9-18-14

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Auburn faces tough road test

Auburn Tigers (2-0) at Kansas State Wildcats (2-0)
Line & Total: Auburn -10, Total: 66

No. 5 Auburn travels to No. 20 Kansas State for a Thursday night showdown as each program attempts to stay undefeated through three games.

The Tigers have opened the season in usual fashion, dominating over their first two contests as they have outscored their opponents 104-34. Their top-10 rushing attack went for an amazing 358 yards (7.2 YPC) in the 59-13 victory over San Jose State as strong 34-point favorites in their last contest. Overall in the first two games, Auburn has scored 12 offensive touchdowns with nine of them coming on the ground.

Kansas State has not been quite as dominant in its two victories, but also favors running the ball over passing, ranking 32nd in the nation at 236.0 rushing YPG. Most recently, the Wildcats pulled out a tight game as 12-point favorites at Iowa State, shutting them out in the second half (12-0) and finishing with a 32-28 win. A score with 68 seconds left was the winning moment as they outgained their opponent 471-319, which included 232 yards (5.7 YPC) on the ground.

These programs have not met since 2007 when Auburn hosted the Wildcats and held serve in its home stadium with a 23-13 victory, but failing to cover the 13.5-point spread. This year’s contest will prove much different since the two teams combined for just 89 yards of rushing and five turnovers in that meeting seven years ago.

Bettors should take notice that the Tigers are an amazing 14-2 ATS in all lined games over the past two seasons, while Kansas State is 65-34 ATS (66%) after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers since 1992.

Auburn star WR Sammie Coates (knee) is the big injury to watch for in this contest, but he is considered probable to play on Thursday. Despite losing stud HB Tre Mason to the NFL, the Tigers have maintained a tremendous ground game that ranks 7th in the FBS with 330 rushing YPG, and they have totaled 544 YPG (16th in nation) and 52.0 PPG (7th in FBS). QB Nick Marshall (151 yards, 1 TD) missed the first half of the opening contest due to suspension and has connected on 56% of his attempts while averaging a meager 6.0 YPA through the air over six quarters since. What he fails to do through the air, he make up for with his legs, as Marshall has rushed for 122 yards (6.4 YPC) and two touchdowns in his first two games, including his103 yards (9.4 YPC) and a score against San Jose State.

He is certainly not the only great runner on the team with senior HB Cameron Artis-Payne (289 yards, 4 TD) joining him in the backfield. Artis-Payne has gone for over 110 yards in each of the team’s contests and made it into the end zone three times in their last victory. HB Corey Grant (176 yards, 1 TD) has also been a vital part of the offense with 10 attempts in each game.

WR D’haquille Williams has been the clear-cut number No. 1 receiver with Sammie Coates down, as he has nine more receptions (13) than any other ball catcher while going for 214 yards (16.5 avg) and a touchdown. The expected return of Coates would be huge, as he had 902 receiving yards (21.5 avg) and seven scores in 2013.

The defense for Auburn has allowed 17.0 PPG and 323.5 YPG to its opponents thus far. LB Cassanova McKinzy (16 tackles, 1 sack) leads a solid linebacker corps which should give any team’s offense trouble. The Kansas State offense basically splits its yardage evenly between passing (239 YPG) and rushing (236 YPG) in dropping 43.5 PPG on opponents so far. QB Jake Waters (462 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) has done plenty through the air in the first two contests, hitting on 61.4% of his passes (8.1 YPA) and getting at least 220 yards in each game. Like Marshall, Waters is a multi-dimensional offensive player and has schooled defenses for 193 yards (5.2 YPC) and four rushing touchdowns thus far.

He has 16 more rushing attempts than the next best running back, HB Charles Jones, who has rumbled for 130 yards (6.2 YPC) and four touchdowns. Six receivers on the Wildcats have between four and seven receptions with WR Tyler Lockett (145 yards, 1 TD) showing through as the best. He is averaging a solid 20.7 yards per reception and is no stranger to the spotlight after a 2013 season in which he tallied 1,262 yards (15.6 avg) and 11 touchdowns.

