9-30-14

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Wild Card Matchups

Athletics at Royals – Tuesday, 8:00 PM EST

Oakland: 88-74 overall, 40-41 on road
Kansas City: 89-73 overall, 43-29 at home

Probable Pitchers:
OAK: Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA)
KC: Shields (15-8, 3.21 ERA)

Season series: The Royals dominated the A’s by winning five of seven meetings, including three of four at Kauffman Stadium in mid-August. However, Oakland’s two wins came with Jon Lester on the mound, as the southpaw allowed six earned runs in those two starts, but the A’s outscored the Royals, 19-6 in those two victories. In the five losses, Oakland tallied just seven runs. James Shields beat the A’s twice, which included a magnificent eight-inning performance in a 4-2 victory at Oakland as a +150 underdog.

Season recap: Oakland was 57-33 on July 8, but stumbled to a 31-41 finish, which included a 10-23 stretch from mid-August through mid-September. Kansas City had a roller coaster season en route to its first playoff appearance since winning the World Series way back in 1985. The Royals were sitting below the .500 mark in the first week of June at 29-32, but pulled off a 10-game winning streak, which included a six straight road victories. Kansas City caught fire in August by winning 17 of its first 21 games, while coming down to the final day of the season with a shot to win the AL Central title.

Up next: The winner of this series will face the Angels in the American League Divisional Series. Looking ahead, the Royals split six meetings with the Halos this season as each team went 2-1 at home. Oakland and Los Angeles were pretty even as well, as the Angels went 10-9 in 19 matchups with the A’s, while L.A. won seven of the final eight meetings.

Giants at Pirates – Wednesday, 8:00 PM EST

San Francisco: 88-74 overall, 43-38 on road
Pittsburgh: 88-74 overall, 51-30 at home

Probable Pitchers:
SF: Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA)
PIT: Undecided

Season series: The Pirates went 4-2 in six matchups against the Giants, winning each series. The first three matchups at PNC Park in early May were all decided by one run, which included an 11-10 extra-innings victory by the Giants. The Pirates walked off past the Giants the next night in a 2-1 triumph on a Starling Marte triple in which he scored on an error. At AT&T Park two months later, the Pirates dominated the Giants in the first two victories by outscoring San Francisco, 8-1. The Giants avoided the sweep in the finale in a back-and-forth affair as both teams blew leads in a 7-5 San Francisco victory.

Season recap: San Francisco began the season on fire with a 43-21 record, which was capped off by a 15-3 run. The Giants stumbled to a 10-22 mark heading into the All-Star break, pretty much falling behind the Dodgers for good in the NL West race. The second half saw the Giants play around .500 baseball, but a key 6-1 stretch in early September, along with Milwaukee melting down, gave San Francisco the advantage in the NL Wild Card. The Pirates started slowly, putting together a 10-18 mark through 28 games. A 22-11 run by Pittsburgh through June and early July got the Bucs back on track, while the Pirates went 17-4 in September to clinch home-field in Wednesday’s Wild Card matchup.

Up next: The Nationals are waiting in the wings, which would make for some interesting travel if the Giants were to win on Wednesday. Washington dominated San Francisco this season, winning five of seven matchups, including three of four at AT&T Park in June. The Pirates took three of four from the Nationals at home in their first series, but Washington swept Pittsburgh in D.C. in September, which included a pair of walk-off victories.

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Wild Card format offers pitching mismatches in MLB playoffs
By MARC MELTZER

It’s playtime in the major leagues. The intensity of both players and fans goes up a notch. Heck, in some cities you’ll even see the first sellout game of the season. How bout that?! Playoff baseball is as good as the game gets. It’s also when I slow down my betting.

The first obvious thing with the MLB playoffs is there are less games being played each day. Less games played means that there are less opportunities to find mismatches to bet. In fact, the matchups can be as tight as any you’ll see all year in baseball.

These are the best teams in the league playing one another. We're not looking for mismatches when the Minnesota Twins play the Detroit Tigers. Having said that, the Wild Card games offer some mismatches during the Division Series.

In the past, each team was able to set their pitching staff exactly the way they wanted matchups to play out. All games in the first series would start with team ace versus team ace and so on down the line. That's still the case with the first series but the recent addition of Wild Card games mean that matchups in the following series aren’t exactly as those teams would like.

