9-19-14

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MLB Weekend betting cheat sheet: Hughes cashing for Under bettors

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the weekend's major-league games:

Rockies Riding High

The Coors Field factor is in full effect this week, with the Rockies posting their fourth Over in as many home games Thursday with a 7-6 triumph (-120, O 10) over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The victory moves Colorado to 41-32-5 O/U at Coors Field with three home games remaining, and 74-67-12 O/U for the season.

This Could Get Messy

One of the biggest mismatches of the season goes Friday afternoon as the Los Angeles Dodgers (-285) square off against the host Chicago Cubs. The Dodgers send Cy Young and National League MVP candidate Clayton Kershaw (19-3, 1.70 ERA) to the hill against Cubs journeyman Edwin Jackson (6-14, 6.09).

Potential Mismatch

The Los Angeles Angels will likely be big favorites Saturday night as they welcome the Texas Rangers to Angels Stadium of Anaheim. The Angels enter the weekend with the best home record in the American League, while the Rangers are 32-46 away from Texas and have won just three of 16 meetings with Los Angeles this season.

Tanaka Time

The New York Yankees will have electrifying rookie Masahiro Tanaka back on the mound Sunday as they host the Toronto Blue Jays. Tanaka, who has been on the disabled list since early July with a partially torn UCL in his right elbow, will look to finish the season on a high note after going 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA and $465 in value through 18 starts.

Pitching Notes

* Minnesota right-hander Phil Hughes looks to remain a strong Under play Friday night as he leads the Twins (-128, 7.5) against the visiting Cleveland Indians. Hughes is 2-9 O/U in his last 11 starts and remains one of the top value pitchers in the majors, ranked seventh overall at $1,001.

* Bettors should keep a close eye on right-hander Max Scherzer's workload Saturday as the Detroit Tigers ace squares off against the host Kansas City Royals. Scherer (16-5, 3.26 ERA) has thrown at least 110 pitches in seven of his previous nine starts, going 7-2 SU and 4-5 O/U over that span.

* It has been a rough 3 1/2 weeks for Seattle right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, who takes the hill Sunday as the Mariners visit the Houston Astros. Iwakuma (14-8, 3.42 ERA) was tagged for seven runs over 3 1/3 innings last time out and has allowed 22 runs over his previous five starts, going 2-3 SU and 4-0-1 O/U over that span.

Hitting Notes

* Colorado catcher Wilin Rosario has benefited greatly from the Rockies' recent home success. Rosario is 9-for-13 with two home runs and seven RBIs over the past three games, after recording just one home run and six RBIs over his previous 18 contests - a stretch during which Colorado went 6-12.

* There's something about Baltimore Orioles pitcher Chris Tillman that brings out the worst in Boston Red Sox slugger David Ortiz. Tillman has limited to Ortiz to just a pair of hits - both singles - in 24 career at-bats, striking him out six times as the two prepare to face off Saturday night at Camden Yards.

* St. Louis Cardinals hurler Lance Lynn may have his hands full Sunday night as he prepares to face Jay Bruce and the Cincinnati Reds. Bruce has struggled for the majority of the season but is batting a red-hot .480 (12-for-25) with a double, two triples, two home runs and eight RBIs in his career versus Lynn.

Totals Streak

New York Yankees (1-7 O/U): The Yankees head into the twilight of the regular season with a meager offensive attack that has failed to produce more than three runs in any of its last eight games. The recent Under streak has New York at 61-87-4 on the season - the second-fewest Overs in the American League.

Prop of the Day

Bettors should consider using Mark Buehrle's history against him and taking the New York Yankees -2.5 against the Toronto Blue Jays (+260). Buehrle is 1-13 with a 6.14 ERA in 20 career starts versus the Yankees, including an 0-6, 6.04 mark in eight outings at Yankee Stadium.

Injury Notes

* Los Angeles Angels outfielder Josh Hamilton is dealing with tightness and soreness in his right shoulder and is considered day-to-day. The Angels are 39-22 SU, 32-27-2 O/U and +1,421 units in Hamilton's absence so far this season.