KSU has allowed only 22.0 PPG and 306.5 YPG in its two wins, but the defense will have a tough task ahead with Auburn. Wildcats star LB Jonathan Truman (15 tackles) hopes to lead his team to an upset.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Auburn at Kansas State
By Joe Nelson

In what will be the last week of mostly non-conference action, the Thursday night college football game this week presents an enticing matchup between Auburn and Kansas State. Gus Malzahn has enjoyed a legendary start to his coaching career while Bill Snyder is one of the all-time greats as two coaches that are tough to go-against, face off to kick off the fourth week of the season.

Match-up: Auburn Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Auburn -8½
Last Meeting: 2007, Auburn (-13½) 24-13 at Auburn

This will be a challenging wagering matchup as both coaches generally receive tremendous respect. Gus Malzahn and Auburn have now covered in 13 consecutive games and in two-plus seasons as a head coach at Arkansas State and now at Auburn, Malzahn is 23-5 S/U and 22-6 ATS. It has not been without some close calls as Auburn had more than a few fortunate wins last season and even the opening win over Arkansas this season featured a misleading 45-21 final as the game was tied at halftime. Many projected a bit of a step-back season for Auburn this year not due to a lack of talent, but due to a daunting schedule that features five challenging road games, with this week’s non-conference game being the first of those big tests.

Kansas State is 2-0 S/U this season but 0-2 ATS, actually needing an incredible comeback in the last game to beat Iowa State on the road. Bill Snyder is one of the most respected head coaches in the business with 180 victories in now 22+ seasons and since he returned to the sidelines in 2009 Kansas State is 43-21 S/U and an impressive 38-24-1 ATS. As an underdog, Snyder and Kansas State are on a 20-8 ATS run since 2009, including going 7-3 ATS as a home underdog. The Kansas State program consistently seems to outperform expectations and seasoned bettors generally need a very good reason to try to beat the Wildcats in a wager.

In an age of college football where most big non-conference matches have been shipped out to NFL stadiums for bigger payouts, this will be a rare chance for a home crowd to help its team spring a major upset. In the new era of the playoff system, the comparisons between conferences will be more important and in many ways this matchup is just as much Big XII vs. SEC as it is Kansas State vs. Auburn.

Many feel that the Big XII is vulnerable to being left out of the equation at the end of the year as it is a very difficult league to navigate undefeated with a nine-game conference schedule where everyone plays everyone and the league lacks a conference championship game for a late boost for the champion. A win by Kansas State here could go a long way for the selection committee at the end of the season, even if it is not Kansas State as the team reaping the benefit. A win by Auburn could help solidify the popular belief that the SEC will deserve two of the four teams in the playoff field.

Kansas State expects a record crowd and while Snyder Stadium is much smaller than most of the SEC venues (around 53,000 will be expected) where Auburn routinely plays, but it is recognized as one of the toughest places to play in the Big XII. Kansas State did lose S/U at home three times last season, but Snyder is 130-31-1 S/U at home since 1990.

It is no secret that for both teams running the ball is the key to success. Auburn has played a little bit tougher schedule through two games and has averaged 6.7 yards per rush while posting 330 yard per game. Kansas State has averaged 5.1 yards per rush for 236 yards per game. Both teams have been stout defensively against the run with Kansas State allowing just 3.0 yards per rush and Auburn allowing only 2.9 yards per rush. Whichever team controls the line of scrimmage and the ground game should emerge victorious.

Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters has already rushed for 193 yards this season after rushing for just 312 yards last season. His passing numbers are on a nearly identical pace to last season as he has completed 61 percent with a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but his numbers were far better against Stephen F. Austin than they were against Iowa State. Malzahn sent a clear message to his team as quarterback Nick Marshall did not play in the first half of the opener for disciplinary reasons, even with Auburn struggling to pull away from Arkansas. Marshall rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and he has just 14 completions so far in 2014 as Auburn has not been in many passing situations.

Kansas State was only a home underdog once last season, hosting Baylor in a game which Kansas State lost by 10 but covered the 17-point underdog spread. Prior to that, the Wildcats had not been a home underdog since 2011 and they are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2011, winning outright three times. Auburn was 2-0 as a road favorite last season winning and covering in that role at Arkansas and at Tennessee last season.