No matter who the Wild Card playoff teams start in their games, their pitching rotation for the next series will be out of whack. Eventually, there is potential for a large mismatch if the Division Series go long enough.

If the Oakland A’s make the playoffs as a Wild Card team, the chances are good that they’ll pitch John Lester in that game making him less available for the AL Division Series if they win. Likewise if the Kansas City Royals win the game they won’t have James Shields available to matchup against Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels in the first game of the AL Division Series.

Mismatches will continue for the next couple of games but should get back to normal for the World Series. I don't claim to be the smartest gambler around and look for obvious mismatches when I bet baseball. I'd rather bet a team that's +150 to +175 than a team that's plus or minus 110. This is why baseball betting is so attractive to me. I can win less than I do in football or basketball but win more money.

I rarely find value with series bets, so I've kept my MLB betting to a minimum during the playoffs. For a change, I watch the games as a fan. We'll see how things develop with the individual games but I'm happy sitting back and rooting for the Washington Nationals to cash my World Series futures bet from before the season.

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Matchups set for baseball's postseason
Andrew Avery

The Major League Baseball playoff matchups are set and the postseason will begin in Kansas City as the Royals host the Oakland A's in the American League Wildcard game Tuesday.

The National League will get their playoffs underway Wednesday as the Pittsburgh Pirates host the San Francisco Giants.

The winner of the A.L. game will face the Los Angeles Angels, while the N.L. winner will face the Washington Nationals in the Division Series.

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Bochy confirms Bumgarner to start Wednesday
Andrew Avery

To the surprise of nobody, San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy confirmed that staff ace Madison Bumgarner will start at the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League wildcard game Wednesday.

The southpaw was stellar all season long for the Giants, posting an 18-10 record and 2.98 ERA this season.

Bumgarner did, however, have one of his worst outings of the season against the Pirates. He lasted four innings, giving up five earned runs on six hits en route to picking up the loss in a 5-0 win for the Bucs.

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2014 Playoff Outlook
By Bruce Marshall

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Unlike the past two seasons, one team we are not fearing is the Oakland A's (5/1) , who had MLB's best record as of Aug. 8, but proceeded to lose 30 of their next 46 and had to wait until the final day of the regular season before clinching a postseason berth. It looks like GM Billy Beane made one move too many at the trade deadline, as dealing OF Yoenis Cespedes to the Bosox in the Jon Lester trade would significantly hamper the offense and remove its most-intimidating element; after leading MLB in runs scored prior to the Cespedes trade, Oakland has been the AL's lowest-scoring team. Midseason rotation additions Lester and Jeff Samardzija make it hard to dismiss the A's in a short series, but the offense has been too easily shackled minus Cespedes.

We are more wary of Oakland's wild card opponent, the Kansas City Royals (7/1) , who also have a parade of arms and an overflow of quality in the rotation led by James Shields and recently-dominating Danny Duffy. Though Kansas City is apt to slump at the plate, it has enough pitching to cause serious problems for any foe in a short series and gets to host the A's in Tuesday's wild card game at the Big K.

We do not believe the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2/1) have a smooth ride awaiting to the World Series despite their home-field edge as long as they stay alive in the postseason. Mike Scioscia has hinted that he could go with a three-man rotation (Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Hector Santiago should rookie Matt Shoemaker's oblique strain not heal in time) in the playoffs. But it's the Angels' win percentage vs. playoff-quality foes, hovering around .400 all season (compared to near-.700 vs. also-rans), that is a postseason red flag. Mike Trout's propensity for strikeouts (a whopping 183) is also too easily dismissed by his many supporters. Without the Astros, White Sox, Rangers, or Twins to knock around in October, the Halos might be more vulnerable than many believe.

If the Angels meet the Baltimore Orioles (3/1), it won't happen until the ALCS, and the Birds would have no fear of that matchup after taking 4 of 6 from the Halos this season. There has been some magic about this version of the O's, who have kept scoring runs and winning despite injuries to 3B Manny Machado and C Matt Weiters and the suspension of 1B Chris Davis. And while many wonder if the Birds have enough starting pitching (Bud Norris? Chris Tillman? Wei-Yin Chen?) to survive in the postseason, Buck Showalter has squeezed every possible ounce out of his versatile bullpen. If the relievers' arms haven't fallen off by now, they probably won't in October, either.

