9-23-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeffrey James (YouWinNow)

MLB Play of the Day - Kansas City Royals +105

The Royals are in a heated battle for a playoff spot and they need to put the Indians away. A win here will go a long way toward doing that. Ventura has been better than Salazar all year long and he has been spectacular lately. The Royals are good on the road and good against right handers. Have to look the Royals way here at this underdog price

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Five to Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday September 23, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Could we actually not have a 40-homer guy in the majors this season (ahem, because cracking down on steroids and other drugs)? It’s possible. Nelson Cruz is likely the only guy with a chance as he’s sitting on 39. Houston’s Chris Carter is two behind him, so he would need a big week to win the home-run crown. Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton also has 37 and will win the NL crown, but he’s done for the season. Here’s a look at five interesting matchups on the schedule for Tuesday.

White Sox at Tigers (-260, 8)

Detroit is by far the biggest favorite on the board. The Tigers still have everything to play for — the AL Central title — while the White Sox are playing out the string. It’s left-hander David Price (14-12, 3.37) for Detroit. He has been rather inconsistent with the Tigers, who have yet to win back-to-back starts by Price. He allowed five runs and eight hits in 5.2 innings last time out in a loss to Minnesota. Price was roughed up in a start at Chicago while with the Rays back on April 27. He gave up eight runs and nine hits in six innings. Paul Konerko, who will retire when the season ends, hits .435 career off Price with two homers and seven RBIs. Scott Carroll (5-10, 5.01) takes the mound for the Pale Hose. He lost at home to the Tigers three starts ago, giving up 10 hits and seven runs in five innings.

Key trends: The Sox are 1-6 in Carroll’s past seven vs. teams with a winning record. Detroit is 8-0 in its past eight at home (entering Monday) against teams with a losing road record. The “over/under” has gone under in six of Carroll’s past seven on the road. The over is 5-0 in Price’s past five.

Early lean: Tigers on the runline and over at +100.



Mariners at Blue Jays (+161, 7)

This could be the final start of the season for Seattle ace Felix Hernandez and his final chance to sway Cy Young voters. King Felix is lined up to start again Sunday. However, if perhaps the Mariners have a wild-card spot locked up by then they obviously would save Hernandez for the playoff game. Hernandez (14-5, 2.07) beat Toronto back on Aug. 11, allowing just a run and three hits while striking out eight over seven innings. Colby Rasmus has Hernandez’s number, going 7-for-10 with two walks. Thus, he might get a spot start. R.A. Dickey (13-12, 3.82) goes for Toronto, which could be eliminated from playoff contention in this one. He lost to Seattle on Aug. 13, giving up two runs over six innings and walking four. Kendrys Morales is 5-for-15 with a homer and three RBIs vs. Dickey.

Key trends: The Mariners are 6-1 in Hernandez’s past seven on the road against teams with a winning record. Toronto is 2-5 in Dickey’s past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 8-1 in Hernandez’s past nine on the road. The over is 4-0 in Dickey’s past four at home.

Early lean: Mariners at -110 on the runline and under.



Phillies at Marlins (+108, 6.5)

The Phillies have to be kicking themselves for not trading outfielder Domonic Brown when his value was at its peak. That would have been after last season when he set career highs with a .272 average, 27 homers and 83 RBIs. That was clearly a fluke as he’s hitting just .236 with 10 dingers this year. Brown should be in the starting lineup Tuesday. He injured his right wrist while making a diving catch on Thursday in San Diego and hasn’t played since. Brown will face off against Marlins starter Henderson Alvarez (11-6, 2.82). He is 1-0 with a 1.87 ERA in five starts this year against the Phils. Brown hits him well, going 6-for-17 with two RBIs. Lefty Cole Hamels (9-7, 2.47) goes for Philadelphia. He is 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA in four starts against Miami. Marcell Ozuna has three homers in 21 at-bats off Hamels, but Ozuna has been shut down the rest of the way with an ankle injury.

Key trends: The Phillies are 6-1 in Hamels’ past seven. Miami has lost six straight vs. lefties. The Marlins are 11-1 in Alvarez’s past 12 at home. The under is 7-0-1 in Hamels’ past eight at Miami.

Early lean: Under at -110.