* A bout of pneumonia may sideline Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado for the remainder of the season. Arenado has missed 40 games so far in 2014, with Colorado going just 13-27 SU, 24-12-4 O/U and -1,223 units with him out of the lineup.

Weather Watch

* Wind at Wrigley Field will blow out to left-center field at 13 mph Friday for the game between the Cubs and the heavily favored Dodgers. Teams combined for better than three home runs per game under similar conditions in 2013 - well above stadium averages.

* Fans at Target Field in Minnesota will be greeted by wind blowing out to right field at 12 mph for Saturday's showdown between the Twins and the visiting Indians. Teams averaged just .245 in 14 games with the wind blowing out to right in 2013.

Umpire Note of the Day

Over is 16-6-4 in umpire Laz Diaz' last 26 games behind home plate. Diaz will be calling the balls and strikes Friday evening when the New York Yankees (-140, 7.5) entertain the Toronto Blue Jays.

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Paul Leiner

100* Red Sox/Orioles Over 8
50* Nationals-145

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SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS /Geoff Weigel

NCAAF – 8:00 pm – South Florida -130 for 3 units

In a matchup of two bad teams, take the bad team at home on Friday Night. The Bulls were much more competitive in their two losses than UCONN has been.Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

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ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS

PERRY'S SOCCER CLUB season record (-8.87)

(ITALY - SERIE B) - TRAPANI CALCIO @ CARPI FC 1909 - OVER 2 -154 (1PM)

(BRAZIL - SERIE B) - PORTUGUESA SP @ AMERICA RN - UNDER 2.5 -125 (630PM)

(GERMANY - 2ND BUNDESLIGA) - SV SANDHAUSEN @ VFR AALEN - UNDER 2.5 -140 (1230PM)

(DENMARK - 1ST DIVISION) - VENDSYSSEL FF @ SKIVE IK - UNDER 2.5 -105 (1PM)

(SCOTLAND - PREMIER LEAGUE) - ST MIRREN @ PARTICK THISTLE - OVER 2.5 -110 (245PM)

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Five to Follow MLB Betting: Friday September 19, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

I hear some people say that baseball’s regular season should end in late August so it doesn’t interfere with football season. I respectfully disagree. Look at a day like Friday where you have five live baseball betting options at Bovada: Dodgers at Cubs, Blue Jays at Yankees, Red Sox at Orioles, Rangers at Angels and Giants at Padres. I’m guessing all those games will be more exciting than the college football matchup between UConn and South Florida. Just saying. Here’s a look at five interesting matchups on Friday’s MLB schedule.

Dodgers at Cubs (+242, TBA)

This doesn’t have the biggest spread discrepancy of the season — now I’m interested to find what that has been — but it might be the biggest pitching mismatch all year. The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw continues to make his case for NL MVP (Cy Young is locked up) when he faces the Cubs at Wrigley in the day’s only matinee. Kershaw (19-3, 1.70) isn’t just the best pitcher in baseball, he might be the best of this generation. Kershaw has gone eight innings in each of his past five starts, all wins, and not allowed more than two runs. This will be his first look at the Cubs in 2014. Kershaw is an amazing 10-1 with a 1.64 ERA on the road. That’s obscene. Meanwhile, the Cubs start probably the worst pitcher in the majors in Edwin Jackson (6-14, 6.09). He hasn’t pitched since Aug. 20 when he was shelled for seven runs and eight hits in 2.2 innings by the Giants. He was placed on the DL after. Jackson actually won at the Dodgers on Aug. 3, allowing two runs over six innings in one of his best starts of the year.

Key trends: The Dodgers are oddly just 3-7 in Kershaw’s past 10 vs. the NL Central. The Cubs are 1-6 in Jackson’s past seven at home. The “over/under” has gone under in Kershaw’s past five vs. the Cubs.

Early lean: Uh, yeah, Dodgers on the runline.



Mets at Braves (-150, 6.5)

There could be as many as three key Braves sitting this one out. Catcher Evan Gattis for sure will as he’s dealing with a kidney stone. Both shortstop Andrelton Simmons and outfielder Jason Heyward left Wednesday’s game with minor ailments, so they are questionable. Hard to believe the Braves could actually finish below .500 and behind the Marlins in the NL East. Atlanta just collapsed. Thus, it could be a weakened lineup that the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (10-10, 3.61) will face. This will be his fifth start against Atlanta this year, and he is 0-2 despite a solid 3.70 ERA. Freddie Freeman is 7-for-13 career off him with two doubles and a home run. Julio Teheran (13-12, 2.89) has lost three straight for Atlanta because the Braves have totaled two runs in those games. He is 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA vs. the Mets in 2014.

