10-12-14

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River City Sharps

The Oakland Raiders are a mess and back home following a trip to London, England, where they were throttled by the Miami Dolphins and decided to fire HC Dennis Allen after just four weeks into the season. While we would think the Raiders may play inspired football for new HC Tony Sporano, the truth is that they are so lacking in talent on the offensive side of the football that this line is still a gift at Chargers -7. The Chargers are 4-1 on the season and playing really solid football, led by QB Philip Rivers and veteran TE Antonio Gates. There are some serious trends in the Chargers favor in this contest. Let’s start with the fact that San Diego is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. While the Raiders are off the Bye week here, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Oakland is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games off a Bye week and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with a winning record. The value here clearly lies with the Chargers and we’re gladly going to swallow the points in this spot. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -7

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SPORTSWAGERS

NFL

Detroit @ MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA -2 -103 over Detroit

(Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)

In terms of overreactions to prime time games, one need not look further than Minnesota’s 42-10 loss in its last game on a Thursday night game in Green Bay. Man, that was ugly and it was over after five minutes. That sets up this beautiful spot for the Vikings. Remember, Teddy Bridgewater did not play, which left Christian Ponder in charge. Ponder would have trouble moving the ball on SMU. The Vikes get Bridgewater back this week and he makes the biggest difference in the world. Bridgewater doesn’t play like a rookie. He’s quick as a jack rabbit and he’s smart too. The entire organization from the offense to the coaches, to the defense and to the fans, all have a different mindset when Bridgewater is in there. They believe they are going to win and we trust they will too. They Vikes pile up first downs with Teddy in there, which gives the defense some normal rest as oppose to being out there for 40 minutes a game when Ponder goes three and out every series. Besides that, the Lions are getting way too much credit in this number.

Detroit opened the year with a convincing win over the then unprepared Giants. The following week they were whacked in Carolina by 17 points. Detroit also defeated the sickening Jets by 7 and lost last week at home to Buffalo in a game in which they scored 14 points off of turnovers and ended up with 14 points. The Lions have played five games but their sixth game will mark the debut of their third kicker this season. Rookie Nate Freese got the hook after missing four of seven field goals. Alex Henery got two games and missed four of five field goals, including three Sunday in a three-point loss. Those two combined to miss eight of nine field goals beyond 40 yards. Detroit usually waits until December to fold, which could make this an ominous sign of things to come. Furthermore, Megatron is leaking fluid. Over the last three years, Calvin Johnson has seemingly been impervious to pain. He almost never practices on Wednesdays and Thursdays are usually part of that routine as well. But, after being a decoy against the Jets and catching one pass against Buffalo – and getting hurt doing it – the Lions are likely going to sit him for a week or two. Rarely do the Lions play well on the road and we doubt that changes here. With an entirely different feel around the team and in the stands when Teddy Bridgewater starts, he provides hope at the QB position and it is justifiable because he really does have the potential to be among the elite. With 10 days to prepare and coming off that horrible loss in prime time, we’ll go against the overreaction and gladly lay the points.


Carolina @ CINCINNATI

CINCINNATI -6½ -101 over Carolina

(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

Carolina is coming off a win over the Bears to run its record to 3-2. They had to rally from 14 down to get that win. That’s nice, it really is but let us remind you that prior to last week’s victory, the Panthers dropped consecutive games to the Steelers and Ravens by scores of 37-19 and 38-10 respectively. Those are two teams that reside in the same division as the Bengals. The Panthers are still a bad offense that suddenly has defensive problems too. Carolina has allowed 10 passing TD’s in five games. The rushing defense has been poor as well with recent teams breaking 100 total rushing yards on them and it’s also worth noting that they have the Packers on deck. Despite its 3-2 record, this is not a good football team and they’ll now head to Cinci to play a team in a very foul mood.

