10-6-14

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Norm Hitzges

SINGLE PLAY
Washington +7

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TheSportsLab

5 units on Washington +7.5 (-120)

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Behind The Bets

Redskins +7.5

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Fat Jack

Seahawks / Redskins Over 45.5

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DBT Algorithm

(2) Redskins +7.5

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NFL Tech Trends - Week 5
By Bruce Marshall

Monday, Oct. 6

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SEATTLE at WASHINGTON...Skins 3-9 vs. line last 12 since mid 2013 (1-3 for Jay Gruden). Seahawks 26-12-2 vs. spread overall since 2012. Seahawks, based on Redskins negatives.

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'Seahawks listed as MNF favorites

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (1-3)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line and Total: Seattle -7, Total: 46

The Redskins look to rebound from a bad Week 4 performance with a home victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks on Monday night.

Seattle is coming off its bye week, prior to which it won 26-20 in overtime against the Broncos behind 258 yards and two touchdowns from QB Russell Wilson, who faces a Redskins’ defense that allowed 300 yards and 4 TD passes in a 45-14 home defeat at the hands of Eli Manning and the Giants last Thursday. Washington has now given up 82 points and 828 yards during its two-game losing skid.

The last time these teams met was in the playoffs on January 6, 2013 when the Seahawks won 24-14 on the road. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins saw time late in that game and went just 3-of-10 for 31 yards. Four of the past six games played between these teams in Washington have gone Over the total.

In the past three seasons, the Seahawks are 28-12 ATS (70%) in all lined games, including 11-3 ATS (79%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle, however, is 7-18 ATS (28%) after a bye week since 1992.

TEs Jordan Reed (hamstring) and Niles Paul (concussion), OT Trent Williams (knee), LB Akeem Jordan (knee) and DE Kedric Golston (groin) are are listed as questionable for Washington.

Seattle is in pretty good shape injury-wise after its bye week, but TE Zach Miller (ankle) is out indefinitely, and both LB Bruce Irvin (ribs) and CB Tharold Simon (knee) are both questionable for Monday's game.

The Seahawks escaped their Super Bowl rematch with the Broncos in their last game, winning 26-20 in overtime at home. Their defense continues to be a nightmare to run against, allowing just 72.3 yards per game on the ground (5th in NFL) on an NFL-best 2.8 yards per carry. They’ll try to take Redskins top RB Alfred Morris out of this game and make Kirk Cousins beat them through the air. Cousins is coming off of a miserable performance, and Seattle’s defense will apply pressure early to prevent him from getting comfortable, but its pass defense has been lit up for 572 passing yards and 5 TD over the past two games.

Offensively, the Seahawks are all about controlling the pace of the game. They’ll feature RB Marshawn Lynch (234 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) heavily in the early going, although the Redskins are allowing just 87.0 yards per game on the ground (8th in NFL).

QB Russell Wilson (651 pass yards, 7.5 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) is likely salivating over this matchup. He’s thrown for two touchdowns in every game this season and could be even more effective against this Redskins passing defense that was downright embarrassing versus the Giants last week. Seattle’s head coach, Pete Carroll, will try to find clever ways to get the ball into WR Percy Harvin’s hands. The lightning-quick wide receiver leads the team in targets (17), catches (15) and receiving yards (106), and has the ability to hurt defenses as a pass catcher, but also with jet sweeps and wide receiver reverses. He is a dynamic open-field runner, who has gained 86 yards on just six carries (14.3 YPC) this year.

The Redskins will do everything they can to move past their horrible performance against the Giants in Week 4. QB Kirk Cousins (934 pass yards, 8.2 YPA, 6 TD, 5 INT) will need to look at the tape and find ways to take better care of the football. He was blindly throwing the ball around the field against the Giants and was responsible for five of his team's six turnovers with 4 INT and one lost fumble. If he does that again, the ball-hawking Seahawks’ secondary will do plenty of damage. WR Pierre Garcon (24 rec, 255 yards, 1 TD) is a key player in this game, as he’ll need to use his quickness to get open against the Seahawks’ zone. Garcon had just two catches for 28 yards against the Giants, but he also had a bad Week 2 and responded with 11 receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.

The Redskins will lean on RB Alfred Morris (316 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) plenty in this game. The Seahawks have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, but the last time these teams played, Morris rushed for 80 yards on 16 carries. Washington would be wise to stick with what was working the last time they played this team.

