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cleveland
cleveland
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InsiderProPicks
Orioles
Over Cardinals/Pirates
Under Royals/RangersComment
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Locksmith sports
wash 2u
texas 2u
toronto 2uComment
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Indian Cowboy
WNBA
7* - Ind/Chi over 145.5Comment
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James Jones
Under 6.5 Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics -109...(2*)Comment
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Johnny Wynn
Boston +157
NY Mets +102
White Sox/ Twins OVER 9.5 (-103)Comment
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Trev Rogers
Rangers/ Royals OVER 8 (-103)
Tigers/ Indians OVER 8 (-109)
Tampa Bay Rays -111Comment
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LineCatchers
The White Sox hand the baseball to John Danks on Wednesday and comes into this match up having not won a decision since the 31st July 2014.
In his last 5 trips to the mound, Danks went 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA in August and he’s struggled against the Twins throughout his career including this season. Minnesota have a combined BA of .314 against the lefty in 2014 with a .431 slugging percentage.
Since being called up by the Twins from Triple-A Rochester on the 9th August 2014, Trevor May is 0-4 with a 10.42 ERA and 2.34 WHIP. These ugly numbers have seen May allow 20 ER in less than 17 IP. The White Sox have recorded 10 or more hits in 4 of their last 5 games and I foresee the south siders of Chicago to get runners on base tonight.
The Over is 9-5 this year between these teams and the Twins have hit lefties pretty well this campaign, averaging just under 5 runs per game when opposed by southpaw starters.
Chicago White Sox / Minnesota Twins Over 9.5Comment
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LJ CONSULTING COACH
3* Boston vs Yankees – Over 8.5
2* Tampa Bay -111
1* Astros +122Comment
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BOB BALFE
Chicago Cubs -110 over BrewersComment
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SHAKER’S SHORTS
#924 Houston Astros – Team Total OVER 3.5 -110Comment
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Sports Pick Predictions
Miami Marlins -110 (2 units)
Tampa Bay Rays -114 (2 units)
Detroit Tigers -125 (2 units)
San Diego Padres/Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 6.5, -120 (2 units)Comment
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SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS
We came back with a winning day on Tuesday after a tough Labor day. Now we just have to sweep the card tonight to get something going!! Let's go into the start of the NFL season on a high note!!
MLB
Kansas City RL -1.5 +115
San Francisco RL -1.5 +110Comment
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VegasButcher - Arizona Diamondbacks +130
The first thing that caught my eye in this matchup is that Josh Collmenter is ranked 15th starting pitcher over the last 30-days of the season with a 25% K-rate, 3.3% BB-rate, 10% SwStr%, and 3.2/2.8/2.9 FxS. His FIP is higher than his xFIP/SIERA because he’s allowed some homeruns, but that’s not as big of a concern in Petco which is a pitcher’s park. In his 2 starts against the Padres this year, Collmenter has allowed 9 hits and 1 ER in 13.2 innings of work, to go with 12 K and 2 BB. His last start against the Padres came 10 days ago, as he had a 1.2 FIP in that one with a 2.5 SIERA. Collmenter is pretty much a fastball/changeup pitcher and part of the reason for his success against the Padres is the fact that offensively San Diego ranks dead last against both pitches. I think it’s fair to assume a strong outing from him tonight.
