10-12-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

Sunday Selection ...

For Sunday, Top-Rated 1000♦ is the Cincinnati Bengals as the home favorite over the Carolina Panthers. At 10:05 pm eastern time on Saturday night, the Bengals are the -6 1/2 point to -7 point favorites both in Vegas and offshore. Make sure you get the best line possible.


While I respect Carolina's 8-2 spread mark their last 10 as the road dog, they are going to Cincinnati here on Sunday to face the previously undefeated Bengals who were humiliated but good at New England last Sunday night.


Bounce-back effort comes today from the Bengals who have now won 11 in a row regular season home games since the end of the 2012 season, and better still have covered in ALL of those 11 wins!


Yes, A.J. Green is out for this one, but this game comes down to the rock-ribbed Bengals defense making the difference by getting in Cam Newton's face all afternoon long.


The Panthers got the Bears to give away last week's game, something the Bengals will not do on their home field today. With Carolina having issues running the ball, look for the Cincy secondary to feast on the young and unproven Carolina receivers, and look for the Bengals to bounce-back from last week's prime time humbling at New England.



Cincy by 10.



Sunday Note


Wow, that's all I can say...wow!


2500♦ Clemson loses their starting QB in the first quarter, and while they had a legitimate shot to close the ATS against Louisville at the end of the game, they settled for the field goal to go up by 6, and then hung on for dear life.


Just stinking up the joint right now. Nothing more I can say. Terrible, terrible calls this weekend.


New day has arrived, and with it a chance to close out the weekend with a winner.


Top-Rated 1000♦ Bounce-Back Lock on line for Sunday afternoon.


Team off a loss last week, bounces-back this week with the win.


PS - Don't forget my Pay-After-You-Win release.


Remember, the Pay-After play is always on a SEPARATE extension.



Must win, or you will NOT be charged!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Benton

Sunday's Action

50 Dime winner going out for this Sunday is the Over in the Steelers-Browns game. At 10:05 pm eastern time on Saturday night, the total for this game stands at 47 points both in Vegas and offshore.

ANALYSIS

When Pittsburgh and Cleveland played on Week One, the Steelers raced to a 27-3 lead, then hung on for dear life in their 30-27 win in a game that sailed Over the total.


I like the points to add up once again in the rematch, especially when you consider the Brownies have played to Overs in all 4 of their games this season, and are now 9-3-1 Over the price in their last 13 dating back to a season ago.


The Steelers streak of 2 in a row Over was snapped last week against the anemic Jags, but Mike Tomlin's club owns a 7-3 Over mark their last 10 since last year.


Cleveland is allowing 5 yards per carry, and it is just hard for me to see this one turning into a field goal contest.


Let's play it Over in this AFC North battle, Part 2.


SUNDAY NOTE


Big Play Specialist locked and loaded for Sunday.


Time for the slide to stop, and time to get back to the winning.


42 of the past 73 days have made you money!


Sitting on a winner for Sunday Week Six, and it happens to be a total winner.


$10 bettor is still up over 12 grand since early April.


50 Dime Winner # 25 of 44 AFC North Total going out.


A $10 bettor has netted $12,230 the past 171 days, and there is more winning lined up for tonight.


No need to mince words, just hit this winner and move on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dan the Man

Sunday's Play

Sunday winner is a 75 Dime play on the Philadelphia Eagles as the home favorite against the New York Giants. At 7:05 pm Vegas time on Saturday night, the Eagles are -2 1/2 to -3 point favorites in Vegas and offshore. Make sure to shop around and get the best line possible. I want you to buy the half-point down on the Eagles if your number is -3.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Wilton

Your Sunday Winner...

Sunday winner is a 50 Dime release on the Minnesota Vikings over the Detroit Lions. At 5:00 am Vegas time, the Vikings are -2 1/2 point favorites over the Lions. If this line should creep to -3 or even -3 1/2, then buy the half point down on Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

Sunday Selection ...

My 150 dime selection is on Dolphins over the Packers. The current line on this game is +3 in Vegas and offshore. I advise buying the 1/2 point and getting +3 1/2. If your man has a 2 1/2, you buy up to +3. You make sure to get +3 and +3 1/2. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.



NOTE:
This is a huge Sunday.


As far as Saturday was concerned, the world seemed to have a huge interest in the USC/Arizona game.


