10-15-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle Baseball

WEDNESDAY

Play Kansas City -105 over Baltimore (Top Play)
4:00 PM EST

Jason Vargas has won 15 of the last 25 home games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he has won 6 of the last 8 games coming off four or more team wins. Jason Vargas has an ERA of 1.94 vs. Baltimore over his career and he has an ERA of 3.82 in all starts this season.


Play San Francisco -105 over St. Louis (Top Play)
8:00 PM EST

Ryan Vogelsong has won 5 consecutive playoff games and he has won 14 of the last 21 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents. Ryan Vogelsong has won 8 of the last 11 games when pitching with seven or more days of rest and he has an ERA of 2.81 in home games this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

WEDNESDAY BASEBALL



Play Kansas City -105 over Baltimore---Top Play (Risk 10% of your Bankroll)


4:00 PM EST

Kansas City has won 55 of the last 88 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have won 19 of the last 27 games after having won eight or more of the last ten games. Kansas City has won 53 of the last 96 games after allowing one run or less in their last game and they have won 7 of the last 10 games vs. Baltimore.




Play San Francisco -105 over St. Louis---Top Play (Risk 10% of your Bankroll)


8:00 PM EST

San Francisco has won 19 of the last 26 games when playing on a Wednesday and they have won 18 of the last 27 games when playing in the month of October. San Francisco has won 44 of the last 70 games after having won two of the last three games and they have won 72 of the last 116 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.

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BeatYourBookie

WEDNESDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Kansas City -105 over Baltimore (MLB TOP PLAY)

Kansas City is 53-34 when playing in the 2nd half of the season
Kansas City is 18-7 when playing on a Wednesday



10* Play San Francisco -120 over St. Louis (MLB TOP PLAY)

San Francisco is 72-44 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
San Francisco is 53-37 when playing in the month of October

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime


MLB Baseball

1000* Play Kansas City -105 over Baltimore (TOP MLB PLAY)

Kansas City has won 20 of the last 29 games after having won twelve or more of the last fifteen games and they have won 18 of the last 25 games when playing on a Wednesday.



1000* Play San Francisco -105 over St. Louis (TOP MLB PLAY)

San Francisco has won 75 of the last 131 home games when the line posted is between -100 to -150 and they have won 95 of the last 163 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 7.5 runs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Cardinals -102
Royals -114

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob



Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.

***HOUSTON (-7) 31 Temple 15
Fri Oct-17-2014 at 06:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 312 Over/Under 51.5
Houston struggled offensively the first 5 games with John O’Korn at quarterback so coach Tony Levine decided to turn to wide receiver Greg Ward Jr last week. Ward was a change of pace quarterback for the Cougars last season and was an efficient 19 for 29 with no interceptions while averaging 8.6 yards per pass play and running for 202 yards on 41 runs. I speculated last week that Ward’s yards per pass play numbers would drop as a starting quarterback because when he was inserted last season opponents were playing him to run the ball, which made it easier to throw it. Ward has averaged only 5.0 yards on 50 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) but that’s a significant upgrade over O’Korn, who has averaged only 4.7 yppp despite facing teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average QB. Ward not only elevated the pass attack last week against a good Memphis defense but he ran for 109 yards as well. Ward also has thrown just 1 inception on 77 career pass attempts while O’Korn had thrown 8 picks this season on 172 passes. Aside from Ward’s running, Houston has a good stable of running backs that all average 6.0 ypr or higher and the Cougars average 6.5 yards per rushing play if you take out O’Korn’s bad rushing numbers. Houston’s offense has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season but they rate at +0.1 yppl with Ward at quarterback (the running component was based on Ward’s 5.7 yards per rushing play career average not his 6.8 yprp average this season, which was skewed by a 64 yard run last week) and the turnovers should drop too. Temple’s defense has been 0.5 yards per play worse than average in 4 games against FBS opponents (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yprp against an average team) and the math projects 448 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Cougars with Ward Jr. at quarterback.

