10-5-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GILZTIPS

[460] Saints -10.5
[460] NO/TB O49
[465] Ravens +3 (+105)
[475] Bengals +3 (-120)
[456] Eagles -7 (-105)
Steelers -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

10* Atlanta +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DBT Algorithm

Bears +3 (-120) [3]
Texans +4.5 [3]
Bucs +10.5 [2]
Lions -7 [2]
Jags +7 (-120) [2]
Redskins +7.5 [2]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL STAT/SHEETS
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________


***** National Football League Information - Week #5 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
__________________________________________________ ____________

Sundays’ Week #5 Matchups
Systems Analyst James Vogel

#451 CHICAGO @ #452 CAROLINA - 1:00 PM
Turnovers were the primary reason for the Bears’ home loss to the Packers in Week #4, quarterback Jay Cutler threw a pair of interceptions as Chicago lost 38-17 despite outgaining Green Bay, 496 to 358, and possessing the ball for more than 36 minutes. The Panthers went to Baltimore and lost 38-10. These teams have played eight games against each other since the Panthers entered the league in 1995. Chicago is 5-3 straight-up in those games, but the Panthers are 5-2-1 versus the number. They last met October 28th, 2012, when the Bears won 23-22 as seven-point favorites. DeAngelo Williams (ankle) is doubtful for Carolina.

•KEY STATS
--CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the L2 seasons.
--CHICAGO is 3-15 ATS away vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 8-0 OVER after playing a game at home over the L2 seasons.

--CAROLINA is 55-23 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
--CAROLINA is 46-24 UNDER at home in the first half of the season since 1992.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CAROLINA is 5-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 5-3 straight up against CAROLINA since 1992.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--CAROLINA is 4-4 versus the first half line when playing against CHICAGO since 1992.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
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#453 CLEVELAND @ #454 TENNESSEE - 1:00 PM
While the Browns are coming off a bye week, the Titans lost 41-17 to the Colts in Indianapolis. Expect Cleveland to try to establish its running game in this one, as the Browns rank ninth in the league in rushing yards per game with 132.7. The Titans, meanwhile, go up against a Cleveland defense that is allowing 272.0 yards per game through the air and 153.7 on the ground, only Atlanta and Jacksonville are giving up an average of more yards per game in 2014. The Titans have won and covered in two straight against the Browns, in 2008 and 2011. Quarterback Jake Locker (wrist) is questionable for Tennessee.

•KEY STATS
--CLEVELAND is 9-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs over the L3 seasons.
--CLEVELAND is 19-8 UNDER after allowing 400+ total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.

--TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS at home after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 6-0 OVER after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games over the L3 seasons.
--TENNESSEE is 7-17 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TENNESSEE is 10-8 against the spread versus CLEVELAND since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 11-7 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992.
--9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--TENNESSEE is 8-8 versus the first half line when playing against CLEVELAND since 1992.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
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#455 ST LOUIS @ #456 PHILADELPHIA - 1:00 PM
The Eagles host the Rams on Sunday and they’ll be going for their fourth straight win and cover in this series, the last time the Rams beat the Eagles was on December 27th, 2004. In Week #4, the Eagles went to San Francisco and lost 26-21 thanks to four turnovers. Quarterback Nick Foles threw two interceptions in the game and will need to take better care of the football against a Rams defense that comes into this game ranked third in the NFL against the pass. St. Louis is 6-4 ATS when coming off a bye week over the last 10 seasons. WR Tavon Austin (knee) is listed as questionable for the Rams.

•KEY STATS
--ST LOUIS is 0-9 ATS away vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 7-0 ATS away vs. excellent kickoff return teams, 24+ yards per return over the L3 seasons.
--ST LOUIS is 0-9 ATS away vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992.