These teams did face off in 2007 to open the season with Auburn winning 23-13 at home, although Kansas State covered the spread just short of two touchdowns. That game featured Ron Prince coaching Kansas State and Tommy Tuberville coaching Auburn in what seems like ancient history. NFL stars Ben Tate and Jordy Nelson matched up for the offenses in that game as well.

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Auburn red-hot ATS after covering in previous game
Stephen Campbell

The No. 5 ranked Auburn Tigers visit No. 20 Kansas State to kick off Week 4 college football action Thursday evening.

After covering the spread in their last matchup - a 59-13 pounding of San Jose State in Week 2 - trends are pointing in a positive direction for spread bettors backing Auburn again this week.

In their last 11 games following an ATS win, the Tigers are a perfect 11-0 against the spread. Auburn is currently 8.5-point road faves with a total of 64.5 for the matchup.

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Game of the Day: Auburn at Kansas State

Auburn Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats (+8.5, 65.5)

As a member of the Southeastern Conference, Auburn faces plenty of elite opponents - both at home and on the road. However, the Tigers tend to play it safe when it comes to their non-conference schedule, as Thursday's matchup against Kansas State will mark the first time since 2002 that Auburn is playing a true road game against a ranked, non-conference opponent. The fifth-ranked Tigers have put up 104 points through two games thanks to a dominant rushing attack, while the 20th-ranked Wildcats know they need to improve upon their performance in Week 2.

“It’s going to take a heck of a lot of work,” Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters said, “and a heck of a lot of preparation and going out and executing (to beat Auburn). It is going to be a tough game, no matter what. We will be fortunate to come out on top. If we do, it will be a game that puts a stamp on the start of the season, but we have a lot of work still to do.” The Wildcats needed 19 unanswered points to defeat Iowa State 32-28 their last time out, while the Tigers dismantled San Jose State 59-13 but will have their work cut out for them against coach Bill Snyder's crew. "That's one of the toughest places to play," Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said. "They've got an outstanding coach who's a legend. You can just watch them on film and they're very, very good at what they do. ... This will be our first road test. We're going on the road to a top 20 team, and any time you go on the road (against) a top 20, you better have your 'A' game. That's our challenge."

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened as 9-point road faves and have been bet as high as -10, but have settled back down below the opening number and are now listed at Auburn -8.5. The Total opened at 66 and is down slightly to 65.5.

INJURY REPORT: Auburn - WR Sammie Coats (questionable Thursday, leg). Kansas State - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with a 17 percent chance of rain and temperatures will be in the mid 70s around kickoff. There will also be an eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from east to west.

POWER RANKINGS: Auburn (-23.5) - Kansas State (-14) + home field (-3) = Kansas State (+6.5)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Auburn is currently a 9-point favorite over home team Kansas State. Despite the fact that they are 'Auburn' and the clear public favorite and that the line moved from 8.5 to 9 this week, I think bettors are still somewhat apprehensive in jumping on No. 5 team in the country in their first road game. Last year they struggled in their first road game against LSU, losing 35-21. We're still going to see 65 to 70 percent of the action come in on Auburn, but that's less than it would have been in year's past." - Oddsmaker.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "When Auburn meets Kansas State on Thursday night, we'll see two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the country in Nick Marshall and Jake Waters. Marshall is off to a slow start, with a 56 percent completion rate and only 151 passing yards with one touchdown in two games. Waters on the other hand put up huge numbers against Iowa State last week (239 passing yards, 138 rushing yards, 2 TDs)." - Jesse Schule.

ABOUT AUBURN (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U): The Tigers had 358 rushing yards against San Jose State and rank seventh nationally with 330 per game while running for at least 200 in 13 consecutive contests. Quarterback Nick Marshall has not had to do much through the first two weeks, but he still has guided Auburn to 12 straight games of at least 30 points - a school record. Defensively, the Tigers registered 10 tackles for loss against San Jose State, including three by defensive tackle Montravius Adams.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (2-0, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Following a 39-point win over Stephen F. Austin in Week 1, the Wildcats needed a second-half rally that included two rushing touchdowns by Waters - who finished with a career-high 138 yards on the ground - to defeat the Cyclones. Charles Jones also ran for a pair of scores as Kansas State recorded its first come-from-behind victory since 2011. The Wildcats continue to receive strong play from senior wideout Tyler Lockett, who racked up 136 receiving yards against Iowa State and needs one more 100-yard effort to break the school record of 10 that he currently shares with Jordy Nelson (2005-07) and Quincy Morgan (1999-2000).

