10-16-14

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NCAAF

Thursday's games

Underdogs covered six of last seven Va Tech-Pitt games, winning four of last five SU; Hokies lost last three visits here, by 18-3-31 points, as Pitt won four of last five series games. Tech already won at Ohio State and North Carolina; win at OSU was its first cover in last seven tries as road underdog. Pitt lost last three games, including a horrible loss to Akron at home; they're 0-2 as home favorites this year, 5-4 under Chryst. ACC home favorites are 6-8 vs spread in conference play.

Home side won four of last five Utah-Oregon State games; Utes lost last two visits here 21-7/24-7- they got upset 51-48 at home by Beavers LY. Utah has road wins at Michigan/UCLA; they've failed to cover last four tries as road favorites. OSU is 2-4 in last six tries as home dog; they gave up 66 points in splitting last two games (won 36-31 at Colorado)- they beat San Diego State in only I-A home game. Underdogs are 12-4 vs spread in Pac-12 conference games, 4-2 at home.

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NFL

Week 7

Jets (1-5) @ Patriots (4-2)—Pats won five of last six series games, with three of last four decided by exactly 3 points; Jets lost five of last six visits here, with only win in ’10 playoffs- they lost last three visits here by 9-3-3 points. Patriots scored 80 points in last two games since 41-14 loss to Chiefs, scoring seven TD’s on 23 drives- they’ve been +3 or better in three of four wins, lost field position by 8-19 yards. Jets have only three takeaways for season, are -9 in turnovers. Pats are 7-5 in last 12 games as divisional home favorite; they’re 0-1 as home faves this year. Jets are 8-11-1 in last 20 games as road underdog. Both teams suffered key injuries Sunday; Milliner for Jets, Mayo/Ridley for NE- they’re all out for year. Keep in mind that over is now 15-4 in primetime games this season.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Sharks won their first three games, allowing five goals. Islanders also won their first three games, scoring 15 goals.
-- Penguins won their first two games, scoring 11 goals.
-- New Jersey won first three games, allowing six goals.
-- Ottawa won its last two games, allowing two goals.
-- Canadiens won three of their first four games.
-- Los Angeles won last two games, outscoring foes 10-2.

Cold teams
-- Dallas Stars lost two of first three games, scoring seven goals.
-- Washington lost two of its first three games.
-- Rangers lost their last three games, allowing 17 goals. Carolina lost first three games, allowing 13 goals.
-- Colorado lost three of its first four games.
-- Bruins lost three of their last four games.
-- Blues split their first two games, both at home.

Series records
-- Islanders lost six of last seven games with San Jose.
-- Penguins won seven of last nine games with Dallas.
-- Devils won eight of last ten games against Washington.
-- Rangers won 11 of their last 12 games with Carolina.
-- Senators lost their last seven games with Ottawa.
-- Canadiens are 10-4 in last 14 games vs Boston; they beat Bruins in 7 games in LY's playoffs.
-- Kings won six of their last seven games with St Louis.

Totals
-- Six of last seven San Jose-Islander games stayed under total.
-- Four of last six Dallas-Pittsburgh games went over.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in last 12 New Jersey-Washington games.
-- Over is 7-2-3 in last twelve Carolina-Ranger games.
-- Four of last five Colorado-Ottawa games went over total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Boston games this season.
-- Under is 4-1-4 in last nine St Louis-LA games.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Royals on Wednesday and likes the Cardinals on Thursday.

The deficit is 947 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo hits the double!

The Royals finished off the Orioles Wednesday night, and the Giants performed to expectation against the Cards, which enabled Hondo to remove a hefty chunk from the deficit, which plunged to 1,140 hannahs.

Thursday night: Mr. Aitch will hold his nose with one hand and put 10 units on Belicheat and the Pats with the other.

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Canadians +125

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Cappers Access

Patriots -9.5
Virginia tech +1.5
Oregon St +3

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Thursday NCAAF Pittsburgh Panthers -1

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EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Today

I'm not playing anything on Wednesday or the Thurday night NFL game between the Jets and the Patriots. My Thursday night college football selection in posted below along with three big plays for Saturday. I sent out the Notre Dame play before the game was taken off the board. Best of luck.

-EZ

THURSDAY

3* (306) Pittsburgh Panthers -1.5

Virginia Tech's starting quarterback Michael Brewer has already thrown eleven interceptions and just can't be trusted on the road. Pitt has some issues with their sophomore quarterback as well but the do have a ball hawking defense and an edge at running back with James Conner. Conner is a big 250 pound bruising running back that has already rushed for over 800 yards on the season. The Panthers should be able to control the clock with the running game and force a turnover or two to pick up the home win. Play on Pittsburgh.


SATURDAY

5* (340) Arkansas Razorbacks +4

Georgia is coming off of a huge shutout win over Missouri last week in their first game without their suspended star running back Todd Gurley. The players dedicated the game to Gurley and as teams often do in their first game without their star they rose to the occasion in a big way. Freshmen running back Nick Chubb rushed for 143 yards and the Bulldogs defense forced Missouri into five turnovers. Now the Bulldogs must take to the road for the second straight week as a more then a field goal favorite against an ever improving Arkansas team. The Hogs are 0-3 in SEC play, but in their last two games lost in overtime against A&M and by one point to Alabama. The Arkansas defense held ‘Bama to just ten first downs. Hogs quarterback Brandon Allen is also playing well to compliment


5* (400) Northwestern Wildcats +7

This is a big revenge game for Northwestern who lost to these Huskers last season in Nebraska on a Hail Mary. If the Wildcat defense can do a decent job on Husker running back Ameer Abdullah, which I expect them to do, Northwestern will have a chance at the upset. Nebraska will want to try to establish the run, but their offensive line is still an area of concern. Last week the Wildcat defense held Minnesota running back David Cobb to under 100 yards for the game. Coming into that game Cobb was averaging over 144 yards per game and I expect Northwestern's defense to have another strong effort in this game. I like Northwestern to get it done in their homecoming game. Take the points.