--PHILADELPHIA is 30-12 UNDER at home in October games since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS in home lined games over the L3 seasons.
--PHILADELPHIA is 5-16 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 7-3 straight up against ST LOUIS since 1992.
--7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--PHILADELPHIA is 7-3 versus the first half line when playing against ST LOUIS since 1992.
--8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
--Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
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#457 ATLANTA @ #458 NY GIANTS - 1:00 PM
The Falcons lost 41-28 in Minnesota last week while allowing 558 total yards to an offense led by a rookie quarterback who was making his first National Football League start. They’re now up against a Giants offense that scored six offensive touchdowns in a 45-14 road victory over the Redskins last Thursday night. The Giants lost to the Falcons 34-0 in Atlanta the last time these teams met, which was in 2012, but had won four straight straight-up against them prior to that blowout. Eight of the last nine games played between these teams have gone Under the total. WR Odell Beckham Jr. (hamstring) could make his debut for the Giants.

•KEY STATS
--ATLANTA is 3-18 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 11-2 ATS away after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.

--NY GIANTS are 39-22 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 24-11 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 35-20 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 6-4 against the spread versus NY GIANTS since 1992.
--NY GIANTS is 5-5 straight up against ATLANTA since 1992.
--7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--ATLANTA is 6-4 versus the first half line when playing against NY GIANTS since 1992.
--7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings.
--Road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York.
--Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New York.
______________________________________

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#459 TAMPA BAY @ #460 NEW ORLEANS - 1:00 PM
The Saints turned the ball over three times in a 38-17 beating at the hands of the Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday night. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, came back to defeat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 27-24, with Mike Glennon starting at quarterback and throwing a game-winning touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson with just seven seconds remaining. The Saints have won the last five games in this series straight-up and they’ve covered in four of those contests. The last time the Buccaneers beat the Saints in New Orleans was January 2nd, 2011. WR Mike Evans (groin) is out for the Buccaneers and S Dashon Goldson (ankle) is questionable.

•KEY STATS
--TAMPA BAY is 6-0 OVER in October games over the L3 seasons.
--TAMPA BAY is 8-0 OVER in weeks 5 through 9 over the L3 seasons.
--TAMPA BAY is 23-9 ATS away after a playing a game where 50+ total points were scored since 1992.

--NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite over the L2 seasons.
--NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 UNDER against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
--NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS in a home game where total is greater than or equal to 45.5 the L2 seasons.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW ORLEANS is 15-14 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 17-13 straight up against TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--17 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NEW ORLEANS is 16-14 versus the first half line when playing against TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--18 of 29 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans.
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#461 HOUSTON @ #462 DALLAS - 1:00 PM
These teams have met just twice since the Texans entered the league in 2002. The Texans beat the Cowboys 19-10 as nine-point underdogs in their inaugural game, but the most recent meeting was a 27-13 road victory for the Cowboys on September 26th, 2010. Dallas is coming off of a 38-17 victory at home over the Saints, while the Texans beat the Bills, 23-17. Houston’s 26th-ranked run defense will be facing a top-ranked Dallas rushing offense that’s averaging 165 yards per game on the ground. WR Andre Johnson (ankle) is listed as probable for the Texans in this one.

•KEY STATS
--HOUSTON is 5-19 ATS away versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.
--HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the L2 seasons.
--HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS away when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

--DALLAS is 32-14 ATS at home after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
--DALLAS is 22-7 OVER at home after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
--DALLAS is 10-2 ATS in the first half of the season over the L2 seasons.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DALLAS is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1992.
--DALLAS is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992.
--3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--HOUSTON is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1992.
--3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
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#463 BUFFALO @ #464 DETROIT - 1:00 PM
The most recent meeting between the Bills and Lions was November 14, 2010, a 14-12 win-and-cover at home for Buffalo while Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford was sidelined with an injury. EJ Manuel is out as Buffalo’s starting quarterback, and veteran Kyle Orton is in, Manuel completed less than half his passes and threw two interceptions in a 23-17 loss to Houston on Sunday. The Lions are coming off a 24-17 road win against the Jets and enter this one with the NFL’s top-ranked defense. Orton is 4-0 in his career against Detroit with four touchdown passes, no interceptions and a 102.2 passer rating.

•KEY STATS
--BUFFALO is 10-1 ATS off a road loss over the L3 seasons.
--BUFFALO is 44-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 5-16 ATS away versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992.

