9-5-14

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Today's CFL Picks

BC at Ottawa

The REDBLACKS (1-8) play host to BC on Friday in search of the second win of the season. Ottawa is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by only 6. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+9). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 5 Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (9/3)

Game 493-494: BC at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: BC 113.490; Ottawa 107.534 Dunkel Line: BC by 6; 52 Vegas Line: BC by 9; 48 Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+9); Over

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 11
By David Schwab
VegasInsider

The Labor Day Weekend featured four division matchups in the CFL starting last Friday with Montreal doubling-up Ottawa 20-10 as a 4½-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER the 45½-point closing line. Sunday’s action featured Game 1 of a home-and-home series between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan with the Roughriders carving-out the early edge in a thrilling 35-30 shootout as 7½-point home favorite. The total went OVER the 48 ½-point line.

Monday’s holiday double-header started off with Hamilton squeezing past Toronto 13-12 as three-point home favorite with the total staying well UNDER the 52-point line. Calgary got the early edge in its home-and-home series against Edmonton with a 28-13 victory as a 4½-point favorite at home. The total stayed UNDER the 49½-point closing line.

Friday, Sept. 5

British Columbia (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Ottawa (1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS)

Point-spread: BC -8½
Total: 48½

Game Overview

British Columbia went into last week’s bye with a 3-1 record both SU and ATS in its last four games. Kevin Glenn has taken the bulk of the snaps at quarterback this season and he is actually ranked fourth in the CFL in total passing yards, but look for the possible return of Travis Lulay, who has finally been cleared to play.

The expectation level for expansion teams is usually set pretty low and Ottawa has followed suit with just one SU win in its first nine games in the league. The RedBacks’ offense is ranked dead-last in the CFL in scoring with an average of 15.1 points per game, while their defense is allowing 27.9 points to their opponents.

Betting Trends

The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a losing record and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their first nine games this year. The RedBlacks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record.

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Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider

Pittsburgh at Boston College

As of early Wednesday, most books had Pittsburgh (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) installed as a four or 4.5-point road favorite for both school's ACC opener. The total was in the 49-50 range. Gamblers can take the Eagles on the money line for a +170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

Pitt cruised to a 62-0 win over Delaware as a 24-point home favorite in Saturday's opener. The Panthers, who won by the widest margin since 1913, produced 501 yards of total offense and limited the Fightin' Blue Hens to merely 57 total yards. They led 42-0 at intermission and coasted to the easy win. Sophomore RB James Conner was the catalyst with 153 rushing yards and four touchdowns on just 14 carries. Chad Voytik completed 10-of-13 passes for 84 yards and two TDs without an interception.

Pitt sophomore WR Tyler Boyd, a first-team Freshman All-American and a second-team All-ACC selection in 2013, suffered a finger injury in last week's opener. Boyd had two receptions for 18 yards and one TD against Delaware. He also had two carries for 17 yards and three punt returns for 72 yards before leaving the game early. Boyd has been upgraded to 'probable' this week after practicing Tuesday with some wrap on his hand. As a true freshman last season, Boyd had 85 receptions for 1,174 yards and seven TDs.

Boston College (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) captured a 30-7 win as a 17-point road favorite in last week's season opener at Massachusetts. Florida transfer Tyler Murphy was excellent in his BC debut, completing 17-of-24 throws for 173 yards with one TD and one interception. Murphy rushed 13 times for a team-high 118 yards and one TD, becoming the first BC quarterback to rush for more than 100 yards since Doug Flutie in 1984.

With RB Andre Williams taking his 2,177 rushing yards from 2013 to the NFL this year, the bulk of the carries will be split by Myles Willis and Tyler Rouse. Willis rushed for 57 yards and one TD on 16 carries, while Rouse finished with 19 totes for 87 yards.

Since 2004, BC owns a 10-6 spread record as a home underdog. The Eagles are 2-0 ATS as home 'dog on Steve Addazio's watch.

Pitt has been a road favorite five times during Paul Chryst's tenure, posting a 2-3 spread record.

These former Big East rivals haven't faced each other in a decade. They squared off every season from 1993 to 2004. Four of the last eight head-to-head meetings were decided by four points or fewer, with two of the last three contests going to overtime.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Washington State at Nevada

As of Wednesday, most spots had Washington State (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 66. Bettors can take the Wolf Pack to win outright for a +155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).

Nevada (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) won a 28-19 decision over Southern Utah in its opener, but it failed to cover the number as a 24.5-point favorite. The Wolf Pack took a 28-6 advantage early in the fourth quarter and appeared as if it might hook up its supporters. However, the Thunderbirds answered with a TD drive and then got an 85-yard pick-six with 1:59 remaining to make the final score look more respectable.

Nevada senior QB Cody Fajardo was sharp against Southern Utah, connecting on 30-of-41 throws for 303 passing yards with one TD and one interception. Fajardo ran 15 times for 68 yards, including an 11-yard TD scamper. For his career, Fajardo has a 40/19 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 2,504 rushing yards.