We often say that the best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping ship and that applies to the Bengals here. Additionally, there is almost always an overreaction/under-reaction to teams that played in prime time the previous week because they are so widely exposed. That, too, applies to the Bengals. Last Monday, Cinci remained the only unbeaten team in the NFL and they were expected to go into New England and beat up on that old and diminishing club. The opposite occurred and the result that night was a lot of ripped up tickets. That said, the Patriots hadn’t been that jacked up for a game in a very long time. They were taking a beating in the media the previous week and they had something to prove, which they did. The Bengals just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time but good teams bounce back and they bounce back hard after getting embarrassed. This line opened with the Bengals being a 7-point choice and it has come off that key number. More money is coming in on the Panthers as we write this, thus the over-reaction to last week’s loss in New England. That’s when we like to step in.


Pittsburgh @ CLEVELAND

Pittsburgh +105 over CLEVELAND

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

The consensus is that the Steelers are not as good as before and the Browns may be better. We’re not so sure. These two met in the season opener back in Pittsburgh and the Brownies rallied from a 24-3 halftime deficit to almost steal a win, eventually losing 30-27. Last week the Brownies rallied from a 28-3 deficit against Tennessee and won 29-28. However, that all occurred after Jake Locker was injured. The Browns pulled a rabbit out of their hat in that game and almost pulled a rabbit out of their hat against Pittsburgh. One could argue that Pittsburgh took its foot off the gas in the second half and nearly got caught but in this league, you can’t expect to win when spotting the opposition 21 points every week. The Brownies have been involved in four intense games that have ALL come down to the final minute. That exerts a ton of energy and is a dangerous way to roll. Those intense and close games while having to rally week after week after week will take a toll. Furthermore, the Browns rank 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and 28th in the league in passing yards per game so it should come as no surprise that are often behind by a wide margin.

Enter the Steelers and RB Le'Veon Bell. Bell's average yards from scrimmage through the Steelers first five games is 138 yards. Bell is the first player in Steelers history to gain at least 100 yards from scrimmage in the first five games of a season. Bell piled up 197 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in that aforementioned 30-27 victory over the Browns on Sept. 7. Pittsburgh is not getting any credit because they recently lost to Tampa Bay and didn’t blow out the Jags last week. Let us point out that New Orleans hasn’t lost at home in two years and Tampa probably should have defeated them in New Orleans last week. These Steelers are better than advertised. They have as much offensive balance as any team in the league and they rank 11th and 12th respectively in rushing and passing yards allowed. Pittsburgh easily moved the ball on Baltimore and Carolina, scoring 37 points against the latter and racking up big yards against the Ravens. The Browns offense may be somewhat productive here but overall they have fragile intangibles that keep them from taking that next step and you can’t keep pulling rabbits out of your hat. Steelers outright.

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Bookieshunter

Chargers-7@Raiders 2
Ravens @ Bucs OV 43 3*
Dolphins +3.5 vs. Packers 1*
Panthers @ Bengals UN 44 3*
Steelers + 1.5 @ Browns 2*

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Freddy Wills

Atl - 3. 5.5*

2 team tease 5-0 in nfl teases 4.4*
Cinn/Giants. 6pt tease

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Sport Prediction Plays

NFL

Miami Dolphins +3, -110 (3 units)

Miami/Green Bay OVER 49, -110 (3 units)

Minnesota Vikings -2, -110 (3 units)

Buffalo Bills +3, -110 (5 units)*

NY Giants +2.5, Even money (3 units)

NYG/Philadelphia UNDER 51, -110 (3 units)

Sports Pick Predictions

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DAVE ESSLER


2* miami dolphins

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday NFL


4* Best Bet = SEATTLE
3* = MINNESOTA
3* = CHICAGO
2* = "over" on Packers/Dolphins
2* = Buffalo

