9-21-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

History bodes well for the Saints Sunday
Andrew Avery

According to a tweet from Football Perspective, the New Orleans Saints will be the seventh team since 1978 to begin an NFL season 0-2 straight up and be a double-digit fave in their third game of the season.

In those previous six games, the 0-2 clubs have won all six SU, but are 3-3 ATS.

Oddsmakers have tabbed the Saints as 10.5-point home favorites with the Minnesota Vikings in town.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Showers in Cleveland's forecast Sunday
Andrew Avery

The Cleveland Browns host the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC North showdown, and the game get messy early on if current weather forecasts hold true.

Forecasts are calling for a 69 percent chance of thunderstorms before and during the game.

Furthermore, wind is forecast to blow toward the east endzone at roughly 15 mph.

The Browns are currently 1.5-point underdogs with a total of 41.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NFL | PITTSBURGH at CAROLINA
Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )

NFL | INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (JACKSONVILLE) after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season
42-20 over the last 10 seasons. ( 67.7% | 0.0 units )

NFL | INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE
Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (JACKSONVILLE) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year
49-20 since 1997. ( 71.0% | 27.0 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sylvania 300 Preview
By Micah Roberts

Brad Keselowski is an amazing driver with some amazing equipment. How can anyone stop him?

His win Sunday at Chicago was his second straight on the season and gave him a series leading five overall. This is how he's going to start the 2014 Chase? It's like he's riding a tidal wave above everyone into the Chase. It's a much better entrance to the Chase than in 2012 when he won at Chicago and went on to win his first Cup title.

The win Sunday enhances his win at Richmond two weeks ago even more. Remember when he led 383 of the 400 laps at Richmond? It was one of the more dominant ass-kickings on a race track I've ever seen -- at least a top-10 contender. Now he heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway, where one of his five wins on the season came in July.

If you've been reading this column through the years, then you've probably heard over and over again about how I like to group New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix into one group because they're all flat and nearly the same distance. Sure, it's repetitive, but it's the most important part of handicapping the race, especially this late in the season when we have four races of data to go off of.

Here's the drill you want to go through this week. Print the results from Phoenix, New Hampshire and both Richmond races and put them side to side in order of date they ran. Look at who has gotten better on each run and look who has been the most consistent. The driver that has gotten progressively better is Keselowski, which is hard to do when no finish is worse than fourth. But wins in the last two on them, and pasting the field at Richmond, puts him at a distinct advanatge Sunday.

The Pesnke Racing team has won the past three on these types with teammate Joey Logano winning at Richmond Apr. 26. They didn't win at Phoenix -- Kevin Harvick did, but Keselowski was third and Logano was fourth. And of the four races we're comparing, least important in the equation is Phoenix because it was so long ago.

Now that we have figured out that Keselowski is easily the driver to beat, the problem is getting good value and we're not going to get it. The sports books have their results sheets laid out too and they know Penske and Keselowski are the team to beat by a wide margin. Because he's so good, it's going to take some enticing odds on the other contenders to stray away from just going all in with Keselowski.

The best candidate to beat Keselowski would be Jeff Gordon who has twice finished second to a Penske car this season at Richmond. He's a three-time winner at New Hampshire and has led the most laps there all-time.

If looking for drivers with a little more punch in the odds department, you might take a chance with Clint Bowyer who raced his tail off at Richmond to a third-place finish while trying to make the Chase. He's a two-time winner at New Hampshire, including his first career victory. He finished sixth in the first New Hampshire in July.

The best car doesn't always win, so I'll ride with the second best car with Gordon. As always check out the final practices on Saturday to finalize your wagers.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (4/1)
3) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
5) #15 Clint Bowyer (30/1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keselowski taken to new Vegas heights
By: Micah Roberts

The beginning of NASCAR's 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup couldn't have kicked off any better. Brad Keselowski is now riding a tidal wave of victories, from dominating at Richmond two weeks ago to winning last week at Chicago.

What do you make of him? Is he a villain? Or is he the breath of fresh air some have waited for in this era of Jimmie Johnson dominance?

It wasn't too long ago he was wetting his beak in the top series and earning the nickname 'Brad Crash-a-lot-ski' from a few prominent Cup drivers thanks to his ultra-aggressive driving and some early mistakes. But now he's starting to repeat 2012, a year he won Chicago to kick off the Chase en route to winning the title.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has made a major adjustment on the odds to win Sunday's Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway just because of what we have seen recently with Keselowski. And it's not about winning two consecutive races coming in, but rather winning two consecutive races on a specific type of track.