5* (403) Notre Dame Fighting Irish +13.5

The Irish looked past an offensively talented North Carolina team last week with this game against #1 ranked Florida State on tap. I took the generous points last week with the Tar Heels as I faded the Irish in the look ahead spot, but I will back Notre Dame in this game. The Irish have been money in these games as they are 10-4 in their last fourteen games against top ten teams including 4-0 against the spread as a visiting dog since 2012. There are more Jameis Winston distractions this week as FSU investigates his autograph signings so I wanted to jump on this early just in case he sits for this game. Even with Winston in the game, the Irish offense can score enough points to win this game straight up. The FSU defense is allowing 21 points and 359 yards per game and this will be the best offense that they have faced all year. Take the points.

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Today's NHL Picks

Colorado at Ottawa

The Avalanche head to Ottawa tonight and come into the contest with a 7-0 record in their last 7 games versus the Senators. Colorado is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Avalanche favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-105). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: San Jose at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 13.509; NY Islanders 12.013 Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-120); Under

Game 3-4: Dallas at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.504; Pittsburgh 12.997 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-170); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-170); Under

Game 5-6: New Jersey at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.896; Washington 11.422 Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-125); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+105); Under

Game 7-8: Carolina at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.202; NY Rangers 13.411 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 9-10: Colorado at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.621; Ottawa 11.022 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-105); Over

Game 11-12: Boston at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.735; Montreal 13.168 Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-120); 5 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-120); Under

Game 13-14: St. Louis at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.298; Los Angeles 12.786 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-130); Under

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Victor King Creole:

I have this as a 3* Play:

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 44 or less points

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Paul Leiner:

2000* CFB Virginia Tech +2
100* NFL Over 44.5 Jets/Patriots
50* CFB Utah -2.5

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Bio Sports Picks:

3u Jets/Patriots OVER 44

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King Creole | NFL Total Thu, 10/16/14 - 8:25 PM
double-dime bet 303 NYJ / 304 NEP OVER 44.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 44 or less points

We’re well aware that there could be bad weather in the Thursday night game between the PATRIOTS and JETS. In fact, the chance of rain is 100%… with possible thunderstorms as well. Winds won’t be a factor however, with a forecast of just 5-6 mile per hour. The OU line in this game has been adjusted as a result of that weather forecast…. as it opened at 47 points, and has gone down as low as 44 points. So we’ll look to STILL play on this OVER… and sharp Totals Players will get on board when the line ‘bottoms out’. It might just be at the current number of 44.5 to 45 points, given there public’s tendency to slam Overs on game day. So for now, our optimum OU line in this one is 44.5 or less points. And we’re PLAYIN it… rain or shine.

THURSDAY’s have been a GREAT Day of the Week for NFL games to be significantly higher-scoring than anticipated. In the last four weeks, Thursday games have seen 61 pts… 52 pts… 59 pts… and 70 pts. Until an opposite OU pattern starts to show, we’re compelled to still go with the flow. Especially knowing that:

*THURSDAY games in the NFL with an OU line of 52 < points have gone 16-2 O/U In the last three seasons in Game Five ore greater…
*THURSDAY big home favorites of -7 > pts (PATRIOTS) have gone 5-0 O/U in the last two seasons in the OU line range of 44 to 56 points…
*THURSDAY games with an OU line of < 49 points when BOTH teams come into the game off an ‘Over' in their last game (PATS + JETS).
*THURSDAY teams playing the first of 3 STRAIGHT home games (PATRIOTS) have gone 8-1 O/U...

At last look, the host Patriots were laying a whopping 9.5 to 10 points in this game… 6-0 /U last 3 years: All DIVISION home favorites of -9 > pts playing off a SUATS win (NEW ENG) when the OU line is < 48 points.

New England’s offense has really picked up their game as of late. The Patriots averaged only 20.0 ppg in their first four games. But in their last two, they’ve scored 43 and 37 points… 7-0 O/U since 2009: All GAME 14 or less home favorites of > 3 points AFTER scoring 37 > points in EACH of their last two games (NEW ENG).

On the flip side, the Jets’ defense hasn’t scared anyone. After starting the season by allowing 14 points to the Oakland Raiders, the Jets have allowed 31… 27… 24… 31… and 31 points in their last five games…. 7-1 O/U last 2 years: All road teams who allowed 31 > points in EACH of their last two games (NEW YORK).

Last week, the Jets lost at home to Denver by a score of 31 to 17… 10-2 O/U last 5 years: All division road teams off a SU non-division home loss of 14 > points that also went Over the Total (NEW YORK).

So the Jets are on a 5-game losing streak…. 9-1 O/U last 2+ seasons: All Game 12 or less road underdogs off 5 or more SU losses in a row (JETS).

10-1 O/U since 1991: All GAME 10 or less division road underdogs of < 13 points off BB SU losses of 14 > pts EACH (JETS) versus any opponent off a SU win (PATS).

Adding fuel to the fire is the series history between these two teams. The last NINE meetings between the JETS and PATRIOTS have gone 8-1 O/U… with an averaged combined point total of 49.6…

7-1 O/U last 4 years: All AFC EAST division games in which the host is favored by 7 > pts (PATS) and the OU line is > 43 points...

Pick Made: Oct 15 2014 10:03AM PST

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Prediction Machine

Utah / Oregon St Over 52.5 (56.9%)
Jets / Patriots Under 46.5 (54%)