How about the Detroit Tigers (5/2)? Although having dealt with myriad bullpen issues in recent years, the problems seem especially acute this season as manager Brad Ausmus has shown less and less faith in erratic closer Joe Nathan as the season has progressed. Moreover, the staff seems a bit less menacing than recent years, with Justin Verlander having lost considerable velocity, and David Price proving inconsistent since his trade-deadline acquisition from the Rays. The Tigers need their offense clicking, because the rotation and bullpen have performed so inconsistently, which should give the edge to the Birds in the ALDS.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Sometimes, "addition by subtraction" really is meaningful in pro sports. And we suggest the injury to 3B Pedro Alvarez has in fact made the Pittsburgh Pirates (11/2) more of a postseason threat. It is no coincidence that the Pirates won 17 of 21 down the stretch with Alvarez sidelined and with do-everything Josh Harrison handling duties effectively at the corner. The Bucs have star power with Andrew McCutchen and a staff with plenty of momentum, as Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez have been two of the NL's hottest starters since the All-Star break. The Pirates just missed winning the NL Central, so they must go the wild card route, but they have postseason experience now after advancing from the wild card to the NLDS last season.

We suspect the Bucs are more of a threat than their wild card foe, the San Francisco Giants (7/1) , who have been playing sub-.500 ball (45-53) since early June, a far cry from their World Series winners of 2010 & '12 that hit stride following the All-Star break. The Giants must go on the road to PNC Park for Wednesday's wild card game.

We look forward to the rematch of last year's NLCS, this year a round sooner, between the Los Angeles Dodgers (2/1) and St. Louis Cardinals (7/1) . Interestingly, normally unhittable Dodger ace Clayton Kershaw was anything but in playoffs vs. the Cards last season. But even with Kershaw in untouchable form, the Dodgers performed in an uneven manner much of the campaign, barely getting above .500 at home until late in the season (though the Blue owns MLB's best road mark at 49-32), and there are depth problems in the rotation beyond Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Mercurial OF Yasiel Puig has also failed to smooth the many rough spots in his game that were exploited by the Redbirds last October. Considering the Dodgers' inside-out home-road pattern this season, perhaps it's a break for St. Louis to open the NLDS on the road.

If Adam Wainwright (1.62 ERA in five September starts) can outduel Kershaw in the opener, the momentum of the series shifts completely in St. Louis' direction. No team has fared as well in the postseason lately as the Cardinals, who can still manufacture runs effectively and own proven October forces in Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. Mike Matheny also has more bullpen options than Don Mattingly, though closer Trevor Rosenthal did blow six saves this season.

But if it's not the Pirates emerging from the in the NL, we expect it will be the Washington Nationals (2/1), who like the Bucs also have had a recent taste of the postseason (2012), though they would rather not recall blowing a 6-0 lead in the deciding Game 5 vs. the Cards in the NLDS. There is more experience and depth on the roster than in 2012, though we wonder about the offense beyond reliable contact hitters CF Denard Span and 3B Ryan Zimmerman. Manager Matt Williams was also forced to realign his bullpen, where the Nats fortunately have several options and recently anointed Drew Storen the new closer after Rafael Soriano began to wobble in August. The pressure is also on flamethrower Stephen Strasburg, who missed the playoffs due to arm problems two years ago. But Jordan Zimmerman is certainly in top form after no-hitting the Marlins in Sunday's regular-season finale. And the Nats earned home-field edge in the NL mainly because of MLB's best ERA, the NL's third highest-scoring offense, and arguably best defense of any contender.

It would not surprise us to see a Beltway World Series. But if the Nats have to hook the Pirates in the NLDS, we might eventually be treated to a rematch of memorable 1971 and '79 Fall Classics between the Bucs and O's instead.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tigers, Dodgers, Nats co-faves for World Series
By ANDREW CALEY

The 2014 Major League Baseball regular season has come to a close and the playoff field is set and three teams World Series odds stand above the rest as they strive towards the Fall Classic.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals are currently listed as the co-favorites to win the 2014 World Series at 9-2, according to the Westgate LV Superbook.

