10-10-14

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Today's MLB Picks

Kansas City at Baltimore

The Royals head to Baltimore to face the Orioles in Game 1 of the ALCS on Friday and come into the contest with a 6-0 record in their last 6 games as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10 Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (8/9)

Game 951-952: Kansas City at Baltimore (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 16.403; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.988 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 7 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Over

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BEN BURNS

MAIN EVENT - Stanford

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Today's CFL Picks

Hamilton at Toronto

The Tiger-Cats head to Toronto on Friday night and come into the contest with a 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 Friday games. Hamilton is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (10/9)

Game 291-292 Hamilton at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 115.862; Toronto 115.680 Dunkel Line: Even; 47 Vegas Line: Toronto by 3 1/2; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+3 1/2); Under

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CFL Betting Recap - Week 15
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorite/underdogs went 2-2 straight up in Week 15
-- Underdogs went 3-1 ATS in Week 15
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 15
-- Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 15
-- The 'over' went 3-1 in Week 15

Team Betting Notes

-- It was back to a score-fest in CFL play in Week 15, as the first three games of the week each went 'over' the total after the 'under' was 3-1 last weekend.

-- The East Division continues to gain respect late in the season after an embarrassingly slow start. Toronto (5-8) did the division proud with a 33-32 shootout win over Edmonton (9-5). Toronto has won back-to-back games against West Division teams, and they are 3-1 ATS over the past four.

-- The loss for the Eskimos in Toronto was bad news, but they were able to cover for a fourth consecutive game.

-- The freefall continues to Winnipeg (6-8), and Friday's loss to expansion Ottawa (2-11) might have been rock bottom. After starting out 5-1 SU/ATS, the Blue Bombers are now an inexplicable 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS during the past eight games. It doesn't figure to get much better at Edmonton Oct. 13, either, although at least the Bombers will be rested after a bye.

-- Speaking of those upstart RedBlacks, while their overall win-loss record might not show it, they haven't been that bad. They have now covered three of the past four games, and they are 4-3 ATS in seven games at home this season. Unfortunately for Ottawa, their next two games are on the road.

-- Calgary (12-2) continues to take down all comers, and they have blown open a three-game (six-point) lead in the previously tight West Division. The Stamps haven't lost to a West Division team since Aug. 1, and they have covered seven of the past nine.

-- Hamilton (6-7) started out 2-7, but they have rattled off four consecutive victories to vault into first place in the East Division. They surprised BC Lions (7-7) with a fourth quarter TD and come-from-behind win.

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
By David Schwab

The plot continues to thicken in this season’s race to the CFL Grey Cup Playoffs with eight of the nine teams still very much in contention for one of the six spots.

Last week in CFL action, Ottawa got things started by stunning Winnipeg 42-20 as a 3 ½-point home underdog. The total easily went OVER the 44 ½-point closing line. Calgary padded its lead in the West Division race with a 31-24 victory against Saskatchewan as a six-point road favorite in last Friday’s other game. The total went OVER the 46-point line in that contest.

Saturday’s two games kicked things off with Toronto squeezing-out a much needed 33-32 win over Edmonton as a 3 ½-point home favorite with the total going OVER the 54-point line. Hamilton maintained its one-game lead in the East in a 19-17 grinder against British Columbia as a four-point home favorite. That total stayed UNDER the 44 ½-point closing line.


Friday, Oct. 10

Hamilton (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) at Toronto (5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Point-spread: Toronto -3 ½
Total: 52 ½

Game Overview

Hamilton will now have to go on the road to get another important division win where it is just 1-5 straight-up (3-3 against the spread) this season. Tiger-Cats’ quarterback Zach Collaros threw for 367 yards against BC last week, but kicker Justin Medlock was the difference with five field goals on five attempts.

The Argonauts are well-positioned for a run at the division title with the majority of their remaining games at home; however they have failed to cover in three of their last four outings at the Rogers Centre. As good as Ricky Ray has been passing the ball this season with 3,430 yards and a league-high 24 touchdown throws, Toronto’s chances to win the East still hinge on improving a defense that is allowing 27.5 points per game.

Betting Trends

Hamilton has won four of the last five meetings SU, but it has failed to cover in four of its last six road games against Toronto. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings at the Rogers Centre.

