9-20-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Week 4 College Football

Kansas State +9
Wake Forest +2.5
Alabama -15
Texas A&M -33
Navy -6
Penn State -27
LSU -10
Oklahoma -7.5
Florida State -17
Oregon -24

Last Week: 2-6-2
Overall: 10-18-2
Best Bets: 3-0
Best Bet: LSU -10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Week 4 College Football

Auburn -9
Wake Forest +2.5
Florida +15
Texas A&M -33
Navy -6
UMass +27
Mississippi State +10
West Virginia +7.5
Clemson +17
Washington State +24

Last Week: 5-3-2
Overall: 14-14-2
Best Bets: 0-2-1
Best Bet: UMass +27

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SHARP MOVES

Steam Rot#: 391 Team: California +11½-118

Steam Rot#: 365 Team: Florida State -19

Steam Rot#: 389 Team: West Virginia +10

Steam Rot#: 345 Team: Memphis -8

Steam Rot#: 375 Team: Miami Ohio +29

Steam Rot#: 347 Team: Georgia State +36½-120

Steam Rot#: 307 Team: Indiana +17

Steam Rot#: 309 Team: Massachusetts +28

Steam Rot#: 367 Team: Virginia +16½

Steam Rot#: 329 Team: Army pk-128

Steam Rot#: 371 Team: Old Dominion +10

Steam Rot#: 325 Team: Wisconsin -22½

Steam Rot#: 305 Team: Connecticut +3½-112

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Playbook Football Newsletter

· TCU Head coach Gary Patterson is 13-1 ATS home with rest, including 9-0 as a double-digit favorite.
· South Florida is 4-16 SU in its last twenty home games.
· Ga State receives $900K for playing UDub this week. The Huskies are 11-1 ATS in non-cons after scoring 40+ points.
· West Virginia has lost only 4 of its last 72 home game by more than ten points.

Playbook Advantage:
The downtrodden Big 10 Conference will be out for blood this weekend after taking a beating in the press and the polls over its performances this season to date. Wisconsin leads the charge when they host defenseless Bowling Green in a one-sided fundamental mismatch. The Falcons' swiss-cheese defense has allowed over 1,700 yards in three games this season while coughing up 101 points combined to Indiana and Western Kentucky. With Wisky head coach Gary Andersen 7-1 ATS at home in his career against non-conference opponents, look for the Badgers to improve to 8-0 ATS in games with rest. The Playbook Advantage in this game is on WISCONSIN.

Playbook Angles, Systems, and Trends
College 9/20/2014
Play Against any 3-0 double-digit college football favorite in Game Four versus an opponent off a SUATS loss if the opponent was not favored in the loss.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 34-15
Play Against: Marshall and Texas A&M

NFL 9/21/2014
Play Against any non-division NFL home team in Game Three off back to back division games if they lost the last game by 8 or more points.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 10-3
Play Against: Miami Dolphins

BetVega
Free BetVega upset picks are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS YTD!
UPSET #1: Akron (+10) vs. Marshall – The Herd probably aren’t going to be tripped up this year, but this is a really dangerous game in Akron. The Zips aren’t bad at all, and Head Coach Terry Bowden has them playing their butts off. They didn’t end up getting outplayed badly by Penn State a few weeks ago as most though, and they are going to have to play the defensive game of their lives in this one. That said, Marshall was sloppy last year on the road, losing to Rice, Middle Tennessee State, Virginia Tech, and Ohio, and Florida Atlantic nearly got the job done as well.
The Zips feel like they could be poised for an upset to us in this one, especially if the defense can’t keep up nearly as well as we know that QB Rakeem Cato will manage to on the other side of the field.
UPSET #2: Army (opened +3, now -2) @ Wake Forest – Again, it’s not the prettiest play in the world, but when we get the chance to fade Wake Forest as a favorite, we’re going to do it. The Demon Deacons are just really, really bad. They were killed by Utah State last week, and they never really got their act together against Weber State the week before. Louisiana Monroe destroyed this club on the opening night of the season to boot.
Are the Black Knights good? No, they aren’t. They’ve only thrown the ball 12 times the whole season, and though some of the base runners like RB Larry Dixon are having good years, there just isn’t enough offense to go around to beat most good teams. However, there’s a big difference between playing Stanford last week and Wake Forest this week. We’ll take our shot on the Cadets.
UPSET #3: Mississippi State (+10) @ LSU Tigers – Here’s a much sexier game, but it isn’t going to be a popular big. This would be the upset of the year in the SEC, and that’s saying something considering the two South Carolina games we’ve already seen.QB Dak Prescott might be the best player on the field when he is out there, and when you’ve got the best player, and that player happens to be a quarterback, you’ve got a fighting chance.
We’ve seen Mississippi State come so close to winning so many of these games against SEC West teams, and it never seems to finally get the job done. This might be the team’s lucky day. It’s tough to go into the Bayou at night and win at Tiger Stadium, but if there’s a team that can get the job done, the Bulldogs might be just that team.