Washington State is in a must-win situation here after dropping a 41-38 decision to Rutgers as a 7.5-point home favorite last Thursday (note that Nevada played Saturday, so Wazzu has had two extra days of preparation). After trailing 21-17 at intermission, the Cougars took a 31-24 lead going into the fourth quarter. They went ahead 38-34 with 8:13 remaining on a five-yard TD pass from Connor Halliday to Rickey Galvin. However, RU's Paul James scored on a three-yard TD run with 3:24 left and the Scarlet Knights held off Washington St.'s last-gasp effort to escape Pullman with the upset victory.

Halliday had a tremendous performance, completing 40-of-56 passes for 532 yards and five TDs compared to only one interception. But he got zero help from a ground attack that produced just six rushing yards on 14 attempts. Vince Mayle had a team-high 12 receptions for 124 yards and one TD, while Isiah Myer had six catches for 94 yards and a pair of TDs.

Nevada was a home underdog twice in Brian Polian's first season as head coach in 2013, compiling a 2-0 spread record. The Wolf Pack beat San Jose St. outright as a seven-point 'dog and comfortably took the cash in a 28-23 loss to BYU as a 15.5-point puppy.

Nevada is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games (all on the road) against Pac-12 foes over the last three seasons. The last time the Wolf Pack faced a Pac-12 opponent at home in Reno was in 2010 when it blasted California by a 52-31 count as a 2.5-point underdog.

This is just the third time Wazzu has been a road 'chalk' on Mike Leach's watch. The Cougars are 1-1 ATS in the two previous situations.

ESPN will have the broadcast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.

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StatFox Super Situations

NEW MEXICO ST at GEORGIA ST
Play On - A road team (NEW MEXICO ST) poor defense from last season - allowed 400 or more total yards/game, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

E CAROLINA at S CAROLINA
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (E CAROLINA) after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game 31-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.8% | 0.0 units )

PITTSBURGH at BOSTON COLLEGE
Play Over - Any team vs the the 1rst half total after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game, with 5+ more offensive starters returning than opponent 46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

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Behind The Bets

CFB

BC +4.5 (1U)
Nevada +4 (1U)

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Game of the Day: Pittsburgh at Boston College

Pittsburgh Panthers at Boston College Eagles (+4, 49)

Pittsburgh and Boston College used rushing performances that connected them to their glorious pasts en route to easy season-opening wins last weekend. The former Big East rivals try to do the same Friday when they face each other for the first time as ACC foes as BC hosts the Panthers. Florida transfer Tyler Murphy threw for 173 yards and rushed for 118 versus Massachusetts, becoming the first Eagles quarterback since Doug Flutie in 1984 to rush for more than 100 yards.

The Eagles generated 338 of their 511 total yards on the ground in a 30-7 triumph – their first game since the graduation of Heisman Trophy finalist Andre Williams, who became only the 16th player in NCAA history to rush for more than 2,000 yards last year. Pittsburgh’s own bruising back – 250-pound James Conner – ripped FCS Delaware for 153 yards and four touchdowns in one half during a 62-0 victory, part of 409-yard rushing effort that was the most for the school since the 1976 national championship season. The Eagles and Panthers, who met every year from 1993-2004, resume their rivalry after a 10-year break.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Boston College opened as 4.5-point home dogs and have been bet to +4. The total has held steady at 49.

INJURY REPORT: Pittsburgh - WR Tyler Boyd probable Friday (finger). Boston College - OL Harris Williams out Friday (ankle).

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (1-0, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U): In addition to posting their biggest margin of victory since 1913, the Panthers outgained the Blue Hens 501-57 en route to their first shutout in nine years. However, not all the news was positive for Pittsburgh as receiver Tyler Boyd, who set school freshman records for receptions and receiving yards last fall, left in the second quarter after dislocating a finger on his left hand on a punt return. Boyd’s probable status for Friday means more of the offensive load could fall on sophomore quarterback Chad Voytik, who went 10-for-13 for 84 yards and two TDs in his first career start.

ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (1-0, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U): The Eagles were slightly less proficient on the ground (338 yards on 61 attempts) than the Panthers last week, but turned to Murphy as well as running backs Tyler Rouse (87 yards) and Myles Willis (57) to replace the production Williams usually accounted for last season. "We're not just one back anymore. All of us are coming and the quarterback's running, too,” Willis told the Boston Herald. Josh Bordner, who served as the backup quarterback over the last three seasons, fared well in his debut as a receiver, finishing with four catches for 81 yards and a touchdown.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.
* Over is 5-0 in the Eagles last five home games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Almost 62 percent of wagers are backing Pittsburgh at -4.5, with almost 61 percent of total bets on the under 49.

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Soccer Crusher
Bahia + Internacional OVER 2 - Conmebol pending
Cork City FC + Shamrock Rovers UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Ireland
(System Record: 630-22, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 630-521-91

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Doc Sports

6 Unit Play

Take Nevada Wolf Pack +4 over Washington State Cougars (Friday 10:30 pm ESPN) TOP NCCA GAME OF THE WEEK.