The Los Angeles Angels and the Baltimore Orioles have the next best odds at 5/1 and 7/1 respectively. The complete list is below.

DODGERS 9-2
TIGERS 9-2
NATIONALS 9-2
ANGELS 5/1
ORIOLES 7/1
CARDINALS 8/1
A'S 12/1
GIANTS 14/1
PIRATES 14/1
ROYALS 16/1

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Weather forecast for A's-Royals matchup
Andrew Avery

The weather forecast for Tuesday's American League wild card game between the Kansas City Royals and Oakland A's looks fairly ideal for a playoff baseball game.

Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium will see temperatures in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies overhead. Wind will blow across the field, slightly toward the outfield, at around 8 mph.

Oddsmakers opened the Royals as -110 home favorites and a total of 6.5.

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Royals 2-0 in Shields' two starts versus A's
Andrew Avery

The Kansas City Royals will send James Shields to the mound in their wild-card game versus the Oakland A's Tuesday, and he's fared quite well versus the American League West club this season.

Shields made two starts (one at Kauffman Stadium, one in Oakland) and the Royals prevailed both times. Shields earned the victory on Aug. 3 in Oakland, going eight innings, giving up four hits and two earned runs. He got the start at home on Aug. 14, but didn't factor in the decision in a 7-3 Royals win. In that game, Shields went six innings and gave up three runs on seven hits.

In his career, Shields has made 15 starts versus the A's and has a record of 6-4. He owns an ERA of 3.82 and has struck out 87 batters in his 103 2/3 innings of work.

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Jon Lester Excited To Start A’s Wild Card Game: ‘This Is Why I’m Here’
by Mike Cole

Jon LesterJon Lester probably expected to be in the playoffs this season, but he likely figured it would be with the Boston Red Sox.

However, Boston’s miserable season paired with the fact that Lester will be a free agent this season led the team to ship the left-hander to the Oakland Athletics. Lester is a big reason the A’s reached the playoffs, and he’ll get the start Tuesday in Oakland’s one-game wild card playoff game against the Kansas City Royals.

Lester is more than ready to get back to postseason work.

“Champagne showers never get old, but now its back to business!” he tweeted Monday morning. “Can’t wait to take the ball tomorrow! This why I’m here!”

The A’s actually struggled as a team after acquiring Lester in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline. Oakland finished the season with just a 22-28 record in August and September. That rough stretch cost the A’s an American League West title, which is why they must play for their lives in a one-game playoff Tuesday.

However, those issues are far from being Lester’s fault. The 30-year-old made 11 starts with Oakland and posted a 6-4 record. He didn’t get a whole lot of run support, but he was able to post a 2.35 ERA and struck out 71 batters in 76 2/3 innings of work.

The A’s have to feel good about handing the ball to Lester for the do-or-die affair in Kansas City. He’s coming off one of the best postseason performances in Red Sox history during the club’s 2013 postseason run. Lester went 4-1 in five starts last October, posting a 1.56 ERA with 29 strikeouts. He also owns a 2.11 career ERA in 76 2/3 postseason innings.

Lester went a combined 3-0 in three starts against the Royals this season with the Red Sox and A’s.

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Royals open as home faves in wild card game
Andrew Avery

The Kansas City Royals have been tabbed as -115 favorites, while the A's open as +105 dogs in the American League matchup. The total has opened 6.5.

In the National League, both the home Pittsburgh Pirates and visiting San Francisco Giants open -105. The total has opened at six.

The A.L. game is set to go Tuesday, with the N.L. game going Wednesday.

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Dodgers to face old nemesis in NLDS
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

LOS ANGELES -- Those guys again?

Eleven months after they were eliminated in six games in the 2013 National League Championship Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers will face the St. Louis Cardinals in another playoff series. The Cardinals clinched the NL Central division title on the final day of the regular season Sunday and will travel to Los Angeles for an NL Division Series beginning Friday.

"They've been a thorn for us the last couple years," Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said, recalling a loss to the Cardinals that eliminated the Dodgers from wild-card contention a few years ago as well as last year's NLCS. "The thing about St. Louis -- you know they play hard. They're smart. They play the game the right way and they've got Yadi."