Temple’s sub-par attack, averaging 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack, is not likely to keep up in this game against a very good Houston defense that’s yielded just 19.2 points per game and 4.4 yppl to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. The Owls are projected to gain just 290 total yards in this game and overall I favor Houston by 16 ½ points in this game. The adjustments for Ward at quarterback were about 4 ½ points so I would have favored Houston by 12 points without those adjustments. Temple seems better than they actually are because of a +9 turnover margin but Houston is projected to have a 0.7 fewer turnovers than Temple in this game now that the interception prone O’Korn has a headset on instead of a helmet. My math model gives Houston a very profitable 60.7% chance of covering at -7 points (based on the historical performance of my model) and would still be a 55.1% play at -9 ½ points and a profitable 53.4% play at -10. I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (up to -125 odds), for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 ½ points and for 1-Stars at -10 points.
***MASSACHUSETTS (-14) 44 Eastern Michigan 20
Sat Oct-18-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 334 Over/Under 0.0
Massachusetts proved once again that they’re good enough to score a lot of points against bad defensive teams, as the Minutemen won 41-17 at Kent State for their 3rd consecutive 40-plus point offensive performance. U Mass actually has scored 31 points or more in 5 of their 7 games with the exclusions being against Boston College and Penn State, and it’s likely that the Minutemen will put up 40 or more points on the scoreboard again this week against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense that’s allowed an average of 40.2 points on 520 total yards per game at 6.9 yards per play (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). I realize that the Eagles’ defensive scoring average is skewed by the 65 points they gave up to Florida and the 73 they allowed to Michigan State, but giving up 65 points to Florida is an indication that mediocre offensive teams can rack up a lot of points against the Eagles, who have allowed 6.7 yards per play or more in all but one game this season (and that includes giving up 6.9 yppl to FCS team Morgan State). U Mass hasn’t faced a defense this bad and my math model projects 547 total yards at 6.9 yppl and 42.5 points for U Mass in this game.

Eastern Michigan is coming off a rare win, as freshman quarterback Reginald Bell Jr. came off the bench to spark the win over Buffalo with 144 yards on 13 pass plays and 202 yards on 17 runs, which included a 72 yard touchdown. All indications are that Bell will get the start this week but I don’t expect he’ll put up numbers that good again. Bell played in 3 other games previously and totaled just 49 yards on 25 pass plays and 70 yards on 16 runs in those games. Overall, Bell’s passing numbers (5.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average quarterback) are actually 0.9 yppp better than they team average and his rushing numbers would 0.6 yards per rushing play to the Eagles’ attack. Overall, if I assume Bell is indeed a major upgrade despite the limited sample size, then the Eagles’ offense goes from 2.0 yards per play worse than average (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) to 1.1 yppl worse than average. Of course, there is certainly a reasonable chance that Bell is no better than the rest of the Eagles’ quarterbacks, but I prefer to assume his superior numbers (relative to the other Eagles’ quarterbacks) are real rather than variance. The U Mass defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average and the math projects 389 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Eagles in this game, which equates to 22 points when projected turnovers (favors EMU a bit) and special teams (favors U Mass) are factored in.

Overall the math favors Massachusetts by 20 ½ points and the Eagles’ upset win last week sets them up in a negative 9-48-1 ATS subset of a 24-82-1 ATS road dog letdown situation today. Eastern Michigan is also not used to winning and the Eagles have always had a habit of letting down after a rare victory. The Eagles are just 29% ATS in their spread history after a victory, including 2-15 ATS since 2007 and 0-7 ATS recently. That trend has held up through numerous coaches and the Eagles lost 0-65 in week 2 this season after beating Morgan State in their opener. U Mass has covered 5 of their last 6 and I like their chances here given the line value (even with Bell upgrading EMU’s offense by 4 points) and the strong situation against the Eagles. I’ll take Massachusetts in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -17 points.
**Syracuse (-4) 26 WAKE FOREST 13
Sat Oct-18-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 315 Over/Under 0.0
Wake Forest has one of the worst offenses I have ever seen from a team in a major conference, as the Demon Deacons have averaged only 213 yards and 3.4 yards per play this season against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average offensive team. Wake has averaged just 139 yards and 2.1 yppl against the 4 decent defensive teams that they’ve faced, which excludes the 5.2 yppl they averaged against FCS team Gardner Webb and the 5.2 yppl they average against a horrible Army defense. Syracuse is a better than average defensive team that has yielded just 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team and the good pass rush of the Orange (2.8 sacks per game) is going to be an issue for a horrible Wake Forest offensive line that has allowed an average of 7.0 sacks in 3 games against teams with a better than average defensive sacks average (7 to UL Monroe, 6 to Utah State, and 8 to Louisville). The Demon Deacons are projected to gain just 233 yards at 3.4 yppl in this game.