TRENDS:

* Auburn is 11-0 in its last 11 games following an ATS win.
* Kansas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 6-1 in Auburn's last seven games overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Kansas State's last 11 games following a bye week.

CONSENSUS: Almost 59 percent of wagers are backing Auburn at -8.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Auburn is 8-2 as a favorite under Malzahn, 2-0 on road; they ran ball for 660 yards in opening wins/covers vs Arkansas/San Jose State. Tigers are 4-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Kansas State has senior QB with 15 starts, only two starters back on OL; Snyder is 10-4 in last 14 games as a home underdog- they held off Iowa State 32-28 in conference opener last game. Auburn has four starters back on OL but start three sophs there. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-6 vs spread, 2-0 on road; Big X underdogs are 3-2, 1-1 at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Game Picks

Auburn at Kansas State

The Tigers head to Kansas State on Thursday night to take on the Wildcats (2-0 SU) and come into the contest with an 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games against a team with a winning SU record. Auburn is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-8 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (9/17)

Game 303-304: Auburn at Kansas State (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 109.210; Kansas State 96.921 Dunkel Line: Auburn by 12 1/2; 69 Vegas Line: Auburn by 8 1/2; 65 Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-8 1/2); Over

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Buccaneers at Falcons
By Kevin Rogers

The Falcons and Buccaneers usually play close games when they get together as Atlanta is listed as a favorite for the first time this season, while Tampa Bay is receiving points for the first time in three games. Atlanta can move to 2-0 in the division with a victory after knocking off New Orleans in overtime back in Week 1 as a three-point home underdog, but the Falcons need to bounce back after falling behind early in last week’s loss at Cincinnati.

The defense has been lit up through two weeks, as the Falcons gave up 472 yards in a 24-10 defeat to the Bengals as five-point ‘dogs, one game after allowing 472 yards in a 33-30 triumph over New Orleans. Atlanta’s lone touchdown at Cincinnati came in the fourth quarter trailing, 24-3, while Matt Ryan tossed three interceptions in the defeat. The Falcons dropped to 3-6 ATS since the start of last season as a road underdog, while winning just once in this span with an overtime victory over the Bills in Toronto.

Tampa Bay’s offense has put up just 31 points in two home losses to Carolina and St. Louis. The Bucs did limit these two teams to a combined 39 points, but they did face backup quarterbacks Derek Anderson and rookie Austin Davis. In last week’s 19-17 home setback to the Rams, Tampa Bay limited St. Louis to just one touchdown and four field goals, but the final field goal by Greg Zuerlein with 38 second left dropped Tampa Bay to 0-2. The Bucs cashed the ‘under’ of 37 ½, but failed to cover as four-point favorites.

Atlanta has won seven of the past 10 meetings with Tampa Bay, but three of those games came in Week 17 of relatively meaningless action. Last season, the Falcons managed a cover as six-point home favorites in a 31-23 victory, even though Atlanta rushed 18 times for only 18 yards. Since Mike Smith took over as head coach of the Falcons in 2008, Atlanta owns a 2-4 ATS record at home against Tampa Bay.

In the second meeting in 2013, the Bucs blew out the Falcons, 41-28 as two-point home favorites. Bobby Rainey ran all over the Atlanta defense for 163 yards and two touchdowns, filling in for the injured Doug Martin. The Falcons couldn’t slow down Vincent Jackson, who hauled in 165 yards receiving, as the Tampa Bay receiver picked up 138 yards and two scores in the first meeting at the Georgia Dome.

Now the Falcons are back in the favorite role, this team is just 6-8 ATS the last two seasons when laying points at the Georgia Dome. In this span, Atlanta owns a 5-2 ATS record at home against division foes, but the last three covers all came in the underdog role. Tampa Bay dropped seven of eight games away from Raymond James Stadium last season, while covering just twice, which includes as a 16 ½-point underdog at Seattle in a three-point setback.

