9-28-14

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AAA 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts

We've had two Chase races so far and seen two Penske drivers win. Is there any reason to suggest something different will happen this weekend at Dover? How about the fact that we have the all-time winner in track history coming in on a two race win streak there.

Jimmie Johnson has totaled nine wins over his career at Dover and grabbed one of his three wins on the season there in the June 1st race. Johnson was in the middle of his best run of the season. After winning the Coca-Cola 600, he won at Dover the following week and then again two weeks later at Michigan for his first win ever there. Since then, a span of 13 races, Johnson hasn‘t been back to victory lane. Could this be the week Johnson makes his move in the Chase?

No one has more Chase wins than Johnson and there isn’t a better track on the circuit Johnson could ask for. He’s taken a special liking to Dover’s high banked 1-mile concrete oval -- shaped like a big paperclip. Before the Chase started, Johnson even listed Dover as one of his advantages over others as to reasons why he would win his seventh season championship this season.

While he hasn’t been running his best since that mid-season push, he has shown improvements. In a seven race stretch after Michigan, Johnson didn’t have any top-5s that included two 42nd-place finishes, a 39th and 28th. But in the last six, he hasn’t finished worse than 12th and has three top-5s. No wins, but he’s improving, which is a good sign. Between his credentials on the track and his improvements, he deserves to be the favorite.

Since Dover is so unique, there aren’t a lot of other tracks to go off of like we do for layouts at New Hampshire or Charlotte, but I always take a peak at what happened on Bristol’s high-banked half-mile concrete layout. Three of the top-4 finishers from the June Dover race finished in the top-4 in the August 23 Bristol race. Dover is much faster, but the balance set-up appears to make them similar which is good enough for me when wagering.

It just so happens that Penske drivers had a big say in those two races. Joey Logano won the last Bristol race and Brad Keselowski finished second in both. Keselowski won this race during the 2012 Chase when he eventually won the title and Logano has finished 10th or better in his last five Dover starts.

Then you have Matt Kenseth who is still searching for his first win of the season. He's a two-time winner at Dover, the last in 2011, and finished third in the June race as well as third at Bristol in August. He'll need a little luck to win this week because of the Johnson and Penske trends right now, but he offers good enough value to make him one of those secondary selections.

Jeff Gordon is a four-time winner at Dover, but hasn't won there since 2001. However, he's been very good on the track over his past 20 starts there with a 12.3 average finish. He's finished fourth or better in three of his last four starts there.

Everything points to Penske winning again because of current circumstances, but Johnson is so historically good here that he gets the edge.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (6/1)
3) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
4) #20 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
5) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)

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Soccer

Burnley's lack of goals makes them solid Under bet
Andrew Avery

No team in the Barclays Premier League has scored less goals than promoted-side Burnley, and because of that, they've been a solid Under wager of late.

Burnley has just one goal in five matches and that goal came in their opening 3-1 loss versus Chelsea. In the four games since, there has been goal scored (Nathan Dyer is Swansea's 1-0 win) and the Under 2.5 goals is 4-0.

With three straight draws, Burnley face a stiff test away to West Brom. The Over 2.5 goals is +115, while the Under is currently -145.

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The Wager Wire / Waldo

Teaser 1u
Patriots +7.5
Falcons +7.5

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Inside the Stats - Week 4
By Marc Lawrence

It’s 3-for-3 in the NFL this 2014 season with no less than three undefeated teams still standing after the first three weeks of play. And at least two of the three teams – Arizona, Cincinnati and Philadelphia – will remain unscathed next week as the annual NFL Bye Week is now in effect with the Cardinals and Bengals sidelined this weekend.

As is our custom in this weekly report, let’s go inside the stats and analyze the numbers you won’t find on the scoreboard. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, September 22nd unless noted otherwise.

Inside the Stats

As you know, football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. The gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.

Here are the phony teams playing this week who won ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:

-- NFL: Chicago Bears (again), Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.

These are the teams playing this week who lost ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

-- NFL: New York Jets and Washington Redskins.

FYI: there are no games on this week’s card involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win.

Who’s Hot And Who’s Not

From a weekly NFL column that I author in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends on this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

-- Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 9-1 SU and ATS in his NFL career in division games when his team is off a SU and ATS loss in its last game.

-- Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in his NFL career on Monday nights in games in which his team is off a win of six or more points.

-- The New Orleans Saints are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine Sunday night appearances.

-- New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is 5-0-1 ATS in his NFL career in division games off his first victory of the season.

-- Teams who play and allow 35 or more points against Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers – the Carolina Panthers last week - are 0-7 SU and ATS in their next game.

-- The San Francisco 49ers are 16-2 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.

Stat Of The Week

The San Diego Chargers are 23-3-1 ATS all-time versus the AFC South, including 10-0-1 the last eleven games.