Opposite Collmenter is Andrew Cashner, and that’s where things get a little more interesting. Cashner has a 2.4 ERA on the season but his 2.9 FIP is 0.5 runs higher. His 3.5/3.7 xFIP/SIERA are even higher than that (over a run higher than his ERA) and clearly Cashner’s HR/FB rate has been a lot lower than normal. He’s at 9.3% average for his career, while his 4.1% mark so far this season is unsustainably low. These things will normalize over a course of a long season, but for today it’s important to note that Cashner is a lot closer to Collmenter’s 4.1 ERA than his own 2.4 ERA indicates. Future regression or not, why should Cashner be worried when facing such a weak hitting D-backs lineup? Well, Cashner had two starts against Arizona this year, one on 05/02 when guys like Prado, Parra, and Goldy were in there, and the 2nd time more recently on 08/23, when the current group of hitters was facing him. Let’s take a statistical look at the two:
05/02: 6.0 inn; 4 hits; 2 ER; 1 K to 3 BB; 4.3/5.1/5.5 FxS; 62% GB-rate (Prado/Parra/Goldy)
08/23: 5.0 inn; 7 hits; 2 ER; 1 K to 2 BB; 6.5/6.2/6.3 FxS; 38% GB-rate (Young guys + Trumbo)
The first thing that sticks out is the fact that in 11.0 innings against Dbacks Cashner has only 2 K’s and 5 BB’s. Regardless who has been in the lineup for Arizona, Cashner has had trouble striking guys out, and don’t forget that’s with pitchers manning the 9th spot in the order. In addition, his advanced ERA estimators have been just awful. The 6.3 SIERA that Cashner has recorded in his last start against Arizona, is the single worst mark out of his 14 starts this year. Do you know when his 2nd worst SIERA was this year? Well, that was the 5.5 mark he recorded in his first appearance against the DBacks back in May. (Side note: I just chose SIERA to focus on one of the measures but the same pattern exists with xFIP also…FIP is actual-HR dependent, instead of league-average rate, so is not a very good stat to use when focusing on individual game performances). Interestingly, it didn’t seem to matter who is swinging the bats for Arizona, both times the offense made good contact off Cashner, though were a bit unlucky not to plate more runs (only 4 ER’s). So in those 2 starts Cashner’s ERA was 3.3, while his FxS were 5.4/5.7/5.9. Will Arizona have a little more success scoring some ‘actual’ runs today? Well, Cashner is primarily a fastball pitcher (73% of the time) who mixes in his slider (17%) and changeup (9%). Over the last two weeks, these young Arizona hitters have ranked 11th against the ‘fastball’ and 4th against the ‘changeup’ offensively. They can’t hit the “slider” at all, but that pitch hasn’t been as effective for Cashner this season.
If we’re onto ‘something’ here, then the Dbacks should have some success against Cashner, especially if they’re putting the ball in play again and aren’t striking out. But even if all of this is just a random coincidence (very well could be since the sample size is so small), Arizona should still have a better than just a 40% chance of winning this matchup. DBacks are 2-4 in the last 6 games, but their pitching and defense have allowed an average of 2.3 rpg in those. If that continues, all we need is a little more offense out of them tonight to get a win. I know San Diego is 6-1 in their last 7 games, but how many 1-run ball games are they going to continue winning? Out of their last 6 wins, four were by 1 run and one other was by 2. If today’s game is once again a 1-run affair, Arizona should have an advantage in the later innings. Padres’ bullpen isn’t in as good of a shape for this one. Interim closer Kevin Quackenbush has pitched in 2 straight games and last time he faced Arizona on 08/23 he proceeded to give up a walk, a single, and a 3-run homer to register a loss. Hard to expect him to be available tonight. In addition, Vincent has pitched in 2 straight games as well and in 4 of the last 5 days. His availability as well as his stamina could be questionable for tonight. Cashner typically only pitches about 6 innings per start and if Arizona is hitting him well that could be even lower. Padres’ bullpen won’t be at full strength tonight, so that’s definitely an advantage for the DBacks in the later innings. By comparison, Arizona’s BP is fully rested.
Bottom line is that we have a strong pitcher in Collmenter (#15 over the last 30-days), he’s backed by a strong bullpen (#7 overall) and good defense (#11), and we’re catching a solid +130 on him. I believe there is ‘something’ to Cashner’s inability to dominate Arizona and I think we have a strong play here tonight.Comment
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Andre Gomes
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Under 7 @ -105 / 1.95 on BetOnline
The first 2 games of this series were pure slugfests w/ 15 and 14 runs scored and we couldn’t be happier as we cashed our OVER play quite easily yesterday. However, for tonight I think that this will turn into a “Pitchers duel” and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here.
NYM’s SP Jacob deGrom has been consistently lately as he finished August w/ pretty underrated stats line of 3.42 ERA, 3.05 FIP & 3.07 xFIP! He already has faced MIA twice this season and was great in both starts w/ just one ER allowed in 14 innings!
On the other end, MIA’s SP Tom Koehler is coming from b2b decent starts on the road @COL & @ATL. This is a good sign for him due to his heavy struggles on the road this season because at home, Koehler has been excellent this season w/ 2.69 ERA + 3.28 FIP + 3.98 xFIP!
We are looking for two underrated young Pitchers that I expect to perform quite well lately and will be a tough matchup for these offenses.Comment
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