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Sports Profit Factory

Green Bay -3
NY/Philly Over 51

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Pointwise Phones

3* N.Y. Giants
3* Buffalo
3* Denver
3* St. Louis
3* Cincy
2* Pittsburgh

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Win or Lose Sports Betting


251 DEN -9.5
256 TENN -4
257 CHI +3

260 MIA +3

264 CINN -6.5

269 SD -7

274 ARIZ -3 (Buy the half)
276 UNDER 51 Phil / NYG

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Scott Spreitzer

NFL Side
triple-dime bet 267 BAL -3.0 (-130) 5Dimes vs 268 TAM
Analysis: I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore couldn't get the offense in gear against the Colts last weekend, thanks in part to 3 turnovers. They finished the 20-13 loss out-gained by more than 100 yards, but that's been a buy sign under John Harbaugh. The Ravens usually turn a bad week around rather quickly, going 14-4 ATS after getting out-gained by at least 100 yards during the Harbaugh-era. They've averaged 25 ppg, while allowing just 15 ppg in those 18 contests. Baltimore will face a less than imposing Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th in both yards passing allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. They're also just 18th against the run and allow a whopping 31.2 ppg, including 39 ppg the last three weeks. Yes, the Bucs offense has shown better under QB Mike Glennon than it did with Josh McCown behind center. But facing the Ravens' defense is a notch or two tougher than the Saints' unit they faced last week. And dig deeper than last week's final score and you'll see the Bucs only gained 314 yards...out-gained by 197 yards! Tampa Bay scored 10 points off of 19 and 40 yard drives and scored another TD off a pick-6. I suspect the Buccaneers will be unable to run the football and if that's the case, Glennon could be in for some trouble. Besides the 14-4 ATS spot mentioned above, Tampa Bay is just 13-31-1 ATS in their last 45 home games, including a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm laying the points with the Ravens, my Smackdown release.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:12PM PST

NFL Side
dime bet 260 MIA 3.0 (-115) Bookmaker.com vs 259 GBP
Analysis: I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Tough spot for the Packers who are off back-to-back divisional wins and three straight games within the NFC North, overall. After losing to Detroit, Green Bay knocked-off Chicago, despite getting out-gained 496-358. In fact, the Packers' final 17 points came on drives of 35, 35, and 11 yards. Then, after beating a mistake-prone Chicago team, the Pack caught Minnesota at the perfect time with Teddy Bridgewater injured and 3rd-string QB Christian Ponder forced to start behind center. Miami will now be the team in the prime spot and will face a Packer squad that hasn't been able to run (25th) or stop the run (32nd). Miami does both pretty well, especially on offense where they rank 4th in the league running the football. Dolphins' RB Knowshon Moreno is expected to be back and I believe the running game will be a difference maker even if he's on the sideline. Add in the scheduling advantage for Miami, off a bye week, while Green Bay is in the tough spot mentioned above and the Dolphins are in prime position to garner a home win. Miami enters on a 10-4 ATS run at home, including a 6-0 ATS record as a home underdog under HC Philbin. I'm grabbing the points with the Dolphins, my Blockbuster on Sunday.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:17PM PST

NFL Side
double-dime bet 253 PIT 1.5 (-110) BetOnline vs 254 CLE
Analysis: I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The Steelers were dominating the Cleveland Browns in week-1, leading 27-3 at halftime. But the Browns gave us a preview of things to come, clawing their way back in the game, before Pittsburgh finally wrapped things up with a 30-27 win. The Steelers out-gained Cleveland 503-389 and averaged 7.5 yards per play. This time, I expect Pittsburgh to grab the lead and not let off the gas. We went against the Steelers a couple weeks ago and cashed when they blew a lead against Tampa Bay. Last week, the Steelers were able to sneak out a cover in a 17-9 win over Jacksonville. But again, it was a lackluster performance, looking a bit hungover from the ugly loss to the Buccaneers. Nothing like a game against a division rival to get your focus back and that's what we have in this one. The Steelers (3-2) can't afford to lose ground in the AFC North with Cincy at 3-1 and Baltimore at 3-2, and I'm betting they won't. The Browns defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially on the ground. There are just four NFL teams that allow at least 5 yards per carry and Cleveland is one. I expect Pittsburgh to send a steady diet of Le'Veon Bell right at the soft stop unit. When Bell plows the road, Big Ben can go to work. Roethlisberger has completed 69% of his passes this season with a 7:2 TD:INT ratio. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL in total yards per game, equally effective on the ground and through the air (8th in both). And unlike Cleveland, the Steelers play some defense. NFL teams (and in this case Pittsburgh) are 59-28 ATS when they hold teams to an average of 295-335 yards per game, provided their opponent owns bad defensive numbers, those allowing at least 370 yards per game. Pittsburgh is on a 9-4 ATS run, overall, and they're on a 5-1 ATS run on the road. No revenge here. I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers, my Knockout Shocker.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:16PM PST