The football will be in the air early and often in this game, but I feel that the wrong team is favored. MWC teams love to host teams from the big conferences, and you can expect the fan base will be ready for this night game in Reno. Nevada has a solid defense, especially against the pass, and that should bode well for them since Wazzou hardly ever runs the football. This will be the second straight road game for the Cougars (Seattle is not drivable from Pullman), and that usually takes its toll on a team. Nevada has the much better quarterback in Cody Fajardo, and the Wolf Pack is two-dimensional on offense. Washington State gave up a ton of points to Rutgers, and I just do not see them winning this game. Nevada is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. I expect Nevada to win this game straight-up and getting points is just icing on the cake.

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RAS

Washington State (-2.5)

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Baseball Crusher

Play of the Day
Los Angeles Dodgers -160 over Arizona Diamondbacks

Rest of the Plays
Seattle Mariners -161 over Texas Rangers
Miami Marlins -125 over Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees -122 over KC Royals

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RAS

Washington State (-2.5)

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF STAT/SHEETS
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4th 2014

***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #2 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NCAA College Football News and Notes - Week #1
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the matchups that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in opening college football weekend. Each week there are several squads that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

•UL-Monroe (-1½) 17, Wake Forest 10: Despite posting fewer than 100 yards in the game, Wake Forest led 10-0 at the half Thursday night in a game that featured a big line move with the Demon Deacons initially a four-point favorite. By the start of the fourth quarter, the Warhawks had the game tied, capitalizing on a turnover with a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. On its second drive of the fourth quarter, Louisiana-Monroe delivered a 12-play drive for the go-ahead score with just over three minutes left on the clock. UL-Monroe out-gained Wake Forest 352-94 in the game as the Warhawks were impressive on defense in the opening win but the game wound up being down to the wire.

•Tulsa (-5) 38, Tulane 31: This American Athletic Conference opener featured Tulane leading the entire way, but a wild finish flipped the result. Tulsa got within one with a short field goal about halfway through the fourth quarter, but Tulane shortly thereafter connected on a 60-yard pass play for a touchdown to put the Wave up 28-20 with under seven minutes left on the clock. Tulsa would march down the field to answer, connecting for the score on a fourth down play and the successful two-point conversion incredibly tied the game with less than three minutes on the clock. It looked all for naught as on first down deep in its own its territory, Tulane running back Sherman Badie broke loose with a 73 yard run to inside the Tulsa 10. Tulane would end up settling for a short field goal try, and Andrew DiRocco would miss left from just 21 yards, a kick that would have at the very least sealed an underdog cover. Both teams had the ball again in the final two minutes, but both drives stalled midfield and overtime was needed. In the first session, both teams hit short field goals but Tulsa found the end zone going first in the second session. Tulane quarterback Tanner Lee was then intercepted on 2nd down to end the game, giving Tulsa the win and a miraculous favorite cover on opening night.

•Mississippi (-10) 35, Boise State 13: The start of the season did not look pretty in this national TV game as both teams struggled with penalties and turnovers in the first half. By the start of the fourth quarter, Mississippi led just 7-6 as both teams squandered scoring chances with interceptions. While Boise State did a great job stopping the run, the Mississippi passing attack found some openings in the fourth quarter, scoring three touchdowns in less than five minutes of game clock, including a 76-yard play to put the Rebels comfortably ahead 28-6. Boise State would answer with a scoring drive to get back within 15, but after failing to recover the onside kick, Mississippi was able to punch in another touchdown to put the game away. The yardage was fairly close in this game with the underdog Broncos holding a big edge on the ground. The final score was certainly a bit misleading in what was a sloppy opening effort for both teams.

•Rutgers (+7½) 41, Washington State 38: Rutgers stormed out to an early lead in this game, but Washington State would rally to take the lead three different times in the second half, though the Cougars never actually got past the favorite spread at any point. Washington State led by seven entering the fourth quarter to put fear into those on the underdog that felt good about a win with the hot start from the Knights. Rutgers would answer with back-to-back scoring drives in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter to lead 34-31, but it took less than three minutes for Washington State to get the lead back, up 38-34 with just over eight minutes to go. On the next Rutgers possession, the Knights were stuffed deep in their own zone and forced to punt, seemingly giving the quick striking Washington State offense a chance to score and subsequently pull past the spread, but the punt returner muffed the catch and Rutgers recovered at midfield. Rutgers was able to move down the field for the go-ahead scored with just over three minutes to go in the game, all but locking up the underdog cover. Washington State ran seven plays on its final possession, but they could not convert and Rutgers scored a nice upset win in its debut representing the Big Ten.

•BYU (-14½) 35, Connecticut 10: BYU took control of this game early, but the favorite cover was in serious jeopardy late in the game. Down by 18, Connecticut went all the way down to the BYU 10-yard line but the Huskies came up short going for it on 4th down with just over six minutes to go. BYU would answer with a touchdown to put the game away as another Connecticut drive deep into BYU territory late in the game would also prove fruitless.