He's been posted at 7-to-2 odds, which is a major price reduction from what we've seen all season, where three to four drivers have been favorites in the 5-to-1 range. At one time, four drivers were considered equal almost everywhere. By posting Keselowski so low, it's saying that Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano are only secondary figures and the No. 2 Miller Lite Ford should be in victory lane for a series-leading sixth time this season.

Because New Hampshire's flat 1-mile layout requires almost the same set-up as Richmond or Phoenix, we can group them all together, and the cool thing about it being this late in the season is that there are four races of data to scroll through.

The best handicapping practice for this race is to look at what's happened in the last two events on the similar tracks. So let's see: Keselowski led 383 of the 400 laps at Richmond on Sept. 6 and then on July 13 he led 138 laps en route to a win at New Hampshire. That's 2-for-2 on recent tracks that are most critical to the number.

If we go back further to include the other two like-track races, Keselowski finished fourth at Richmond in April and third at Phoenix in March. No one in the series has a resume even close to being as good. Logano won at the first Richmond race and Harvick won at Phoenix. Gordon finished second twice at Richmond this season, but Keselowski is a notch above all which is why he owns such low odds this week.

So who has the best shot at upsetting Keselowski?

Jeff Gordon (6-1): So what if he hasn't won at New Hampshire since his magical season of 1998? He's still the top contender to beat Keselowski. This guy is on a major rekindle tour and is savoring all the moments fans are giving him because of being the villain of sorts (an entirely different story) for the duration of his career. He's led a track-high 1,271 laps over his career and has a 9.8 average finish over his last 20 winless starts. Thanks to runner-up finishes at both Richmond races, Gordon is the non-Penske driver to key on.

Clint Bowyer (25-1): He could have never imagined his Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota would fail to win a race after their theatrics last season at Richmond. His engine has been tired and way behind all the top teams for most of the 2014 season, but we have seen some power from Toyota in the Joe Gibbs garages as well as MWR teammate Brian Vickers.

Two weeks ago at Richmond, Bowyer was trying to race himself into the Chase and failed, but he did finish third. In the first New Hampshire race, he finished sixth. This is his type of track.

He won his first career Cup race here and he's won two times overall. Richmond is his other signature track. So with a Toyota upgrade, Bowyer's natural skills on these tracks, he might be the best candidate at double-digit odds to win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with on Iowa (+7) on Saturday and likes the Packers on Sunday.

The deficit is 268 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hot Hondo bags another ‘W’

Hondo stayed red-hot Saturday in Kansas City, cashing with the Tigers for a fourth straight triumph that reduced his accounts payable to 1,745 munozes.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch will put down the horsehide in favor of the pigskin and throw what he hopes is a perfect 10-unit spiral at the Bengwads to bury the Titans.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Gold Sheet

ST. LOUIS by 10 over Dallas

HOUSTON by 14 over N.Y. Giants

NEW ORLEANS by 26 over Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CKO

11 *SEATTLE over Denver
Late Score Forecast:
*SEATTLE 31 - Denver 13

Seattle “bit” us on these pages last week, as San Diego was clearly more intense after the Chargers fumbled away
a golden opportunity in the closing minutes to pull an opening-game upset at Arizona. San Diego, intent on avoiding another of its chronic slow starts, owned the ball for 42 minutes and 15 seconds of the game, seriously restricting the Seattle offense, as Marshawn Lynch was limited to just six carries! Big-play WR/KR Percy Harvin made a big one for S.D., fumbling away a kickoff in the 30-21 loss. But if the recent past means anything, that poor performance by the reigning champs means mostly that they will be doubly-focused come Sunday, when the revenge-minded Broncos arrive in town. It will be the first game for Denver at CenturyLink Field since 2002. So Manning & Co. better get ready to “feel the noise,” as Russell Wilson has lost only one home game in his 2+Ys in the NFL, with a spread mark of 14-4-1.