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Josh McCown (thumb) will try to play, but Mike Glennon likely to start
By Josh Katzowitz

After hurting his thumb last Thursday vs. the Falcons, it was reported that Buccaneers quarterback Josh McCown could miss several weeks because of the injury.

But hope -- a little sliver of it, anyway -- remains that he possibly could return to the field this Sunday vs. the Steelers.

Assuming McCown doesn't play, though, the team will turn back to Mike Glennon, who completed 17 of 24 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown vs. the Falcons.

Coach Lovie Smith said he still considers McCown to be the team's starting quarterback, but this still could be a good chance for Glennon to impress the coaching staff -- something he apparently hadn't done when Smith first got the job and almost immediately said Glennon would not be the starter.

When that happened, Glennon told reporters he tried to stay positive but that it was an adjustment going from playing full-time to sitting on the bench. But now it's likely he'll start, and Glennon said McCown is trying to make his life easier.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 4
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Saints are 11-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since September 28, 2008 as a favorite versus any team with more wins.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-13 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since December 25, 2010 coming a win versus any team with fewer wins.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Jeremy Maclin is 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) in his career coming off a home game where he had at least six receptions.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-12 ATS as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Jeremy Maclin is 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) in his career coming off a home game where he had at least six receptions.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-12 OU (-9.75 ppg) since Jan 13, 2007 as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams which are 1-2 after winning at least nine games last season are 35-55-2 ATS. Active against Indianapolis, San Francisco, New Orleans and Kansas City.

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Mike Missanelli:

Packers
Colts

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 4's best player prop picks
By SEAN MURPHY

You’ve got your side and totals bets in, but what about the long list of player props odds available at most books? Sean Murphy opens the doors to the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite picks to click.

Most passing yards

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) vs. Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears)

I like Aaron Rodgers in this matchup, simply because I believe the Packers will be playing from behind for much of the day, forcing Rodgers to air it out a little more often than the coaching staff would probably like.

Chicago is fresh off back-to-back road wins and while we'll see Jay Cutler take his shots downfield, I see this as Matt Forte's game. The Bears know they can pound away on a vulnerable Packers defense and ultimately wear them down. As much as Cutler likes to let it fly, he'll be kept under wraps, at least to a certain extent Sunday.

Take: Rodgers

Mike Glennon (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers)

I'll take a shot with the underdog in this matchup. After all, what do the Bucs have to lose at this point? There's little reason for them to hold anything back on offense and their strength lies in their passing game as long as their backfield remains undermanned.

It's not as if Mike Glennon is new to the offense. He saw plenty of playing time last season, and actually looked good for stretches. He knows that the starting job is essentially up for grabs at this point.

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense exploded in Carolina last Sunday night. However, unlike last week when they faced a 2-0 Panthers squad, here they'll be going up against a desperate Tampa Bay team that got embarrassed last Thursday night.

Take: Glennon

Most rushing yards

LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)

While Shady McCoy is looked at as one of the most electric players in the NFL, he hasn't exactly been at the forefront so far this season. That changes Sunday.

The 49ers defense isn't nearly as tough as it once was. With Nick Foles looking a little bit erratic in the early going, I'm confident the Eagles will give a heavy workload to McCoy Sunday afternoon, and I expect him to find success.

Frank Gore is still a workhorse, but he's not the 49ers’ only option out of the backfield. In this matchup, I see San Francisco taking more shots down the field rather than hammering away on the Eagles frontline. That's how they prevail on this day.

Take: McCoy

Most pass receptions

Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina Panthers) vs. Steve Smith (Baltimore Ravens)

It hasn't taken long for Joe Flacco to develop excellent chemistry with veteran receiver Steve Smith, effectively pushing Torrey Smith out of the picture as his go-to guy.

While the Ravens face a tough matchup in a fierce Panthers defense, Flacco won't shy away from throwing the football 30-40 times in this game. Baltimore's running game remains hit-or-miss and Smith will be out to show up his former club.

I'm high on Panthers rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin, but I'm also confident that his production will be erratic this season. The Ravens have a physical defense, and they'll key on Benjamin all afternoon long.

Take: Smith

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Sunday Night Football: Saints at Cowboys

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3, 53)

Buoyed by a sensational comeback at St. Louis last week, the Dallas Cowboys get a chance to avenge a humiliating defeat from a year ago when the New Orleans Saints come to town for a prime-time matchup Sunday night. The Cowboys erased a 21-point deficit to beat the Rams 34-31 but now must brace for a matchup against Drew Brees and the Saints, who blitzed Dallas 49-17 last season. New Orleans has won three straight versus the Cowboys but it is also riding a five-game road losing streak.