I gave the game out early Saturday morning at +2 1/2 and even told my clients to buy up to +3. Seemed a great value.


After 2:00 pm EST the line moved to -2 and then, all hell broke loose as the line moved the rest of the day eventually closing at the Wildcats as a -1 1/2 point favorite.


I believe the line move was caused by Oregon's blowout win at UCLA, thus making the Wildcats win at Oregon 9 days ago that much more impressive.


Whatever it was, it made the game a win for some, a push for some and a loss for some.


For record keeping purposes and based on what time I gave the game out and what the line was at that time, I will call it a push, even though in my private life I won.


Now that we got that out of the way, let's get to my 4th straight 150 dime winner.


ANALYSIS
I truly believe the wrong team is favored this afternoon.


Off their back to back wins over the Bears and the Vikings, the entire world is back on the Packers band wagon.


Huge mistake. Big. Huge.


This is still the same Green Bay team that was blown out at Seattle, trailed the Jets 21-3 at Lambeau and if Geno Smith doesn't implode, they don't win that game.


Then they go to Detroit in week 3 and lose 19-7 crossing midfield just 3 times in 9 possessions in an absolute horrible offensive performance.


So again, Aaron Rodgers popped off with the "R-E-L-A-X" comment because he knew he was facing two teams he has owned over the course of his career.


You think he would have said that if they were playing the Broncos and Patriots? No way he says it. No way in hell.


Trust me when I tell you the Dolphins are a huge step up for this Green Bay team today and they will be in trouble from the get go.


Miami opened the season dominant in the 2nd half beating New England but followed up that win with a loss week two at Buffalo. The same Bills that just beat the Lions in Detroit.


Then in Week 3 they get beat at home to the Chiefs, the same Chiefs that destroyed the Patriots on Monday night. No shame in that.


But for some reason people got off this team's bandwagon and they proceeded to destroy Oakland in London setting up this game here.


Miami is the 5th best running team in the NFL at 142.3 yards per game and at home today they face the worst run defense in the NFL...the Packers.


I have said it now for 25 years, if you can't stop the run in the NFL you are not going to be successful on the road. Simple as that.


It's going to be a huge day for Lamar Miller and Knowshon Moreno as they get Tannehill in favorable 3rd and shorts and the Dolphins exploit this very average Packers defense.


Grab this home doggy to shock the world on Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Michaels

SUNDAY

100 Dime, 7 POINT Two-Team Teaser on Denver and Seattle, who are favorites against the Jets and Cowboys, respectively. As I release this play at 2:05 AM here in Vegas, Denver is -9 to -10 at most books with Seattle -8 to -9. Using the SEVEN points in this particular two-teamer, reduce the price on both favorites, making Denver -3 (using the higher price listed above) and Seattle -2 (again using the higher price above).


FYI - generally I go with standard six-point teasers, but in this particular case I opted for a seven-pointer because of the wider range of prices and since Denver is pushing -10 at some books. You do NOT want to watch a field goal win get you a loss at -4 with a six-point teaser instead.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Rosica

10/12/14
Baltimore (NFL)

Special Instructions: Buy down 1/2 point. (just in case)

After a tough loss last week, the Ravens need a win. The sit at 3-2 on the season, which isn't bad considering the fallout of the Ray Rice scenario, which I believe they put behind them brilliantly. They have quietly returned to being that gritty and stingy defense and they have quite a few playmakers on offense, along with a 3 prong running attack led by Justin Forsett who has stepped it up in Rice's absence.

Everyone is high on Tampa after they shocked Pittsburgh and almost did the same to the Saints. However, these are not the New Orleans saints of old, and the same goes for Pittsburgh. The recent semi surge from Tampa is a fake, and Lovie Smith is still.... Lovie Smith.

Ravens win this one, going away.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Redd

Sunday's Play

50 Dime selection on the Carolina Panthers against the Cincinnati Bengals. As I release this play at 5:00am Pacific here in Vegas, the line on Carolina is +6 1/2 to +7 in Vegas and offshore. In this situation I recommend you buy the 1/2 point insurance and move the line to +7 or +7 1/2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Delaney

Sunday Winner

My 40 Dime Winner for tonight is on the EAGLES in their NFC East showdown against the Giants. As of 7:30 a.m. eastern, the line I see is -2.5 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gabriel DuPont

Football winner...