The tight end position is something to monitor in this game. Kirk Cousins loves to get his tight ends involved, but he could be without both injured TEs Jordan Reed and Niles Paul (21 rec, 313 yards, 1 TD) on Sunday.

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Seahawks or Redskins? NFL bloggers debate who will cover Monday night

The Seattle Seahawks had an extra week to prepare for the Washington Redskins as the two are set to square off on Monday Night Football this week.

Washington is coming off an awful 45-14 loss - as a 3-point fave - to the New York Giants last week, while the last time the Seahawks played, they registered a memorable overtime victory over the Denver Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch.

Oddsmakers opened the Seahawks as 7-point road favorites for this game and most shops are now dealing a 7.5.

In order to get a grasp on this primetime matchup, we’ve enlisted the help of those who know these teams the best. Expert NFL bloggers Rob Davies of Seahawks blog Field Gulls and Scott Jennings of Redskins blog Hogs Haven strap on the pads to debate not just who wins, but which team will cover the spread when the Seattle Seahawks visit the Washington Redskins Monday night.

WHY SEATTLE WILL COVER

Rob Davies writes for Field Gulls. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @FieldGulls.

Seahawks have won at FedEx on the big stage before

It's been less than two years since Seattle traveled to D.C. for a game with far greater ramifications than this one. The Seahawks beat the Redskins 24-14 on NFC Wild Card weekend in January 2013 and this after they'd looked shell shocked when staring at a 14-0 deficit before the first quarter had even ended.
Not only did Seattle score 24 unanswered points that day, but Washington then never ran a single play inside Seattle territory for the remaining three quarters. The Seahawks won't feel in the slightest bit intimidated on Monday night as they know they can win in the Nation's capital. Russell Wilson was still a rookie two years ago when leading that comeback. He's twice the quarterback he was then.

No more complacency in Seattle

The San Diego Chargers beat the Seahawks at exactly the right time. Maybe Seattle was looking past an inconsistent team to a matchup with the Broncos a week later. Whatever the reasons, that defeat instilled in Earl Thomas once again his "championship spirit" and he may as well have been speaking for the whole team. Yes, Washington was blown away by the Giants last time out, which has them ultra focused this week, but this is no longer a Seattle team that simply thinks it can beat anybody simply by showing up. The Seahawks are battle hardened all over again and won't be taking anybody lightly. The Chargers did a bad thing for the rest of the NFL.

One dimensional Washington?

If Kirk Cousins truly has shaken off his four interception nightmare against the Giants, then fair play to him. However, that's extremely unlikely and he faces the most vaunted secondary in the league this week. He looked fine against the Jaguars and Eagles, but Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor and Maxwell aren't the Jaguars or Eagles. An early pick could prove disastrous, but, even without that, the Redskins may opt to pound the rock behind Alfred Morris and Roy Helu...against a stout Seahawks run defense giving up just 72.3 rushing yards per game. The confidence Cousins has will prove pivotal to the outcome and the only way he'd feel more daunted this week was if the game was being played in Seattle.


WHY WASHINGTON WILL COVER

Scott Jennings writes for Hogs Haven. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @HogsHaven.

Redskins' injury report Is getting smaller

Last week the Redskins played on a short week with 17 players on the injury list. The entire defensive line was banged up and it showed against the Giants. Jason Hatcher was missing the burst in his first step last week while dealing with a hamstring injury, but he has been a full participant in practice. DeSean Jackson has been a full go this week, and looks ready to make some plays against his old friend Richard Sherman.

Tight Ends will find space against Seattle's defense

The Redskins top two tight ends, Jordan Reed and Niles Paul, will both be able to find openings against Seattle's defense. Paul was having a breakout season in Jay Gruden's offense until he was knocked out of the Giants game. Both will be listed as questionable for the game, but at least one will play and take advantage of a weak spot for Seattle.

The Redskins pass rush will get to Russell Wilson

The Redskins front seven was dealing with several injuries last week, but has had 11 days to heel between games. Jason Hatcher has been a force since the start of the year, and will disrupt Seattle's offensive line. Ryan Kerrigan leads the league in sacks with five, and should be able to add to that total Monday. The Redskins secondary is questionable, so getting quick pressure on the QB will be key to hanging with Seattle.

Join the debate. Which team covers on Monday Night Football: Seattle or Washington?

