10-12-14

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Tiger

• NFL TEASER 6 PTS: [260] MIA DOLPHINS +8.5 / [266] BUF BILLS +8.5
• 4% NFL [262] MIN VIKINGS -128
• NFL [278] ST. LOUIS +3.5-120

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Mike O'Connor

I've added three more Best Bets below so in total for Week 6 we have the following:

(266) Buffalo +3 (-135)
(260) Miami +3 (-120)
(264) Cincinnati -6.5
(277) San Francisco -3 (-130)

That's it for this week. Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor

**BUFFALO (+3 -135) 24 New England 19
Sun Oct-12-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 266 Over/Under 44.5
The Patriots rallied for a big 43-17 win on Sunday night against the Bengals in a spot where they were geared up to play well. After being embarrassed the previous Monday night against the Chiefs, New England had turned up the intensity in practice and it carried over into the game. The Patriots dominated time of possession behind a balanced attack that generated 516 yards at 6.5 yppl while holding Cincinnati to 328 yards at 6.8 yppl. While those numbers certainly helped to improve their statistical rating, they are still well below average offensively on the season. They’ll face a difficult matchup against a Bills team that’s tied for the league lead in sacks with 17 and has one of the best run defenses in the league, allowing 72 yards at 3.0 ypr to teams that average 108 yards at 4.0 ypr. It appears that the Bills may also get their Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kyle Williams back from injury after missing last week. If the Patriots can’t run the ball in this game, the Bills pass rush will have an opportunity to take advantage of a New England offensive line that has struggled. Brady has completed just 39 percent of his passes for a 2.0 Total QBR when under pressure this season.

On offense, Buffalo made the switch to Kyle Orton last week and he played well in his first start, passing for 294 yards at 6.5 yps, making it clear that he is a significant upgrade over recently benched EJ Manuel. With Orton in the lineup the offense had some punch and now has the ability to stretch the field with the weapons that they have at the wide-out spots. They don’t have to be as dependent on the run game and that should make it more effective. New England has had trouble stopping the run, allowing 121 yards at 4.6 ypr on average and will face a Bills ground attack featuring Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller that should be able to grind out yards.

Buffalo qualifies in a number of good situations that are 664-495-40, 216-103-14, 79-32-3 and 26-4 while the Patriots qualify in a negative 36-78-4 situation that plays against them. My model, adjusted for Kyle Orton at quarterback, favors the Bills by about 2 points. Buffalo is in a good spot to perform well at home where they are 7-3 ATS since the beginning of 2013 while New England does not perform as well away from home where they are just 3-9 ATS. I was hoping that this line would climb back up to +3 -110 which it still might on Sunday as more public money flows in on the Patriots so it may make some sense to wait but I’ll release it where it currently is at Buffalo +3 up to -135 for 2-stars. It’s fine to take it down to +2 but if possible buy onto the 3.
**MIAMI (+3 -120) 26 Green Bay 21
Sun Oct-12-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 260 Over/Under 49.5
Green Bay has looked impressive in winning their last two games against division rivals Chicago and Minnesota by a combined 80-27 but were in good spots to play well in both games. That’s not the case in this game, however, as they’ll travel down to Miami for a non-conference match-up with the Dolphins and a meeting with former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin who is now head coach of the Dolphins. Philbin is likely familiar with some of the Green Bay personnel, although about half the team is different than when he left three years ago. One important person that Philbin is certainly familiar with is Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who Philbin worked closely with during his time with the Packers. Knowing his weaknesses better than most can certainly be of benefit in this game as the Dolphins prepare to defend the Packer offense.

Miami has played well defensively so far this year as they have allowed 4.7 yppl against teams that typically gain 5.1 yppl with better than average numbers against both the run and the pass. They’ll have to perform well if they expect to slow down a good Green Bay offensive attack that has come alive the past two weeks after a slow start to the season. After playing their best football of the season in their 38-14 win against the Raiders two weeks ago in London, the Dolphins have confidence heading into this game and should play well as a result. The Dolphins qualify in a 150-89-12 situation while the Packers qualify in several negative situations that are 76-126-2, 37-87-5, and 38-75-4 that play against them. In addition, the Packers sport the NFL’s worst rush defense, allowing 148 yards at 4.8 ypr and will face a Miami offensive attack that looks like it will be getting Pro Bowl offensive lineman Mike Pouncey and RB Knowshon Moreno back this week. Miami has run the ball very well this season already, gaining 141 yards at 5.2 ypr against teams that allow 118 yards at 4.4 ypr and should be able to exploit a soft Packers rush defense.

