9-2-14

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Bob Balfe

Philadelphia +150

Kendrick/Minor There will be no playoffs for the Phillies this year, but jobs for next year are on the line in other cities for a core group of players that surely after another bad season are going to get split up. This team yesterday played an overall excellent team game and celebrated a group effort no hitter by this staff. The players were excited and for the first day of September they went back into the club house and there is no doubt they will play with passion to get out of the basement in their division by seasons end. The Braves bats have just not been hitting the ball well enough to justify them being a favorite this big. Take the Phillies.

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Falcon Sports

Kansas City -1 -125 listing Guthrie/Holland

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Sportswagers

N.Y. Mets @ MIAMI
N.Y. Mets -107 over MIAMI

Jonathan Niese is having another predictable season. He comes in with a 3.48 ERA, a 3.79 xERA and a BB/K split of 43/111 in 155 innings. Niese is a risk but his solid command, strong groundball tilt of 50% and consistent history presents potential reward. Truth is, this one has nothing to do with backing Niese and everything to do with fading Brad Penny.

For whatever reason, the Mets’ bats thrive against the Marlins. In fact, New York has scored 6, 9, 5, 7 and 11 runs respectively this season in their last five games against the Fish. The Mets figure to put up another crooked number here. Penny has made two starts this year. Prior to that, Penny had not started a game since 2011. He also has not registered a K rate over 5.8 K’s/9 since 2006. In 13 innings this season (2 starts, 2 relief appearances), Penny has a swing and miss rate of 3%. Over those 13 innings he has walked nine batters. His WHIP is 1.80, his ERA is 5.40 and his xERA is 5.90. Brad Penny is an “old 36” and he’s also out of shape. Penny’s chances of success here about the same as Pearl Jams’ chances of selling out a concert in Israel. Anytime we can fade Penny spotting a cheap price you can pencil us in and we make no exception here.

Our Pick
N.Y. Mets -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)

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Sportswagers

Milwaukee @ CHICAGO
CHICAGO +106 over Milwaukee

The Brewers cannot be favored on the road right now. Milwaukee has dropped six in a row on the road and has been outscored 42-13 over that span. What’s happening to the Brewers (choking) is not unique. They are in the midst of a heated pennant race for the first time in a long time and it’s a role they are not accustomed to. We saw a similar reaction by the Pirates a couple of years ago and we're seeing similar reactions from K.C. and Seattle this year. The Crew will now send out veteran Yovani Gallardo to try and snap this untimely funk. We don’t like his chances. After being a model of consistency throughout his career, things fell apart for Gallardo in 2013. He posted his first 4.00+ ERA while his strikeout total plummeted. Through 27 starts in 2014, Gallardo has a 3.26 ERA so it would appear on the surface that he’s returned to his old ways? Truth is, he has not. Gallardo's K rate, which was once his biggest strength, continues to plummet. His fading swing and miss rate doesn't give much hope for a rebound, either. In his last start, Gallardo walked three and struck out none. He has a BB/K split over his last 30 innings of 11/17. His xERA doesn't believe in the ERA rebound. Under the surface, Gallardo’s skill set has "4.00+ ERA" written all over it. He’s been greatly aided by an 77% strand rate and that strand % is even higher over his last six starts at 81%. Gallardo is a struggling pitcher that has been living off extreme good fortune over the last two months but with the roof caving in on the Brewers, his luck is likely going to take a turn for the worse. Avoid.

Jake Arietta is coming off a terrible performance where he allowed six earned runs in just four innings in a disaster start versus the Reds. He will look to rebound at home against the Brewers, who he faced on August 11 and allowed just five hits and two earned runs in 7.1 innings. Arietta’s August results look ugly, as he was 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in five starts. An unlucky 57% strand rate really hurt him while the rest of his skills maintained at a high level (3.04 xERA, 50% groundball %, 8.6K’s/9, 3.6 BB. His home form has been tremendous, where he has a skills supported 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 58 innings. Overall, Arietta has 135 K’s in 128 innings, a 50% groundball rate and a 1.05 WHIP. The Cubbies continue to play well and have now won 10 of their past 15 games. Milwaukee is wrongly being billed as the chalk here and we’re all over it.

Our Pick
CHICAGO +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

Seattle @ OAKLAND
Seattle +130 over OAKLAND

The A’s snapped an ugly losing streak yesterday with a 6-1 victory in the opener of this series. Newcomer Adam Dunn provided a spark with a jack in his first AB to spark the A’s to a five-run first inning. That’s a nice story, it really is but the addition of Dunn was a desperation move by Billy Beane to ignite his offense. Dunn will DH primarily against righties, which unfortunately means he’s likely on the bench to start this one against lefty James Paxton. Mr. Three True Outcomes (walk, strikeout or HR) is nothing more than a rally killer and he’s batting cleanup. Last September, Dunn hit .159 in a hitter’s park. At O.co Coliseum, expect something closer to .059. If and when he gets in tonight, he’s more of a hindrance than a help. Take away the five runs that the A’s scored in the 1st inning last night and they have scored just two runs over their last 36 innings. Now this struggling lineup will have to face a pitcher that has some of the nastiest stuff you will ever see. Paxton's health issues have been well documented, as have his outstanding skills (career 1.71 ERA in 63.1 MLB innings). Paxton has a career BAA of .202 after allowing just 47 hits in those 63 innings. In fact, there's nothing new to add since the last few times we've written about Paxton. If he's healthy, he's likely to be brilliant and right now he says he feels great.