My 40 Dime Winner is the UNDER in the Interconference showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins. As of 5 a.m. pacific, I see the total on this game is 49 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Falcon Sports


Minnesota -2 (-110) 2 units

Dallas +9.5 (-115) 2 units

NY Giants +3 (-120) 2 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vince Akins's Pick Pack
NFL Sunday Picks


Premium Plays
Matchup: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Baltimore (-3.5 +100)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4.5-STAR Baltimore over TAMPA BAY - Tampa Bay has put together spirited efforts each of the past two weeks, but at some points that spirit runs out and the talent gap becomes evident. In a game the Ravens don't want to let get away we see them coming in here and taking care of things comfortably.
Baltimore is on the road for the second straight game after a loss in Indy last week. Teams on the road for the second straight game are 468-355-20 ATS (A and p:A and season>=2003).
They scored just 13 points in the loss, their lowest output of the season. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS (13.42 ppg) since Nov 05, 2000 as a road favorite after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average (team=Ravens and AF and p:points + 10<=Average(p:points@team and season and p:season=season) and date>=20001105).
They rushed for 90 yards in the loss, the second straight game their rushing output decreased. The Ravens are 10-0 ATS on the road when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. (team=Ravens and A and p:RY=2008).
it wasn't a lack of productivity but that they didn't really commit to the run, with just 15 carries in that game. The Ravens are 10-0 ATS on the road after a loss in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. (team=Ravens and A and p:L and tA(p:rushes)-p:rushes >= 10 and season>=2001).
As you might imagine the result was the Colts dominated the ball, and the Ravens had control for just 21:17. The Ravens are 9-0 ATS as a road favorite after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. (team=Ravens and AF and p:TOP<1560 and date>=20011101).
Tampa Bay returns home here after three straight road games. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-9.21 ppg) since Dec 07, 1997 as a home dog after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks (team=Buccaneers and HD and p:A and pp:A and date>=19971207).
They lost a heartbreaker on the road last week, 37-31 in overtime at New Orleans. Homes teams that lost in overtime in road game last week are 46-68-4 ATS (H and p:overtime=1 and p:AL and NB).
They did themselves no favors in that upset bid with 15 penalties in the loss. Teams that committed at least 13 penalties last game are 118-166-8 ATS (p:penalties>=13).
Now they have this lone home game before going into the bye next week. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS (-9.25 ppg) since Nov 02, 2008 the week before their bye (team=Buccaneers and n:week=2 +week and date>=20081102).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Baltimore 27, TAMPA BAY 13
Matchup: Detroit at Minnesota
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Minnesota (PK +105)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR MINNESOTA over Detroit - The Vikings get a free pass for last week's performance in Green Bay. Once the Vikings knew Christian Ponder was starting they knew their fate and the effort showed. With Teddy back in command here, we expect them to foil Detroit playing outdoors.
Minnesota lost in Green Bay on Thursday night, 42-10. Teams that lost by at least 31 points last game are 154-114-2 ATS (p:margin<=-31).
It was an unusual blowout in that Minnesota actually had the ball for over 32 minutes in the loss.
The Vikings are 12-0-1 ATS (8.69 ppg) since Sep 30, 2001 as a dog the week after a loss in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average (team=Vikings and D and p:L and tA(p:TOP)+ 180<=p:TOP and date>=20010930).
They stuck with the run with 25 rushes with their lone TD coming on a Ponder run. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) after a road game which was not the season opener in which they rushed for a TD (team=Vikings and p:A and p:RTD>0 and p:game number>1 and season>=2012).
Ponder was in trouble all game and was sacked six times in the loss. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS after a game in which they allowed at least four sacks (team=Vikings and p:A and p:RTD>0 and p:game number>1 and season>=2012).
Detroit goes to Minnesota after absolutely letting one get away in a 17-14 loss to Buffalo as a home favorite. The Lions are 0-13 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since Nov 06, 2005 with 5-10 days rest playing on artificial turf after a loss as a favorite (team=Lions and surface=artificial and p:FL and 10>=rest>=5 and date>=20051106).
Buffalo had 11 penalties in the game, but even that wasn't enough to save Detroit. Teams that lost despite benefitting from at least 11 penalties last game are 171-228-16 ATS (po:penalties>=11 and p:L).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 27, Detroit 20
Matchup: Denver at N.Y. Jets
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)