Pirates at Braves (-104, 6.5)

Don’t expect to see Atlanta outfielder Jason Heyward in the lineup, and he could be done for the year. He hasn’t played since Wednesday with a swollen thumb that doesn’t even allow him to properly grip a bat. Heyward has been a bit of a disappointment this year, hitting .272 with 11 homers and 58 RBIs. The shakeup already has started in Atlanta after another late-season flop. GM Frank Wren was ousted, but Manager Fredi Gonzalez appears safe for some reason. Left-hander Alex Wood (11-10, 2.78) gets the call here. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned in any of his past four starts. Wood took a no-decision on Aug. 20 in Pittsburgh, allowing two runs and four hits over seven innings. Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole (10-5, 3.85) has won three straight starts. He got a no-decision Aug. 20 vs. Atlanta, giving up two runs over seven.

Key trends: Pittsburgh is 6-1 in its past seven vs. lefties. The Pirates are 5-1 in Cole’s past six on the road vs. teams with a losing record. Atlanta is 5-1 in Wood’s past six at home vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Big fan of Wood’s but Braves have face planted. Take Pittsburgh.



Giants at Dodgers (-127, 6)

Strong pitching matchup for this ESPN nightcap game that will feature live betting at Bovada. This has the lowest total on the board, and you might even see it drop to 5.5. Lefty Madison Bumgarner goes for the Giants, who could potentially clinch a playoff berth. It’s pretty much a formality that San Francisco will be one of the wild cards. Bumgarner (18-9, 2.91) hasn’t lost since Aug. 8. I would presume he would be the choice to start that wild-card game, so I’m guessing this may be his last start of the regular season. He is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA in four starts against the Dodgers. Yasiel Puig is 6-for-20 with two solo homers off him. The Dodgers’ Zack Greinke (15-8, 2.76) hasn’t lost since Aug. 9. He is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA vs. the Giants. Hunter Pence has two homers off him in 21 at-bats.

Key trends: The Giants are 6-1 in Bumgarner’s past seven on road. The Dodgers have won six straight Tuesday starts by Greinke. The Dodgers are 5-0 in Greinke’s past five vs. San Francisco. The Giants are 5-1 in Bumgarner’s past six in L.A.

Early lean: Go under before it drops to 5.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

Kevin’s Pick(s):

I picked up 3.48 units last night going 2-1 with the White Sox winning as big underdogs. I’ve got three system picks going for tonight, including another 5 UNIT play.

5 UNIT = Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – RED SOX +1.5 (-145)
Listed Pitchers: Cobb vs Buchholz
(Note: I’m risking 5.00 units to win 3.45 units)

2 UNIT = Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres – UNDER 6.5 RUNS (-117)
Listed Pitchers: De La Rosa vs Erlin
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.71 units)

2 UNIT = Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – WHITE SOX TO WIN (+270)
Listed Pitchers: Carroll vs Price
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 5.40 units)



Kyle’s Pick(s)

2 UNIT = Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds – UNDER 6.5 RUNS (-110)
Listed Pitchers: Fiers vs. Cueto
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)

Another winner last night, making it 14 winners over my last 16 picks.

Mike Fiers didn’t assume a spot in the starting rotation until early August, however, he has definitely made up for lost time. He has yet to allow more than 3 runs per game in eight starts. Note that 3 runs against came only once. Understandably his ERA is rock solid, posting a 1.78 in 60.2 innings pitched. He’s been slightly better on the road as well with an ERA of 1.71, 0.95 WHIP, and .244 OBP. Fiers has been hot of late, too. In his last three starts his numbers read: 1.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and .260 OBP. Fiers is still trying to make a name for himself, but the guy opposite him has been doing what Fiers has been doing for quite a while now. Additionally, Cueto is untouchable at home. He has an overall ERA of 2.33, but it gets even better at home of 1.79, nearly identical to Fiers’ 1.78 ERA. Cueto doesn’t allow many to reach base either in Cinci, parlaying his excellent ERA with a WHIP of 0.85. No reason to expect many runs in this game, therefore, I like the UNDER 6.5 for Tuesday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DENVER MONEY

Russian Hockey

30518 HC Yugra -130

30542 SKA ST PETERSBURG -1.5 -165 (Line a little higher than I want, but they should easily win this game.)

30541 ADMIRAL VLADIVOSTOK vs. SKA ST PETERSBURG over 5.5 -130 (SKA could get 5 of these goals themselves)

30521 AMUR KHABAROVSK vs. AK BARS KAZAN over 5 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JackpotSoccerTips

ENG Cup
Everton +0.25



WinMatchDay

France 1
Marseille -0.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Brewers +108
A's(RL) -1.5(+122)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker

Baltimore
Cleveland
Milwaukee

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks

Carson K

2* Cubs
1* Blue Jays
1* Indians

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Dodgers -135
50* Cardinals -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Royals at Indians

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians (-109, 7)

The Kansas City Royals are looking safe to secure at least a berth in the wild-card race, but are once again turning their sights to the American League Central crown. The Royals will try to keep the pressure on the Detroit Tigers when they visit the Cleveland Indians for the second of a three-game series on Tuesday. Kansas City is one game behind the Tigers in the Central while sitting two games up on the Seattle Mariners for the second AL wild card.