The Syracuse offense isn’t as good without the running of injured quarterback Terrel Hunt, who had 324 yards at 6.6 yards per rushing play, but freshman A.J. Long played pretty well off the bench last week in his collegiate debut against #1 Florida State, averaging a decent 6.2 yards per pass play against the Seminoles – although he also threw 2 interceptions. All indications are that the coaching staff was going to redshirt Long but now they are eager to get his talent on the field. I still project a drop of nearly 5 points in Syracuse offense with Long at quarterback instead of Hunt, but the Orange still have a good rushing attack that rates at 0.8 yards per rushing play better than average even without Hunt’s numbers included (and Long is considered to be a good runner, although he ran just 3 times last week for 20 yards) and I rate the pass attack at 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average until I get more data on Long. Overall, the Orange still have an attack that I rate as better than average and my model projects 416 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Cuse in this game against a solid Wake Forest defense that’s been 0.2 yppl better than average this season.

Syracuse should have nearly a 200 yard advantage in total yards but Wake Forest does have very good special team, which has been an issue for Syracuse. Still, my model projects the Orange to win by 10.3 points and Syracuse applies to a very good 83-29-3 ATS statistical matchup indicator that enhances their chances of covering. I’ll take Syracuse in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 ½ points or less and for 1-Star at -7.
*Miami-Ohio (+12 ½) 27 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 32
Sat Oct-18-2014 at 02:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 317 Over/Under 0.0
This game opened up at +14 ½ points but moved to +13 and then down to 12 ½ early on Monday. I was hoping to see the line move back up but there is still value in playing against Northern Illinois for a second straight week as a double-digit favorite. Last week the Huskies lost 17-34 as a 10 point home favorite to Central Michigan and my math model gives Miami-Ohio a profitable 56% chance of covering despite the line move below 14 points. Miami is just 1-6 straight up but the Redhawks have been pretty competitive in most of their losses and continue to play hard for coach Chuck Martin in his first year at the helm. Martin’s team is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog and the Redhawks’ pass heavy offense (45.6 pass plays per game) matches up well against a Northern Illinois defense that is good defending the run but horrible defending the pass, allowing 7.5 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.6 yppp against an average defensive team. So, while Northern Illinois’ defense is 0.6 yards per play worse than average overall, they are 1.3 yppl worse than average against a team with a run-pass ratio as extreme towards the pass as Miami’s offense is. That’s where a lot of the line value is on this game – in the match up. Miami’s offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average overall but that positive match up leads to a projection of 437 yards at 5.8 yppl against a Huskies’ stop unit whose very good run defense doesn’t matter that much in this game.

The Northern Illinois offense rates as just average with 5.7 yards per play coming against FBS teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack but Miami’s defense has been surprisingly solid this season, rating at just 0.2 yppl worse than average (their 5.9 yppl allowed was against teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team. The math projects 454 yards at 6.0 yppl for Northern Illinois in this game, which is not significantly more than what is projected for Miami. The Huskies do have an edge some intangible stats, including special teams, but overall this looks like it should be a competitive game and the fact that Northern Illinois lost last week as a big favorite doesn’t hurt, as the Huskies apply to a 21-58-1 ATS situation that plays against home favorites that lost as a home favorite of more than 7 points the previous week. I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 1-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 2-Stars if the line goes back up to +13 or more.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Kansas City Royals -120

Giants / Cardinals Over 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

Mlb

3* Over-7.5 KC/Baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner:

1000* MLB Over 7 Giants/Cardinals
100* MLB Royals -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

NHL

Chicago Blackhawks ML

[golden contender]

GC: MLB PLAY

Hump day MLB Playoff Game of the Year takes center stage today from a huge system from the All time MLB Historical database and this system has lost just once. MLB is on a 10-3 run. The N.L.C.S Play is below.

