9-19-14

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XpertPicks

FRIDAY BASEBALL

• Play Washington -120 over Miami---Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)

7:10 PM EST

Doug Fister has won 8 of the last 8 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has won 8 of the last 10 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less. Doug Fister has won 11 of the last 14 games when the line posted is between -100 to -150 and he has an ERA of 1.13 vs. Miami over his career.

• Play Seattle -125 over Houston---Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)
  8:00 PM EST

Brad Peacock has lost 12 of the last 15 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has lost 23 of the last 35 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher. Brad Peacock has lost 12 of the last 19 home games and he has an ERA of 5.95 vs. Seattle over his career.

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BeatYourBookie


FRIDAY

10* Play South Florida -1.5 over Connecticut (Top NCAA Play)

Connecticut is 2-11 ATS when playing in the 1^st half of the season
Connecticut is 4-10 ATS coming off a loss in their last game
Connecticut is 2-7 ATS in road games the last two seasons

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BeatYourBookie

FRIDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Washington -120 over Miami (MLB TOP PLAY)

Doug Fister is 8-1 when pitching with five to six days of rest
Doug Fister is 8-2 when the total posted is seven runs or less
Doug Fister is 11-3 when the line posted is between -100 to -150


10* Play Seattle -125 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Brad Peacock is 3-12 when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs
Brad Peacock is 12-23 when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher
Brad Peacock is 7-12 in home games the last two seasons

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5* Play Atlanta -140 over New York Mets (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Colorado -120 over Arizona (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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Kevin's Pick(s):
Awesome night last night, as I went 2-1 including cashing 5 units on the Rangers winning as huge underdogs! Plus Kyle added his 9th straight winner, and is now 12-1 over his last 13 picks. I've got three systems picks and Kyle is taking a pass on today's board, waiting for tomorrow to try for his 10th straight winner.
2 UNIT = Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins - INDIANS TO WIN (+120)
Listed Pitchers: Bauer vs Hughes
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.40 units)
2 UNIT = Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies - OVER 10.5 RUNS (-105)
Listed Pitchers: Anderson vs Lyles
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres - UNDER 6.5 RUNS (+102)
Listed Pitchers: Hudson vs Despaigne
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.04 units)

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Northcoast
Top Opinion South Florida -2

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LT LOCK

Kansas City -113

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Falcon Sports

Pittsburgh -130 listing Locke/Gallardo

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Bob Balfe

Milwaukee +110

Gallardo/Locke
This is more or less a playoff series for Milwaukee. If they fail to do well against Pittsburgh they are done. The Pirates have been on a nice run, but look at who they have played. The next two weeks are going to make or break them. The Brewers do well against left handed pitching and I think Gallardo is a slightly better pitcher even though he has struggled his last few starts. These final few weeks really test a teams will power. The Brewers don’t want to miss out again. MLB starts to get relevant right about now. This should be a great series. Take Milwaukee

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Ecks & Bacon for Friday, September 19, 2014

Passing

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EZWINNERS

2* Chicago Cubs +$280

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killer move
braves

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DIAMOND DOG SPORTS

#902: Cubs: +255 (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Kershaw/Jackson

#907: Mets: +130 (3.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Wheeler/Teheran

#915/916: Blue Jays/Yankees: Over 7.5 (+100) (2.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Buehrle/Kuroda

#917/918: Red Sox/Orioles: Under 8.0 (-105) (3*)
Listed Pitchers: Webster/Gausman

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Sportswagers

Cincinnati @ ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati +213 over ST. LOUIS

The Cardinals won last night 3-2 in 13 innings but it was more a case of extremely poor managing by Ron Roenicke of the Brewers. Why Roenicke pulled Kyle Lohse with one out in the eighth is a mystery. Why he left Jonathan Broxton in there after Lohse in the eighth inning when Broxton couldn’t throw a strike is a mystery. Why be bunted with a leadoff double in the 11th is a mystery and why he chose to bunt again in the 12th after Pat Neshek walked the leadoff hitter on four pitches is also a mystery. St. Louis didn’t win that game; it was handed to them 5 times over. The Cardinals had three hits on Wednesday, six hits on Tuesday and they had two hits last night going to the eighth. Struggling miserably at the plate, the Cards will now face lefty David Holmberg. Holmberg pitched in relief before being inserted into the rotation and in two games in this much more comfortable role he has allowed just six hits and one run in 11.2 innings with nine K’s. Holmberg does bring some risk because he can be wild at times but at this price against a struggling lineup, he’s worth the risk.