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Monday Night Football: Seahawks at Redskins

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (+7.5, 45)

The Washington Redskins will be hard-pressed to continue its dominance against the Seattle Seahawks when the clubs square off in the nation's capital on Monday night. Washington is 11-4 in the all-time regular-season series and has won each of the last six matchups, including a 23-17 triumph at Seattle on Nov. 27, 2011, in which Roy Helu Jr. accumulated 162 total yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks haven't defeated the Redskins since posting a 24-14 home victory on Sept. 20, 1998, when they still were members of the AFC West.

Washington's season has gotten off to a disappointing start, with Robert Griffin III going down with an ankle injury in the club's lone win in Week 2 and backup Kirk Cousins guiding the team to two straight defeats - extending his personal losing streak to five starts in the process. The reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks are coming off their bye week after registering a thrilling 26-20 overtime triumph over Denver in Week 3. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is off to a strong start, completing 60-of-87 passes for 651 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception over his first three games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened the Seahawks as 7-point road faves, but are now -7.5. The total opened at 46 and dropped to 45.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.

INJURY REPORT: Seahawks - RB Christine Michael (Questionable, hamstring), LB Bruce Irvin (Questionable, ribs). Redskins - DB Trenton Robinson (Questionable, ankle), LB Akeem Jordan (Questionable, knee), TE Jordan Reed (Questionable, hamstring), TE Niles Paul (Questionable, concussion).

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.75) + Redskins (3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7.75

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "There has been an interesting pattern this season in the NFL where teams are getting blown out on Thursday night, then bouncing back with a solid effort in their next game. It's happened each of the past two weeks with both the Steelers and then Buccaneers winning outright as an underdog after blowout Thursday night losses. It makes sense as these teams get a semi-bye week with the extra rest and preparation time. Washington is now in this bounce back situation as the Redskins were awful in their loss to the Giants with a 6-1 turnover deficit. Seattle is also in a good situation as they have the benefit of a bye week to recover and regroup after their high profile overtime win against the Broncos two weeks ago. Seattle should also be fully focused for this game especially since it's a national TV Monday night matchup." Steve Merrill.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Seattle will be without tight end Zach Miller, who is expected to miss several games after undergoing ankle surgery last week. Percy Harvin is proving to be a triple threat as he leads the team in both receptions (16) and receiving yards (106), has gained another 86 yards on six rushes and is averaging 20.1 yards on seven kickoff returns. Punter Jon Ryan was named the NFC Special Teams Player of the Month for September after averaging 48.3 yards on 12 punts.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Washington figures to put pressure on Wilson as it leads the NFL with 11 sacks, including five by league co-leader Ryan Kerrigan. The linebacker is one-half sack away from becoming the eighth player in team history to record 30. Alfred Morris needs 156 rushing yards to pass Mike Thomas (3,359) for eighth place on the franchise list and two touchdowns on the ground to leap past Cliff Battles (23) and tie Earnest Byner (25) for seventh.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games.
* Redskins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Monday games.
* Under is 7-1 in Seahawks last eight vs. NFC

CONSENSUS: 65 percent are backing the Seahawks

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Seahawks trending Under vs. NFC teams
Stephen Campbell

The Seattle Seahawks have been a fantastic Under play against NFC teams, as seven of their last eight games versus the conference have gone Under the total.

The reigning Super Bowl champions travel to D.C. for a date with the Washington Redskins in Monday Night Football action.

The Seahawks are currently 7.5-point road faves with a total of 45.

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Seattle covering with ease on grass fields
Stephen Campbell

Grass surfaces have equated to easy covers for Seattle Seahawks backers. In the Seahawks' previous eight games played on the natural surface, Seattle is 6-1 against the spread.

That's a trend their spread backers will hope continues when they take on the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field (a grass field) Monday.

Seattle is presently 7.5-point road faves with an Over/Under of 45 for the contest.

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MLB Preview: Dodgers (94-68) at Cardinals (90-72)

Game: 3
Venue: Dodger Stadium
Date: October 06, 2014 1:00 PM EDT


ST. LOUIS (AP) - John Lackey stepped to the podium, minus the obvious status symbols: his two World Series rings. No reason to brag.

'No, I don't wear them very much,' he said Sunday. 'Maybe to a wedding or stuff like that. They're a little big and a little flashy, not exactly my style.'

The St. Louis Cardinals acquired Lackey from World Series champion Boston at the trade deadline for occasions just like this, knowing NL Division Series game 3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers won't be too big for the 35-year-old right-hander. Lackey won a game in each series last fall, including the Game 6 clincher over St. Louis.

