10-17-14

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Dr. Bob

(312) ***HOUSTON (-7) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -9.5, 1-Star at -10.


***HOUSTON (-7) 31 Temple 15
Houston struggled offensively the first 5 games with John O’Korn at quarterback so coach Tony Levine decided to turn to wide receiver Greg Ward Jr last week. Ward was a change of pace quarterback for the Cougars last season and was an efficient 19 for 29 with no interceptions while averaging 8.6 yards per pass play and running for 202 yards on 41 runs. I speculated last week that Ward’s yards per pass play numbers would drop as a starting quarterback because when he was inserted last season opponents were playing him to run the ball, which made it easier to throw it. Ward has averaged only 5.0 yards on 50 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) but that’s a significant upgrade over O’Korn, who has averaged only 4.7 yppp despite facing teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average QB. Ward not only elevated the pass attack last week against a good Memphis defense but he ran for 109 yards as well. Ward also has thrown just 1 inception on 77 career pass attempts while O’Korn had thrown 8 picks this season on 172 passes. Aside from Ward’s running, Houston has a good stable of running backs that all average 6.0 ypr or higher and the Cougars average 6.5 yards per rushing play if you take out O’Korn’s bad rushing numbers. Houston’s offense has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season but they rate at +0.1 yppl with Ward at quarterback (the running component was based on Ward’s 5.7 yards per rushing play career average not his 6.8 yprp average this season, which was skewed by a 64 yard run last week) and the turnovers should drop too. Temple’s defense has been 0.5 yards per play worse than average in 4 games against FBS opponents (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yprp against an average team) and the math projects 448 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Cougars with Ward Jr. at quarterback.

Temple’s sub-par attack, averaging 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack, is not likely to keep up in this game against a very good Houston defense that’s yielded just 19.2 points per game and 4.4 yppl to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. The Owls are projected to gain just 290 total yards in this game and overall I favor Houston by 16 ½ points in this game. The adjustments for Ward at quarterback were about 4 ½ points so I would have favored Houston by 12 points without those adjustments. Temple seems better than they actually are because of a +9 turnover margin but Houston is projected to have a 0.7 fewer turnovers than Temple in this game now that the interception prone O’Korn has a headset on instead of a helmet. My math model gives Houston a very profitable 60.7% chance of covering at -7 points (based on the historical performance of my model) and would still be a 55.1% play at -9 ½ points and a profitable 53.4% play at -10. I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (up to -125 odds), for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 ½ points and for 1-Stars at -10 points.

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Today's CFL Picks

Ottawa at Hamilton

The Tiger-Cats host Ottawa on Friday night and come into the contest with an 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 Friday games. Hamilton is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-11 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (10/15)

Game 491-492: Ottawa at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 104.858; Hamilton 119.924 Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 15; 41 Vegas Line: Hamilton by 11 1/2; 45 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-11 1/2); Under

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BEN BURNS

Friday FEAST! Houston

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Game of the Day: Temple at Houston

Temple Owls at Houston Cougars (-7.5, 51)

The American Athletic Conference's top two defenses will meet in a primetime clash Friday when Temple visits Houston. The host Cougars lead the AAC in total defense while the Owls lead the league - and are ranked fourth nationally - in scoring defense. The Owls have also turned 17 turnovers into a national-best 79 points.

Houston, which has 19 takeaways this season and at least one in 29 straight games, must overcome significant changes on both sides of the ball. Receiver-turned-quarterback Greg Ward Jr. will make his second start at the position after replacing John O'Korn, and the Cougars lost second-leading receiver Daniel Spencer to a knee injury last week in practice. The Houston defense, which is allowing 322.7 yards and 19.2 points, lost junior cornerback Lee Hightower (leg) and senior linebacker Derrick Mathews (knee) to season-ending injuries in last week's win at Memphis.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE: The Cougars opened as 6-point home favorites and have been bet up to -7.5. The total opened at 48.5 and has been bet up all the way to 51.