NINE-RATED GAMES:
PITTSBURGH (+3½) at Carolina [NFL, Sun. Night Football]—Rested Steelers have the muscle,
QBing, and coaching to edge Cam (5 sacks last week) in Carolina

TOTALS:
OVER (41½) in the Baltimore-Cleveland Game—What’s this? The Browns suddenly have an offense?
OVER (51) in the Green Bay-Detroit Game—Packers’ offense came alive last week; Lions “over” 7 of last 10 at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

Pittsburgh at Carolina

The Steelers head to Carolina tonight and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games versus the Panthers. Pittsburgh is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21 Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/17)

Game 451-452: San Diego at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 137.307; Buffalo 136.513 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 49 Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Over

Game 453-454: Dallas at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.626; St. Louis 129.051 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 41 Vegas Line: Dallas by 1 1/2; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-1 1/2); Under

Game 455-456: Washington at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 129.664; Philadelphia 133.025 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 56 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6 1/2); Over

Game 457-458: Houston at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 127.949; NY Giants 134.441 Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 6 1/2; 45 Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 42 Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over

Game 459-460: Minnesota at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.850; New Orleans 139.351 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 13 1/2; 54 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 51 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9 1/2); Over

Game 461-462: Tennessee at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 133.195; Cincinnati 134.636 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7); Over

Game 463-464: Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.833; Cleveland 131.210 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 45 Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-1 1/2); Over

Game 465-466: Green Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.296; Detroit 131.573 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 52 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2 1/2); Under

Game 467-468: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 132.315; Jacksonville 120.903 Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6 1/2); Over

Game 469-470: Oakland at New England (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.591; New England 136.268 Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 43 Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 47 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+14 1/2); Under

Game 471-472: San Francisco at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 135.650; Arizona 130.782 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5; 47 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 42 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-2 1/2); Over

Game 473-474: Denver at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 135.616; Seattle 143.283 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 7 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-4 1/2); Under

Game 475-476: Kansas City at Miami (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 130.641; Miami 131.426 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 38 Vegas Line: Miami by 4 1/2; 42 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+4 1/2); Under

Game 477-478: Pittsburgh at Carolina (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 133.371; Carolina 132.532 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 37 Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 42 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL Picks

Ottawa at Saskatchewan

The REDBLACKS head to Saskatchewan today to face a Roughriders team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games in September. Ottawa is the pick (+12) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by only 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+12). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21 Time Posted: 11:00 a.m. EST (9/17)

Game 495-496: Calgary at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 121.944; Montreal 109.819 Dunkel Line: Calgary by 12; 45 Vegas Line: Calgary by 7; 48 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-7); Under

Game 497-498: Ottawa at Saskatchewan (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 104.860; Saskatchewan 114.205 Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 9 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 12; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+12); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLBetting Tips / Kevin

2 UNIT = Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles – OVER 50 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle’s Pick(s)

2 UNIT = San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals – UNDER 42 (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers have to be reeling after blowing a big lead against the Chicago Bears last week in primetime. Kaepernick did not look good at all, allowing the Bears to come back in the game late by throwing two interceptions at a critical point in the game. He simply isn’t going through his reads and seeing the field effectively. Kaepernick is zeroing in on his go-to option without reading the field much. The Bears aren’t a great defense, not even good in my view, but he will face a great defense against the Cardinals this week. The 49ers’ defense allowed 28 points, but that was due to the offenses careless mistakes setting the Bears up with glorious field positions. Drew Stanton has been confirmed as the starter for the Cardinals this week. It is nearly impossible to run the ball on the ‘Niners, as the Cowboys and Bears found out the last two weeks. They’re giving up only 86.5 yards per game on the ground. In 2013 they were 4th against the rush. Who was 1st? Look on the other side of the ball, the Arizona Cardinals. Kaepernick and Stanton are going to be in uncomfortable positions, where they’ll need to win the game with their arms. Neither quarterback are built for that. I don’t see many opportunities to gain yardage on the ground, though, so they may have to. This has the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle in Arizona. Take a look at the UNDER 42 between the 49ers and Cardinals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CULP SPORTS

Week 3 NFL 5 spot

Falcons -6 (W)

Colts -6

Saints -10

SF game UNDER 42.5

KC +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Wager Wire / Smartbets

456 Eagles – Under 51 1u

461 Titans +7 1u

468 Jax +7.5 1u

473 Seattle – Under 49 1u

455 Redskins +7 1u

458 Giants +2 1u

471 49ers -3 1u

7pt Teaser 1u – 460 Saints -3 477 Steelers +10.5