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Larry Ness' 10* Division Game of the Year (ended LY on 21-9 NFL 10* run!)
My 10* Division Game of the Year (AFC North) is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.
The Cincinnati Bengals have made the postseason in each of the last THREE seasons (coinciding with the arrival of Andy Dalton) but each year, Cincy’s “playoff stay” has been short-lived, losing the team’s first game each year. "We have to win one in the playoffs," owner Mike Brown said. "It sticks in our craw. First, we have to get the opportunity again. "That is a long, hard road. We have a tough schedule, we respect our opponents, we take nothing for granted. But in our hearts -- in my heart, too -- I think we stack up OK and we are anxious to prove we are going to be a successful team again."
The Bengals get a tough assignment right out of the gate, looking to end a four-game losing streak in Baltimore (last won 17-14 in 2009). Dalton's passing yards and touchdown totals have increased in each of his three seasons. His 33 TDs in 2013 trailed only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, and his 4,293 yards ranked seventh. However, he's completed 52.6 percent of his passes with three TDs, seven interceptions and been sacked 11 times while going 0-3 at Baltimore. His 52.2 passer rating in last year's loss was the second-lowest of his career.
Baltimore won the North in 2011 and 2012 and reached the playoffs in five straight seasons (won at least ONE game each playoff year!), prior to finishing 8-8 and missing the postseason a year after winning the Super Bowl "You look at last season -- it's over, it's said, it's done with, it didn't go the way we wanted," defensive end Chris Canty said. "We didn't end up in the postseason. Ultimately, we want to give ourselves an opportunity to compete for championships around here. We put that behind us, we try to focus on what we can do to improve, so we can be where we want to be at the end of this regular season."
The Ravens will open the season without RB Ray Rice, who earned a surprisingly short NFL-imposed two-game suspension for a domestic violence incident involving his then-fiancee. Though commissioner Roger Goodell recently admitted he was too lenient on Rice, the three-time Pro Bowl running back has been remorseful. A bigger issue for Baltimore is that when Rice returns, he'll need to bounce back from a 2013 season in which he dealt with a hip injury and rushed for 660 yards and four TDs, his lowest totals since recording 454 and no TDs as a rookie in 2008. Backup Bernard Pierce was not much better, gaining 436 yards and scoring twice, but will start Sunday. Baltimore's 3.1 yards per carry last season were the lowest in the NFL, and its 1,328 rushing yards were the worst in team history.
The expectation is that under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, QB Joe Flacco will concentrate more on shorter routes than the long balls he's known for. The hope is the new approach will help a questionable offensive line protect him and take the pressure off a running attack that averaged a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry last season (lowest in the NFL since San Diego averaged 3.0 yards in 2000). Baltimore's defense ranked 12th last season in both points and yards allowed but the rookie additions of linebacker C.J. Mosley and tackle Timmy Jernigan will provide help to tackle Haloti Ngata and linebackers Terrell Suggs and Daryl Smith.
A Super Bowl ‘hangover’ is not exactly something new, so the Ravens can be excused their 2013 season. However, unless the Ravens want to be playing second fiddle again to the Bengals (I think not), a win here looms large! Baltimore is 39-9 SU at home during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh and has won FIVE of its six openers. The one loss coming last year in Denver in a HUGE revenge game for the Broncos following the playoff loss from the previous season.
This game is basically a “pick-em” so it’s more than just a little significant to point out that Flacco has an 11-0 career home record in September, tied with Jay Schroeder for best among QBs in the Super Bowl era.
Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 10* NFL Week 1 Goin' Over Total (2-0 start in CFB!)
My 10* NFL Opening Week 10* Goin Over Total is on Buf/Chi Over at 1:00 ET.
Chicago’s 1st-year head coach Marc Trestman's focus was on offense in 2013 and the Bears improved from 29th to fifth in passing and 28th to No. 8 in total offense, even with Josh McCown appearing in eight games and starting five due to Jay Cutler's groin and ankle injuries. However, Cutler still posted a career-high 89.2 passer rating with his best completion percentage (63.1) since 2007 with Denver. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall each had Pro Bowl seasons, giving Chicago one of the best receiving tandems in the NFL. They totaled 189 receptions for 2,716 yards and 19 touchdowns, and Jeffery ranked second in the league among receivers with 1,526 yards from scrimmage. The Bears recently added former Jets and Steelers receiver Santonio Holmes to provide some depth. Matt Forte is clearly one of the NFL's top all-purpose backs, ranking second with a career-high 1,339 rushing yards and third with 1,933 yards from scrimmage.