Key trends: The Mets are 4-1 in Wheeler’s past five Friday starts. The Braves have won seven straight Teheran starts on Friday. The under is 5-1 in Teheran’s past six vs. the Mets.

Early lean: Under at -120.



Tigers at Royals (-118, 8)

This probably has to qualify as the biggest series of the year thus far. Detroit enters leading the Royals by a half game in the AL Central, although Kansas City has a game in hand. Whichever team doesn’t win the division could quite possibly miss the playoffs altogether, largely depending on how Seattle finishes the season. Normally you would be happy as a Tigers fan that Justin Verlander is starting the opener, but he hasn’t been himself this season. Maybe he’s distracted by Kate Upton (I would be). Verlander (13-12, 4.81) is 2-2 with a 5.57 ERA in five starts against the Royals this season. Salvador Perez hits Verlander hard, going 14-for-33 with seven doubles, a homer and 10 RBIs. The Royals can’t feel too confident in lefty Jason Vargas (11-9, 3.41). He has a 7.59 ERA in his past two starts, both losses. He is 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA vs. Detroit. Alex Avila hits .313 off him with two homers. He hasn’t played since Sunday, however, after taking a foul tip off his mask.

Key trends: The Tigers have lost eight straight on the road vs. lefties. They are 0-5 in Verlander’s past five road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Detroit is 1-5 in Verlander’s past six in K.C. The under is 4-0 in Vargas’ past four vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: I think Verlander finds his old stuff. Take Detroit.



Mariners at Astros (+127, 8.5)

This is the easiest series the M’s have left, so they really need to win all three games. They start one of the game’s top pitching prospects in Taijuan Walker (1-2, 2.96). He’s getting a start because a spot opened up with rookie lefty Roenis Elias expected to be done for the season. Strangely, three of Walker’s six big-league starts have come against Houston, and he’s 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA. Houston’s Brad Peacock (4-8, 4.80) missed his last start due to back tightness. Peacock has been good of late, not allowing more than two earned over his past five starts, although he never goes very deep into games. He is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts vs. Seattle. Kyle Seager is 6-for-18 with a homer and five RBIs against him.

Key trends: Seattle is 6-1 in its past seven on the road vs. teams with a losing record. Houston is 1-4 in Peacock’s past five at home. Seattle has won five straight in Houston. The under is 4-1 in Peacock’s past five vs. Seattle.

Early lean: Under at -110.



Giants at Padres (+120, 6.5)

The Giants were hoping to be whole in the lineup for the first time in a while on Friday, but that’s not expected to happen now. The good news is an MRI on the back of outfielder Angel Pagan came back clean, and he should return. The team’s second-leading hitter (.302) hasn’t played since Sunday. Originally, Michael Morse was expected to return as well, but he is still feeling pain in his oblique. He has been out since the end of August. This is a series the Giants should sweep and need to. They start Tim Hudson on Friday. Hudson (9-11, 3.41) is pitching through some hip pain and he has been a bit off of late, allowing 14 runs over 12 innings in his past three starts, all losses. He is 1-2 with a 2.96 ERA vs. the Padres. Odrisamer Despaigne (3-7, 3.63) has owned the Giants, allowing just one run over 13 innings in two starts.

Key trends: The Giants are 9-2 in their past 11 against right-handers. San Diego is 1-6 in Despaigne’s past seven against teams with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in San Francisco’s past five on Friday.

Early lean: Giants and over at -120.