In Lovie Smith’s final two seasons in Chicago (2011-12), the head coach put together a 3-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS record as a road underdog. Smith is in this role for the first time this season, as the Buccaneers have dropped nine straight September games since 2012, while covering just three times in this span.

The Bucs hope to get Martin back this week to strengthen the running back position after he missed last week’s loss with a knee injury. Rainey took care of business against the Rams with 144 yards rushing in Martin’s place and has already proven he can rip through the Falcons’ defense with his home performance last season. Roddy White didn’t practice on Tuesday for the Falcons after suffering a hamstring injury at Cincinnati, but the Falcons’ standout receiver is listed as probable for Thursday.

The Falcons are listed as 6 ½-point home favorites, as that number could be bumped up to seven by Thursday night. The total is set between 44 ½ and 45 depending on where you shop as that number has stayed pretty constant the whole week. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday Night Football betting preview: Buccaneers at Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 44.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened the season with a pair of narrow home losses and now face the prospect of playing the next three on the road, beginning with Thursday night's matchup against the NFC South-rival Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers are trying to avoid a repeat of last season's disastrous campaign, when they opened with eight straight setbacks. "It's trying to take a deep breath, see the big picture," quarterback Josh McCown said. "We want to win right now."

Tampa Bay's injury-riddled defense will have to find a way to contain Matt Ryan and Atlanta's potent offense, which rolled up 37 points in a season-opening win versus New Orleans before coming back to earth in last week's 24-10 loss at Cincinnati. "When you turn the ball over three times, you're not going to win," Ryan said. "I have to be better." The Falcons, who went 4-12 last season and wound up tied with the Buccaneers for last place in the division, have split the past six meetings against Tampa Bay.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 5.5-point home favorites and were bet as high as -7, before settling back down at -6. The total has held steady at 44.5 points.

INJURY REPORT: Tampa Bay - RB Doug Martin (questionable Thursday, knee), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkis (questionable Thursday, ankle), DE Michael Johnson (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT Gerald McCoy (out Thursday, hand). Atlanta - WR Roddy White (questionable Thursday, hamstring), OT Jake Matthews (questionable Thursday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

POWER RANKINGS: Buccaneers (+4.25) - Atlanta (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons (-8.75)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Falcons as 5.5-point favorites last week in our advanced lines, and they immediately went to -6 as we took a sharp bet on the Falcons at -5.5. With money still pouring in on Atlanta, we had to go to -7 (-105) on Monday. We have been bouncing between -6 and -6.5 all week while adjusting the juice as we go before finally settling on -6.5. Since then we have been getting good two way action but we still need the Bucs to cover as Atlanta is dominating the action with 81 percent on spread bets and 76 on the moneyline. The Over 45-point total is seeing 78 percent up to this point." - Michael Stewart.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Both of these division rivals enter this contest off disappointing efforts with each of the coach Smith’s looking to right the ship. The Falcons have been money in the bank at home in games off a pair of losses under Mike Smith, going 9-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, Lovie Smith needs this game like blood, hoping to avoid a 0-3 start. Lovie’s 7-1 against the spread career mark in division games off two losses-exact is a strong counter." - Marc Lawrence.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Tampa Bay has been decimated by injuries and is expected to be without two more starters on defense after Pro Bowl tackle Gerald McCoy (broken hand) and middle linebacker Mason Foster (dislocated shoulder) were hurt last week. Starting running back Doug Martin returned to practice Tuesday after missing Sunday's game with a knee injury, but backup Bobby Rainey rushed for 144 yards in his absence. The passing game ranks 31st in the league and has yet to click under McCown, who has three interceptions versus two TDs and is averaging 181 yards per contest. The Buccaneers will be hard-pressed to slow down Ryan and company after facing a pair of lightweight passing attacks in the first two weeks.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Ryan tossed three scoring passes and set a franchise record with 448 yards passing in a come-from-behind win over New Orleans, but he was picked off three times and failed go get the ball in the end zone until the fourth quarter at Cincinnati. Julio Jones appears fully recovered from the foot injury that cut short his 2013 season, snatching 14 receptions for 204 yards and a TD, but fellow wideout Roddy White missed practice on Tuesday due to a hamstring injury to put his availability in doubt. While Steven Jackson has rushed for only 98 yards in the first two contests, a more pressing concern is a defense that ranks dead last in the league - allowing an average total of 472 yards.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four Thursday night games.
* Over is 4-0 in Falcons last four home games versus a team with a losing road record.