We also can’t get past passing up a tag like this against John Lackey. Lackey had his last turn skipped after complaining of arm fatigue. Lackey has a 5.05 ERA since being traded to St. Louis on July 31. His 7.6 K’s/9 with Boston in 2014 has slightly dropped to 6.8 with St. Louis in eight starts. He's given up at least one jack in all but one game with the Cards and over his last five starts he has a WHIP of 1.43. Cincinnati is having a horrible year but they’ll now play in some relevant games against a contender and that’s a role many of the “also ran’s” step up in. The Reds swept the Cardinals back in Cincinnati just eight days ago and we would not count them out here. Big risk brings big rewards and this one isn't as big a risk as it may appear.


Our Pick
Cincinnati +213 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.26)

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Sportswagers

Washington @ MIAMI
MIAMI +140 over Washington

Washington clinched the NL East on Wednesday and came in here last night and took the opener, 6-2. What usually follows a game clinching win is a bit of a letdown for a game or two and since that didn’t happen yesterday, this is a pretty good spot for that to occur with Doug Fister on the hill. Fister is beginning to labor. His swing and miss rate is low at 6% and he’s throwing less strikes the past month. He’s only walked 35 batters all year but he’s walked eight over his last five starts in 30 frames. He’s also hit 22 batters since the second half of last season, which has inflated his ERA. OK, maybe not, but they left plenty of bruises. Fister has stopped hitting people but he’s suddenly having trouble with LH batters. Despite his decent skills, Fister’s pitch-to-contact profile is a risky way to roll and he’s had trouble in the past against current Marlins with an oppBA of .325.

Tom Koehler has what might appear on paper to be a tough matchup against the NL East Champion Nationals. Koehler has been at his best at home, with a 2.68 ERA, compared to 4.63 on the road. In two starts against Washington, he has a 1.38 ERA in 13 IP. The Nationals will probably give their regulars some rest down the stretch, so Koehler may not face a fully-loaded Nationals lineup. Koehler’s recent profile is trending the right way and we also like the price in this one.


Our Pick
MIAMI +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)

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Sportswagers

Milwaukee @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH -1½ +173 over Milwaukee

Frankly, we could not care less about who is on the mound for the Pirates here because this one is all about fading the reeling Brewers and the garbage pitcher that they’re sending out today.

The Brewers gave up five hits over the first 16 innings in St. Louis the past two games and lost them both. Prior to taking two of three from the reeling Reds and defeating Miami in a series, Milwaukee had dropped 18 of its past 21 games. These Brewers are in big trouble and it sure can’t help their state of mind when they see the Pirates winning every night. Pittsburgh is the hottest team in baseball with four wins in a row and 11 victories over its past 13 games. The Bucs are scoring six a night with regularity and they figure to put up another crooked number here against Yovani Gallardo. It's clear that Gallardo isn't the same pitcher he used to be due to his inability to generate K’s. That becomes frustrating after a while and now Gallardo has lost his control because he’s afraid to come at hitter’s. Over his last 26 innings, Gallardo has an awful BB/K split of 12/13. Over that same span his swing and miss rate was 4%, which is another indicator of a “dead” arm. Gallardo has surrendered four jacks over his last three games, not to mention 21 hits, 15 runs and six walks over 14 innings. The Brewers have lost each of Gallardo’s last five starts and now this stiff is out of gas. The Pirates can put the Brewers out of their misery with a three-game sweep and it would be a complete shock to us if they didn’t do exactly that starting with this one. Hell, we’d even lay 2½ runs in this one but the +173 at -1½ runs is pretty juicy on its own.


Our Pick
PITTSBURGH -1½ +173 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.46)