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StatFox Super Situations

CFL | HAMILTON at TORONTO
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season
35-8 since 1997. ( 81.4% | 26.2 units )

CFL | OTTAWA at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (OTTAWA) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, when playing on a Saturday
55-22 since 1997. ( 71.4% | 0.0 units )

CFL | HAMILTON at TORONTO
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (HAMILTON) in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after outgaining opp by 120 or more total yards in their previous game
26-5 since 1997. ( 83.9% | 20.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

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Tiger-Cats' low scoring offense has led to unders
Justin Hartling

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats offense has been falling off the map over the past two months. The Ti-Cats have gone under in six of their past seven contests.

The team from 'Steel Town' is averaging 21.7 points per game and have averaged 40.9 ppg accumulative with their opponents over that time.

The total for the Ti-Cats and Argos is currently 52.5.

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NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 7
By Bruce Marshall

Friday, October 10

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WASHINGTON STATE at STANFORD
Road team has covered last five in series. Leach has covered six straight as visiting dog.

WSU, based on team trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at NEW MEXICO
Rocky Long vs. former employer. UNM 2-7 vs. spread last 9 as host. But Aztecs have failed to cover last five in series against Lobos (Rocky 0-3 since 2011).

New Mexico, based on series trends.


FRESNO STATE at UNLV
Rebs 0-2 vs. line as host TY after 16-8-1 spread mark as host for Hauck previous four years. Hauck 12-6 as Sam Boyd dog since 2010. UNLV 1-6 last 7 vs. line. Fresno 7-12-1 last 20 on board since late 2012 (but has covered last 3).

Fresno, based on recent trends.

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Game of the Day: Washington State at Stanford

Washington State Cougars at Stanford Cardinal (-17, 52.5)

The nation’s top-ranked passing offense will take on the No. 2 pass defense when Washington State travels to No. 22 Stanford for a Pac-12 matchup Friday night. The Cougars average 523 passing yards and fresh off a 60-59 loss to California in which Washington State quarterback Connor Halliday broke an NCAA record with 734 passing yards while throwing six touchdowns. The Cardinal are surrendering an average of 107.4 yards through the air this season and haven’t allowed at least 30 points in 27 straight games, the longest active streak in the FBS.

The Cougars have four wide receivers with at least six touchdown receptions this season led by Vince Mayle, who broke the program record in the California game by accumulating 263 receiving yards. Stanford will need to find a way to ratchet up its running game after totaling 47 rushing yards in a 17-14 loss last week to No. 5 Notre Dame, its fewest since 2007. Remound Wright will likely continue as the starting running back for Stanford, but Barry Sanders could be in line for extra carries if Wright continues to struggle.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line has held steady with Stanford as 17-point home favorites. The total has been bet down considerably from 55 to 52.5.

INJURY REPORT: Washington State - WR Gabe Marks (out indefinitely, head). Stanford - DT Ikenna Nwafor (out for season, undisclosed).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a great night for football with temperatures in the low 70s with low humidity. There will be a slight five mile per hour wind blowing towards the southeast end zone.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "When the Washington State Cougars take on Stanford at The Farm Friday night, we'll see the nation's leading passer matched up against the Cardinal's top ranked defense. Last week Halliday threw for an FBS record 724 yards, and the Cougars still lost at home to Cal." - Jesse Schule.

WHAT BOOKS SAY:

ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (2-4, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U): The Cougars gave up two kickoff returns for touchdowns against California and a punt return for a score the week before in another one-point loss to Utah, leading to the dismissal of special teams coach Erik Russell. Quentin Breshears also missed a 19-yard field goal with 15 seconds left against the Golden Bears, which would have lifted Washington State to the win. Breshears also missed a 29-yarder last month in a seven-point loss to No. 11 Oregon.

ABOUT STANFORD (3-2, 2-3 ATS, 0-4 O/U): Ty Montgomery has been kept in check the last two games and that’s one of the reasons the Cardinal has had trouble moving the ball. The 6-2, 215-pound wide receiver caught 22 passes through the first three games but has totaled just four in each of the last two, gaining less than 30 yards in both games. He remains on pace to better last season’s total of 61 catches but is averaging just 9.6 yards a reception and has scored three touchdowns, well off the 15.7 average and 10 scores he finished with last season.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.
* Washington State is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Stanford.