•Colorado State (+2½) 31, Colorado 17: The Buffaloes led 10-0 into the second quarter in this Rocky Mountain rivalry game and scoring first in the second half put the Buffaloes back up by 10 at 17-7. A strong kickoff return put the Rams in good position and they answered with a touchdown drive but Colorado still led by three, just covering the narrow favorite spread entering the fourth quarter. Shortly into the final frame, Colorado State took its first lead and then the Rams stepped up on defense, holding Colorado scoreless in the fourth quarter to pull away with a minor upset win.

•Ohio State (-13) 34, Navy 17: The spread on this big opening game was a roller coaster, opening at -17 then dropping significantly with Braxton Miller’s injury. The spread climbed nearly all the way back up before falling again on game day. For most of the game, the underdog was in prime position with Navy actually leading deep into the third quarter. Ohio State led by six entering the final frame, but a Navy field goal cut the margin to just three points, seemingly securing the cover for the underdog. It was not to be, however, as Ohio State delivered two long scoring drives to close out the game with the ATS win sealing touchdown with just over two minutes to go as Navy backers took a very tough defeat.

•Boston College (-17) 30, Massachusetts 7: The Eagles led just 20-7 entering the fourth quarter after the Minutemen connected on a 77-yard pass play for their only score of the day. Boston College would pull past the spread with 10 points in the fourth quarter in a game the Eagles had over 500 yards in despite modest scoring.

•Auburn (-17) 45, Arkansas 21: As a heavy underdog, Arkansas played a great first half sitting tied with the defending SEC champions at 21-21 at the break. After an Auburn touchdown, disaster struck for the Razorbacks with an interception returned for a touchdown late in the third quarter putting the Tigers up by 14. Storms were threatening in the fourth quarter and those on the underdog got a big stop with Arkansas holding Auburn to a field goal with less than 10 minutes left in the game to keep the margin at 17 points. A nearly hour and a half delay ensued with lightning in the area, putting Arkansas in an impossible situation to come back and finish the game knowing they had little chance to win. Auburn added a late touchdown to give the heavy favorite a very fortunate cover.

•Georgia (-9½) 45, Clemson 21: This big primetime matchup featured Clemson dominating the yardage in the first half, but Georgia managing to match the Tigers at 21-21 with the help of short field drives and a kickoff return touchdown. After the high scoring first half, the third quarter featured only three points as the severe late line move on this game appeared to be wrong. Georgia would bowl over the Clemson defense in the fourth quarter, however, breaking long runs and scoring three touchdowns in a four-minute span to pull away, producing a misleading final score and misleading yardage totals in the box score.

•Oklahoma (-34) 48, Louisiana Tech 16: Oklahoma was one of the biggest favorites of the weekend as far as FBS matchups, but the spread dropped four points throughout the week. The Sooners dominated the game and led 41-3 entering the fourth quarter, but the underdog Bulldogs would get two touchdowns in the fourth quarter against an uninterested Sooners defense, the second of which came with just 37 seconds left in the game for a spread spoiling backdoor cover.

•LSU (-3½) 28, Wisconsin 24: The spread in the big Saturday night game bounced around between 3½ and 5, making for contrasting results for everyone involved depending on the timing with the closing number falling back to just 3½. Wisconsin was in control early with a 10-point lead at the half, growing to 11-points heading into the fourth quarter. Those on the underdog certainly had growing concern as injuries had decimated a Badgers defense that played well in the first half and the Wisconsin offense was really struggling. As often has been the case with LSU, the Tigers managed to pull ahead with a 28-24 edge in the fourth quarter. Wisconsin seemingly had it last possession deep in its own zone with less than two minutes to go as those on the Badgers +4 or greater held their breath. Gary Andersen oddly opted to punt despite the minimal chance that his team could get the ball back, but the move probably saved LSU from scoring again and earning a clear favorite cover at any number.
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NCAAF Line Watch - Week #2
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo

Each and every week during the 2014-15 college football season right here in our Weekly Stat/Sheets, StatSystems Sports Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out. “Until next week, enjoy and as always the very best of luck” -Jude!

Spread To Bet Now

•Fresno State Bulldogs @ Utah Utes (-10.5, Over/Under 63)
Utah is currently a 10.5-point home favorite and I expect the money to come in on the Utes in this matchup. Utah cruised to an easy 56-14 home win over FCS Idaho State in its season opener. The Utes have a lot of momentum for this game and since they have a bye on deck, we can expect a prime effort in Week #2.

Fresno State was completely out-classed in their 52-13 loss to USC during Week #1. It’s clear that the Bulldogs are not the same team that went 11-2 last season. Now they must play their second consecutive confrontation on the road after taking a physical beating. This line will only go up, so lay the points with Utah now.

Spread To Wait On

•Michigan Wolverines @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4.5, Over/Under 54.5)
Michigan and Notre Dame both won by impressive margins last weekend. The Wolverines beat Appalachian State 52-14 while the Fighting Irish beat Rice 48-17. The early money has come in on Michigan as the Wolverines are down to +4.5 after opening as +5.5 road underdogs. I expect continued line movement downward as the power ratings make this game right around a field goal spread.

