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My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SF 49ers at 4:25 ET. The Eagles (3-0) are one of just THREE remaining undefeated NFL teams following last Sunday's 37-34 home win over Washington. They’ve become the FIRST club in league history to win its first three games despite trailing by at least 10 points in each. Philadelphia has overcome repeated deficits and substantial offensive line attrition, for the team’s best start in 10 years (3-0 for the first time since a 7-0 start in 2004). "We stick together and there's a great camaraderie," said QB Nick Foles, who leads the NFL with 326.0 passing yards per game. "In the locker room during games like that, we lean on each other instead of blaming each other." The Eagles are second in the league averaging 33.7 PPG but there ARE concerns. Philadelphia is dealing with a lack of continuity along the offensive line after NO starter missed a game in 2013. Center Jason Kelce is the latest to be hit by injury and will undergo sports hernia surgery, likely sidelining him for at least eight weeks. Right tackle Lane Johnson is serving the last of a four-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance. Allen Barbre, his initial fill-in, broke his ankle in the opener against Jacksonville, and left guard Evan Mathis is set to miss at least six more weeks with a knee injury. "I don't have a level of concern," coach Chip Kelly said. "I just ask who's available, and let's play." It’s true Philly’s OL hasn't allowed a sack in back-to-back games but it IS making things more difficult for LeSean McCoy, who carried the ball 19 times for 22 yards against the Redskins. The 1.2 yards-per-carry average was the worst of his career in a game in which he ran at least 10 times. Head coach Chip Kelly prefers not to focus on the Eagles' slow starts but on their ability to finish strong and wear out their opponents. "The way the whole team played in the fourth quarter shows the type of conditioning we have," Kelly said. The coach also remains unconcerned with star running back LeSean McCoy, who is only averaging 2.9 yards per carry and has been outplayed by backup Darren Sproles (6.9 yards per rush). We’ll see. The 49ers have EVERY reason to be concerned after a 1-2 start. San Francisco won 28-17 at Dallas in Week 1 but was outscored 14-0 in the second half of that game. That disturbing trend has reached ‘critical mass’ the last two weeks as well, as the Niners have been outscored 21-3 (by Chicago at home) and 17-0 (by Arizona on the road) in each of the last two weeks (both losses). Doing the math, the team which has gone to THREE straight NFC championship games has been outscored 52-3 in the second half of its first three games in 2014! OK, should we ‘punt’ on the Niners? I say no way! The 1-2 Niners own the same three-game record for the second straight year after last Sunday's 23-14 loss at Arizona and are looking to avoid their worst start since going 0-5 in 2010. However, let’s NOT forget that they rebounded last year to win 11of their final 13 games en route to an NFC championship appearance. Harbaugh teams have gone 13-3, 11-5 and 12-4 these last three seasons (he arrived prior to 2011) and off those 12 regular season losses, the 49ers were 9-3 (75%) ATS in the following game. As noted, things didn’t go well last Sunday for the 49ers off their first loss of 2014 and I’ll admit it's not clear if this year’s team has the same resolve as recent 49er groups. All that said, the 49ers haven’t had back-to-back home losses since 2010 and last year in Week 4 (after a 1-2 start), the 49ers won 35-11 at St Louis. That victory sparked a 5-0 SU and ATS in which San Francisco outscored opponents 174-61. "We've been in this position before where there is an ebb and a flow to the season. We're in it now," coach Jim Harbaugh said. "That's the great challenge for our football team and I have great confidence that we'll attack it." The Niners don’t draw the Rams this time around but rather the 3-0 Eagles in this “must-win” situation but the bet remains the same. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 10* NFL Total G.O.M. (6-2, 75% run NFL 10*s)
My 10* NFL Total of the Month (Sept) is on Jacksonville/San Diego Over at 4:05 ET. The Jags opened the 2014 season by taking a 17-0 halftime lead against the Eagles and then proceeded to lose, 34-17. The Jags then lost 41-10 at Washington in Week 2, against a Redskins team which scored just SIX points in Week 1 at Houston, a team which had ended the 2013 season on a 14-game losing streak (note: Washington just lost this past Thursday 45-14 at home vs the Giants). When Jacksonville trailed 30-0 at halftime last Sunday in what turned into an en eventual 44-17 defeat to Indianapolis, head coach Gus Bradley’s “hand was forced” and he opted to bench veteran Chad Henne in favor of Blake Bortles. the NFL’s the No. 3 overall selection this past draft. Bortles was 14 of 24 for 223 yards with two touchdowns, two interceptions and one sack while also gaining 30 yards on two carries in his first pro action. Henne went 4 of 7 for 33 yards and was sacked three times. Bradley said after the contest that Bortles will start this weekend. "I just love his mindset," Bradley said. "I love the strength that he has. He is a tough, hard-nosed competitor and he will attack. And the team felt that part of it. It's no coincidence that all of a sudden we blocked a little bit better and the receivers played a little bit better. He has a way to uplift people and uplift the team." All of that may well be true but the Jaguars have been outscored by a league-worst 75 points this season. They had scored just one TD in their last 10 quarters before Bortles found Allen Hurns for a 63-yard TD in the fourth and Cecil Shorts III for a 10-yard score in the closing seconds. "It was definitely good to get some game action before you go into the week of practice," Bortles said. "So I mean kind of taking it one day at a time, try to learn from everything, every experience, situation you get put in and move on." However, Bortles won't be able to help the Jaguars defense. Jacksonville ranks dead-last in almost ALL major defensive categories, allowing league-highs in points (39.7 per) and yards (466.0 per). Breaking it down, the Jags also own the NFL’s most porous rush (160.0 YPG) and passing D (306.0 YPG), as well. All that hardly bodes well when visiting San Diego and QB Philip Rivers. He led the league in completion percentage (69.5) last season and is nearly on the same pace through three games (68.4) while throwing for 778 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. Mounting injuries in the backfield could force Rivers to take to the air even more, after Ryan Mathews suffered a sprained knee in Week 2 and pass-catching specialist Danny Woodhead (76 receptions in 2013) was lost for the season with a broken leg in last week's victory. Donald Brown carried the load for the depleted backfield by rushing 31 times for 62 yards last week. Looking at Jacksonville road games last season reveals the following. Taking away visits to the 2-14 Texans and 4-12 Raiders, the Jags allowed 32.2 PPG in their other six road games, with the average game score checking in at 54.3 PPG, about 10 points higher than this over/under number. No weather worries in beautiful San Diego and this game SOARS over!
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