INJURY REPORT: Houston - DB Lee Hightower (out for season, leg), LB Derrick Mathews (out for season, knee). Temple - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a great night for football at TDECU Stadium with temperatures in the mid 70s and a six mile per hour wind blowing from the south.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Temple is 4-1 on the season, but they've played an extremely weak schedule. The Owls offense has scored 24 points or more in every game, but again, they've played weak competition. Houston is off an unexpected 28-24 win at Memphis last Saturday night as 7.5-point underdogs. The Cougars won that game despite turning the ball over 3 times; they were aided by 5 Memphis turnovers. Houston’s offense should have little trouble moving the ball on Temple, but it is risky to lay 7.5 points with a mediocre team." - Covers Expert Steve Merril



ABOUT TEMPLE (4-1, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U): The Owls, who allow 14.4 points, lead the nation in red-zone defense by allowing just six scores (four touchdowns, two field goals) in 12 trips. Jalen Fitzpatrick has emerged as a consistent target for P.J. Walker (97-of-157 for 1,099 yards and 9 TDs) and leads Temple with 24 catches for 395 yards and a touchdown in each game. Jahad Thomas rushed for 152 yards last week against Tulsa to climb atop Temple's trio of running backs, leading Jamie Gilmore (187 yards, one TD) and Kenneth Harper (113 yards, two TDs) with 258 yards.

ABOUT HOUSTON (3-3, 3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U): Ward, who made eight appearances last year as the backup quarterback before moving to receiver, gave the Cougars' offense a spark last week and has two rushing touchdowns and one passing on the season. The backfield duo of Kenneth Farrow and Ryan Jackson have combined for 648 rushing yards and six scores while Deontay Greenberry leads the Cougars with 25 catches for 395 yards and two scores. Elandon Roberts will start in place of Mathews while a rotation of players will fill Hightower's role in the secondary.

TRENDS:

* Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.
* Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Temple's last five games on fieldturf.
* Under is 4-0 in Houston's last four home games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Almost 59 percent of wagers are backing the road underdogs Temple at +7.5-points.

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DAVID GLISAN SPORTS

(51) Calgary +150
(55) Detroit +110
(59/60) Vancouver/Edmonton Over 5.5 (-105)

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marc lawrence phone plays

TEMPLE

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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | MARSHALL at FLA INTERNATIONAL
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (MARSHALL) dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

CFB | CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (CLEMSON) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season
86-56 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.6% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Fresno State at Boise State

The Bulldogs head to Boise State tonight to face a Broncos team that is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 games versus Fresno State. Boise State is the pick (-17) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 20 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-17). Here are all of this week's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (10/15)

Game 309-310: Fresno State at Boise State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 74.940; Boise State 95.399 Dunkel Line: Boise State by 20 1/2; 66 Vegas Line: Boise State by 17; 61 Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-17); Over

Game 311-312: Temple at Houston (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Temple 89.927; Houston 94.568 Dunkel Line: Houston by 4 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: Temple (+7 1/2); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

Detroit at Toronto

The Red Wings head to Toronto tonight and come into the contest with an 11-2 record in their last 13 Friday games. Detroit is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Calgary at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.221; Columbus 11.342 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-165); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+145); Under

Game 53-54: Florida at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.512; Buffalo 10.092 Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-110); 5 Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Over

Game 55-56: Detroit at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.569; Toronto 11.126 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-125); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Over

Game 57-58: Nashville at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.809; Winnipeg 11.712 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-125); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+105); Under

Game 59-60: Vancouver at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.975; Edmonton 9.512 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-140); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-140); Over

Game 61-62: Minnesota at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 13.210; Anaheim 12.339 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Under

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Cappers Access

Boise St -17
Temple +7.5

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Friday

Canucks -145

Hamilton -11

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Fri Anaheim -150

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Hondo

Hondo cashed with the Giants in his NLCS investment Thursday night but gave it back with the Patriots so the deficit held steady at 1,140 carrs.

Friday night: Mr. Aitch is totally overwhelmed by the Boise State-Fresno State matchup. As a result he will put 10 units on the total to go over 63¹/₂.

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Paul Leiner:

2000* CFB Temple +7.5
100* CFB Fresno State +17