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King Creole NFL Total
triple-dime bet 259 GBP / 260 MIA OVER 49.0 Hilton
Analysis:
3*** BEST BET on: OVER the TOTAL

There should be a LOT of points down here in South Florida on Sunday, as Miami hosts Green Bay with both teams off offensive explosions. Both of these teams come in with an average of 48.0 combined PPG on the year. For Green Bay, it's a 27.0 ppg offense and a 21.0 ppg defense. For Miami, it's a 24.0 ppg offense AND defense. It's what they've done lately that elevates this play to Best Bet status. After a slow start to the season, Green Bay has picked up their offense and put up 42 and 38 points in their last two games. The timing is right for a fast game. Coach Mike McCarthy mentioned throughout training camp and the pre-season that quickening their offensive pace was critical. In fact, he mentioned a high number of 75 offensive snaps per game as their goal. Result? The Packers are 4-1 O/U on the season. On the flip side, Miami made some major changes on offense as well. New OC Bill Lazor was brought in to quicken the Dolphin offense. At times, they have struggled in the first month. But at other times, they've scored points in bunches. And they have shot all the way up to the THIRD quickest offense in the NFL (69.5 plays per game). The good news for Over players is: Despite already going 3-1 O/U in their four games, the Dolphins are just scratching the surface. When they do get their offense humming (and they had plenty of time during their bye week), the Overs will continue.

As mentioned above, both teams off impressive wins in their last game. For Green Bay, it was a huge Thursday win over Minnesota.
11-1 O/U since 2009 / 9-0 O/U away: All NFL favorites off a SU THURSDAY win that went OVER the Total (PACKERS).
For Miami, it was a dominating performance over Oakland ‘across the pond’ (London).
6-0 O/U: All NFL underdogs playing off a SU NEUTRAL site win (DOLPHINS).

Green Bay figures to let their hair down a little after playing 3 straight division games in a row.
LAST year, NFL teams off 3 straight division games (PACKERS) went a PERFECT 4-0 O/U. Since the 2007 season, these teams have gone 18-4 O/U when favored (GBAY)... including a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in the last 5 seasons.
Final score of that Packers win over Minnesota last week was 42 to 10.
9-0-1 O/U since 2007: All non-division road teams off a SU DIVISION win of 31 or more points (PACKERS). This situation has already gone 1-0 O/U this year (ATL vs MIN in Week Four).

On the flip side, the host Dolphins come into this NON-conference game with a Week of Rest (BYE).
6-0 O/U since 2001: All non-division home underdogs of < 6 points with rest (MIAMI) and off a SU win in their last game.
Miami has had an up-and-down ride in their last 3 games (SU win of 24 pts and BB SU losses of 19 and 19 pts).
8-1-1 O/U last 5 years: All NFL teams off a SU win of 14 > pts and BB SU losses of 14 > pts each in their last 3 games (DOLPHINS).

So both of these teams enter Sunday’s game off wins of 24 or more points.
6-1 O/U last 5 years: All NFL games in which BOTH teams (MIAMI / GREEN BAY) are off a SU win of 24 > points.
Let’s not forget to query the ‘AFC vs NFC’ aspect of this game. Last season, All > .500 NFC ‘short’ road favorites of -4 < pts (PACKERS) went a PERFECT 7-0 O/U versus an AFC opponent (DOLPHINS).