Cleveland is not ready to give up its own postseason dreams and is 3 1/2 games behind the Royals for that coveted second wild card. The Indians briefly got the deficit down to 2 1/2 when they closed out the completion of a suspended contest before Monday’s regularly-scheduled game but failed to take another bite out in a 2-0 loss in the nightcap. Cleveland is down to the final five contests of its regular season and has two more chances to cut into the Royals before closing out the campaign against the Tampa Bay Rays.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, FSN Kansas City, SportsTime Ohio (Cleveland)

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Indians as -113 home faves but that is now -109. The total has held at 7.

INJURY REPORT: Royals – 2B Christian Colon (Out indefinitely, finger). Indians – RF Ryan Rayburn (Out indefinitely, knee).

POWER RANKINGS: Royals (-171), Indians (-161)

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-60s with clear skies. Wind bill blow in from right field at 5 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Yordano Ventura (13-10, 3.19 ERA) vs. Indians RH Danny Salazar (6-7, 4.02)

Ventura dominated through seven innings against Chicago on Wednesday, striking out seven while allowing one run on three hits to earn a win. The 23-year-old has permitted three or fewer earned runs in each of his last 10 starts and has picked up the win in four of the last five. Ventura yielded one run in a season-high 8 1/3 innings at Cleveland on July 4.

Salazar has been nearly as strong as Ventura of late and struck out nine while surrendering one run in 7 1/3 innings without getting a decision at Houston on Thursday. The Dominican allowed one or no earned runs in four of his last six turns. Santana last faced the Royals on July 27, when he picked up a win while yielding three run on seven hits in seven innings.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Royals are 6-2 in Ventura’s last eight road starts.
* Indians are 7-1 in their last eight games as a favorite.
* Under is 19-7-1 in umpire Ed Hickox’s last 27 games behind home plate.

CONSENSUS: 55 percent of bettors are behind the visiting Royals..

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

MLB Game: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Time: Tuesday 09/23 10:00 PM Eastern
Pick: Los Angeles -130 (moneyline)

No one has done it better than Zack Greinke when it comes to taking the mound as a home favorite. Over the last decade, he has struggled mightily on the road, but has been Superman at home. Greinke is a woeful 59-88 when he takes the mound on the road, but as a home favorite he is an amazing 74-27. He also fits into a subset of that home favorite record, which is a ridiculous 43-1. Those are hard numbers to ignore – especially on short odds. He also has a pedigree against the Giants where the Dodgers are 5-0 in his last five starts against them. The Giants have wilted as a dog in their last 26, carrying the burden of a 7-19 record, and it will be hard to overcome that in this one against the best in this role MLB has to offer. The Dodgers get this one behind Greinke at home.

[golden contender]

GC: MLB PLay

Tuesday card is led by the Triple Perfect MLB Game of the Month with a lead system that wins by an average 3 runs. There is also a Powerful totals system going. MLB Top Total cashed big on Monday. Free MLB Total below.




On Tuesday the Free MLB Totals Play is on the Under in the Baltimore at New York Yankees game. Rotation numbers 917/918 at 7:05 eastern. The Yankees beat Baltimore 5-0 here last night allowing just 2 hits as D. Jeter knocked in 3 runs. New York has gone under in 5 straight at home off a home win by 5+ runs. Baltimore has played under the last 4 times on the road off a road loss where they had 4 or less hits. There is a solid totals system in this game that has gone under 21 of 26 times since 2004, that pertains to teams that lost by 5 or more runs and had 2 or less hits. McCarthy for the Yankees has pitched under in 8 of 9 starts and has allowed 2 runs in 14 innings in his last 2 appearances vs Baltimore. In the series the series here 19 of the last 27 have stayed under. Look for this one to go under as well. On Tuesday the MLB Tripe Perfect Game of the Month takes center stage and is backed with a lead system that is undefeated and wins on average by 3 runs. There is also a Powerful totals system that averages over 12 runs on the card. Get both and Flatten your book big on Tuesday. For the free MLB Play take the Under in the Baltimore and New York game. GC

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Burns:

7* Seattle Mariners
10* Minnesota Twins
8* Los Angeles Dodgers

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Doc

mlb

5* Phillies-130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Charlie Sports

500*
Pirates over
Mets over
Cubs under