Notre Dame is a much better team this season with the return of quarterback Everett Golson. The QB situation in South Bend was a mess last year, but with stability the Irish can run a balanced offense. Michigan has been stale over the last two years and this year doesn’t look any different. I expect the public to be on the underdog, so playing the Irish closer to kick off is the way to go.

Total To Watch

•Michigan State Spartans @ Oregon Ducks (-12, Over/Under 56)
This non-conference matchup is a contrast in styles. Michigan State wins with defense and it plays ball control with its ability to run the football consistently. Oregon wants to play as fast as possible, wearing down its opponent’s defense. The early projected lines here on the strip in Las Vegas have this total pegged at 56 points. Oregon is currently a 12-point favorite, so an opening number in the high 50s makes a lot of sense. Michigan State’s highest posted total during last season was 54 points with twelve of its 14 games set at 48.5 or less.


Quick Hits - Week #2
Systems Analyst James Vogel

Friday, 9/5/2014

#303 PITTSBURGH @ #304 BOSTON COLLEGE - 7:00 PM
These former Big East teams will meet as ACC foes for the first time with the Panthers visiting Chestnut Hill for this primetime matchup. Boston College has led the recent series history but the last meeting was in 2004. The Eagles have been a formidable underdog in recent years and this will be the home opener after opening up southwest of town in Foxborough last week. This is the first of back-to-back road games for a Pittsburgh team that is just 4-7 S/U on the road in two seasons under Paul Chryst. The Eagles have dropped five consecutive lined home openers and after surprising last season it could be a step back 2014 season for BC.

#305 WASHINGTON ST @ #306 NEVADA - 10:30 PM
The Wolf Pack possesses a lot of experience on defense but this will be a daunting matchup to prepare for. Several pass-oriented teams posted big numbers on Nevada last season but this looks like a team that should improve this season, even after some sloppiness in the opening week win over Southern Utah. This will be a second straight game away from home for the Cougars and the smaller conference recruits out west will be thrilled to host a Pac-12 school. Two years ago Nevada beat California as a double-digit underdog and with veteran quarterback Cody Fajardo back for his senior season and an experienced defense this may be a tougher game than expected for the visiting Cougars. Washington State had a prominent opening game and after allowing nearly 33 points per game on average last season the defenses appears to still have issues after losing to Rutgers 41-38, and surrendering big yardage on the ground.

Top-25 Matchups Week #2

#307 FLA ATLANTIC @ #308 ALABAMA - 12:00 PM
The Crimson Tide will face soft spots on the schedule the next two weeks following up a opening game win over West Virginia that was tougher than expected. This line may climb out of control, especially with Florida Atlantic coming off playing in Lincoln last week. The Owls have been a solid ATS road performer in recent years and this line is extremely high. FAU is not an easy team to pass against so there may not be great opportunities for big plays in the air for quarterback Blake Sims, who was inconsistent during Week #1. This is still an inexperienced Alabama roster and this may not yet look like a championship contending team despite the high hopes.

#309 KANSAS ST @ #310 IOWA ST - 12:00 PM
The Cyclones fell out of the bowl picture last season and this will be a key game for the team to move to 1-1 after losing to a formidable North Dakota State team last Saturday. Kansas State had a much weaker opening matchup and with the Auburn game up next for the Wildcats, they could overlook a foe they beat 41-7 in 2013. Iowa State gave a then #6 ranked Kansas State team fits in Ames two years ago as the Wildcats escaped with a narrow win and the Cyclones know the importance of this confrontation in any bowl hopes. Kansas State has not been immune to an upset loss in recent years and the Cyclones should expect to be a much more productive offensive team in 2014 with nearly all of last season’s offense back.

#321 MISSOURI @ #322 TOLEDO - 12:00 PM
Toledo faced a formidable opening opponent in New Hampshire, a quality FCS team and the Rockets still posted big numbers. Toledo has a new quarterback but a lot of other pieces in place for a successful season as they hope to challenge Northern Illinois in the Mid-American Conference West. Beating one of the top teams in the South Eastern Conference would be a great boost for the program and last season the Rockets played the eventual SEC East champions very tough in a 15-point loss on the road. The yardage was nearly identical but a few Toledo turnovers were costly. Missouri won’t overlook the Rockets but they do have a bigger game with Central Florida up next and the Tigers lost a great deal of quality contributors from last year’s team, featuring only eight returning starters. The Tigers are not getting the support that a defending SEC East champion and Cotton Bowl winner would normally receive but the Tigers also did not impress in its Week #1 win over SDSU.

#339 USC @ #340 STANFORD - 3:30 PM
These teams play in opposing divisions in the Pac-12 but this game will go a long way to shaping the conference race. Stanford is not the favorite in the North despite besting Oregon and winning the conference title the past two seasons. Stanford has a tougher schedule this year and must go to Eugene so there is not much margin for error for the Cardinal this season even if they can upset the Ducks again. USC had a formidable opening game in a bowl rematch with Fresno State and getting win #1 takes a lot of pressure off for new head coach Steve Sarkisian. USC beat then #5 Stanford 20-17 in 2013 at home as the Trojans rallied late in the season under interim coach Ed Orgeron and while this is a talent-rich squad, revenge may be coming from a Stanford program that continues to impress. This is a pretty steep underdog spread for USC in any situation however.

