10-12-14

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Vegas Runner/NFAC
#254) CLEVELAND -1 (nfac $500)
#258) ATLANTA -3 (nfac $500)
#260) MIAMI +3 (-120) (nfac $500)
#262) MINNESOTA -2.5 (nfac $500)
#264) UNDER 44 CAR/CIN (nfac $500)
#270) OAKLAND +7.5 (nfac $500)

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Denton Bancroft:
Here are all 4 of my NFL plays for the day:

Green Bay Packers -1.5 (-108) (2*): 1:00 pm EDT

Atlanta Falcons -3 (-125) (2*): 4:25 pm EDT

Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-110) (1*): 4:25 pm EDT

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-102) (3*): 8:30 pm EDT

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Lt locks

Vikings
Bills

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Jack Jones
20* Mia
20* Car
15* NE
15* Oak
15* NYG

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SB Professor Original NFL Picks

System Plays:
Tennessee -4
Chicago +3

Rest of games:
San Diego -7

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ASA
7 * ravens

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RTG Sports

2* Jaguars @ Titans Over 42

2* Dallas Cowboys +9

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Robert Ferringo 7*-over-43-bal-tb... 4*-over-45-det-minn

Write-Ups and the Rest


SUNDAY PRO FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

1-Unit Play. Take #251 Denver (-9) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
In theory this is a good spot for the Jets. But the fact of the matter is the defense is ill-equipped to slow down Peyton Manning. The Jets secondary is an EZ-Pass. They can't possibly matchup with with the Broncos wideouts. Everyone sees the writing on the wall with Rex Ryan and his tenure. It's over. The Jets don't have a quarterback. They don't have quality skill players. They don't have discipline. If the Broncos get up early they could turn the lights out on this one. The Jets lost 31-0 last week and I thought the spread on this game would be closer to 12 so I think there's some value here. Even if the Jets put up a fight for awhile I can still see the Broncos getting a 10-point victory.

2-Unit Play. Take #253 Pittsburgh (+2) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
The wrong team is favored here. The Steelers have beaten the Browns 18 of 19 times. I know Cleveland is 2-2 and they have looked improved. But they beat a Saints team that has looked awful and they had to use a crazy comeback against a bad Titans team after getting down 28-3. Cleveland's defense is awful right now and they could be without two of their best players, Phil Taylor and Joe Haden. The Steelers are in the Top 10 in total offense and total defense. This isn't one of hte better Pittsburgh teams we've seen over the last few years. But it is good enough. I'll take the Steelers defense over the Browns' and I'll take Big Ben, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown over their Cleveland counterparts.

2-Unit Play. Take #258 Atlanta (-3) over Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
The Bears just can't stop anyone right now. Their defensive coordinator, Mel Tucker, is a total incompetent. And Chicago's soft zone/Cover-2 style, where the team doesn't get any pressure and simply sits back and waits for the opposing quarterback to pick it apart will play right into Atlanta's strength. The Falcons are undermanned in a lot of different areas as well. But Mike Smith is 40-12 at home. Atlanta played hard and played above themselves for three quarters on the road against a good Giants team. They will give an even better effort in front of their own fans. I trust Matt Ryan to make the right decision and to shred the Bears defense. I trust Jay Cutler to be a total loser and to turn the ball over multiple times. This one goes to the home team.

2-Unit Play. Take #265 New England (-3) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
This one fits into the same mold as the Steelers game. The Patriots have beaten the Bills 22 of 23 times. They are 21-9 ATS in the last 30 meetings. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Orchard Park. They just dominate the Bills. And like the Browns, the Bills are coming off a game they had absolutely no business winning. Buffalo has not played well the last three weeks, getting rolled by San Diego, beaten back by Houston, and then outplayed in a fluke win at Detroit. New England's losses have been to respectable opponents. And if last week was any indication then something could be jarred loose with New England. I'll take Brady and Belichick in a spot like this - especially in a divisional game - any day of the week.