--DETROIT is 0-8 ATS off a non-conference game over the L3 seasons.
--DETROIT is 15-4 OVER off 3 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
--DETROIT is 29-14 OVER off a road win since 1992.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DETROIT is 2-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992
--BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT since 1992
--4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992

--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
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#465 BALTIMORE @ #466 INDIANAPOLIS - 1:00 PM
The Ravens defeated the Panthers 38-10 on Sunday, piling up 454 total yards in the process. The Colts also blew out their opponent, beating the Titans 41-17 at home thanks to 393 yards and four touchdowns from Andrew Luck. The last five meetings between the Colts and Ravens have gone Under the total. They last met in a playoff game on January 6th, 2013, when the Ravens won 24-9 in Baltimore. Luck threw for 288 yards in that game but was unable to find the end zone and threw an interception. Indianapolis has won the last five meetings at home between the teams, and they’ve covered in the last three.

•KEY STATS
--BALTIMORE is 75-53 ATS off 1 or more straight overs since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 12-1 UNDER away after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 18-4 UNDER after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.

--INDIANAPOLIS is 11-1 ATS at home after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS in a home game where total is between 45.5 and 49 points over L3 seasons.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 9-0 ATS at home vs. excellent kick return teams, 24+ yards per return L3 seasons.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANAPOLIS is 8-5 against the spread versus BALTIMORE since 1992.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 9-4 straight up against BALTIMORE since 1992.
--9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--INDIANAPOLIS is 9-4 versus the first half line when playing against BALTIMORE since 1992.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Indianapolis.
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#467 PITTSBURGH @ #468 JACKSONVILLE - 1:00 PM
The Jaguars fell to 0-4 both straight-up & versus the spread after a 33-14 loss at San Diego on Sunday. It’s the fourth straight season that Jacksonville has gotten off to a terrible start: The Jaguars went 1-4 SU & ATS over their first five games of 2011, 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS to begin 2012, and 0-5 both SU & ATS to start 2013. Since entering the league in 1995, the Jaguars are 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS when playing against the Steelers in Jacksonville. Pittsburgh is coming off a disappointing home loss in which it blew a late lead to lose 27-24 at home against the previously winless Buccaneers. Jaguars WR Cecil Shorts (hamstring) is questionable.

•KEY STATS
--PITTSBURGH is 7-0 OVER versus teams averaging <=70 rushing yards/game since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 27-14 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 50-31 ATS in October games since 1992.

--JACKSONVILLE is 0-8 ATS versus defenses allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over L3 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 1-11 ATS in the first half of the season over the L2 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 3-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--JACKSONVILLE is 14-8 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH since 1992.
--JACKSONVILLE is 12-10 straight up against PITTSBURGH since 1992.
--13 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--JACKSONVILLE is 11-11 versus the first half line when playing against PITTSBURGH since 1992.
--12 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Jacksonville.
--Steelers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Jacksonville.
_______________________________________

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#469 ARIZONA @ #470 DENVER - 4:05 PM
The Cardinals head to Denver to take on the Broncos Sunday afternoon with both teams fresh off bye weeks, Denver has won and covered in four straight games when playing after bye weeks. Arizona should have quarterback Carson Palmer back from a shoulder injury, which would bode well for a team that was able to pick up two crucial victories with journeyman Drew Stanton under center. These teams have met just five times since 1992 and the Broncos have owned this series, going 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in those games. They have won and covered in both home games and all five have gone Over the posted total.

•KEY STATS
--Bruce Arians is 22-10 ATS in all lined games.
--ARIZONA is 15-4 UNDER in the first half of the season over the L3 seasons.
--ARIZONA is 14-4 OVER after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992.

--DENVER is 15-3 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
--DENVER is 14-2 OVER at home vs. poor kickoff return teams, less than 19 yards per return since 1992.
--DENVER is 16-2 OVER vs. poor kickoff return teams, less than 19 yards per return since 1992.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DENVER is 4-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1992.
--DENVER is 4-1 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992.
--5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--DENVER is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
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#471 KANSAS CITY @ #472 SAN FRANCISCO - 4:25 PM
The Chiefs and 49ers have met just four times since the year 2000. The most recent meeting between these teams was September 26th, 2010, when the Chiefs won 31-10 as three-point home underdogs. The 49ers defense has been stifling at times this season, allowing just 217.5 passing yards per game and 69.8 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs will try to establish running back Jamaal Charles early, but could have difficulty against a tough 49ers’ run defense that’s one of only two in the league giving up an average of fewer than 70 rushing yards per contest. TE Vernon Davis (back) is questionable for the 49ers.