#347 OLE MISS vs. #348 VANDERBILT - 4:30 PM
Mississippi and Vanderbilt played one of the most exciting games of the opening college weekend last season with Ole Miss escaping with a 39-35 win. This season’s game is in Nashville for the second straight year but it will not be at Vanderbilt Stadium. Both of these teams played on the opening Thursday night of college football with sloppy play the theme for both teams. Mississippi survived a great deal of penalties and three interceptions to still win but Vanderbilt was on the wrong side of a lopsided result with seven turnovers to blame. This is a huge game for Vanderbilt as the Commodores attempt to get back on track behind new head coach Derek Mason in a transition season. Mississippi has had two solid years under Hugh Freeze and this is a team that could breakthrough with an even better season in 2014 but moving up in the SEC West is not an easy task. This will be a second game away from home in a row for the Rebels and the early season schedule has been challenging. Mississippi has actually only won S/U in two of the last five meetings between these schools and this matchup may wind up closer than expected with misleading scores during Week #1.
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#351 MICHIGAN ST @ #352 OREGON - 6:30 PM
Both of these squads are among the dozen or so teams most feel have a legitimate shot at making the four-team playoff at the end of the season. The winner will obviously have a huge non-conference win on the resume and should the committee have any tough decisions to make between the Pac-12 and Big Ten this game may be a factor. Oregon is one of the national title favorites but that is a role the Ducks have been in before with no hardware to show for it. Michigan State is coming off a Rose Bowl title in which they went out west and soundly defeated a favored Stanford team that has had Oregon’s number. The Spartans have been moved into the Big Ten favorite role with Ohio State’s misfortune this summer but it is hard to see Michigan State being as strong as last season with some key pieces moving on. Michigan State cruised last week in a tougher than it sounds matchup with Jacksonville State. The Ducks have had a few injuries this summer as well and the Oregon defense has some holes to fill after a great deal of departures as well. Oregon has actually lost a home game in two of the last three seasons but this will be a tough venue for a team that really did not have any overly impressive road wins last season though a light Big Ten schedule plus losing in South Bend.

#359 ARIZONA ST @ #360 NEW MEXICO - 7:00 PM
The Sun Devils won 10 games in 2013 for the first time since 2007 but the season ended sourly with a lopsided bowl defeat. While a handful of transfers help the cause, Arizona State has among the fewest returning starters in the nation, with an especially green defense suiting up this season. Normally this has been a program that has struggled on the road but the Sun Devils are 6-4 S/U on the road under Todd Graham including going 4-1 ATS in the road favorite role the past two seasons. Taylor Kelly looked sharp during Week #1 to lead the Sun Devils to a convincing win over Weber State but next week’s confrontation at Colorado is more important and the Arizona State defense might have some issues against the deliberate rush attack from New Mexico. The Lobo defense has had great issues including allowing nearly 43 points per game last season however. New Mexico had turnover issues last Saturday in a tough opening defeat.

#363 E CAROLINA @ #364 S CAROLINA - 7:00 PM
The Gamecocks have had a bit of extra time to get ready for this contest playing on Thursday night last week but this is a difficult sandwich game in between two huge conference games. The Gamecocks will need that extra time to recover from a stunning blowout loss in which the former South Eastern Conference East favorites allowed nearly 700 yards. East Carolina was pummeled in Columbia early in the 2012 season but the Pirates have a handful of notable wins in recent years with upsets over NC State, Central Florida, and North Carolina in the four years since Ruffin McNeill took over in Greenville. After a 10-3 season it figures to be a step-back season for East Carolina making the leap to the American Athletic Conference with a very tough non-conference schedule as well but few programs have a better underdog record in the past decade. Shane Carden is an impressive quarterback and playing up-tempo is not something the current South Carolina team may be comfortable with, especially after Kenny Hill shredded the Gamecocks in his first start for the Aggies.

#365 SAN JOSE ST @ #366 AUBURN - 7:00 PM
The Tigers had a big Week #1 matchup with Arkansas and next on the schedule is a prominent national non-conference encounter with Kansas State. The Tigers took care of business against smaller school teams last season with three blowout wins and this will be a challenging environment for a San Jose State squad playing across the country. The Spartans may no longer have the great passing game they have had the past two seasons with David Fales and the defense really struggling against the run in 2013, a bad formula for hanging with Auburn. San Jose State should be a competent team in the Mountain West Conference again this season but this is too tough of a matchup and this game does not set-up in a great situation for the underdog.

