, so he should be fresh coming into this start. He was pulled because he went seven full in those 84 pitches. Cole Hamels is one of the top five pitchers in the game but for whatever reason, he’s been undervalued practically the entire year. We see another example of that here and it’s not like the Phillies can’t win a game either. Philly has won 7 of its past 10, which includes a three-game sweep over Washington prior to facing the Mets this past weekend.
Julio Teheran has won three straight while posting a 1.47 ERA over that span. Don’t buy it. Those three wins came against three struggling teams in Cincinnati, the Mets and Oakland. Truth is, Teheran’s skills have been declining for 7 straight weeks. Over that span, covering his last 10 starts, he has an xERA of 4.77. Teheran’s groundball/fly-ball split on the season was pedestrian to begin with at 35%/45% but over his last 10 it’s turned ugly at 31%/55%. We’re also seeing a significant dip in strikeouts, where Teheran has whiffed just 19 over his past 32 innings. Yesterday we talked about Scott Kazmir running on fumes and right on cue, Kazmir didn’t make it out of the second inning yesterday. We’re seeing a lot of the same characteristics or skills decline in Teheran as we saw in Kazmir and while we’re not suggesting he’ll get knocked out in the second, we are suggesting that he’s way overpriced, that he's running on fumes and that he cannot be this big a favorite over Hamels. Let’s take the pens out of the equation here.
N.Y. Mets @ MIAMI
N.Y. Mets +109 over MIAMI
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)
Henderson Alvarez’s surface stats are one of the most misleading among all starting pitchers. Alvarez is 10-6 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. How can that be? Here’s a guy that has struck out just 97 batters in 157 innings. Indeed he has outstanding control but the fact that he doesn’t miss many bats reveals that all those balls in play are being hit right at people. Alvarez’s 7% swing and miss rate support his low strikeout total and it should be noted that in his last start his swing and miss rate was 4%. In 25 starts, he has just 14 pure quality starts so it’s obvious he’s at the mercy of his defense. Don’t get us wrong, Alvarez does have a strong groundball tilt and outstanding control so he’s usually able to keep his teams in games and win more games than he loses. However, he’s not as good as his surface stats suggest, which makes him an overvalued commodity. That makes us sellers.
Then there’s Zach Wheeler. Wheeler is nearly unblemished in four starts versus the Marlins this season. Each start has resulted in a gem, where he is 2-0 with a 0.65 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 10.1 K’s/9 in 27.2 IP. He has shown excellent skills growth in his second MLB season, especially with keeping the ball on the ground (54% GB% in 2014, 43% in 2013). Wheeler has become an impact starter. In his last start he was as flawless as it gets with an 82% groundball rate and 0% line-drive rate. His only blemish is his walk total, which shows 65 BB in 160 innings. If he can improve upon that, he’s going to be a Cy Young candidate for years to come and one of the true rotation anchors in the game. Wheeler plus a tag against Alvarez and the cooling off Marlins (3-7 over their past 10) gets the call here.
Milwaukee @ CHICAGO
CHICAGO +127 over Milwaukee
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)
The Brewers are going bad. They have lost five straight while being outscored by an incredible 38-11 over that span. They are coming off back-to-back series in San Diego and San Fran in which their relief pitching posted an ERA of 9.60 over 15 innings. What that does is force the manager to leave the starter in longer than he would normally do and the results usually end up being disastrous. Jimmy Nelson has just nine starts this season and is 2-5 with an ERA of 4.10. Nelson does have upside but he’s now pitching under immense pressure in the midst of a serious team slump during a late pennant race. With a good fastball/slider combination, Nelson started last season in Double-A and ended it in the majors. This season he has been at the Triple A level and majors but he has some issues that have prevented him from sticking around for more than a cup of coffee. Strikeouts have been plentiful at each stop, but a high-effort delivery has led to control problems and lots of base-runners at every level. He’s best watched from afar for now and is too big a risk spotting a price on the road with a reeling club.
Meanwhile, the Cubbies are having fun. Chicago is primed to be a serious contender for years to come in the very near future and we’re seeing signs of it now. Loaded with young talent and gaining confidence, Chicago is not a team these contenders want to run into right now. The Cubbies have won 9 of their past 15 games. In their last series at home, they swept the Orioles in a three-game set. They’re scoring runs and they’re enjoying playing the role of the spoiler. Newcomer Jacob Turner makes just his second start since being acquired from Miami. Turner did not have a good outing in his first start in a Cubs uniform, lasting only 3.2 innings while allowing seven hits and three earned runs. He will look to turn things around here against a Brewers team he faced on May 24, throwing 6.1 shutout innings. His skill set says he deserves better than his 5.84 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. We’ve always liked this guy. He has an elite groundball rate of 58% and one of the nastiest sliders in the game. For whatever reason, Turner has struggled at this level but he has to be rejuvenated going to a team with all this potential. Turner has been hurt by a very low strand rate of 64% but this former 1st round pick has the pedigree and stuff to change things around quickly and it would come as no surprise if that occurred here.
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