CONSENSUS: Just over 57 percent of wagers are backing Washington State at +17.

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Sloppy conditions in store for Red River Rivalry
Justin Hartling

Oklahoma and Texas are set to do battle in another chapter in the Red River Rivalry, but conditions will be far from optimal. Starting late Friday night a thunderstorm is set to drop 2-3 inches of rain on the Cotton Bowl.

The clouds and thundershowers are expected to last all-day Saturday and will create messy field conditions for the Sooners and Longhorns.

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NCAAF

Friday's games

Stanford is off pair of tough road games; they've scored only 44 points in first three Pac-12 (1-2) tilts. Cardinal won last six games vs Washington State (4-2 vs spread); favorites covered Wazzu's last four visits to Farm, losing last three by 38-30-26 points. Coogs covered last six games as a road underdog- they scored 59 points last week but lost, missing 19-yard FG at gun; that and Cal's two kick returns for TDs cost special teams coach his job. Halladay threw for I-A record 734 yards for Wazzu.

San Diego State won last four games vs New Mexico but Lobos covered all four games; underdogs covered six of last eight in series. Aztecs lost four of last five visits here, winning 30-20 in last visit; they're 0-3 away from home this year, losing by 4-21-11 points, and 5-10-1 as favorites on road in last 10+ years, but 4-4 under Long. Road team is 5-0 SU this year in New Mexico games- they won as 16-point dogs last week. Lobos are 2-7 as home underdogs under Davie, 0-2 this season.

Fresno State won last three games after 0-3 start, winning last two by 11 points each; Bulldogs are 6-2-1 as road favorites under DeRuyter, 1-0 so far this year- they racked up 641 yards in a 38-14 (-25) win over UNLV last year. Mountain West favorites are 6-4 vs spread in league play, 3-2 on road. UNLV is 0-5 vs I-A teams, with closest loss 48-34; Rebels are 12-6-1 as home dogs under Hauck, 0-1 this year- they've allowed 33 or more points and 257+ rushing yards in all five I-A games.

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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | MIAMI OHIO at AKRON
Play Against - Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI OHIO) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

CFB | MASSACHUSETTS at KENT ST
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (KENT ST) poor rushing team - averaging 125 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
194-126 over the last 10 seasons. ( 60.6% | 0.0 units )
8-2 this year. ( 80.0% | 0.0 units )

CFB | MIAMI OHIO at AKRON
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 25 and 28 after a win by 6 or less points
89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
4-4 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.4 units )

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MLB LCS Cheat Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

ALCS: Kansas City vs. Baltimore

Records:
KC: 93-73 overall, 44-39 home, 49-34 road
BAL: 99-66 overall, 52-31 home, 47-35 road

Playoff recap: The Royals and Orioles haven’t lost a game yet in the postseason as both teams are seeking their first World Series title since the mid-1980’s. Kansas City rallied from a four-run deficit to stun Oakland in the Wild Card round, 9-8, then used that momentum to sweep the team with the best record in baseball. The Royals won all three games against the Angels, which included a pair of extra-inning victories in Southern California as heavy underdogs.

Baltimore took care of AL Central champion Detroit in three games, capped off by a 2-0 triumph as hefty ‘dogs at Comerica Park in the series clincher of the ALDS. The Orioles limited the Tigers to 10 runs in the series sweep, while erasing a late three-run deficit in a 7-6 home victory in Game 2. Buck Showalter’s team was one of five clubs in baseball to win at least 50 home games in the regular season, as the Orioles compiled the most units in the sport this season (+3845).

Season series review: If the regular season was any indication, this should be an entertaining ALCS. Kansas City went 4-3 against Baltimore in seven matchups, including a 2-1 mark at Camden Yards. The two clubs split a four-game set in Kansas City in mid-May, which included a 2-1 and 1-0 result. Five of the seven contests finished ‘under’ the total, while the Royals went each of the two starts made by Game 1 starter James Shields.