#371 MICHIGAN @ #372 NOTRE DAME - 7:30 PM
Michigan played in the Sugar Bowl three seasons ago and Notre Dame was in the BCS championship two seasons ago but it seems longer than that as these former national powers feature grounded expectations this season. The underdog has enjoyed incredible success in this series historically but the favorite has won and covered narrowly each of the past two seasons with the host coming out on top. Recent suspensions hurt the cause on defense for an already thin Irish unit but Michigan has regressed statistically on offense and defense in each of the last two seasons under Brady Hoke. While Notre Dame faced a more credible opponent during Week #1, the opener was a big game for Michigan and this line will be shaded a bit low given the overwhelming underdog success in this series. Hoke has not produced a winning road record in any of his five seasons as a head coach at Michigan or San Diego State and the Irish might slip by.

#375 SAN DIEGO ST @ #376 N CAROLINA - 8:00 PM
North Carolina finished 2013 strong with Marquise Williams taking over at quarterback and the Tar Heels winning six of the final seven games of the season. The schedule played a prominent role in both the poor start and strong finish last year and with elevated expectations this season the Tar Heels feel a bit overvalued. Rocky Long has had three successful campaigns in San Diego even with a lot of new players on offense each season. The numbers have been pretty consistent for the Aztecs and this will be a big early season test for the team. San Diego State also finished the 2013 season strong with wins in eight of the final 10 after a 0-3 start. The Aztecs played four overtime games last season and also nearly upset Oregon State. Going up against a Pac-12 team would have more meaning for this team however and the long travel will be a challenge but the Tar Heels may be a fade team early in the season. San Diego State had good balance last Saturday in disposing of Northern Arizona, a ranked FCS team. North Carolina meanwhile played down the competition in a sloppy 56-29 win over Liberty. The Tar Heels got six turnovers but didn’t pull away until the second half in a shaky debut showing despite the final score.

#377 VIRGINIA TECH @ #378 OHIO ST - 8:00 PM
The injury to Heisman candidate Braxton Miller certainly changes the look of this game and a much more competitive contest is now expected. Virginia Tech has a new quarterback as well but most of the rest of the offense is back. The Hokies fell well short in their toughest games last season however with blowout losses to both Alabama and UCLA. Virginia Tech has a great underdog track record under Frank Beamer while Ohio State has been tough to go against in the home favorite role with strong historical numbers for both teams. This should now be a game that the Hokies really believe they can win in and a great Virginia Tech secondary will likely force the Buckeyes into a more one-dimensional attack. Ohio State should have better success stopping the run than the statistics from last week suggest but Virginia Tech was very sound against the run during Week #1 as well. Ohio State won by 17 last Saturday but it was a very misleading final and this will be a much tougher test for the new-look Buckeyes offense.

#379 OKLAHOMA @ #380 TULSA - 12:00 PM
This series often looks like a promising opportunity for Tulsa, taking on the marquee program in the state. It often ends poorly for the Hurricane however, including a 51-20 loss in Norman last season. An Oklahoma offense that didn’t play well the first two weeks broke out in that game and this season the Sooners should be very tough on both sides of the ball. Tulsa has a veteran defense but it was not a quality unit last year in an ugly 3-9 season to follow-up an 11-3 Conference USA championship season in 2012. This is a program in a favorable position to bounce back with better results in 2014 but this does not figure to be a matchup the team can expect to compete in. It won’t be a great home field edge with OU fans invading Chapman Stadium and in the big picture the other games on the schedule are much more important for the Hurricane. Oklahoma does have Tennessee on deck in the schedule but Tulsa is coming off one of the most fortunate wins ever and the run defense was terrible during Week #1.

#381 MEMPHIS @ #382 UCLA 10:00 PM
The Bruins will open the season with as much national fanfare as they have had in over a decade but this could be a tricky matchup on the schedule. The Bruins had to play across the country at Virginia last weekend and next on the schedule is a huge national game with Texas in Arlington. UCLA struggled offensively during Week #1 only to get bailed out by Virginia mistakes with three defensive touchdowns. Memphis was just 3-9 in 2013 but it was a very competitive team that returns much of the roster from last year. Memphis only lost twice by more than 14 points during the campaign and both of those defeats came at the end of the season after the goals of the season were dashed and with the team banged up. Memphis played Central Florida, Houston, and Louisville very tough in 2013 and the Tigers will be a formidable underdog.

Gridiron Trends - Week #2
•NORTH TEXAS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NORTH TEXAS 30.5, OPPONENT 18.4.

•ARKANSAS ST is 19-3 UNDER (+15.7 Units) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 19.3, OPPONENT 25.2.

•UAB is 9-25 (-67.1 Units) against the money line after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was UAB 23.4, OPPONENT 32.8.

•NEW MEXICO ST is 4-20 (-18.0 Units) against the 1rst half line in a road game where the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 since 1992.
The average score was NEW MEXICO ST 9.6, OPPONENT 27.6.

•E MICHIGAN is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 10.7, OPPONENT 28.0.

•PAUL JOHNSON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of GEORGIA TECH.
The average score was JOHNSON 35.7, OPPONENT 17.7.

•TERRY BOWDEN is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of AKRON.
The average score was BOWDEN 19.0, OPPONENT 27.8.