By contrast, Sonny Gray hasn’t been so great lately. You always have to be cautious with pitchers that are not accustomed to throwing this many innings. In his two years above A-ball in the minors, Gray threw just 48 innings in 2011 and 152 in 2012. Last year, he threw just 64 innings at this level. This season, Gray is already up to 178 innings and all the signs of fatigue are present. Over his last 32 innings, his walks are up (13) and his K rate is down (21). The A’s have lost three of the past four games that Gray has started and over that span he has posted an ERA of 5.06 to go along with an alarming 1.53 WHIP. Gray could rebound, as he has the skills but in the end, we see a fresh pitcher with brilliant stuff against a tiring one that is struggling. We also get to fade a team that is reeling and seeing golf balls at the dish. Seattle is struggling too right now but they still offer up tremendous value at this price with Paxton going.


Our Pick
Seattle +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

15 Units Cubs +105

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Under Umpire Streakers

UN 7.5 -125 MIL/CUBS 1.25u/1.00u
Barry 8ov/16un L24gms 66.7%

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Brandon Lang

20 Dime

Nationals/Dodgers Under

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Kevin's Pick(s):
Yesterday seemed like a sick joke as we went 0-4, with three of the four plays looking good late. The Mets blew a save and then gave up 3 in the 8th to lose, the Red Sox were a big underdog but lost in the bottom of the 10th, and the Royals were up 4-0 through 5 innings but gave up three runs to win but not cover the run line for us. I feel like those are the types of stories we've been seeing all year though.

2 UNIT = Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres - UNDER 6.5 RUNS (-105)
Listed Pitchers: Miley vs Despaigne
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)

2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies - OVER 10 RUNS (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Petit vs Lyles
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)

2 UNIT = Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - PHILLIES TO WIN (+173)
Listed Pitchers: Kendrick vs Minor
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.46 units)

2 UNIT = Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins - WHITE SOX TO WIN (+120)
Listed Pitchers: Noesi vs Milone
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.40 units)

2 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays - BLUE JAYS TO WIN (+105)
Listed Pitchers: Dickey vs Hellickson
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.10 units)

Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers - UNDER 6 RUNS (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Fister vs Kershaw
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime


MLB Baseball

1000* Play Atlanta -160 over Philadelphia (TOP MLB)

Atlanta has won 65 of the last 91 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have won 39 of the last 55 home games coming off a loss in their last game.Atlanta has won 41 of the last 72 games when playing on a Tuesday and they have won 91 of the last 161 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game.

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50* Play New York Yankees -140 over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Kansas City -160 over Texas (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

TUESDAY BASEBALL

• Play St. Louis -145 over Pittsburgh----Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)

8:10 PM EST

St. Louis has won 43 of the last 71 games when playing on a Tuesday and they have won 35 of the last 55 games when playing in the month of September. St. Louis has won 85 of the last 129 home games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have won 34 of the last 57 games vs. division opponents.

• Play Oakland -140 over Seattle---Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)
  10:10 PM EST

Oakland has won 73 of the last 109 games when playing as a favorite of -110 or higher and they have won 73 of the last 107 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Oakland has won 44 of the last 67 home games and they have won 37 of the last 56 games when playing in the month of September.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

TUESDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play St. Louis -145 over Pittsburgh (MLB TOP PLAY)

St. Louis is 43-28 when playing on a Tuesday
St. Louis is 35-20 when playing in the month of September
St. Louis is 85-44 when playing as a home favorite


10* Play Oakland -140 over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)

Oakland is 73-36 when playing as a favorite of -110 or higher
Oakland is 73-34 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
Oakland is 44-23 in home games this season

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5* Play Miami +110 over New York Mets (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Cleveland -140 over Detroit (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

2014-09-06 (4 days)

MLB Premium Picks

Top Pick

MLB	Sep 02 ,2014	10:10p	[961] Arizona Diamondbacks [962] San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres -117 at Pinnacle
5* NL West Game of the Month on Padres - The Padres are showing outstanding value as a small home favorite against division rival Arizona tonight. San Diego comes in having won 4 of their last 5, while the Diamondbacks have won just 4 of their last 14. I look for the Padres to open up the series with a big win, as I believe they have a key edge on the mound. San Diego will start Odrisamer Despaigne, who has a dominant 2.25 ERA and 1.100 WHIP over 6 home starts. He faced off against the Diamondbacks earlier this season at home and held them to just 1 run on 5 hits over 6 2/3 innings. Arizona will counter with Wade Miley, who has really struggled against the Padres. Miley is 1-6 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.424 WHIP over 11 career starts versus San Diego. Arizona is 4-17 in their last 21 games when listed as an underdog, 1-6 in Miley's last 7 starts against the NL West and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts against a team with a losing record. San Diego is 12-1 in their last 13 games when listed as a favorite, 8-0 in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing record and 20-6 in their last 26 home games overall. Strong system backing the Padres in this one. Favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 who are a below average hitting team (AVG

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Jeff Clement

8* Atlanta -170

10* Milwaukee -110

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Trev Rogers

Angels/ Astros OVER 8.5 (-126)

Mets/ Marlins OVER 8 (-106)

Marlins +101