•KEY STATS
--Andy Reid is 16-4 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.
--KANSAS CITY is 18-6 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS away in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons.

--SAN FRANCISCO is 40-23 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over L3 seasons.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over L3 seasons.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS CITY is 5-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 4-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--SAN FRANCISCO is 3-3 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS CITY since 1992.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
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#473 NY JETS @ #474 SAN DIEGO - 4:25 PM
The Jets fly across the country to take on a red-hot San Diego team on Sunday. New York had just 336 total yards in a 24-17 home loss to the Detroit Lions during Week #4. The Jets are now up against a Chargers defense that allowed just 319 total yards in a 33-14 blowout over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chargers caused three turnovers in that game and will look to do the same against erratic New York quarterback Geno Smith. Philip Rivers has been on a tear over the last three weeks and now faces a Jets team that’s one of six in the league to have allowed opposing QBs to post a passer rating of better than 104 this season.

•KEY STATS
--NY JETS are 8-1 OVER against teams who commit 0.75 or less TO/game on the season since 1992.
--Rex Ryan is 15-2 OVER vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return with JETS.
--Rex Ryan is 9-1 OVER away in October games as coach of NY JETS.

--SAN DIEGO is 9-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the L2 seasons.
--SAN DIEGO is 0-7 ATS at home off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.
--SAN DIEGO is 26-6 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NY JETS is 6-3 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO since 1992.
--NY JETS is 5-4 straight up against SAN DIEGO since 1992.
--6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NY JETS is 5-4 versus the first half line when playing against SAN DIEGO since 1992.
--6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Diego.
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#475 CINCINNATI @ #476 NEW ENGLAND - 8:30 PM
The Bengals were undefeated heading into their Week #4 bye and now take on a Patriots team that got demolished (14-41) in Kansas City on Monday Night Football. Over the last three years, the Bengals are 2-1 straight-up and versus the spread coming off of their bye. The last time these teams met was in Cincinnati on October 6th, 2013, with the Bengals winning 13-6 as a two-point home underdog. New England allowed the Bengals to rush for 162 yards in that game and the Patriots will have their hands full with Jeremy Hill now a factor in the Cincinnati running game. When playing in New England since 1992, the Pats are 4-0 SU but 1-3 ATS vs. Cincy.

•KEY STAT
--CINCINNATI is 2-13 ATS away vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 19-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS in games played on turf over the L2 seasons.

--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER at home vs. teams with a completion pct. of 64%+ over the L3 seasons.
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 OVER at home vs. teams averaging 235+ passing yards/game. over L3 seasons.
--NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 OVER versus teams averaging >=350 yards/game over the L3 seasons.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CINCINNATI is 7-3 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-3 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992.
--5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NEW ENGLAND is 6-4 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1992.
--6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
_______________________________________

Monday, 10/6/2014

#477 SEATTLE @ #478 WASHINGTON - 8:35 PM
The Seahawks are coming off of their bye week, prior to which they won 26-20 in overtime against the Broncos behind 258 yards and two touchdowns passing from Russell Wilson. Wilson now gets to throw against a Redskins’ defense that allowed 300 yards and four touchdowns passing in a 45-14 home defeat at the hands of Eli Manning and the Giants last Thursday night. The last time these teams met was in the playoffs on January 6th, 2013. The Seahawks won 24-14 in Washington. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins saw time late in that game and went just 3-of-10 for 31 yards.

•KEY STATS
--SEATTLE is 21-8 ATS against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7+ passing yards/att. over the L3 seasons.