The N.L.C.S Power system play is on the St. Louis Cardinals. Game 965 at 8:05 eastern. St. Louis will look to even things up after allowing 4 runs in the first battling back to tie and losing in extra innings 5-4. The Cardinals are 5-1 as a road dog off a 1 run road loss. Shelby Miller makes the start and he is 2-0 in October decisions and has beaten the Giants in his only 2 starts against them, allowing just 2 runs in 12 innings. B. Vogelsong goes for the Giants and he is 0-2 his last 2 at home vs the Cardinals allowing 11 runs in 19 innings his last vs them overall. This in evenly matched series and may go the distance. Look for the Cardinals to tie it up. Get on early as the MLB Playoff Game of the Year goes in afternoon action with a system that has lost once in MLB Playoff History and a 100% Angle. In N.L.C.S Action take the Cardinals. GC

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Derek Hayes

1* Royals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike point sports

nhl

7* Blackhawks-1.5+100

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Topshelfpicks

Carson K

Royals

Let me start off by saying, I took KC to win this Series (I also have SF). Vargas is the last guy i would want to put my money on today. His last start he gave up 2 HRS. The month of Sept. he was horrible, 1-3 with a 6.57era. If this was a Regular season game and i could get Balt as a DOG, WOW!!! ......................But the more i think about it, it's not the Regular season, it's the Post Season. And if Vagas is any type of competitor he would love to make up for that bad month. What better way for Jason to put that behind him and get the win to put KC in the World Series. Even in that game were he gave up 2 HRs, he did go 6 innings and only gave up 3 hits, so maybe it wasn't that bad.

Giants

I'm not over thinking this one. BIG STAGE, some people can handle it & some people can't. I know from past history what i will get from Ryan Vogelsong in the Playoffs. That's all I need to know. Get it now if you can, cause i believe this is going up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VegasButcher

Kansas City Royals -116

Watching the Royals meticulously go about their business yesterday was a real pleasure. Even when they were down 1 run, you had this feeling watching the game that KC won’t lose. They were confident, composed, played terrific defense, made bold moves when a run was needed (subbing out Aoki for Dyson in the 6th), and most importantly they executed. Dyson came across to score a run (single moved him to 3rd and then a sac-fly by Butler) and then it was pretty much automatic after that, with KC’s bullpen shutting the doors down in 7th, 8th, and 9th (Frasor also had a 1-2-3 inning in the 6th as well). Dyson was right when he politely answered a question on whether he expects this series to go back to Baltimore: “No sir, I don’t. And I don’t think they think that, either”. In some sports like football and basketball, ‘bulletin board’ material could be used to entice players to give a little extra effort and work better as a team towards a common goal of winning a ball game. In baseball, that doesn’t really apply. Baseball is an individual sport for the most part, and ‘bulletin board’ material could actually throw opposing players off their game mentally. In any case, I don’t see this series going back to Baltimore nor do I see it going to game 5 even. Vargas’ strongest pitch is his ‘changeup’, a pitch that Baltimore really struggles against (similar to why I felt Guthrie would throw a good game yesterday). On the other side you have Miguel Gonzalez, my 154th ranked pitcher out of 171. Gonzalez has a 3.2 ERA on the year but his advanced stats tell a different story. His 4.8 FIP is 159th in the league, and his -1.6 E-F is the worst out of all the starters. A low .274 BABIP and a ridiculously high 86% strand-rate (average is around 70%) have helped his ERA be lower than it should be. Last time Gonzalez pitched in KC was in 2013, and he allowed 8 hits and 6 ER’s in 4.2 innings while striking out zero batters. Yesterday I felt Chen will have a strong game because he was excellent against left-handed hitters this season (3.5 FIP on the year), and most of KC’s key hitters are lefty. Well, Gonzalez has a 5.0 FIP against lefties on the season, ranking 156th in the league. These two pitchers also have a strong Home/Away split, as Vargas has a 3.7/3.8 FIP/xFIP at home while Gonzalez has a 4.7/4.4 mark on the road. In addition, just like I’ve mentioned yesterday, Kauffman Field is NOT HR-friendly. Orioles need to string hits together as their HR-power isn’t as much of a factor here as it is at home. Bottom line is that Royals are a more confident team and honestly, they’re a ‘better’ team right now. Plus they have a starting pitcher advantage on the mound today. I believe they have a great shot to close this one out.