Play: N.Y. Jets (+9.5 -110)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR NY JETS over Denver - This pick is 100% against the public but this line is overreacting to just one week. If their game happened last week, the Jets would not have been more than six point home dogs. They are significantly more here and that makes a big difference in these game where hope seems to be lost on the surface.
When a home team is a dog of more than a TD they carry a strong edge. Home dogs of more than a TD are 174-136-1 ATS (H and line>7).
The reason for the big line is that New York lost by 31 points last week. Teams that lost by at least 31 points last game are 154-114-2 ATS (p:margin<=-31).
They were shutout in the road loss at the Chargers, a game where they were just TD road dogs despite San Diego being one of the league's best teams. The Jets are 9-0 ATS since November 2007 as a dog the week after scoring fewer than 10 points (team=Jets and D and p:points<10 and NB and date>=20071101).
They lost the turnover margin yet again in that game, but that's a correctable problem. The Jets are 8-0 ATS (7.62 ppg) since Oct 20, 1996 at home when they had a negative takeaway margin in each of their last three games (team=Jets and H and 0
=19961020).
Falling behind so early last game, they had to get away from their bread and butter running game, and had just 21 carries. The Jets are 10-0 ATS (9.80 ppg) since Sep 15, 1991 as a home dog the week after a loss in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average (team=Jets and HD and p:L and p:rushes + 10<=Average(p:rushes@team and season and p:season=season) and date>=19910915).
Still that was better than their feable passing effort which had just 60 yards on 31 attempts plus sacks. Teams that had fewer than 65 passing yards last game are 107-85-5 ATS (p:PY<65). Also, the Jets are 6-0 ATS (14.17 ppg) since Dec 14, 1997 at home the week after a game in which they had fewer than 100 yards passing (team=Jets and H and p:PY<100 and date>=19971214).
Denver meanwhile has 772 passing yards over their last two games. Teams that have thrown for at least 740 combined yards in their past two games are 32-43-3 ATS (p:PY + pp:PY>=740).
They won last week, 41-20, at home against Arizona. Road favorites of more than a point coming off a game where they scored 30+ points and did not win by more than 27 are 180-246-11 ATS (A and line<-1 and p:points>=30 and NB and p:margin<=27).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Denver 26, NEW YORK 21
Matchup: Carolina at Cincinnati
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Carolina (+7 -120)
Line Source: The Greek
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR Carolina +7 over CINCINNATI - We think the loss that Cincinnati suffered last week is going to have more than a one week effect. Their confidence should rightfully be shaken and now they are further hurt with the big loss of AJ Green. As Cam Newton gets healthy, this is the kind of game set up for the Panthers to compete in.
Further setting up a hangover possibility for Cincinnati is that it was their first loss this late into the season, one of the two last teams to lose a game on the year. Teams are 38-56-3 ATS when it is at least week 6 and they lost their first game of the season last game (losses=1 and p:L and week>=6).
Both their offense and defense were bad in the 43-17 loss to the Patriots. Favorites that allowed at least 37 points last game and scored no more than 19 are 61-88-3 ATS (po:points>=37 and F and p:points<=19).
Cincinnati was actually a 2.5-point favorite in that game, failing to cover by 28.5 points. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since Nov 22, 1998 as a favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week after a non-divisional opponent (team=Bengals and F and p:ats margin<=-10 and p:NDIV and date>=19981122).
They gave up all those points after allowing just seven in a blowout over Tennessee the week prior. Teams that allowed at least 35 points last game and less than 14 two games ago (po:points>=35 and ppo:points<14).
New England even committed 12 penalties Sunday, but that wasn't enough to even mildly slowdown the beatdown. Teams that lost despite benefitting from at least 11 penalties last game are 171-228-16 ATS (po:penalties>=11 and p:L).
Carolina won last week 31-24 over Chicago. they wisely got the ball to Greg Olsen who had two TDs in the win. The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS (11.29 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 after a win in which Greg Olsen had a least 1 receiving touchdown (0=20111002).
Cam Newton completed just 19 of 35 passes in the game, but was hitting plays down the field. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (14.00 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 the week after a game in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average (team=Panthers and NB and 100. * tp:completions / tp:passes + 10<=Average((100.*tp:completions)@team and season and tp:season=season) / Average(tp:passes@team and season and tp:season=season) and date>=20091206).
They were able to overcome a monster receiving day from Matt Forte out of the backfield, as he had 12 catches for 105 yards in the loss. Teams that have an opponent's player catch 12+ balls last game are 71-59-2 ATS (max:po:receptions>=12).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 23, Carolina 20
Matchup: Green Bay at Miami
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Miami (+3 -105)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR MIAMI over Green Bay - Not many people are giving the Dolphins much of a chance here even at home, but they are a team which has found something going into their bye. With an extra week's rest for their pass rush and a 1-2 punch returning the in backfield, we expect them to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field enough to pull off this upset win.
Before their bye they played Oakland as the road team in London. The Dolphins are 9-0 ATS (11.17 ppg) since Nov 06, 2011 as a dog after playing away from home (team=Dolphins and D and p:site!=home and date>=20111106).
They dominated that game, winning 38-14. Home teams in non-divisional regular season games, with more than normal rest after scoring at least 28 points last game are 83-46-3 ATS (rest>6 and p:points>=28 and H and NDIV and playoffs=0).