--WASHINGTON is 68-42 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 52-28 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 7+ passing yards/att. since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 10-26 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 6-6 against the spread versus SEATTLE since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 7-6 straight up against SEATTLE since 1992.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--WASHINGTON is 8-5 versus the first half line when playing against SEATTLE since 1992.
--9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

Indy/Baltimore Over
Atlanta Falcons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colin Cowherd Blazing 5

NY Giants
Bears
Buffalo
Jets
Redskins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 5

Bears (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2)— Carolina allowed 75 points in losing last two games after 2-0 start; they were outrushed 391-109 in losses and haven’t forced a turnover yet, after forcing three in each of their two wins. Chicago won both its road games, is 0-2 at home; go figure; they had 446 yards in home loss to Packers last week, but Pack scored five TD, kicked two FGs, never punted. Panthers are 10-5-1 as a home favorite under Rivera, 1-1 this year. Bears lost battle for field position in all four games, by 4-4-8-24 yards; they're 6-10-1 as road dogs since '11, but 2-0 this season. NFC South teams are 3-7 vs spread out of division, 2-5 when favored. NFC North teams are 6-6, 4-4 as underdogs. Carolina coach Rivera was a LB for Bears in his playing days.

Browns (1-2) @ Titans (1-3)—Tennessee lost last three games by 16-26-24 points after upsetting Chiefs in opener; they’ve turned ball over seven times in losses, while converting just 5-30 on 3rd down. Titans are 8-12-1 in last 21 games as a home fave, 0-1 this year. All three Cleveland games were decided in last 0:06, with all three going over total; three of four Titans games stayed under. Browns scored 21+ points in all three games, are off bye week. Browns are 6-9-1 in last 16 games as road dog, 1-0 this year. Titans are 7-3 in series, winning 28-9/31-13 in last two meetings; Browns are 2-3 in five visits here, with both wins by FG. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread out of division, 2-0 as underdogs; AFC South teams are 5-7, 3-3 when favored.

Rams (1-2) @ Eagles (3-1)—Concern with Philly OL after they didn’t even try to run ball in from 2-yard line with game on line in last minutes at SF Sunday. Even in three wins, Iggles trailed all three games by 10+ points; not sure Foles is 100% after big hit he took in Week 3 vs Redskins. Rams are off bye after blowing 21-0 lead at home to Dallas, losing 34-31; Davis has been pleasant surprise at QB, converting 13-24 on 3rd down, averaging 7.1/7.8 ypa in first two NFL starts. St Louis is 10-7 as a road dog under Fisher. Philly is 10-18 in last 28 games as home favorite; 4-6 under Kelly. Eagles won last three series games by 1-35-18 points; Rams lost five of last six visits here, but last visit was in ’08. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread out of division, 3-1 on road; NFC East teams are 7-4, 3-0 when favored.

Falcons (2-2) @ Giants (2-2)—Atlanta allowed 12.6/10.6 ypa in losing first two road games, allowing 65 points without forcing turnover (-5); they’ve scored 28+ points in three of four games, with home side covering all four. Falcons are 3-6 in last nine games as road dogs. Giants rebounded from 0-2 start by scoring 75 points in wins over Texans/Redskins, scoring nine TDs on 25 drives, forcing nine turnovers (+7) after being -6 in first two games. Big Blue is 8-3 in last 11 games as home favorites, 1-1 this year. Giants won four of last five series games, but lost 34-0 in last meeting in 2012, in Georgia Dome. NFC South teams are 1-5 vs spread in non-divisional road games; NFC East teams are 7-4 out of division, 3-0 when favored. Three of four games for both teams went over total.

Bucs (1-3) @ Saints (1-3)—Third straight road game for Tampa, historically an NFL soft spot, but Bucs showed life behind backup QB Glennon last week, rallying from down 24-13 to beat Steelers in last minute on road. Saints won only home game, lackluster 20-9 win over Vikings; they’ve forced just one turnover this year (-6), none in last three games, but won last five games with Tampa Bay, winning last three here by average score of 37-11. NO is 19-3-1 in last 23 games as home favorite, 3-0 in last three when laying double digits. Bucs are 3-6 in last nine games as a road dog; they've been outscored 72-17 in first half this year; two of their three TDs last week were on drives of less than 50 yards. Saint defense can’t get people off field; foes converted 27 of 56 (48.2%) on 3rd down against New Orleans.