San Francisco Giants -114

Shelby Miller had a terrific September, where he registered a 1.5 ERA with a 26 K to 5 BB ratio as the Cards went 4-1 in those starts. What changed was that he scrapped his ineffective ‘cutter’, and just increased the usage of his fastball and his curve, which was a much more effective pitch down the stretch for him. Throwing the fastball 75% of the time is dangerous though as good hitters can sit on the pitch. In the 2nd half of the year, Giants ranked 6th offensively against that pitch, and they were 7th in the majors against the ‘curveball’. Miller’s ERA this year came in at 3.8 but part of that is due to a low .254 BABIP (his GB-rate is only 40%) and an inflated 77% strand-rate. His 4.5/4.5/4.6 FxS are much higher and his -0.8 E-F ranks 12th out of all the starters. Giants are a type of an offense that could cause Miller trouble and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets hit hard tonight.

On the other side we have Vogelsong, who had a terrible September but was phenomenal at home against Washington in his lone playoff start so far: 5.2 inn / 2 hits / 1 ER / 4 K and 2 BB. Actually in the last 3 years, Vogelsong has been phenomenal in the playoffs: 30.1 innings, 18 hits allowed, ZERO HR’s, 4 ER’s (1.2 ERA) with 25K and 12 BB. Speaking of September, 3 of his 5 starts were on the road. In the two home starts, Vogelsong went 12 innings allowd 8 hits and 3 ER’s for a 2.3 ERA. This is important because at home this year he’s had a 3.1 ERA with a .228 BA against while a 5.1 mark on the road with a .283 BA against. Advanced stats confirm this statistically significant H/A split: 2.5 FIP at home with a 21% K-rate, 3.7 K/BB, and a miniscule 0.18 HR/9 compared to 5.4 FIP on the road with a 17.5% K-rate, 1.9 K/BB, and 1.7 HR/9. That’s a huge difference and of course that mostly has to do with the HR’s allowed at home vs on the road. I spoke yesterday about Cardinals’ inability to generate much power against right-handers, and playing in a pitcher’s park won’t help that. Vogelsong actually faced St Louis twice this year, once on the road and once at home. On the road his SIERA was 4.5 with a 4.3 xFIP. At home though, he had a 1.4 SIERA and 1.45 xFIP, his BEST individual marks against an opponent all season long. Final critical factor in Vogelsong’s favor is his reverse-platoon split this season. He’s right-handed but he’s been much more effective against lefties (3.5 FIP #66) than right-handers (4.2 FIP #126). With Molina injured, St Louis is using a left-handed catcher in Pierzynski. (Side note: it doesn’t really matter what Pierzynski’s handedness is, as he’s a terrible hitter at this point of his career). That makes 5 lefties in their lineup (Carpenter, Jay, Adams, Wong, and Pierzynski), and most of these hitters have been crucial in getting the Cards to this point. If Vogelsong can contain these guys, he should have a very good start.

St Louis is now 4-10 in their last 14 road starts while San Fran is 7-1 in their last 8 at home. And today we have a matchup of two starters who have a huge Home/Away split differential. I like the home team to get the job done.