1-Unit Play. Take #267 Baltimore (-3) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

2-Unit Play. Take #272 Seattle (-8) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
I cashed against Dallas last week and I think we can do the same this week. I will admit that this team is on a rush. They are riding a wave of emotion right now and feeling pretty good. But I think they could get smoked up in Seattle this week. The Seahawks lay waste to good teams that come to the Emerald City. And Dallas is not one of those. The Cowboys are in a letdown spot after their Lone Star showdown with Houston. That one went to OT and I think Dallas was fortunate to win it. Again. That's after being lucky to win against St. Louis a few weeks ago as well. Again, their 4-1 record is misleading. There's nothing misleading about what the Seahawks have done over the past three years. They are 38-15 ATS in their last 53 games and they are 40-18 ATS at home. If it ain't broke.

2-Unit Play. Take #273 Washington (+3.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
Arizona doesn't know who its quarterback is. And if they have to start Logan Thomas then you can put this one in the bank, because he is pathetic. Washington showed some signs against Seattle on Monday night and they are in desperation mode. In fact, if you kick out that terrible game against the Giants - which was one of those weird Thursday night situations - the Redskins have two decent performances at Philadelphia and against Seattle. Those aren't bad losses and I think they could be a touch undervalued. If Drew Stanton starts then this wager could be in trouble. If Carson Palmer starts then I think he'll have two turnovers and we'll have a good shot at an upset. If Thomas starts then I think the Redskins win this one in a big way.

2-Unit Play. Take #275 N.Y. Giants (+2.5) over Philadelphia (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
The underdog is the play in this series - plain and simple. The underdog is 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings. That's nearly a decade of underdog domination. The Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Philly and the road team is 5-1-1 ATS when these two face. The Eagles have been scraping their way by weak teams. They really aren't playing all that well and they are worn down on defense and along the offensive line. I think the Giants have the secondary strength to hang with the Eagles passing attack. And I think the G-Men will be able to do enough to play keep-away and shorten this game. The Giants are hot. The Eagles are not. And we'll look for the underdog trend to continue in this one.

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #251 Denver (-2) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m.) AND Take #272 Seattle (-1) over Dallas (4 p.m.)

This Week's Totals
7-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 43.0 Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

By my metrics the Ravens should've gone 'over' in all five of their games to this point in the season. Instead, they are 2-3 against the total and coming off another 'under' last week against the Colts. I thought this number should've been 45.5 and I knew this was a good spot when I saw it. Baltimore's 22.4 defensive yards per point is way, way above normal. And that makes the Ravens a prime regression candidate. Especially considering they have one of the five worst pass defenses in the league right now. They are simply giving up too many yards compared to the amount of points that they have surrendered. And that DYPP is starting to slowly but surely come down. It is 21.8 over the last three games. 21.1 in the last game. I think they are due for one within the normal range of NFL scoring. Of course, the flip side of the ball is also true. Their offensive yards per point was 22.1 last week and that means we should see more scoring this Sunday. Especially against one of the worst defenses in football. Tampa Bay is learning Lovie Smith's Cover-2. The Cover-2 has quickly become a relic. It simply doesn't work against the precision passing games of the new NFL. And it especially doesn't work when you don't have the guys to actually play the system or guys that know what they're doing. That's Tampa's issue. They gave up 37 points to Drew Brees last week. They allowed 24 the week before in Pittsburgh, and that should've been much more. Prior to that they got lit for 56 against the Falcons. That's an average of 35.7 points per game over the last three weeks. Sure, that is going to come down. And Tampa's DYPP is absurd on the other end of the spectrum (13.2). But that's a schematic issue more than a statistical outlier.