CONSENSUS: A big 69 percent of wagers are backing the Falcons at -6 in this division showdown.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bucs look for first victory

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

Line and Total: Atlanta -6.5, Total: 45

The Buccaneers look to avoid an 0-3 start when they head to Georgia Dome on Thursday night to take on the Falcons.

Tampa Bay had a home matchup with the Rams on Sunday, but was unable to come away with a much-needed victory early in the season. The Bucs lost 19-17 despite being 4.5-point home favorites, and have now lost five straight games (SU and ATS) dating to last season. The Falcons, on the other hand, were 5.5-point underdogs in Cincinnati and were blown out 24-10 in a game where both their offense and defense really struggled.

Atlanta will need to capitalize on the mistakes of Tampa Bay QB Josh McCown, who has already thrown three interceptions this season. The Buccaneers, however, will likely try to slow this game down, as they know they have no chance of beating the Falcons in a fast-paced shootout.

These clubs have split the season series in each of the past three years, and while Atlanta is 5-1 SU in the past six home meetings in this series, Tampa Bay is 10-4 ATS in its past 14 visits to Georgia Dome. Mike Smith is 9-2 ATS in September home games as the coach of the Falcons, and he is also 13-4 ATS after a double-digit loss by 10.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 11 Falcons home games.

The Bucs could be without some key defensive players in this game with DT Gerald McCoy (hand), LB Mason Foster (shoulder), S Bradley McDougald and DE Michael Johnson (ankle) all questionable, but the good news is that star RB Doug Martin (knee) is expected to return after a one-game absence. Falcons stud OT Jake Matthews (ankle) has been upgraded to probable, as have starting WRs Roddy White (hamstring) and Julio Jones (ankle).

The Buccaneers have had a very disappointing start to their season. They first lost to a Cam Newton-less Panthers team and were then unable to defeat a Rams squad that was starting third-stringer Austin Davis at quarterback. QB Josh McCown has been the victim of playing behind a shaky offensive line. He’s been sacked only four times, but has had little time to get rid of the ball and it’s showing. McCown was 16-of-21 for 179 yards and an interception in the loss to St. Louis, but did rush for two touchdowns.

RB Bobby Rainey started in place of the injured RB Doug Martin and performed extremely well, carrying the football 22 times for 144 yards while also catching three passes for 30 yards. Regardless of whether or not Martin returns in Week 3, Rainey has earned himself more touches with last week's performance, but Martin is still the main ball carrier who has loved visiting Georgia Dome with 189 rushing yards on 4.9 YPC in his two visits to Atlanta. Tampa Bay must get the running game going against the Falcons, as the club is coming off a game in which it allowed 170 yards on the ground to the Bengals.

The Bucs, however, will have trouble against Matt Ryan’s offense. Tampa Bay has allowed 220.5 yards per game through the air this season, but that was against Derek Anderson and Austin Davis. Now they face a legitimate passer and will have to do a better job of covering receivers.

The Falcons went into Cincinnati in Week 2 and came away with a disappointing loss. The defense for this team has already struggled, allowing 317.5 yards per game through the air (31st in NFL) and 154.5 YPG on the ground this year. Following up a 448-yard and three-touchdown performance against the Saints, QB Matt Ryan was horrendous against the Bengals, going 24-of-44 for 231 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions.

Luckily he’ll get to face a Tampa Bay defense that made Austin Davis look like a legitimate NFL starter, and Ryan has had plenty of success in this series, going 8-4 SU (but 4-7-1 ATS), including a 5-1 SU mark at home. In the past four home starts versus Tampa Bay, Ryan has completed 68% of his passes for 213 YPG, 7 TD and 0 INT.