Green Bay also dominated last week, defeated Minnesota 42-10 in a game where they were up 28 by halftime. The Packers are 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week (team=Packers and -3<=line<=3 and p:margin>7 and p:M2>0 and NB and season>=2006).
As a nine-point favorite they still covered that game by 23 points. The Packers are 0-8 ATS (-8.75 ppg) since Sep 21, 2008 within 3 of pick when they covered by 10+ points last week (team=Packers and (-3<=line<=3) and 10<=p:ats margin and NB and date>=20080921).
Prior to that game, they had allowed 24 points per game. The Packers are 0-8 ATS (-6.00 ppg) since Oct 23, 2011 after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average at home (team=Packers and po:points<=Average(po:points@team and season and po:season=season) -10 and p:H and date>=20111023).
Turnovers went Green Bay's way in that win, forcing three and committing just one. The Packers are 0-11 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2. (team=Packers and -3<=line<=3 and p:W and p:TOM<=-2 and NB and date>=20021201).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MIAMI 24, Green Bay 20
Matchup: New England at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (45.5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR New England and Buffalo Under - Even though the final scoreboard didn't give much indication, we saw how the Patriots will want to play last week, and it starts with the running game. Buffalo is reliant on short passes and without a ton of big play opportunities from either side we look for this to stay under the total.
This game is expected to be close with New England on the road before they go home each of the next two weeks. The Patriots are 0-10 OU (-9.95 ppg) since Nov 06, 1994 within 3 of pick on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks (team=Patriots and A and -3<=line<=3 and n:H and nn:H and week + 2=nn:week and date>=19941106).
They scored 43 points last week and they even left some on the table with five field goals. Teams that attempted at least five field goals last game are 78-118-2 OU (p:field goals attempted>=5).
What they did was control things with the running game, with 46 carries in the win. Teams in game with a total of over 44, who ran the ball more than 35 times last game are 207-263-6 OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5).
Buffalo is also coming off an upset win at Detroit. = The Bills are 0-6 OU (-11.25 ppg) since Dec 03, 2009 within 3 of pick at home after a win (team=Bills and H and -3<=line<=3 and p:W and date>=20091203).
Their ATS margin has increased in each of the last two games after being blown out by the Chargers. The Bills are 0-7 OU (-8.64 ppg) since Dec 19, 1998 within 3 of pick at home when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games (team=Bills and H and -3<=line<=3 and ppp:ats margin=19981219).
Their lone big play of that 17-14 win over Detroit was a 42-yard strike to Marquise Goodwin. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-13.12 ppg) since Nov 30, 2008 at home after a win in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards (team=Bills and H and 40<=max:p:longest reception and p:W and NB and date>=20081130).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
Matchup: Washington at Arizona
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (45.0 -110)
Line Source: CG Technology
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4.5-STAR Washington and Arizona Over - These are a pair of offenses that are not afraid to take and hit big shots down the field. They also each have QBs that will make mistakes to give up quick points. Arizona's QB uncertainty has kept this total down, but with the Cardinals' injury riddled defense, we expect a shootout.
Washington is playing a lone road game here sandwiched between home games. The Redskins are 6-0 OU (10.33 ppg) since Sep 30, 2012 on the road between home games (team=Redskins and A and p:H and n:H and p:week + 2=n:week and date>=20120930).
Both of these teams are coming off games where they struggled to run the ball. Washington had just 32 rushing yards on the ground against Seattle on Monday night while Arizona had just 37 in Denver last week, activating a monster system on both teams. Since 2002, teams that ran for less than 50 yards last game and are facing a team that ran for less than 75 yards last game are 69-31-1 OU (p:RY<50 and op:RY<75 and season>=2002).
Arizona didn't even have a single medium length run as none of their 20 carries went for more than six yards. Teams that did not have a rush of more than seven yards last game are 82-60-2 ATS (max:p:longest rush<=7).
One positive from their offense in the 41-20 loss to Denver was that they didn't turn over the ball. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (12.78 ppg) since Oct 30, 1994 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers (team=Cardinals and HF and p:turnovers=0 and date>=19941030).
They did allowed 476 passing yards to Peyton Manning in the blowout loss. The Cardinals are 10-0 OU (9.65 ppg) since Dec 05, 1993 as a home favorite when they allowed at least 100 more yards passing last week than their season-to-date average (team=Cardinals and HF and Average(po:passing yards@team and season and po:season=season) + 100<=po:passing yards and po:week + 1=week and date>=19931205). More recently, the Cardinals are 6-0 OU (14.75 ppg) since Nov 25, 2007 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing (team=Cardinals and HF and 300<=po:passing yards and NB and date>=20071125).
In this game they are back home where they are already 2-0 on the season. The Cardinals are 6-0 OU (12.50 ppg) since Dec 17, 2006 within 3 of pick at home when they won their last two home games (team=Cardinals and H and -3<=line<=3 and Sum(0=20061217).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Washington 28, ARIZONA 27
Member Plays
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (47 -110)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4.5-STAR Cleveland and Pittsburgh Under - This Steelers offense really comes and goes. Even last week with a defensive touchdown, they scored just 17 points. Cleveland meanwhile is not a team that wants to play high-scoring games, though playing in games where there have been big leads, that hasn't happened yet this year. That's driving the total up where it shouldn't in this game.
After this game, Pittsburgh has a game in the primetime of Monday night against Houston. The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-9.05 ppg) since Oct 17, 1999 on the road the week before playing on Monday Night (team=Steelers and A and n:day=Monday and date>=19991017).