Mattingly was referring to Cardinals C Yadier Molina. He is a powerful influence on the Cardinals' pitching staff, Mattingly said.

"There's a confidence with Yadi," Mattingly said. "I think he's part of the preparation you have to do when you're playing them."

The Dodgers will be facing the Cardinals with a more potent lineup this season. A year ago, Matt Kemp was not available for the postseason. This year, he has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball since the All-Star break, having finally recovered from shoulder and ankle surgeries the past two falls.

Kemp hit a two-run home run in Sunday's 10-5 victory over the Colorado Rockies in the regular-season finale. It was his ninth home run in September (the most in the majors) and 17th since the All-Star break (behind only Toronto's Jose Bautista and Houston's Chris Carter).

The Dodgers also have an added element in their offense -- speed. Dee Gordon made the post-season roster only as a pinch-runner last fall. This year, he led the majors with 64 stolen bases while batting .289 as the Dodgers' primary leadoff hitter.

"Yeah -- but we'll find out," Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw said. "I think we've got everybody pretty much healthy. As far as offensively, everybody's swinging the bats pretty well right now so we're going in on a little bit of a hot streak. That's good."

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AL Wild Card Odds and Pick
By: Micah Roberts

The Kansas City Royals make their first playoff appearance since winning the World Series in 1985 and welcome the Oakland Athletics, a team many once believed to be the best in baseball, in the AL wild-card game (Tuesday, 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS). The A’s made it interesting down the stretch by losing 20 of their last 30 games, but managed to survive. They bring their big hired gun – Jon Lester – to the match.

We couldn’t have asked for a better pitching matchup to kick off the playoffs. Anaheim awaits, so let’s play ball.

Oakland A’s (88-74) at Kansas City Royals (89-73)
Starters: John Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) vs. James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA)
Line: Royals -110, total: 6.5 (UNDER -115)

Here are a few notes on the game, as well as our selection:

Season series: Royals lead 5-2 (3-1 at KC). ...A‘s averaged 1.7 runs per game in the five losses, and 9.5 runs in the two wins. Both A’s win came behind Joe Lester.

Series trend: The UNDER is 12-4-1 in their last 17 meetings.

A’s total trend: A’s have stayed UNDER the total in seven of their past eight road games.

2014 return on investment: A’s -16.14 units, Royals +3.17 units (+21.8 units on run-line).

How did Shields fare against the A‘s in 2014? Shields was fortunate to face the A’s in the second half of the season, when the A’s weren’t the best team in baseball. In his first chance, Aug. 4 at Oakland, he beat Scott Kazmir, 4-2. On Aug. 14 at Kansas City, he beat Jeff Samardzija, 7-3.
“Big Game” James hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2008 World Series and lost his last two postseason starts, in 2010 and 2011 with Tampa Bay.

How did Lester fare against the Royals in 2014? He was a perfect 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in three starts, including an 11-3 road win over Jeremy Guthrie on Aug 12. He also beat them, 8-3, on Aug. 2 at Oakland. His other win against K.C. came when he was pitching for Boston, 6-0 at Fenway Park on July 20.

He gave up five runs (three earned) in his most recent start, a 5-4 loss to the Angels last Wednesday, but had allowed only three runs combined in his three starts prior -- all wins. All-time, Lester is 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA against the Royals. In 13 postseason outings, Lester is 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA.

Royals ready to keep rolling? Kansas City won six of its last eight games to close the season and went OVER the total in five of their last six road games, against the White Sox and Indians.

Oakland power outage: We could go on and on about the A's decline since the Lester trade, but why beat a dead horse. They are what they are now. However, it’s hard to ignore that prior to the All-Star break, the A’s were mashing the ball with 98 homers (seventh best in the majors) and a .251 average. After the break, they hit 48 homers (20th best) and just .233.

Who has the better bullpen? The Oakland pen has a better ERA (2.91) than the Royals’ 3.30 mark, but Kansas City converted an AL-best 82 percent of save opportunities. Only the Padres (84 percent) were better. It’s pretty much lights out with Wade Davis (1.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 13.6 K/9) setting up Greg Holland (1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 12.99 K/9) for the Royals. If the A’s don’t get the lead by the seventh inning you might want to sell your Oakland game and future wagers to anyone willing to buy it. The Athletics’ pen has blown 21 saves this season and has the third worst conversion rate (60 percent).