Joe Nelson (2014-08-10)
Weekend of September 20
Revenge Spot
North Carolina over East Carolina: The Tar Heels expect to be a serious contender in the ACC this season and after a 55-31 loss in Chapel Hill last season the Pirates have their attention. After playing South Carolina and Virginia Tech the previous two weeks, East Carolina could be out of gas against a rested UNC squad playing in this revenge spot.
Road Trip
Michigan State over Eastern Michigan: The challenge at Eastern Michigan will be great for 1st year head coach Chris Creighton with this being the third consecutive road game for the Eagles and a daunting test in East Lansing. The Spartans have not been great in the heavy favorite role but if they enter this game off a loss to Oregon they may aim to pour it on to get back on track.
Historically Speaking
LSU over Mississippi State: The Tigers are 21-1 S/U and 18-4 ATS in this series since 1992. This will be a second straight road game for the Bulldogs and even when they play well against LSU they seem to find ways to miss the cover. Last season Mississippi State had 468 yards against LSU but still lost 59-26 at home.
Look-Ahead
Northern Illinois over Arkansas: This is a challenging scheduling spot for the Huskies but they will embrace the opportunity to face a major conference foe. The Huskies have experience against a Bret Bielema offense facing Wisconsin in 2011 and this could be a tricky spot for the Razorbacks with this game in between bigger games with Texas Tech and Texas A&M.
Letdown
San Jose State over Minnesota: The Spartans out-gained Minnesota in a misleading 43-24 loss in Minneapolis last season and this could be a tough spot for the Gophers as a big game at TCU is the week before and the B1G opener with Michigan is on deck. Minnesota should start the season 2-0 before the TCU game which could be a rude awakening for a team that may have overachieved in ‘13.

Residence In-zone
Robbie Gainous
Posted: 2014-09-17
Last week SMU fell to North Texas 43 to 6 scoring their only points of the 2014 season on the last play of the game and it was a Hail Mary on several fronts for this Mustangs team. SMU head coach June Jones resigned following that loss. His Mustangs opened the season losing to Baylor 45 to 0 and there was little hope on the horizon for Jones he did the only thing he could do step down after such a poor start to the season.
For the Mustangs it doesn't get any easier this week they face a Texas A&M team that has not missed a beat even with the loss of Johnny Football to the NFL. In fact QB Kenny Hill has been amazing throwing eleven touchdowns and no INT's so far this season. Texas A&M opened the season winning on the road in Columbia and doing so with ease. Texas A&M was installed as nine-point underdogs on the road at South Carolina with many of the so-called experts not giving Hill and Company much of a chance but in the end they walked away with an impressive 52 to 28 drubbing of a solid South Carolina team.
The Aggies won last week versus Rice but failed to cover the 30.5-point spread winning 38 to 10. Whether the players for the Aggies had money on the game or they were just aware of the fact that they did not play to their potential in that game head coach Kevin Sumlin mentioned how disappointed his players were in the locker room following that win. He stated they were not at all happy with the way they played.
This week's college system plays on road teams that are on a roll facing a team that just gave up more than five touchdowns. The qualifying factor for our play on team they must have won back-to-back games by at least four touchdowns. Texas A&M and SMU qualify based on the system parameters and SMU can look forward to another long afternoon as Hill and Company take up residence in the Mustangs endzone.
SYSTEM: Play ON college football road teams coming off back-to-back wins by at least twenty-eight points facing a team that is coming off a game in which they gave up at least thirty-seven points. This system has a record of 44-12 ATS since 2002 covering the spread by 7.09 points per game.
The Mustangs have an 88 to 6 point deficit having played just two games so far this season and Texas A&M has shown no mercy when facing this SMU squad. Texas A&M is a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread winning by an average of 51 to 10 with an average line of twenty-points. No fear or hesitation backing the Aggies on the road their last visit here two years ago they won easily 48 to 3.
With all the system parameters met this week's Cajun Sports NCAA Football System Game of the Week calls for a play ON the Texas A&M Aggies on the road at the SMU Mustangs. Texas A&M Aggies minus the points on Saturday. Have a great weekend and as always good luck.

Victory King
Opinions:
N Car / E Car OVER... Hawaii / Colo OVER. .. UNLV / Hous OVER... Akron / Marsh UNDER...