Texans (3-1) @ Cowboys (3-1)—Underdogs are 25-8 vs spread in Cowboy home games in Garrett era; he is 6-20 as a home fave. Dallas scored 32.7 ppg in winning, covering last three games; they’re averaging 165 rushing yards for year, creating manageable 3rd down situations- they’ve converted 55.1% of their 3rd down plays. Houston is 6-10-1 in last 17 games as a road dog; they converted just 7 of last 26 on 3rd down, turning ball over three times in each of last two games, but defense scored go-ahead TD in last week’s home win over Bills. Cowboys won two of three series games, winning 34-6 in only game played here, in ‘xx. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-0 vs spread; AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread out of division, 2-4 as road dogs.

Bills (2-2) @ Lions (3-1)—Detroit fired Schwartz after last year; he is now Buffalo's DC; think this game means extra to him? Buffalo gave young QB Manuel quick hook, start veteran backup Orton under center here, after losing last two games; last week’s loss turned on Manuel’s red zone pick-6 that became winning 80-yard TD for Texans. Bills have only three TDs on last 11 red zone drives; they're 6-16-1 in last 23 games as a road dog. Detroit is 5-8 in last 13 games as a home favorite; they've allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, have converted 21-33 (63.9%) of 3rd down plays at home, winning both games by 21-12 points. Home side won last five series games; Bills lost three of four visits here, with last win in 1979. AFC East teams are 3-8 vs spread, 2-1 as road dogs. All four Buffalo games, last three Lion games stayed under total.

Ravens (3-1) @ Colts (2-2)—Indy scored 44-41 points in winning last two games (9 TDs on 23 drives) after starting year 0-2; they converted 15 of last 28 on 3rd down, forced six turnovers (+5) in two wins. Both teams have stretched out passing game in last two weeks; Ravens averaged 7.0/10.5 ypa in last two games, Colts 8.6/9.6- Indy has 16 plays of 20+ yards in last two games. Baltimore is 3-6-1 in last ten games as a road underdog, but won only road game this year, at Cleveland. Colts are 7-5 as home favorites under Pagano, 2-0 this year; they're 9-4 in this series, but lost 24-10/24-9 in last two meetings; Ravens are 0-5 at Indy, losing 31-3/20-3 in last two visits here. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-0 as underdogs. Last three Colt games went over the total.

Steelers (2-2) @ Jaguars (0-4)— Steelers are 11-21-1 as road favorites with Tomlin as coach, 6-18 as non-divisional road favorite since '05. Bad loss for Pitt last week, blowing 24-13 lead, losing in last 0:20 to Bucs after Brown dropped easy TD on flea-flicker when Steelers led 24-20. Penalties are issue for Pitt; they’ve been flagged 44 times for 387 yards (94.3 ypg). Jaguars have to win or cover, losing 44-17 to Colts in only home game; they’ve lost badly in field position this year (by 9-14-11-18 yards) and turned ball over three times in each of last two games (-6). Teams haven’t met since ’11; Pitt won last two meetings 26-21/17-13, won three of last four visits here. Jaguars are 6-19-1 in last 26 games as home underdogs; they lost only home game so far this year, 44-17 to Colts. Three of four games for both sides went over total.

Cardinals (3-0) @ Broncos (2-1)—One of NFL’s last two unbeaten as 7-point dogs? Arizona allowed 17-14-14 points in its three wins, and teams they beat are combined 7-2 in other games; their defense will go against Bronco squad that scored only 27 second half points in three games, but 17 came in last game, with Welker back from suspension. Arizona QB Stanton is 2-0 as starter for injured Palmer, but with only two TDs in eight red zone drives. Denver is 7-1-1 in series, but lost 43-13 in desert in last meeting in 2010; Redbirds are 0-4 in Denver, losing last two visits here by combined score of 75-13. Arizona is 4-2 as road dog under Arians; Denver is 12-5 in last 17 games as home favorite, but 0-2 this year. AFC West teams are 8-4 vs spread out of division, 2-2 as home favorites; NFC West teams are 5-5, 3-1 on road. All three games for both teams stayed under total.