Further, the Ravens don't play on the road in NFC stadiums very often. But when they do those games are generally high scoring. The Ravens are 9-2 against the total on the road against NFC opponents going back to 2007. They are also 13-5 against the total in their last 18 games against NFC opponents overall and 17-8 against the total against the NFC dating back to 2007. When the Ravens play out of conference there's points. Period. Just look at the Panthers game (38-10) for a recent example. The same thing goes for the Bucs. They are 9-4 against the total in their last 13 games when hosting an AFC opponent. They played 'over' in their first interconference game this year, at Pittsburgh, and I think it will be more of the same here.

The Bucs have been figuring things out on offense in their own right. They switch to Mike Glennon has paid off. And they have some nice individual talents on that side of the ball. They have scored 58 points the last two weeks and they are trending upward. I think they can get to 17 or 20 points this weekend. And I think that the Ravens can get to 24 or 27. Those are statistically probable numbers and that's what I'm banking on. I think that we'll see somewhere between 46-50 points in this game and I think it will get 'over' thanks to a high-scoring fourth quarter.

4-Unt Play. Take 'Over' 45.0 Detroit at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

3-Unt Play. Take 'Over' 43.5 Carolina at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 45.0 New England at Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

3-Unt Play. Take 'Over' 53.5 Chicago at Atlanta (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 49.0 Green Bay at Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 43.0 San Diego at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 44.0 Jacksonville at Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 50.5 N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Daniels

1* Jets +10
1* Minn -1.5
1* Miami +3.5

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ATS Insiders
4 unit under 43.5 Det/Min
3 unit Jets +10
3 unit under 49 G. Bay/MIA
1-2 yesterday on insider picks
1-0 yesterday on lock club pick

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Hot Chicks PICKS

In baseball......

Take SAN FRANCISCO +125 to stand tall again today!


In NBA......

Take DETROIT +4.5 to be hitting on all pistons today!



In NFL....

Take BALTIMORE -3.5 to fly high above the Bay in Tampa!

Take DETROIT +3 to bite the Vikings!

Take ARIZONA -6 to make the natives feel restless!

Take CHICAGO +3 to chase the dirty birds away!

Take PHILADELPHIA -2.5 to make the big men feel small as my biggest game this month!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR STEVENS WINNING SPORTS PLAYS 10-12-2014 MLB
MLB (5-star or 5-unit)(957) San Francisco +125


*Listed Pitchers

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Esparza (VSI)

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #267 Baltimore -3 over Tampa Bay (1:00p.m., Sunday, Oct 12 CBS)
Baltimore won 3-straight before losing on the road in the Colts last Sunday. Tampa almost won on the road against the Saints but lost in overtime 37-31. Should be a great game and I see a close game early but the Bucs have struggled at home losing 2-straight home games and I see another tough home lose in Tampa. Joe Flacco had a pretty tough game against the Colts and threw for 0 touchdowns so look for Flacco to have a big game Sunday on the road and I see him throwing for at least 2 touchdowns in Florida. Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS following a SU loss.

3 Unit Play. #272 Seattle -8 over Dallas (4:25p.m., Sunday, Oct 12 CBS)

7 Unit Play. #275 Over 50 NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:35p.m., Sunday, Oct 12 NBC)
(Total Game of the Year) So the last 3 Sunday Night games have gone OVER the total and if you like defense this game will probably not be that game. Either one or both teams will hit the 30 mark in this division game and I see both QB's have big throwing games. The NY Giants have won three straight games and all three games the G-Men have scored 30 points or more. The Philadelphia Eagles offense can score quickly and often but their defense has been their Achilles Heel in their last 4 games. Eagles defense has allowed 26.4ppg so far this year and if the Eagles can put pressure on Eli early this game will be a scorefest. I thought for sure this game would have a total of 52 or higher and I'm shocked that this total hasn't got beat up to at least 51 but I'm sure after the afternoon games are over the public will be betting this game over. The NY Giants are 5-1 O/U in Week #6 games and the Eagles are 5-1 O/U in their last 6 home games.

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Carolina sports:

5- tb, chi over,
4- clev, carolina, buff,
3- minn, giants, jax under, wash under

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Mike Missanelli

Falcons
Vikings
Titans