9-30-14

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
Play On - Home teams (KANSAS CITY) with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL
206-122 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.8% | 61.8 units )
33-28 this year. ( 54.1% | -0.6 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 48-31 (+16.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.1) , OPPONENT (3.6)

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CL - Matchday 2 Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

MatchDay 1 Results

The Champions League reaches its second matchday on Tuesday, and as predicted, we did not see many shocks in the first round of games. The only short priced favourite that failed to deliver was Chelsea, meaning it was a bad week for the bookies as punters queued up to cash in their accumulators. There are more close games this week, and the most appealing games appear to be PSG v Barcelona, Manchester City v Roma and Atletico Madrid v Juventus. Where last week we had five teams priced up at 12/1 or longer, this week there is only one - Ludogorets Razgrad at 14/1 at home to holders Real Madrid.

Let's handicap Matchday 2 of the Champions League.

The Banker: Chelsea to win at Sporting Lisbon at 8/11

Chelsea put in a slightly lazy, lacklustre performance to surrender a 1-0 lead to draw with Schalke 04 two weeks ago. However their domestic form has been superb. The Blues' only dropped points so far were in a draw at Manchester City - their hardest game of the season. Chelsea were utterly dominant in a 3-0 win against Aston Villa last weekend. This easy victory allowed Chelsea to substitute Eden Hazard, Oscar and Diego Costa, making it likely that the trio will start at the Estadio Jose Alvalade. Against Schalke, Chelsea were held back by Didier Drogba starting up front. While still a useful asset off the pitch, Drogba looked like what he is against Schalke: a 36-year old coming off an okay spell in a league significantly worse than the Premier League.

After the draw with Schalke, Chelsea now have more pressure on them for this fixture, which usually brings out the best in them. And they face a fairly mediocre Sporting side. The men from Lisbon have drawn four of their six league games, as well as playing out a 1-1 draw with Maribor in their first group stage game. If Chelsea are on their game (and, with Costa and Hazard in great form, they should be), don't expect too much resistance from Sporting.

The Solid Bet: PSG to draw with Barcelona at 13/5

This is my selection mainly due to the excellent defences of both teams. Barcelona are yet to concede all season (quite a change from the porous days of Tito Vilanova and Geraldo Martino), while PSG have conceded just six in nine games.

Games like these are always assumed to be high-scoring. With little at stake (both teams will almost certainly qualify from the group), fantastic attackers on both sides and the general idea that 'good teams = good match, and good match = lots of goals' prevailing among punters. I'm going to go against the tide and predict a low-scoring game. While Barcelona dispatched Granada 6-0 last time out, they were astonishingly poor going forward in a 0-0 borefest at Malaga in the game before that. PSG have drawn five of their eight league games so far, and there is strong discontent in Laurent Blanc's camp.

Much of this ill feeling is to do with the drop in form of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who has not scored in four PSG games. While this may not sound like a lot, for a man with as good a record as Zlatan, and as big an ego as him, it is enough to cause some unhappiness. He and Lavezzi may well miss the game tomorrow. So back a draw, and also get on under 2.5 goals at 1/1.

The Outsider: Basel to beat Liverpool at 14/5

Despite losing many of their best players year on year, Basel's dominance of Swiss football continues. They are top of the table after ten games, while Liverpool have had a very poor start to their Premier League season. The Reds were pegged back by a last minute Everton equaliser in the Merseyside derby. They have picked up just one point from their last three games, and were awful in their first Champions League game, where they needed a last-gasp penalty to see off minnows Ludogorets Razgrad.

Strange as it may seem against a team with five European Cup wins, Basel are the more experienced side at this stage. Only Steven Gerrard remains a regular for Liverpool from their last Champions League campaign, while Basel have featured at the group stage for four out of the last five years. Their home record is excellent, with ten wins from their last 17 home Champions League games and, with Liverpool's indifferent form, they look well worth a bet on Wednesday night.

The First Goalscorer: Jose Salomon Rondon for Zenit St Petersburg vs. Monaco at 4/1

Jose Salomon Rondon has got off to a fantastic start this season for free-scoring Zenit St. Petersburg. He has ten goals in fifteen games and has been a crucial part of Zenit's fantastic start to the season. They have won eight and drawn one in the league so far, scoring 26 goals. Rondon has great service with the likes of Hulk, Oleg Shatov, Victor Fayzulin and Danny, and it is no surprise that he is banging in the goals.