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE

***CFB GAME OF THE YEAR***

8 Unit Play Take #351 Georgia Southern -2.5 over South Alabama (7:30pm est)

Without a lot of information it wasn’t easy to pinpoint exactly where this George Southern team ranked before the 2014 CFB season started. The Eagles did beat the Florida Gators late last season in their only contest versus an FBS school. It was actually a dominating type of win as GSU looked like the much better team that day as they outgained the Gators by 150 yards and still got the victory despite a -2 turnover margin. Last year marked the 4th straight season the Eagles covered the point spread versus their lone FBS opponent for the year and the teams they have beat during those years are a who’s who of major college football programs in Alabama, Georgia, Navy and last year’s Florida outright win. After nearly beating what looks to be a much improved North Carolina State on the road in week one and also nearly pulling off another huge upset as a double digit underdog last week at Georgia Tech, it’s become obvious that this Georgia Southern team isn’t being properly rated by the betting markets at this time. South Alabama got slammed last week by Mississippi State, losing by a 35-3 score in a game they had the rare luxury of hosting versus an SEC opponent. The Jaguars only other game this season so far was a 23-13 win over what now looks to be a very bad Kent State squad. USA had a nice finish to their season last year making it to the .500 mark overall at 6-6 but they were helped out greatly by Louisiana Lafayette sitting a bunch of starters after already locking up the conference title bowl bid. They lost their starting quarterback from last season and face a big drop off this year with Brandon Bridge taking over behind center. Take Georgia Southern here. Big season of winners on the diamond again this year as I jumped out of the gates a winner day one of the 2014 MLB season and haven’t looked back since, showing a yearly profit overall for the year every day of this season. Get on board and make some money the rest of this MLB season as baseball remains my top winning sport of all-time.

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The Wager Wire / Joey Buckets

Oregon St/SD St. Over 58 (-110) 1u

Wisconsin -26 (-110) 1u

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SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS / Geoff Weigel

NCAAF – 12:00 pm – Pittsburgh -6.5 for 2 units
Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

NCAAF 3:30 pm – Michigan -4.5 for 4 units
The Utes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Wolverines by a TD or more.

NCAAF 3:30 pm – Alabama -14.5 for 3 units
Gators are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Alabama.

NCAAF 7:30 pm – West Virginia 7.5 for 3 units
RB Keith Ford will not be playing in this game for the Sooners. West Virginia gave Bama all they can handle, and I expect the same Saturday against the Sooners with a great homefield advantage.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OMEGA SPORTS PICKS

Ball State +14 -110 2U

1.5 Unit Teaser
[326] WISCONSIN -21-110 (B+6) [360] HOUSTON U -15½-110 (B+6)

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NO LIMIT SPORTS PICKS

3 unit Maryland Terps +1
3 unit Florida St. -16.5
3 unit Umass Minutemen +26.5

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Tony del

byu cougars (-15)

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Vegas Winning Crew

50 Dime Plays:

Florida State -14
Duke -17
Alabama -14
Missouri -13

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Vegas line reader

Bowling Green/Wisconsin Over 64

Army -2.5

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Trace Adams

First Ever 2500♦
College Play of My Career
Four TD Burial

Duke

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Saturday Edge - Pezgordo: 4 - Team ML Parlay

YTD: 2-1 (+0.93)

4 - Team ML Parlay (-109)

Colorado, Houston, Oregon & Arkansas

I am going with Colorado again as my short favorite in this week's ML parlay. I was actually quite impressed with the Buffs last week in Boulder. They put up 545 yards of total offense against Arizona State and were extremely balanced, rushing for 232 yards (6.27 yards per carry) & passing for 313.

They actually outgained the Sun Devils 545 yards to 426, but 3 costly turnovers (one inside their own 10 yard line) and getting stopped on downs at the ASU 2 yard line ultimately did them in.

Hawaii has already lost to two Pac-12 teams at home this year, and now they are making their first trip of the season to the mainland. Hawaii is 0-12 SU on the mainland over the last two years, and they haven't beaten a Power 5 Conference team on the road since 2009.

I believe we have two programs and teams heading in opposite directions here. Hawaii is seriously thinking about dropping their football program all together. Colorado is adding on to Folsom Field and building multi-million dollar practice facilities in an effort to better arm themselves for the Pac-12 recruiting wars.

Last week while Hawaii struggled to beat a lowly FCS foe 27-24, Colorado was trading blows with the #15 team in the country. The Buffs will be very confident entering this game and it would not surprise me if we see them blow Hawaii out.

Colorado 38 Hawaii 24

BONUS: Duke - If you do not want to include Arkansas in the parlay (since we already have them -13.5), or you are feeling greedy again, you can switch them out, or add the Blue Devils to your parlay. HC David Cutcliffe really has the Blue Devils playing well right now. especially on offense, and I believe they should easily dispatch of rebuilding Tulane.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday Edge - TrentMoney: Arkansas -13.5

382 Arkansas -13.5 (1 unit)

Playable to -16.5.

Bret Bielema has been known to be a bully, having gone 13-5 ATS since late 2010 as a double-digit favorite... Northern Illinois is on a 3 game road trip, and playing the power run game of the Razorbacks in front of a night crowd in Fayetteville is as physically challenging a task as you're going to get in college football... Hard to get the back door cover when you don't have the football, as Arkansas held the ball for over 40 minutes in last week's game vs Texas Tech... NIU runs a similar fast paced offense as TTech, snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds as compared to every 19.2 seconds for the Red Raiders...we saw how that unfolded vs TTech last week (49-28 Arkansas) and I expect an even larger margin of victory this week.

Arkansas 48-24