WR Julio Jones should have no trouble getting open as he is capable of doing so against any team in the league, and has done so many times versus Tampa Bay. In four career meetings in this divisional matchup, he has 394 receiving yards and 3 TD, and Jones caught seven passes for 88 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals.

Atlanta would be wise to get its running backs more involved in the offensive game plan. RB Steven Jackson is the main ball carrier, but has just 23 rushes for 98 yards in two games. If the Falcons can make opponents respect their running game more, it will open up the field for Ryan to make more plays.

The Tampa Bay defense has had issues this season, but if the Falcons are too predictable, they’ll pay for it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Bucs (0-2) @ Falcons (1-1) -- Tampa Bay lost first two home games despite facing teams playing backup QBs; they're 9-13 in last 22 games as road dog- LSmith had 8-15-1 mark in his last 24 games as AU with Bears. Falcons are 23-14-1 as favorite at home under MSmith, 8-5-1 in division play. Teams split season series last three years, after Falcons had won five in row before that; Bucs lost five of last six visits here, with three of last four losses here by 6+ points. There were 149 first downs via penalty in Weeks 1-2; Bucs were only team not to allow one, but they also have only one takeaway (-3), unusual for a Lovie-coached team. Atlanta has five TDs, all on drives of 77+ yards; defense has one takeaway, not creating short field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

The Buccaneers head to Atlanta on Thursday night to face a Falcons team that is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 Thursday games. Atlanta is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/17)

Game 301-302: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (8:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 125.604; Atlanta 133.983 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over

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Umpire Joe West suspended one game by MLB
Stephen Campbell

Major League Baseball umpire Joe West has been suspended one game without pay for his part in an incident with Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon that occurred in Sunday's Philadelphia-Miami matchup.

After Papelbon blew a save in the top of the ninth inning, he made a "lewd gesture" to the hometown Phillies fans on his way to the dugout after getting booed from the crowd. West noticed this right away and got in the face of Papelbon, physically grabbing the closer's jersey in the process - a strict violation of MLB rules.

MLB Executive Vice President Joe Torre stated "Joe knows that an umpire cannot initiate contact with a player just as a player cannot initiate physical contact with an umpire."

West has been one of the top Over umpires in baseball this season, as 19 of 27 games the ump has been behind the plate have gone above the total.

Papelbon was hit with a seven game suspension on Monday for his actions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB roundup: Marlins' Stanton to stay sidelined
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The Miami Marlins determined Wednesday that National League home run leader Giancarlo Stanton will not play again this season after taking a pitch to the face last week.

Stanton is making good progress in his recovery from facial fractures and lacerations that he sustained Sept. 11 when he was hit by a fastball from Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Mike Fiers. But the team wants to err on the side of caution and allow him to fully recover.

Stanton visited with doctors all day Tuesday, five days after he suffered facial fractures and dental damage when he was hit in the face. Despite the frightening incident -- Stanton bled so profusely on the Miller Park field that it took 10 minutes to clean it up -- Stanton had said he hoped to play again this season.

At the time he got hurt, Stanton was the front-runner in the National League MVP race. He is hitting .288 and still leads the league in homers (37) while ranking second in RBIs (105).


---Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman was suspended for six games and fined an undisclosed amount by Major League Baseball on Wednesday after intentionally throwing a pitch near the head of Baltimore's Caleb Joseph.

Stroman appealed the suspension, which was to begin Wednesday night when the Orioles played the Blue Jays but will be delayed until he receives a hearing.

Stroman hit Joseph in the bottom of the sixth inning during a game on Monday night at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.


---San Francisco Giants center fielder Angel Pagan was given an MRI on his lower back Wednesday morning, manager Bruce Bochy said.

"Basically, he's inflamed that nerve again and we have to get it calmed down," Bochy said. "We'll take a look at the MRI and see where we're at."

Pagan missed the Arizona series with the injury and has played only 95 games this season because of back and wrist injuries.


---Major League Baseball suspended umpire Joe West for one game without pay on Wednesday for grabbing the jersey of Philadelphia Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon.

West will serve the suspension Wednesday night instead of working his assigned game between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.

Papelbon was suspended by the league for seven games and fined an undisclosed amount on Monday for making the lewd gesture toward fans in Sunday's game against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park.

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