Zenit have a history of underachieving in this competition, but they face a fairly weak opponent in Monaco at the Petrovsky on Wednesday night. The men from the Principality lie twelfth in Ligue 1 and were pretty awful in a 1-0 home defeat to Nice at the weekend. With Falcao and James Rodriguez gone, the team is a strange mixture of over-the-hill stars and journeymen. Not quite what their billionaire owner had in mind. The defence is tired and slow, and the Venezuelan Rondon should be able to exploit this.

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MLB

A's @ Royals-- AL Wild Card
Oakland is 7-4 in Lester starts (3-1, 2.57 in last four). Lester is 3-0, 2.61 against the Royals this year and is 6-4, 2.11 in 11 postseason starts.

Shields is 2-1, 2.14 in his last six starts, 1-0, 3.21 in two starts vs Oakland. He is 2-4, 4.98 in six postseason starts (with Tampa Bay).

A's played lousy from August 1 on, going 22-33 since acquiring Lester, but they played in playoffs last two years, are used to games like this.

Royals haven't been in playoffs since 1985, though Shields was in playoffs for Rays in three different seasons. Kansas City won six of its last eight games.

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Royals host A's in Tuesday's Wild Card Game
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox


OAKLAND ATHLETICS (88-75) at KANSAS CITY ROYALS (89-73)

American League Wild Card Game
First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Kansas City -110, Oakland +100, Total: 6.5

The Athletics visit the Royals in Tuesday's one-game-playoff AL Wild Card Game with the winner earning the right to face the Angels in the ALDS. Kansas City is making its first postseason appearance since 1985.

Oakland was baseball’s most consistent and hottest team for much of the season, but its trade of OF Yoenis Cespedes for starter Jon Lester was seemingly one step too far as it dropped quickly in the standings and nearly missed the playoffs. The A's were 10-16 over the final month of the season as they hit the fourth-fewest homers in September (12). OF Josh Reddick (.264 BA) is scorching hot entering the postseason though, with multi-hit games in six of his past eight contests in which he is 14-for-29 (.483) with two doubles, a home run, 8 RBI and four runs. The Royals made a strong push at winning the AL Central, but could not hold off the Tigers despite going 6-2 over the final part of the year. On the season, they were a tough matchup for pitchers, hitting .263 as a team (4th in the league) but failing to hit many homers with just 95; the fewest in baseball. SS Alcides Escobar (.285 BA) has been huge in the leadoff spot lately, bringing a nine-game hitting streak into the playoffs in which he is 17-for-40 (.425) with three doubles and 3 RBI. This game will prove if Oakland was smart to trade one of its top young offensive players as LHP Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) takes the mound for the visiting Athletics and will square off against RHP James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA) of the host Royals. Oakland must certainly be dismayed that it fell so hard to finish the season, and much of its issues were on the road, as the A's posted a sub-.500 record (40-41) away from home, but Kansas City is a pedestrian 42-39 (.519) in front of its fans. These two clubs have actually split their 22 games (11-11) over the past three seasons while the Royals hold an 8-5 edge when playing at home. In 2014, Kansas City was victorious in 5-of-7 games against Oakland, and took 3-of-4 at home in their most recent meeting where they outscored the Athletics 16-5 in the three wins. Both teams come into this game with a clean bill of health on the offensive side of the ball.

Jon Lester has been a stud over the past seven years with 15 or more wins and a sub-3.85 ERA in six of the seasons. His 2014 campaign was quite possibly his greatest, as he had a career-best ERA (2.46) while striking out at least one batter per inning for the first time since 2010. The lefty also had the best control (2.0 BB/9) in his eight-year career. He actually improved after his move to Oakland and went 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, while allowing seven homers in 76.2 frames (0.66 HR/9). Lester has turned in a quality start in each of his past 10 outings, including one against the Royals in which he gave up three runs on six hits and two walks over six innings while striking out nine in a winning effort. Overall in his career against them he has been tremendous, going 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and has allowed a meager one homer in 88 innings. Leadoff hitter SS Alcides Escobar (5-for-17, 2 doubles, 2 RBI) and OF Norichika Aoki (4-for-9, 2 RBI) have been solid against Lester in their careers while DH Billy Butler (4-for-28, 11 K's) and OF Alex Gordon (4-for-25, 10 K's) have been horrible in the matchup. Oakland’s bullpen has been outstanding this season with a 26-23 record, 2.91 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but going a woeful 31-for-52 (60%) in save opportunities. Closer Sean Doolittle (2.73 ERA, 22 saves) has blown four saves this year while recording an impressive strikeout rate (12.8 K/9) and walking a mere 1.2 batters per nine innings.