Chiefs (2-2) @ 49ers (2-2)— You think Alex Smith is pumped up for this game, cast aside by 49ers after going 19-5-1 as their starting QB in 2011-12? Resurgent Chiefs scored 75 points in winning last two games, after scoring 27 in pair of opening losses; long travel on short work week makes this tough spot, though. 49ers allowed 21+ points in each of last three games, but all three TDs they gave up to Eagles last week came on special teams/defense. Home side won last eight series games, with four of last five decided by 14+ points; Chiefs lost last four visits here, three by 14+ points- their lone win here was in ‘76. AFC West teams are 8-4 vs spread out of division, 2-2 as home favorites; NFC West teams are 5-5, 3-1 on road. All four 49er games this season stayed under total.

Jets (1-3) @ Chargers (3-1)—Jets lost last three games since beating winless Raiders in opener; they’ve forced total of two turnovers in four games (-6). Gang Green is 26-59 (44.1%) on 3rd down, which is good, but with only 26 points n last eight red zone drives, at what point do they have to give Vick shot under center, before season slips away? Bolts are 2-0 at home, winning 30-21/33-14; they’re 3-1 as home favorites under McCoy. Chargers haven’t turned ball over in last three games (+4), averaged 9.7/8.9 ypa in last two games and have won field position by 7+ yards in every game. Jets are 12-14-1 as road underdogs under Ryan, 6-10-1 in non-divisional games. AFC East teams are 3-8 vs spread out of division, 2-1 as road underdogs; AFC West teams are 8-4, 2-2 as home favorites. Home side lost seven of last nine series games; Jets won four of last five visits here.

Bengals (3-0) @ Patriots (2-2)—New England looked old/slow in dreadful Monday night loss in Kansas City; remember they’re 26-9 vs spread in game after their last 35 losses and 24-17 vs spread in last 41 home games, 16-10 in last 26 non-divisional games- since ’05, they’re 1-1 as home underdogs. On first drive of each half, Pats gained total of only 65 yards on 28 plays, with no points. Bengals have yet to allow point on first drive of a half; they held all three opponents to 5.1 or less ypa and outscored foes 44-3 in first half of games- they are 20-10-1 in last 31 games where spread was 3 or less points. NE is 10-6 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less. AFC East home teams are 0-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread outside their division. All three Bengal games stayed under total.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Redskins (1-3)—Washington imploded in last game, turning ball over six times, converting 1-8 on 3rd down in 45-14 home loss to division rival Giants. Skins’ only win was over lowly Jaguars, now defending champs come in off bye. Seattle is 5-3 in last eight games as road favorite but lost only road game this year, at San Diego. Redskins is 3-4 in last nine games as a home dog; they won six of last nine series games- all three losses came in playoff games. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread outside division, 3-1 on road. NFC East teams are 7-4 vs spread, 3-2 as underdogs. Last three Washington games, two of three Seahawk games went over the total. Serious question: If you’re Pete Carroll, how much do you tell ESPN’s Jon Gruden in your production meeting, seeing as his brother coaches the Redskins?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary NFL Pick for October 5th, 2014

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Time: Sunday 10/05 1:00 PM Eastern
Pick: Game Total OVER 47 (-110) at Bookmaker

The Pittsburgh Steelers don't often let games get away from them, but they allowed a pretty bad Tampa Bay team to steal one behind a semi-rookie quarterback in the final seconds last week, and allowed it to happen at home. That made three of four Steelers' opponents that have scored 26 points or more. When those teams are Carolina, Cleveland and Tampa Bay, it appears as if the Steelers' defense no longer has much bite. Fortunately for them they face Jacksonville in this one. The Jags haven't been able to slow anyone down. Jacksonville has allowed 152 points in four games or 38 points per game, so the Steelers should be in the end-zone often in this one. Jacksonville is 7-1 to the OVER in their last eight after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game, and all four of their games have topped the total this season. Since Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 23-13 OVER as a road favorite. Play on the OVER in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Art Aronson

Seahawks / Redskins UNDER 45.5
Chicago / Carolina UNDER 45.5
Buffalo / Detroit OVER 44