While the Saints have struggled a bit offensively the past two weeks, the Cowboys should be a welcome sight for Brees, who threw for 392 yards and four touchdowns while completing 19 consecutive passes in last season's debacle. Dallas allowed a franchise-record 625 total yards in the slaughter and has surrendered an average of 37.7 points during its three-game skid against New Orleans. The Cowboys had some off-field drama in the wake of Sunday's dramatic win, with cornerback Morris Claiborne bolting the team for one day upon learning he lost his starting job.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Saints -3. O/U: 53

LINE HISTORY: Both the spread of the Cowboys +3 and the total of 53 have yet to move since opening.

INJURY REPORT: Saints - CB Patrick Robinson (Ques-Hamstring), LB David Hawthorne (Ques-Ankle), C Jonathan Goodwin (Ques-Leg) Cowboys - DT Terrell McClain (Ques-Concussion), DE Anthony Spencer (Ques-Knee), LB Rolando McClain (Ques-Groin), DT Henry Melton (Ques-Hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-3.25) + Cowboys (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -1.25

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Saints off their first win this season and are road favorites for the third time this year where they are 0-6 ATS going back to last season. Dallas rallied from 21-0 deficit to beat St. Louis despite getting outgained by 108 yards. Cowboys 2-10 ATS at home vs. teams with losing road record." Matt Fargo

ABOUT THE SAINTS (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): New Orleans squandered a 13-point lead to Atlanta in the season opener and was victimized by a last-second field goal at Cleveland in Week 2 before holding off Minnesota 20-9 last week. Still, the Saints bogged down on offense after scoring touchdowns on their first two possessions and saw a 13-point deficit whittled to four before Brees tossed a scoring pass to Marques Colston early in the fourth quarter. Tight end Jimmy Graham has a team-high 24 catches to go along with two touchdowns and rookie wideout Brandin Cooks has lived up to the hype with 18 receptions. Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas will continue to split carries after leading rusher Mark Ingram suffered a foot injury in Week 2.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Tony Romo threw for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week for Dallas, which didn't abandon the ground game despite the three-touchdown hole. That resulted in another big day for running back DeMarco Murray, who ran for 100 yards and a score on 24 carries to become the fifth player in league history to begin a season with 100 yards rushing and a touchdown in each of the first three games. Dez Bryant, who has 20 catches for 247 yards and a pair of scores, torched New Orleans in an overtime home loss in December 2012, catching a pair of touchdown passes and establishing a career high with 224 yards receiving. Dallas is 21st in total yards allowed (360.3) after ranking dead last in 2013 (415.3).

TRENDS:

*Under is 6-0 in Saints last 6 games following a S.U. win.
*Cowboys are 7-20 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
*Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
*Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 61.76 percent are backing the Saints -3 and 71.3 percent are taking the over 53.

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Faves have been playing well in England

The Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 and though the line opened as the Raiders +4, bettors should make note as the fave has covered in five of the last six games in jolly ol' England.

This season marks the eighth consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England. In fact, there are three games to be held on British soil this season with the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions playing there on Oct. 26 and the Dallas Cowboys clashing with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Nov. 9.

There are a couple of trends through the first eight games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Dolphins versus Raiders game this weekend.

The favorite has covered in five of the past six matchups and is 5-3 overall in these games.

Last season, the Vikings shocked the Steelers 34-27 and covered as 3-point dogs and the 49ers destroyed the Jaguars 42-10 as 10-point favorites.

If you're looking at totals, the over/under count is 4-4 in the eight games and the over is on a three-game streak since the Pats and Rams went over the 46-point total in 2012.

The total in this weekends matchup opened at 41.

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Trend shows Packers a solid ATS play vs. Bears
Stephen Campbell

The Green Bay Packers have traditionally been a solid spread play when facing their NFC North rival Chicago Bears.

The Pack are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven matchups with Chicago. Aaron Rodgers and company invade Soldier Field Sunday afternoon for a date with the Bears.

Chicago is currently one-point faves with an O/U of 51.5.

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Ravens having issues covering at home
Stephen Campbell

The Baltimore Ravens have not been a good bet against the spread at M&T Bank Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Ravens backers will hope they can buck that trend when Baltimore hosts Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 NFL action Sunday.

The Ravens are currently 3.5-point faves with a total of 41.

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Under bettors profiting when Bucs-Steelers meet
Stephen Campbell

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a history of keeping the scores low. Four of the last five meetings between the two teams have gone under the total.

The Steelers will host the Bucs at Heinz Field Saturday afternoon. Pittsburgh is presently -7.5 faves with an O/U of 45 for the matchup.

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Titans struggling mightily ATS
Stephen Campbell

If you've been backing the Tennessee Titans to cover the spread in recent games, your bank account has taken a big hit.

The Titans are a paltry 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight games. Jake Locker's team visits the Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon.

The Colts are currently -7.5 favorites with a total of 45.5.

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Big Ticket
Under Jags