Look for a lot of fast-paced NO HUDDLE plays in this shootout. Final score: 31 to 28...
Pick Made: Oct 10 2014 8:59PM PST

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Totals4U

2014 AFC North Division Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Pittsburgh/Cleveland under 47

Early NFL Best Bets
Detroit/Minnesota over 43
Carolina/Cincinnati over 43 1/2
New England/Buffalo under 45
Baltimore/Tampa Bay over 43 1/2

2014 NFC East Division Primetime Total of the Year!!!!!
New York/Philadelphia over 50

Late NFL Best Bets
Chicago/Atlanta under 54
San Diego/Oakland under 43 1/2
Dallas/Seattle over 46 1/2
Washington/Arizona under 45 1/2

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Hall of Fame Sports Picks

Detroit Lions spread
Cincinnati Bengals spread

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Craig Davis

Sunday's Action...

100 Dime Winner for Sunday is a 2 Team, 7 Point Teaser on both the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills as the home dogs teased up. At 10:00 pm eastern time on Saturday night when I release this selection, the Dolphins are +3 point dogs, while the Bills are the +2 1/2 point dogs both in Vegas and offshore. In this teaser we are getting the Dolphins at +10, and the Bills at +9 1/2 points.


Analysis


100 DIME - 2 TEAM, 7 POINT TEASER --- MIAMI DOLPHINS & BUFFALO BILLS--- Your top play of the day is the Dolphins and Bills in a two-team/7-point teaser. When you saw the two games involved in this teaser, you probably thought to yourself that I was releasing Green Bay and New England... probably because those are the "sexy" picks.


With New England it's impossible to tell which Patriots team is going to show up from week to week. Are we going to see the team that scored a mere 16 points against the lowly Raiders and followed that up by getting blown out on national TV at Kansas City? Or are we going to see the group that absolutely demolished the previously-unbeaten Bengals and could seem to do no wrong?


For the Bills, their season could have changed for the better last week with a surprising come-from-behind win at Detroit. That was a HUGE win for so many reasons, but most importantly getting confidence for former backup (now starter) Kyle Orton.


While Buffalo was able to win the game last week, they didn't have a lot of success running the ball vs. the #4 ranked rush defense in the league. Running, however, is what the Bills are built on and want to do... and the Patriots will be able to oblige a lot better. New England is much better, defensively, when asked to stop the pass because of guys like Darrelle Revis.


But that's okay with Buffalo... the are 22-2 over their last 24 games when out-rushing their opponent. Even if Orton doesn't have his best game, I like my chances with the home team that runs the ball better.


As for Miami and Green Bay, well, let's just say I haven't figured out the Packers yet either. They've looked absolutely dominant against the Bears and then the Vikings, but they've had an extended period of rest which sometimes helps, but often time hinders sharpness... especially offensively when the team wasn't tested after the first quarter.


Joe Philbin, the new head coach of the Miami Dolphins is in the unique situation of having coached Aaron Rodgers for many years as his offensive coordinator. Philbin not only coached him for several years, he's also coming in off a bye week, having been given two full weeks to prepare for any of Rodger's weaknesses.


Don't get me wrong, I believe Rodgers should be able to get several opportunities to produce, but the Dolphins have those few advantages including the ability to pressure the QB. and when that happens, we all know Rodgers clearly isn't the same guy.


The bottom line is... Green Bay enters today's game off a perfect Thursday night win and now have had 10 days to hear about how great they are. It reminds me a lot of the Falcons from a few weeks ago. Remember Atlanta completely blew the Bucs off the field on a Thursday night, only to turn around and get beat up by the Vikings the following Sunday.


Take the Bills and Dolphins in this teaser as your top play of the day.