NLCS: San Francisco vs. St. Louis

Records:
SF: 92-75 overall, 46-37 home, 46-38 road
STL: 93-73 overall, 53-30 home, 40-43 road

Playoff recap: Both these teams didn’t have home-field advantage in the NLDS, but found a way to knock off division champions. Granted, the Cardinals claimed the NL Central title, but it was no easy task to eliminate the Dodgers for the second straight postseason. St. Louis bumped Los Angeles in four games, while beating Cy Young favorite Clayton Kershaw twice, including in the Game 4 clincher at Busch Stadium, 3-2 as +150 home underdogs. The Cardinals have reached the NLCS for the fourth straight season and amazingly all three times since Albert Pujols departed in free agency after the 2011 title.

The Giants are looking to keep up their streak of domination in even years, at least in this decade. San Francisco hoisted a World Series championship trophy in 2010 and 2012, as Bruce Bochy’s team survived the Wild Card round with ease by shutting out the Pirates. The Giants stayed on the East Coast and edged the NL East Champion Nationals in a pair of road contests, while finishing off Washington at home in four games. San Francisco cashed as an underdog in all three wins, as this squad has won 11 of its past 11 playoff games since trailing the Cardinals, 3-1 in the 2012 NLCS.

Season series review: The road team dominated this series, posting a 5-2 record. San Francisco grabbed three of four meetings at Busch Stadium in late May, while scoring 23 runs in the three victories. The Cardinals picked up some revenge in the Bay Area one month later, taking two of three matchups. Game 1 starter Adam Wainwright split a pair of starts against the Giants this season, as the lone victory came at AT&T Park, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings in a 2-0 triumph. Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner beat the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, but was knocked around at home as a -155 favorite in a 7-2 defeat.

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ALCS Betting Preview: Royals at Orioles

ALCS Betting Preview: Royals at Orioles (-125, 7)

The Kansas City Royals are entering their first American League Championship Series since winning the World Series in 1985. The Baltimore Orioles, who host the Royals in Game 1 of the ALCS on Friday, are back for the first time since 1997 and are searching for the franchise’s first pennant since 1983. The Orioles and Kansas City present a contrast of styles but got to the ALCS the same way – with strong starting pitching and dominant bullpen work.

Baltimore led the majors in home runs and was last in stolen bases during the regular season while Kansas City was last in home runs but sat on top in stolen bases. The Royals do all the things well that teams need to do to win without hitting home runs, including playing great defense, but started to power up in the postseason with key extra-inning blasts from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Even without Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Matt Wieters in the lineup, the Orioles pounded Detroit pitching in the ALDS behind a strong series from Nelson Cruz and consistent production from Nick Markakis in the leadoff spot.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Orioles opened as -120 favorites and are now up to -125. The total is set at 7.0.

INJURY REPORT: Orioles - 1B Chris Davis (out indefinitely, suspension).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 74 percent chance of rain at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, while temperatures will be in the mid 50's. There will also be a slight five mile per hour wind blowing in from center field.


WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Orioles were probably the most complete team in baseball entering the playoffs, but it's hard to argue against the magic we've seen from the Royals, not just in the opening round, but over the course of the second half of the regular season as well. Kansas City will do all it can to small-ball the O's into submission, but they'll run into more of a mirror-image than it saw against the Angels in the Division Series and that will pose a challenge. Not a lot of line value with the Royals currently sitting as a +110 to +120 underdog for the series, however. Would need to get them at +125 or better in order to support them here, and even still, it might be a stretch. A little more experience for the O's, and it likely pays off." - Sean Murphy.


PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH James Shields (1-0, 4.91 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Chris Tillman (1-0, 3.60)

“Big Game” James was bailed out by his offense after allowing four runs in five innings in the wild-card game against Oakland and surrendered a pair of solo home runs before earning the win over Los Angeles in his lone ALDS start. The free agent to-be’s big-game reputation outpaces the actual results as he is 3-4 with a 4.96 ERA in eight career postseason starts, including 0-2 in the ALCS. Shields picked up a pair of wins over the Orioles earlier this season, yielding a total of five runs and 12 hits in 14 innings.

Tillman battled through five innings against Detroit in Game 1 of the ALDS and held the Tigers to a pair of solo home runs in earning the win. The 26-year-old completed seven innings only once in his last seven starts but issued only one walk against Detroit while striking out six. Tillman had no trouble going deep into the game against the Royals on May 16, when he tossed a five-hit shutout.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.
* Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings.
* Royals are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Orioles are 20-6 in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: Just over 63 percent of wagers are backing the Orioles at -125.