However, after opening 3-0, Chicago was only able to finish 8-8. Green Bay’s 8-7-1 record was good enough to with the NFC North, as the Bears missed the playoffs for the SIXTH time in seven years. Chicago’s defense ranked 30th (out of 32 teams) overall, allowing 394.6 YPG. The team’s 31 sacks tied with Jacksonville for the fewest in the entire NFL plus the Bears allowed a league-high and club-record 2,583 rushing yards (161.4 YPG). The Bears have talked about how much the team's defense will improve in 2014 but while one doesn’t want to make too much of preseason results, it HAS to be noted that Chicago surrendered more yards per game than all but THREE teams during the preseason and were third-worst in scoring defense,.
Speaking of the preseason, Buffalo’s starters went 18 straight possessions without a TD in August until EJ Manuel's TD pass in the second half against Tampa Bay in the team’s third preseason game. Buffalo surprised many by taking Manuel 16th overall in 2013 and many are skeptical of his chances to be a quality QB in the NFL (consider me among those skeptics). “With EJ, obviously we're looking for him to progress and to keep coming along," head coach Doug Marrone said. "We're going to stick with him. I'm going to support him 110 percent. And we're going to get him better." The Bills finished 28th in the league with 193.9 passing YPG but were second with 144.2 rushing yards. C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson combined for 1,823 yards and 11 TDs on the ground.
The Bills took WR Sammy Watkins (Clemson) fourth overall in the 2014 draft. He is expected to give Manuel a go-to playmaker in the passing game but he's been slowed by bruised ribs. However, Watkins is expected to line up across from Mike Williams, acquired in an offseason trade with Tampa Bay. Buffalo’s team defense was a strength last year (Buffalo established a franchise record with 57 sacks in 2013) but the Bills also allowed 150 or more rushing yards SEVEN times (Forte should like that!). Chicago has shown the ability to move the ball against anyone, so expect just that here. I’m not sold on Manuel but the Chicago D should give him a chance to have a good game.
It’s hard to ignore the fact that 12 of Chicago’s 16 games went over in 2013 and the team’s final four games of last season averaged a whopping 67.0 points. Chicago has opened at home each of the last four seasons, winning each time. The Bears have averaged 31.7 PPG the last three years in those opening-season wins and I expect 30-plus points here as well. Considering Chicago’s defensive woes, that makes the play here, OVER!
My 10* Division Game of the Year (AFC North) is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.
The Cincinnati Bengals have made the postseason in each of the last THREE seasons (coinciding with the arrival of Andy Dalton) but each year, Cincy’s “playoff stay” has been short-lived, losing the team’s first game each year. "We have to win one in the playoffs," owner Mike Brown said. "It sticks in our craw. First, we have to get the opportunity again. "That is a long, hard road. We have a tough schedule, we respect our opponents, we take nothing for granted. But in our hearts -- in my heart, too -- I think we stack up OK and we are anxious to prove we are going to be a successful team again."
The Bengals get a tough assignment right out of the gate, looking to end a four-game losing streak in Baltimore (last won 17-14 in 2009). Dalton's passing yards and touchdown totals have increased in each of his three seasons. His 33 TDs in 2013 trailed only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, and his 4,293 yards ranked seventh. However, he's completed 52.6 percent of his passes with three TDs, seven interceptions and been sacked 11 times while going 0-3 at Baltimore. His 52.2 passer rating in last year's loss was the second-lowest of his career.
Baltimore won the North in 2011 and 2012 and reached the playoffs in five straight seasons (won at least ONE game each playoff year!), prior to finishing 8-8 and missing the postseason a year after winning the Super Bowl "You look at last season -- it's over, it's said, it's done with, it didn't go the way we wanted," defensive end Chris Canty said. "We didn't end up in the postseason. Ultimately, we want to give ourselves an opportunity to compete for championships around here. We put that behind us, we try to focus on what we can do to improve, so we can be where we want to be at the end of this regular season."
The Ravens will open the season without RB Ray Rice, who earned a surprisingly short NFL-imposed two-game suspension for a domestic violence incident involving his then-fiancee. Though commissioner Roger Goodell recently admitted he was too lenient on Rice, the three-time Pro Bowl running back has been remorseful. A bigger issue for Baltimore is that when Rice returns, he'll need to bounce back from a 2013 season in which he dealt with a hip injury and rushed for 660 yards and four TDs, his lowest totals since recording 454 and no TDs as a rookie in 2008. Backup Bernard Pierce was not much better, gaining 436 yards and scoring twice, but will start Sunday. Baltimore's 3.1 yards per carry last season were the lowest in the NFL, and its 1,328 rushing yards were the worst in team history.