Situational trends: When the A’s have been a road underdog of even money to +125 this season, they have gone 2-11. When they’ve been on the road when the total is 7 of less, they are 4-15.

Conversely, the Royals have thrived at home under those same conditions, going 19-7 as a short favorite and 13-8 when 7 or lower is the posted total.

Lester is the monkey wrench in all this. He was -138 when beating Guthrie in K.C., and -170 and -155 in his home wins.

The Linemakers’ lean: We’re going to side with the home team here, largely because of the A’s hitting woes. Lester is tough to go against, and there is actually value on him in this spot, but he’s not the only consideration. Shields should be the favorite – he has a better supporting cast at this juncture. This has the look of a 1-1 game going into the eighth and the Oakland bullpen giving in first. We’ll take the Royals and UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

American League Wild Card Preview

The summer is over and now it's officially fall in the sports world as the baseball playoffs are here. There are four wild card teams that will face off on Tuesday and Wednesday. ATSWins.com will preview both matchups along with the two series that begin on Thursday and Friday. Here is a preview of the American League wild card matchup.

World Series Odds

Oakland 11-1
Kansas City 16-1

Opening and Current Odds: Kansas City opened as a -105-money line favorite and moved to -110. The total opened at 6.5 and remained there.

Betting Trends

Oakland
8-20 last 28 following a win.
4-10 last 14 playoff games.
1-5 last 6 vs. American League Central.
4-0 in Lester's four starts vs. AL Central.

Kansas City
13-5 last 18 during game 1 of a series.
3-8 last 11 following a win.
28-10 in Shields last 38 starts with four days rest.
4-12-1 last 17 matchups on the under bet in thsi series.

Last game: (8/14/14): Kansas City (-108) over Oakland, 7-3.

Pitching matchup: (LHP) Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) vs. (RHP) James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA)

Outlook

The winner of this series will take on the Los Angeles Angels. Kansas City has won five of seven against Oakland this season. The Athletics have completely fallen apart after they acquired Jon Lester from Boston at the trade deadline. They had to throw in outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, and their offense hasn't been the same. The Athletics are hitting just .241 and just .236 against left-handers. But that won't matter against RHP James Shields. The Royals hit .263 agaisnt right handers and average 3.98 runs per game against southpaws. The Athletics send Lester to the mound, who has plenty of playoff experience.

The Royals have hit .248 against Lester, while the Athletics have hit just .217 against Shields. Lester has allowed just six runs in three starts against the Royals with 20 strikeouts. Shields has allowed five runs in 14 innigns in two starts against Oakland and has won both games.

Kansas City ranks in the top of the league in both batting average and runs scored. They rank first in steals at 153, but 30th in home runs with only 95, so they need to manufacture runs. Lorenzo Cain leads the team with a .301 batting average to go along with 28 steals and 53 RBIs. Alex Gordon is the team's best overall hitter with 19 home runs, 74 RBIs, 12 steals and a .266 batting average.

Oakland is led by Josh Donaldson, who owns a .255 batting average with 29 home runs and 98 RBI. But they rank just 21st in batting average and they are fourth in the Majors in runs per game with 4.50. They do have 146 home runs (13th). This is not a good defensive team as they rank 31st in baseball with 111 errors, but their pitching staff ranks third in ERA at 3.22 and first in WHIP (1.14). This is a lineup that offers some power in Donaldson, Brandon Moss (25 home runs), Adam Dunn and Josh Reddick (12 homers, 54 RBIs).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CL - Matchday 2 Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

MatchDay 1 Results

The Champions League reaches its second matchday on Tuesday, and as predicted, we did not see many shocks in the first round of games. The only short priced favourite that failed to deliver was Chelsea, meaning it was a bad week for the bookies as punters queued up to cash in their accumulators. There are more close games this week, and the most appealing games appear to be PSG v Barcelona, Manchester City v Roma and Atletico Madrid v Juventus. Where last week we had five teams priced up at 12/1 or longer, this week there is only one - Ludogorets Razgrad at 14/1 at home to holders Real Madrid.