'Yeah, definitely take pride in that,' Lackey said. 'I want to pitch well this time of year, but things I've done in the past aren't going to help me tomorrow. '

Lackey (14-10) starts after the Cardinals split in California against Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Los Angele left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-7), recovered from shoulder irritation, makes his first start since Sept. 12.

Through an interpreter, Ryu thought it an 'almost zero percent chance' that the shoulder would be a factor.

'It's an honor for them to trust me with this tomorrow,' Ryu said. 'I don't want to let them down.'

Ryu pitched seven scoreless innings last year to beat the Cardinals in Game 3 of the NL Championship Series.

Manager Don Mattingly described the pitcher as 'pretty unflappable.'

'He seems to be that guy that nothing really bothers him,' Mattingly said. 'I'm sure he's a little, like everyone else, excited and anxious and all those things.'

Los Angeles was 0-3 at Busch Stadium in last year's playoffs, shut out twice. The Dodgers scored two runs and totaled 16 hits in 31 innings with no homers.

'Five-game series, things can go anybody's way,' closer Kenley Jansen said after striking out two during a perfect ninth inning that completed the Dodgers' 3-2 win that evened the series. 'Got to go there and steal one.'

The Cardinals did not work out after taking an overnight flight that touched down in St. Louis about 6 a.m. A tarpaulin covered the infield later Sunday when about a dozen Dodgers players, including Clayton Kershaw, played catch and ran sprints in left field under the lights.

Shelby Miller (10-9) makes his first career postseason start in Game 4 on Tuesday. Dan Haren (13-11) is the probable for the Dodgers, but Haren will also prepare as if he's starting Game 3 in case he's needed in long relief.

'Yeah, we have flexibility,' Mattingly said. 'We don't know what's going to happen tomorrow for us. Anything could happen with Hyun-Jin.'

The Dodgers could turn to Kershaw on short rest in Game 4 if they are facing elimination. Kershaw is favored to win his third Cy Young Award in four years after going 21-3 with a 1.77 ERA, but he has a 1-4 record and a 5.20 ERA in the postseason and twice straight has been pummeled by the Cardinals.

Ryu threw 43 pitches in a three-inning simulated game on Wednesday at Dodger Stadium. He lasted just one inning in his last start of the season, but Mattingly pointed out he's also thrown two bullpen sessions.

'It's not like we're just throwing him out there,' the manager said.

Still, stamina could be a factor, and the Dodgers have had middle-relief issues. Rookie Pedro Baez allowed Matt Holliday's three-run homer that put the Cardinals ahead 10-6 in the opener, and J.P. Howell gave up Matt Carpenter's tying two-run homer in the seventh inning in Game 2.

Unlike the Cardinals, who have All-Star setup man Pat Neshek ahead of Trevor Rosenthal, the Dodgers have had to mix and match.

'You just can't worry about that,' Jansen said. 'What happened yesterday happened. That doesn't happen very often.'

After a mid-September break to recharge from a dead arm, Lackey allowed three earned runs in 14 1-3 innings his last two outings. He'll be making his first appearance since Sept. 24.

Cardinals manager Mike Matheny wasn't surprised Lackey didn't take it well when he got skipped in September.

'Yeah, I've had some interesting looks and conversations,' Matheny said. 'Yeah, every time I go to take him out, I know it's going to be something. He's done a nice job of walking that fine line of making it known he'd like to stay in the game, but also not crossing that line.'

Lackey needs 3 2-3 innings to overtake CC Sabathia (107 2-3) as the active leader in postseason innings.

'I'm going to cut it loose. Whatever is in there is going to be in there,' Lackey said. 'Yeah, this isn't the regular season. We're not saving anything.'

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Trend shows Nationals have Bumgarner's number
Stephen Campbell

The San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals face off in the Bay Area for Game 3 of their National League Divisional Series Monday, and there's one particular trend bettors planning on wagering on the game need to be aware of.

Madison Bumgarner takes the hill for the Giants, but the 25-year-old is just 1-5 in his last six outings versus Washington. Doug Fister counters for the Nats.

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Cardinals lights out with Lackey pitching at home
Stephen Campbell

John Lackey will start Game 3 of the St. Louis Cardinals' Divisional Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch Stadium Monday, which will surely please Cards backers.

In Lackey's last 5 starts in St. Louis, the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0. After two games in California the series is tied 1-1.

Hyun-Jin Ryu will counter on the bump for the Dodgers.