This is the type of game that the Royals acquired James Shields for, as he is coming off his eighth consecutive season of 11 or more wins and 200 plus innings, and he has an ERA of 3.85 or better in six of the past eight years. While his strikeout rate has declined to 7.1 K/9 over the past three seasons, Shields has been able to improve his control (1.7 BB/9), and has kept the ball on the ground with 45.2% of balls put in play being grounders. Shields has a quality start in nine of his past 10 outings, while his team is 7-3 in that time. Against the Athletics in his career, the righty is 6-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and was 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA over two starts this year while striking out a mere seven batters over 14 frames. OF Josh Reddick has owned the veteran in his career, going 7-for-22 (.318) with five extra-base hits (3 HR) and 5 RBI. Meanwhile, DH Adam Dunn (7-for-35, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 16 K's), OF Coco Crisp (3-for-24, 5 K's), SS Jed Lowrie (3-for-16, 4 K's) and 1B Brandon Moss (3-for-14, 5 K's) have not seen the ball well out of Shields’ hands. The relievers for Kansas City have combined to go 28-18 (.609) this season with a strong 3.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and have successfully converted 53-of-65 (82%) save opportunities. Greg Holland (1.44 ERA, 46 saves) has become one of the top closers in baseball while striking out a ton of batters (13.0 K/9) and has a .168 BAA.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Patriots (-3) on Monday and likes the A’s on Tuesday.

The deficit is 573 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo jonesing for KC ‘W’

Hondo hit paydirt again Monday night when the Chiefs took care of business, stomping the pitiful Patsies to reduce the dirty digits to 1,525 gubiczas.

Tuesday night: Mr. Aitch will stay the course in Kansas City and put a 10-unit investment on the one and only Jimmy Shields to out-duel Lester, aka Jonny Lager — 10 units on the Royals.

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Today's MLB Picks

Oakland at Kansas City

The Royals host the AL Wild Card game tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0 record in James Shields' last 4 starts as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 945-946: Oakland at Kansas City (8:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Lester) 15.497; Kansas City (Shields) 16.988 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Over

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Burns Baseball: 10* KC Royals

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Primetime Insiders - 1* Athletics

Oakland vs Kansas City

No play on our system but a lean towards Oakland +104. Lester is slightly overrated per our system and strikes out batters at an amazing 8.33 K per 9 innings. Lester might find it difficult to strikeout the Royals team which has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. Additionally, the Royals are a very patient team with the highest walk ratio in the league. Lester is all about three pitches his fastball (45%), cutter (33%), and curveball (21%). His best pitch is by far is the curveball which could give the Royals some trouble as they are very poor against this pitch.

KC is going to rocking on Tuesday night with its first playoff game in a long time and what a pitcher to send to the mound with James Shields. Shields is also slightly overrated with a very high strikeout rate as well sitting at 7.14 per 9 innings. The Athletics just don’t strikeout with one of the lowest in the league. Shields has four pitches he uses routinely with fastball (41%), cutter (24%), curveball (13%), and changeup (27%). If Shields gets too dependent on his fastball he could get into trouble against a very good fastball hitting Athletic team. Shields should find a lot of success with his cutter and changeup and the Athletics are very poor against these pitches.

Overrall our system likes the Athletics but it is tough to pick against the Royals at home for their first playoff game in along time. The total looks dead on with our system generating a total of 6.51.

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OMEGA SPORTS PICKS

1* Oakland A's +113

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Arthur Ralph
Trophy Play A's w/ Lester

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Teddy Covers

10* A's

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SOCCER BETTING MASTERS

Czech Republic » Pohar Ceske posty » Domazlice – Teplice
Opinion: Domazlice +2(Asian Handicap)

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VIP-PICKS

Exclusive VIP Tips
Middlesbrough – Blackpool
Tip: Middlesbrough -1, 1.5

Super VIP Tips
PSG – Barcelona
Tip: Barcelona -0.5

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EZWINNERS

2 STAR SELECTION – (946) Kansas City Royals -$104

(Risking $208 to win $200)
(ACTION)