Having a few key players back on defense won’t hurt either with starting middle linebacker Koa Misi (ankle) and safety Reshad Jones (suspension) looking like they will play. In addition, having the extra time off, Miami installed their game plan for Green Bay during early practices last week which has allowed for plenty of time to digest their strategy and assignments. With the Packers coming off of two divisional victories and facing a non-conference foe in the heat in Miami (where it is supposed to be around 91 degrees at kickoff), I’ll take the Dolphins +3 -120 for 2-Stars up to +3 -130.
**CINCINNATI (-6.5) 28 Carolina 13
Sun Oct-12-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 264 Over/Under 44.5
Carolina got a little bit lucky in their 31-24 win last week against the Bears as they returned a strange fumbled punt play for a touchdown and benefitted from three Bears turnovers in the final seven minutes to pull out the SU and ATS win. Despite all of the issues that they have been dealing with on their offensive line and in their secondary as well as injuries that have decimated their RB group, amazingly the Panthers are alone in first place in the NFC South at 3-2. I expect a drop back to .500 after this week as they travel to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team that was embarrassed on national television on Sunday night in a 17-43 loss to the Patriots. The Bengals were in a tough spot in that game but in their prior three they made relatively easy work of the Ravens, Falcons and Titans. I expect them to bounce back in this game with a solid win at home where they are 10-1 SU and ATS since the beginning of last season (including the playoff loss), winning by an average score of 31-16. They have a great match-up in the passing game both offensively and defensively in this game. A Bengals passing offense that has averaged 8.8 yps against teams that allow 6.9 yps should exploit a Carolina pass defense that has been just about average while an average Panthers pass offense will face a Cincinnati pass defense that has allowed 5.5 yps to teams that typically gain 6.6 yps. In addition, the Panthers have been terrible defending the run, allowing 130 yards at 5.5 ypr and have all kinds of injury issues in their own offensive backfield where they have been only able to generate 75 rushing yards at 3.2 ypr. From a schematic standpoint, the Panthers have only averaged 14.5 points in two games against AFC North opponents that run the 3-4 defense so far this season, allowing five sacks and averaging just 54.5 yards rushing.

The Panthers are tied for second in the league with a +5 turnover differential while the Bengals are not far behind at +4 but have suffered from some negative fumble luck while the Panthers have not. The Bengals will likely miss AJ Green in this game but even without him, I expect the far better team in Cincinnati to bounce back in a good spot. My model, adjusting for the absence of Green, still favors Cincinnati in this game by about 16 points so we have quite a bit of line value on the Bengals according to my ratings. With the better, more motivated team looking to bounce back after an embarrassing loss and favorable match-ups going their way I’ll take the Bengals -6.5 for 2-Stars up to -7.
**San Francisco (-3 -130) 26 ST. LOUIS 15
Mon Oct-13-2014 at 05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 277 Over/Under 43.5
With back to back home wins against the Eagles and the Chiefs, San Francisco is right back in the mix in the NFC West with a 3-2 record. Facing the Rams this week in St. Louis in an important divisional game on Monday night in primetime, the 49ers should be focused to play well and have some match-up advantages that they should be able to exploit. San Francisco’s strong power running game should be able to pound the ball on a Rams defense that is allowing 154 yards at 5.3 ypr that last week let an Eagles struggling rush offense generate 146 rushing yards at 4.6 ypr. Meanwhile, the San Francisco defense should win in the trenches as well. The 49ers rush defense is allowing just 75 yards at 4.1 ypr to teams that typically gain 119 yards at 4.5 ypr and should be able to shut down a Rams attack that generates 4.3 ypr against teams that have allowed 4.5 ypr. St Louis quarterback Austin Davis has put up some good numbers but much of his production has been against some of the poorer pass defenses in the league in Tampa Bay (30th in the NFL in pass defense), Philadelphia (29th) and Dallas (18th). Davis has also had some costly turnovers including two fumbles last week, and threw a pick-six against both Minnesota and Dallas. He’ll face a far better defense this week as the 49ers have allowed just 284 yards per game at 5.1 yppl overall.

The Rams defense has really missed defensive end Chris Long as so far this season as St. Louis has only 1 sack. With Long out, opposing offenses are focusing on containing Robert Quinn and others haven’t been able to step up. While the Rams pass defense looks great in allowing a league low 190 yards per game, they have actually given up 7.1 yps against teams that gain 6.2 yps on average. In addition, teams simply haven’t thrown the ball much against the Rams. In fact, the Rams have the fewest pass attempts against in the league mainly because they haven’t been able to stop the run. That makes for a difficult match-up in this game against a 49es offense that can pound the ball but also has the ability to stretch the field with a number of playmakers in the receiver and tight end groups.

The 49ers qualify in 664-495-40 and 215-103-4 situations while the Rams do qualify in a couple of weaker situations. My adjusted points model favors San Francisco by about 8 points in this game and with the match-up advantages favoring the superior team, who should also be motivated playing in primetime in a divisional game, I’ll take the 49ers -3 -130 for 2-Stars up to -4.

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paramount sports..
lee sterling

25 jacksonville
20 miami
20 oakland

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red suit
vikes/lions over 43

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mti teasers 6pt
5-star seahawks-giants
3-star seahawks-pitt
3-star pitt-giants

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Sports Handicapper King


NFL:

Miami +2.5
Philadelphia -2.5

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Charlie

500*
pittsburgh over
jets
oakland

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Rainman

10* MIAMI
5* CHICAGO
3* Giants
3* Pittsburgh
Arizona
San Diego/Oakland Under

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Kelso
50 cinnci

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Dives Handicapping


Oakland Raiders +7

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Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Chicago Bears / Atlanta Falcons OVER 54½ (Bet Level 3) (Total Points Bet) (NFL Football) - Game Starts at 4:25 PM EST

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Real Swoop
Added
Raiders +7.5 (1*)
Cowboys +9 (2*)
Giants +2 (1*)

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DAVID GLISAN SPORTS

Sunday Night:

(275) NY Giants +1' over Philadelphia

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