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NEWSLETTER Major League Baseball Prediction From Doc’s Sports

Take ‘Over’ 8.0 – Toronto at New York (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 19)
The season is winding down, but we keep punching tickets. We’re up $14,000 in profit on the season, and will have a 5-Unit Game of the Week on Friday. Here we have a matchup between two teams that have seen their playoff chances finally dwindle down to nothing as we approach the final week. The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays can now focus on the golf course and put baseball in the rear view mirror. That plays into the handicap as teams out of the race generally play to more overs than unders historically. We get two veteran hurlers in this contest, and both are up there in age with Mark Buehrle at 35 and Hiroki Kuroda at 39. Both are true professionals and take their craft seriously, but this is the time of year where guys this age aren’t even close to 100% as their bodies have worn down. I’d be surprised if either starter pitches a gem, so the respective offenses will have every opportunity to pounce. Both teams have also been riding their top bullpen arms for quite a while (especially Joe Girardi with the Yankees), so there’s a good chance we start to see some other guys get chances in the late innings. That probably means more chances at runs and another reason to look towards the over.

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Arthur Ralph

Blue Ribbon Nationals w/ Fister

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J.R. Stevens/SMOOTH44

MLB: (902) Chicago Cubs +285

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Worlds Worst Picker
U Conn +2

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ALL SPORTS INSIDER

Connecticut +2 *1 unit*

(Uconn/S.Florida) – Under 44 *1 unit*

Seattle Mariners *1 unit*

Pittsburgh Pirates *1 unit*

Washington Nationals *2 units*

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Win or Lose Sports Betting

MLB

904 PITT ML -125
908 ATL -1 +105
917 BOS +1 +105
920 TB ML -125
928 LAA -1 -150
929 PHIL +1 +175

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

T.G.I.F Card has a Huge college Football Total of the Month with 8 Power angles and statistical indicators. Early Saturday 6* NCAAF also up. Football sweeps on Thursday. In MLB The lead play is a 5* Blowout system that is 40-5 since 2004 and has 2 perfect angles. Free MLB Play below.

On Friday night the free MLB power angle play is on the MY. Yankees. Game 916 at 7:05 eastern. The Yankees have won 27 of the last 31 here at the stadium vs Toronto. They are 9-2 at home off a 1 run home win where they scored 4 or less runs. The Pitching is all in favor of New York as well. M. Buehrle goes for the Jays and he is 0-10 here the last few seasons including 0-2 this year allowing 8 earned runs in 9 innings. He has lost 7 of his last 10 road starts made in September. Kuroda for the Yankees has won 7 of his last 10 home September starts. He has gone 4-0 at home vs Toronto with 3 of those wins over Buehrle. He also has allowed just 7 runs in 26 innings in those 4 home wins vs the Jays. Look for the Yankees to get the win here tonight. On Friday the NCAAF College football total of the month with 8 powerful angles and indicators is up along with a 5* MLB 40-5 Blowout system that wins by over 3 runs per game and has 2 Perfect angles. Football sweeps 2-0 on Thursday, early Saturday 6* up now. Get on now and start the weekend big with the most powerful data and material in the industry. For the free play take the NY. Yankees. GC

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FantasySportsGametime

FRIDAY FOOTBALL

5000* Play South Florida -1.5 over Connecticut (TOP NCAA PLAY)

Connecticut has lost 7 consecutive games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games and they have lost 14 of the last 19 games when playing as an underdog. Connecticut has lost 9 of the last 10 games coming off two or more losses against the spread and they are only averaging 16 points a game on offense this season.

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FantasySportsGametime


MLB Baseball

1000* Play LA Dodgers -240 over Chicago Cubs (TOP MLB PLAY)

Edwin Jackson has lost 27 of the last 38 day games and he has lost 39 of the last 59 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher. Edwin Jackson has lost 14 of the last 20 games vs. NL West Division Opponents and he is 0-3 over the last three starts with an ERA of 10.12.

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50* Play Colorado -120 over Arizona (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Atlanta -140 over New York Mets (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

FRIDAY

TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY

• Play South Florida -1.5 over Connecticut----RISK 25% OF YOUR BANKROLL

8:00 PM EST

Connecticut has lost 11 of the last 13 games against the spread when playing in the 1^st half of the season and they have lost 10 of the last 14 games against the spread coming off a loss against the spread in their last game. Connecticut has lost 10 of the last 15 games against the spread when playing with six or less days of rest and they have lost 6 of the last 8 games against the spread when playing as a road underdog