They are dogs here after winning as away favorite in Jacksonville last week. The Steelers are 0-9 OU (-12.56 ppg) since Sep 18, 1995 as a dog after a win as an away favorite (team=Steelers and D and p:AFW and date>=19950918).
They were expected to score over 26 points in the game but had just 17 in victory.The Steelers are 0-8 OU (-13.75 ppg) since Dec 09, 2007 as a dog the week after a win in which their dps was negative (team=Steelers and D and p:W and p:dps<0 and date>=20071209).
Cleveland meanwhile won a high scoring game, 29-28 in one of the best comebacks in league history Sunday. Teams that won despite allowing at least 28 points last game are 190-239-10 OU (po:points>=28 and p:W).
They allowed 5.8 more points than expected in the victory. The Browns are 0-9 OU (-13.94 ppg) since Sep 29, 2002 the week after a win on the road in which their dpa was positive (team=Browns and p:AW and 0=20020929).
Even in a game where they were down 25, they still managed to run the ball 36 times. Teams in games where the total is over 44 after running the ball more than 35 times last game are 207-263-6 OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5).
Pittsburgh should know after week one that they can't sleep on this Cleveland offense averaging 387 yards per game. The Steelers are 0-7 OU (-10.86 ppg) since Oct 23, 2005 as a road dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date (team=Steelers and AD and oA(TY)>=375 and date>=20051023).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
Matchup: Chicago at Atlanta
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Chicago (+3 +100)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR Chicago over ATLANTA - The Falcons happen to be 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road, leading everyone to believe they are going to be just fine at home here. The fact is, injuries have just knocked them too far down. In a game that figures to be high scoring, Chicago has the more successful running attack and we think that will make a difference in a game where the defenses will struggle.
Chicago is playing on the road for the second straight week in this contest. Teams on the road for the second straight game are 468-355-20 ATS (A and p:A and season>=2003).
And for the second straight week, they are the small road underdog in the game. The Bears are 8-0 ATS (6.69 ppg) since Oct 19, 2003 as a road dog after playing as a road dog (team=Bears and D and p:margin<=-7 and pp:margin<=-7 and pp:week + 2=week and date>=19981213).
They do come into this ganme struggling, having lost by 7 and 21 the past two games. The Bears are 9-0-1 ATS (11.50 ppg) since Dec 13, 1998 as a dog when they lost by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks (team=Bears and D and p:margin<=-7 and pp:margin<=-7 and pp:week + 2=week and date>=19981213).
Atlanta lost on the road last week in New York, 30-20. They actually led, 20-17 entering the fourth quarter of that loss. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-7.25 ppg) since Nov 23, 2003 after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (team=Falcons and p:L and p:M3>0 and date>=20031123).
Now while Chicago is better at running the ball, both of these teams like to air it out. Each team has thrown the ball on 63% of their plays, but that is even more taxing on the Atlanta defense. The Falcons are 0-9 ATS (-5.67 ppg) since Oct 06, 2002 within 3 of pick when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date (team=Falcons and -3<=line<=3 and 60=20021006).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Chicago by 7
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: New England at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New England (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4.5-STAR New England over BUFFALO - Some luck in close games and all of a sudden, Buffalo is getting a decent amount of respect. The fact is they got badly outplayed even last week, but benefitted from a lot of field goal luck. With the Patriots in a groove, we don't seem the letting this one get away.
New England covered by 28.5 points last week in an upset home win over Cincinnati. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (16.86 ppg) since Sep 15, 2002 within 3 of pick on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week (team=Patriots and A and -3<=line<=3 and 10<=p:ats margin and NB and date>=20020915).
That was in a Sunday night game and big primetime win tend to carry teams going forward. Teams that won by at least 22 points in a primetime game are 99-77-7 ATS next game ((p:snf=1 or p:day!=Sunday) and p:margin>=22).
They dominated on the ground with 220 rushing yards in the win. The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (14.73 ppg) since Jan 02, 1994 within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing (team=Patriots and -3<=line<=3 and 150<=p:RY and NB and date>=19940102).
Benefitting from three turnovers while not committing any did not hurt the cause. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (12.12 ppg) since Dec 02, 2001 when they won last week as a dog while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 (team=Patriots and p:W and p:turnover margin<=-2 and p:D and date>=20011202).
That is going to be a big factor here shares the league lead with several teams including New England with a +6 turnover differential this year. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS (13.08 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 when facing a team that has an average takeaway margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date (team=Patriots and Average(o:turnover margin@o:team and season)<=-1 and date>=20111002).
However, Buffalo's turnovers have been big ones, allowing defensive touchdowns in each of the last two games. Teams that won last game and have allowed defensive touchdowns in each of the last two games are 23-47-1 ATS.
Both Fred Jackson and Sammy Watkins had seven catches in the game as the win was led by the short passing game. The Bills are 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since Nov 06, 2011 after a win in which a receiver had at least 6 receptions (team=Bills and 6<=max:p:receptions and p:W and date>=20111106).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New England by 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Broncos -9.5
50* Ravens / Bucs Over 43

