9-29-14

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Scott Delaney

30 Dime Patriots / Chiefs Under

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Jason Jordan


"KC Chiefs +3.5 and Under 47.5
I am unloading on both. I have 500k on these 2 games."

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VegasButcher - Under 47 Chiefs/Patriots

The success of an NFL team can start and end with an offensive line. So far this season, both Pats’ and Chiefs’ O-lines have really struggled. KC ranks 31st with a 9.8% ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate) while NE is 18th with a 5.9% rate. Maybe that’s part of the reason why Brady ranks 25th in QB-Efficiency while Smith is right behind him at 26th. That’s out of 35 qualified starters through week 3. Brady is averaging a terrible 5.5 PY/A, the worst mark of his career and way below his career average of 7.4. Defensively, KC’s D-line ranks 3rd in the league with an ASR of 8.3% and NE’s is 13th with a 6.6% mark. Both of these defenses feature very good pass-rushers, capable of creating a lot of havoc on the O-lines. I doubt that we’ll see many big plays via the pass down the field, as I don’t think either team will have a ton of time to let the pass-plays develop. Naturally, I expect both to rely on the run-games. Charles is probable for this one, though his effectiveness might be at less than 100% while Ridley/Vereen are very good runners themselves. While New England comes in ranking #1 against the pass defensively, they’re only 18th against the run, and KC is 23rd in that area. Running the ball and controlling the clock might be the right game-plan for both of these squads and that favors a lower scoring game. I like this one to stay low scoring.

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GoodFella

3* Monday Night GOW - Kansas City

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Locksmith Sports (Adds)

Chairmans Play: 4* Kansas City/New England Under 47 -110

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Rooster
Kansas City +3 1/2

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Art Aronson
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs +3 +100 8:30 EST

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Jack Jones

20* New England

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King Creole NFL Total
double-dime bet
273 NEP / 274 KAN UNDER 46.5 Hilton
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Analysis:
Mondays have been All About the OVERS in the last three weeks. So far, Monday night games have gone 3-1 O/U so far this season. That changes tonight.
What has happned to Tom Brady? The main man of the Pats is now #23 in QB Ratings for the season (82.9) off 3 straight sub-par outings. His very LOW yard-per-attempt avg of 5.4 is #30 in the league, as he is no longer throwing the deep ball. His offensive line is putrid. And New England has YET to score a 2nd half TD this season! A Monday night matchup against the #25 QB (Alex Smith) means a LOW-scoring outcome… we’re ‘All In’.
The CHIEFS / PATRIOTS series has gone 0-4 O/U in the last 4 meetings, with an avg of just 38.0 ppg.
Give some credit to New England for a solid defense thus far. They’ve allowed only 13 total pts in their last 2 games.
1-9-1 O/U since 2005: All GAME11 or less road favs of < 7 pts (Pats) who allowed < 10 pts in EACH of their last two games.
On the fli…p side, the host Chiefs are off a shocking road win over the Dolphins.
5-17 O/U last 4 years: All underdogs of < 7 pts off a SU road dog win that also went OVER the Total (Chiefs). These teams have gone 1-9 O/U when the OU line is > 44 pts.
Kansas City plays the AFC West Division… New England plays in the AFC East Division.
Since 2008, AFC WEST Division home teams (Chiefs) have gone1-10 O/U versus an AFC EAST Division opponent (Patriots) in Game 10 or less when the OU Line is 40 or more points.
In this PRIMETIME game, we note that MONDAY night home teams playing off a SU underdog WIN (Chiefs) have gone 1-9 O/U when the OU line is < 51 points.
And on the flip side for New England:MONDAY night road teams playing off BB ‘Unders’ in a row (Patriots) have gone 1-8-1 O/U in the last four years when the OU Line is 48 > points.


The good old days of ‘Automatic Patriot OVERS’ are kaput. No SHOOTOUT in this one...

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John Anthony

Kc Chiefs and the Under

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blasscyk wins

Patriots -3

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Diamond Dog Sports

#274: Chiefs: +3.0 (-110) (1*)

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From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

New England (273) AT Kansas City (274)
Latest Line: Chiefs +3; Total: 47.5

The Patriots have won with defense the past couple of weeks, keeping opponents out of the end zone since less than five minutes into the first quarter of their game against the Vikings two weeks ago. Kansas City was led in its 34-15 win in Miami by RB Knile Davis, who carried 32 times for 132 yards and a touchdown in place of injured RB Jamaal Charles (ankle). The Chiefs return home for the first time since they were embarrassed by the Titans, 26-10, in the season opener. Charles and Kansas City safety Eric Berry (ankle) both enter the week as questionable for this one.

StatFox Six Pack:
KANSAS CITY is 6-17 ATS at home against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 27-13 UNDER at home in the first month of the season since 1992.
Andy Reid is 58-39 ATS as an underdog.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the L2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS away after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-10 ATS away after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.

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Fat jack

New England

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Exodus to Black

NFL

KC+3.5