Let's handicap Matchday 2 of the Champions League.

The Banker: Chelsea to win at Sporting Lisbon at 8/11

Chelsea put in a slightly lazy, lacklustre performance to surrender a 1-0 lead to draw with Schalke 04 two weeks ago. However their domestic form has been superb. The Blues' only dropped points so far were in a draw at Manchester City - their hardest game of the season. Chelsea were utterly dominant in a 3-0 win against Aston Villa last weekend. This easy victory allowed Chelsea to substitute Eden Hazard, Oscar and Diego Costa, making it likely that the trio will start at the Estadio Jose Alvalade. Against Schalke, Chelsea were held back by Didier Drogba starting up front. While still a useful asset off the pitch, Drogba looked like what he is against Schalke: a 36-year old coming off an okay spell in a league significantly worse than the Premier League.

After the draw with Schalke, Chelsea now have more pressure on them for this fixture, which usually brings out the best in them. And they face a fairly mediocre Sporting side. The men from Lisbon have drawn four of their six league games, as well as playing out a 1-1 draw with Maribor in their first group stage game. If Chelsea are on their game (and, with Costa and Hazard in great form, they should be), don't expect too much resistance from Sporting.

The Solid Bet: PSG to draw with Barcelona at 13/5

This is my selection mainly due to the excellent defences of both teams. Barcelona are yet to concede all season (quite a change from the porous days of Tito Vilanova and Geraldo Martino), while PSG have conceded just six in nine games.

Games like these are always assumed to be high-scoring. With little at stake (both teams will almost certainly qualify from the group), fantastic attackers on both sides and the general idea that 'good teams = good match, and good match = lots of goals' prevailing among punters. I'm going to go against the tide and predict a low-scoring game. While Barcelona dispatched Granada 6-0 last time out, they were astonishingly poor going forward in a 0-0 borefest at Malaga in the game before that. PSG have drawn five of their eight league games so far, and there is strong discontent in Laurent Blanc's camp.

Much of this ill feeling is to do with the drop in form of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who has not scored in four PSG games. While this may not sound like a lot, for a man with as good a record as Zlatan, and as big an ego as him, it is enough to cause some unhappiness. He and Lavezzi may well miss the game tomorrow. So back a draw, and also get on under 2.5 goals at 1/1.

The Outsider: Basel to beat Liverpool at 14/5

Despite losing many of their best players year on year, Basel's dominance of Swiss football continues. They are top of the table after ten games, while Liverpool have had a very poor start to their Premier League season. The Reds were pegged back by a last minute Everton equaliser in the Merseyside derby. They have picked up just one point from their last three games, and were awful in their first Champions League game, where they needed a last-gasp penalty to see off minnows Ludogorets Razgrad.

Strange as it may seem against a team with five European Cup wins, Basel are the more experienced side at this stage. Only Steven Gerrard remains a regular for Liverpool from their last Champions League campaign, while Basel have featured at the group stage for four out of the last five years. Their home record is excellent, with ten wins from their last 17 home Champions League games and, with Liverpool's indifferent form, they look well worth a bet on Wednesday night.

The First Goalscorer: Jose Salomon Rondon for Zenit St Petersburg vs. Monaco at 4/1

Jose Salomon Rondon has got off to a fantastic start this season for free-scoring Zenit St. Petersburg. He has ten goals in fifteen games and has been a crucial part of Zenit's fantastic start to the season. They have won eight and drawn one in the league so far, scoring 26 goals. Rondon has great service with the likes of Hulk, Oleg Shatov, Victor Fayzulin and Danny, and it is no surprise that he is banging in the goals.

Zenit have a history of underachieving in this competition, but they face a fairly weak opponent in Monaco at the Petrovsky on Wednesday night. The men from the Principality lie twelfth in Ligue 1 and were pretty awful in a 1-0 home defeat to Nice at the weekend. With Falcao and James Rodriguez gone, the team is a strange mixture of over-the-hill stars and journeymen. Not quite what their billionaire owner had in mind. The defence is tired and slow, and the Venezuelan Rondon should be able to exploit this.