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trev Rogers

Jets +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS

BREAKFAST CLUB carolina

3 GAME (ONLY 2 were posted) st louis, jacksonville

BLUE CHIP TOTAL jets/sd under

PERSONAL FAVORITE sf

MAIN EVENT new england

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINSPORTSNOW

Best Bets Program Report

NY Giants -4
Jets Over 43.5
Bengals -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Captainsplays

all 1 unit

Totals
Denver u48
Detroit u44
NYG o50

Sides
Cincy pk
Arizona +7.5
Cleveland +2
Tampa Bay +10.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman


6-Unit Play. Take #462 Dallas (-6) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
The Cowboys are red hot. This line has jumped from -4 to -6 and it could get higher. They destroyed the Saints on Sunday night and have won three straight games since the season opening loss to San Francisco. They are the biggest and best football team in Texas. They are going to want to show it. Houston is 3-1. But they were very fortunate to win last week. The Bills were going to take the lead in the second quarter when J.J. Watt took an interception the length of the field. That was a huge shift in that game. The Texans were blown out by the Giants on the road already this year. I think the same thing will happen here. Dallas will want to show its "little brother" who is boss and they will run up the score against Houston. Take the Cowboys.



3-Unit Play. Take #464 Detroit (-7) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
I like the Lions to blow out the Bills here. The Bills made a controversial move this week. They benched their starting quarterback even though they are 2-2. They are going to unproven Kyle Orton. Orton is a backup and hasn't been a consistent NFL starter for years. He has only been with the team for two months. The Bills have lost two straight after winning the first two games. Those two wins are starting to look like flukes for an organization that is in trouble. Detroit is 2-0 at home. They shut down Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers in those two games. They are coming off a big road win last week and they are 3-1 ATS so far this year. The home team has won five straight in this series and that dates back 20 years. I like the home team in this one.



4-Unit Play. Take #465 Baltimore (+3.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
This is a great underdog price on Baltimore. They are coming off a blowout win last week over Carolina. I think they can do it again on the road. The Colts have won their last two games by the score of 41-17 and 44-17. But those two wins came against two of the worst teams in the league with the Titans and Jaguars. If you go back and include the preseason the Ravens have gone 7-1 ATS this year. The Ray Rice distraction has helped this team come together. They are better offensively. And this Baltimore team is starting to really improve on offense. They have outgained all four of their opponents this year, even Cincinnati. The Ravens won the last two meetings in 2011 and in the playoffs last January. I think they do it again here.



4-Unit Play. Take #467 Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
The Steelers will bounce back. Mike Tomlin has been very angry all week. He has had to answer questions about being a ?players coach?. I think that he is going to crack the whip. The Steelers know they can't fall too far behind the Bengals and Ravens in the North. This is a very sad Jaguars team. They have lost by at least 17 points in all of their games. That includes losing by 27 points in their last home game. The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS and the books have not adjusted to how bad this team is. They have been outscored 151-58 so far this year. They have been outscored by almost 100 points already! The Steelers bounce back with an easy win here.



4-Unit Play. Take #469 Arizona (+7.5) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
I like the points in this game. Arizona is unbeaten for a reason. They have won three big games against three very good teams, beating San Diego, the Giants and the 49ers. I think that the bye week was a big help to them. It is helping the Cards get healthy. Denver sulked all through its bye week. They lost the rematch game with Seattle then they had to think about that for two weeks. Denver is 0-3 ATS so far this year and they have been outgained in all three games. That is a bad sign for a team like this. This is an aging Denver team and they have not been as good as advertised. They are just 1-5 ATS at home and the Cardinals are 5-0 ATS on the road. Arizona is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games. I think Arizona will beat them up like Seattle did. I think the Cardinals have a great change for an upset here. Take the points.



3-Unit Play. Take #474 San Diego (-6.5) over N.Y. Jets (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
The Chargers are 4-0 ATS this year and they are playing as well as anyone in the league. The Jets have lost three straight. There are major issues at quarterback and the coach could be a lame duck soon. The Jets have to travel across the country and that can take a toll on the players after three straight tough games against the Packers, Bears and Lions. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and already have big wins over the Seahawks and Jaguars. This team is hot. The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and they are 2-5 ATS after a loss. The Jets have major problems. The Chargers will make things worse and win big here.