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
The crazy run continues with a 5 Star winner last night as the Royals scored 2 ninth inning runs to beat the Orioles and take a 2-0 lead in the ALCS. Kyle added another winner with the UNDER as well as the Giants won Game 1 3-0.
Important: Kyle and I have picks on the opposite side today, which I have to send out for record keeping (as we track our records separately). I recommend making this a no play.
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - GIANTS TO WIN (+128)
Listed Pitchers: Peavy vs Lynn
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.56 units)
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - CARDINALS TO WIN (-125)
Listed Pitchers: Peavy vs. Lynn
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.60 units)
-- No write up on a Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle Football


SUNDAY

Play Miami +3 over Green Bay (NFL)
1:00 PM EST

Miami has covered the spread in 13 of the last 19 games when the line posted is between +3 to -3 and they have covered the spread in 6 consecutive games when playing as a home underdog. Green Bay has lost two consecutive games against the spread coming off two wins by ten points or more and they have lost 9 of the last 13 games against the spread when the line posted is between +3 to -3.


Play Buffalo +3 over New England (NFL)
1:00 PM EST

New England has lost 13 of the last 17 games against the spread after gaining 400 or more total yards in their last game and they have lost 13 of the last 19 games against the spread after scoring 30 or more total points in their last game. New England has lost 11 of the last 18 road games against the spread and they are allowing an average of 27 points a game on defense in road games this season.


Play Baltimore -3 over Tampa Bay (NFL)
Play Philadelphia -3 over New York Giants (NFL)