•MARK HUDSPETH is 10-1 (+16.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 37 points or more last game as the coach of LA LAFAYETTE.
The average score was HUDSPETH 32.4, OPPONENT 27.1.

•KIRK FERENTZ is 40-13 (+25.7 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of IOWA.
The average score was FERENTZ 16.6, OPPONENT 7.9.

•PAUL RHOADS is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of IOWA ST.
The average score was RHOADS 8.7, OPPONENT 10.9.

Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play On - A home team versus the money line (NEVADA) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion percentage of 62% or better, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season.
(38-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.4%, +37.2 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +113.6
The average score in these games was: Team 42.5, Opponent 17.7 (Average point differential = +24.8)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +3.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-5, +26.1 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (59-14, +21.2 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (73-22, +13 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Betting Recap - Week 1

College Football Week 1 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 67-14
Against the Spread 38-42-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 64-17
Against the Spread 41-39-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 20-23

The largest underdog to cash
Texas-El Paso (+10, ML +320) at New Mexico, 31-24

The largest favorite to cash
Stanford (-42.5) vs UC Davis, 45-0

Top 25 Notes

Eight of nine Top 10 teams won straight up, with South Carolina as the lone Top 10 team to face a setback. Top 10 teams also struggled against the spread, covering just three of nine games. Auburn, Michigan State and Ohio State were the three teams to not only win, but cover.

UCLA won 28-20 on the road, but looked ugly in doing so at Virginia, failing to cover as a 19-point road favorite.

Ohio State pulled away late to cover as 13 1/2-point favorites against Navy, 34-17.

No. 1 Florida State had its hands full in its 37-31 win against Oklahoma State, who was a solid 18-point underdog to cover.

Georgia erased a 21-14 deficit against Clemson, rattling off 31 unanswered points to easily win and cover at home at a nine-point favorite, 45-21.

Washington opened the Chris Petersen era with close shave win in Hawaii, 17-16. The Huskies were favored by 17 1/2 points, but they failed to even score that many.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

The Big Ten went 12-2 SU, and had a good weekend against the number, too. The Big Ten went 9-5 ATS in the opening weekend.

It was a high-scoring opening weekend for the SEC, with the 'over' going 9-3 (through Saturday)

In the SEC, the game between Idaho and Florida was terminated after a lengthy lightning delay. This game may or may not be rescheduled.

The ACC went 9-3 SU, with Clemson, Virginia and Wake Forest as the losing squads. The ACC collectively went 4-7-1 ATS, too.

The Big 12 went 5-3 SU (through Saturday), with a 4-4 ATS mark. The 'over' also connected in six of eight games.

Mid-Major Report

The Mid-American Conference saw some low-scoring results, with the 'under' going 7-5. The MAC was also just 5-8 ATS.

In the Mountain West, the 'under' went 9-2 (through Saturday)

Sun Belt teams were a perfect 6-0 SU at home, including Thursday's opening night win and cover for Louisiana-Monroe over Wake Forest (17-10).

Conference USA teams were just 7-6 SU and ATS, and they had the only FBS team to lose straight-up to an FCS foe. Florida International was actually a 2 1/2-point home dog to Bethune-Cookman, who won 14-12 in Miami.

Georgia Southern played its first official game as a member of FBS, and nearly pulled off the upset as a 22-point underdog at North Carolina State. The Golden Eagles fell just short, 24-23, in Raleigh.

Bad Beats

UCF-Penn State had just 13 points at halftime, but saw 37 combined points to push the total 'over' (44).

From Thursday night, Tulane (+6.5) never trailed in regulation or the first overtime, but allowed a touchdown in double-overtime and then failed to score, turning what looked like a sure cover into a loss.

With :37 left, Louisiana Tech struck for a touchdown to cut Oklahoma's lead to 48-16, earning the backdoor cover as a 34-point underdog.

Wisconsin entered the fourth quarter with a 24-13 lead, but LSU outscored the Badgers 15-0 to not only win and cover, but also push the total 'over' (49.5).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Pitt-Boston College haven't met in 10 years; both had walkover wins vs lame opponents last week. BC's only three returning starters on offense all play on OL; Eagles are 9-5 as home underdogs since '06. Pitt has four starters back on OL, but lost six starters on defense; they're 11-8 as road favorites since '06, 2-3 under Chryst- they're 7-4 vs spread in last eleven non-leaguie games. Eagles are 7-11 in their last 18 non-ACC games. Both teams have new QBs.

Washington State-Nevada haven't met since '05. Wazzu got beat 41-38 in Seattle by Rutgers last week, despite passing for 532 yards. Rutgers ran ball for 215 yards, won game with 3:24 left. Nevada has 10 starters back on defense; they're 5-1 as home underdogs since '10, 2-0 under Polian. Wolf Pack beat I-AA Southern Utah 28-19 last week (7-0 at half, total yardage was 547-380). Coogs have senior QB with 20 starts, 8 starters back on offense- they're 8-4 vs spread on road under Leach (1-1 as AF).