The expectation is that under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, QB Joe Flacco will concentrate more on shorter routes than the long balls he's known for. The hope is the new approach will help a questionable offensive line protect him and take the pressure off a running attack that averaged a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry last season (lowest in the NFL since San Diego averaged 3.0 yards in 2000). Baltimore's defense ranked 12th last season in both points and yards allowed but the rookie additions of linebacker C.J. Mosley and tackle Timmy Jernigan will provide help to tackle Haloti Ngata and linebackers Terrell Suggs and Daryl Smith.
A Super Bowl ‘hangover’ is not exactly something new, so the Ravens can be excused their 2013 season. However, unless the Ravens want to be playing second fiddle again to the Bengals (I think not), a win here looms large! Baltimore is 39-9 SU at home during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh and has won FIVE of its six openers. The one loss coming last year in Denver in a HUGE revenge game for the Broncos following the playoff loss from the previous season.
This game is basically a “pick-em” so it’s more than just a little significant to point out that Flacco has an 11-0 career home record in September, tied with Jay Schroeder for best among QBs in the Super Bowl era.
Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 10* NFL Week 1 Goin' Over Total (2-0 start in CFB!)
My 10* NFL Opening Week 10* Goin Over Total is on Buf/Chi Over at 1:00 ET.
Chicago’s 1st-year head coach Marc Trestman's focus was on offense in 2013 and the Bears improved from 29th to fifth in passing and 28th to No. 8 in total offense, even with Josh McCown appearing in eight games and starting five due to Jay Cutler's groin and ankle injuries. However, Cutler still posted a career-high 89.2 passer rating with his best completion percentage (63.1) since 2007 with Denver. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall each had Pro Bowl seasons, giving Chicago one of the best receiving tandems in the NFL. They totaled 189 receptions for 2,716 yards and 19 touchdowns, and Jeffery ranked second in the league among receivers with 1,526 yards from scrimmage. The Bears recently added former Jets and Steelers receiver Santonio Holmes to provide some depth. Matt Forte is clearly one of the NFL's top all-purpose backs, ranking second with a career-high 1,339 rushing yards and third with 1,933 yards from scrimmage.
However, after opening 3-0, Chicago was only able to finish 8-8. Green Bay’s 8-7-1 record was good enough to with the NFC North, as the Bears missed the playoffs for the SIXTH time in seven years. Chicago’s defense ranked 30th (out of 32 teams) overall, allowing 394.6 YPG. The team’s 31 sacks tied with Jacksonville for the fewest in the entire NFL plus the Bears allowed a league-high and club-record 2,583 rushing yards (161.4 YPG). The Bears have talked about how much the team's defense will improve in 2014 but while one doesn’t want to make too much of preseason results, it HAS to be noted that Chicago surrendered more yards per game than all but THREE teams during the preseason and were third-worst in scoring defense,.
Speaking of the preseason, Buffalo’s starters went 18 straight possessions without a TD in August until EJ Manuel's TD pass in the second half against Tampa Bay in the team’s third preseason game. Buffalo surprised many by taking Manuel 16th overall in 2013 and many are skeptical of his chances to be a quality QB in the NFL (consider me among those skeptics). “With EJ, obviously we're looking for him to progress and to keep coming along," head coach Doug Marrone said. "We're going to stick with him. I'm going to support him 110 percent. And we're going to get him better." The Bills finished 28th in the league with 193.9 passing YPG but were second with 144.2 rushing yards. C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson combined for 1,823 yards and 11 TDs on the ground.
The Bills took WR Sammy Watkins (Clemson) fourth overall in the 2014 draft. He is expected to give Manuel a go-to playmaker in the passing game but he's been slowed by bruised ribs. However, Watkins is expected to line up across from Mike Williams, acquired in an offseason trade with Tampa Bay. Buffalo’s team defense was a strength last year (Buffalo established a franchise record with 57 sacks in 2013) but the Bills also allowed 150 or more rushing yards SEVEN times (Forte should like that!). Chicago has shown the ability to move the ball against anyone, so expect just that here. I’m not sold on Manuel but the Chicago D should give him a chance to have a good game.
It’s hard to ignore the fact that 12 of Chicago’s 16 games went over in 2013 and the team’s final four games of last season averaged a whopping 67.0 points. Chicago has opened at home each of the last four seasons, winning each time. The Bears have averaged 31.7 PPG the last three years in those opening-season wins and I expect 30-plus points here as well. Considering Chicago’s defensive woes, that makes the play here, OVER!
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