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King Creole | NFL Total Sun, 10/19/14 - 4:25 PM
triple-dime bet 473 ARI / 474 OAK OVER 44.5 Hilton
Analysis:
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
This non-conference game opened with a line of 44 points. As of Friday, it has risen to 44.5. get your play in as soon as possible. With SIX of these AFC vs NFC games on the Week Seven schedule, this appears to us to have the best OVER potential of the bunch. And sharp Totals Players are already aware of the great high-scoring results in these non-conference games as of late. Last year, non-conference games went OVER at a 75% clip. The numbers are not so high this year (at 15-11 O/U). But in the last four weeks, the numbers are starting to climb back up again (10-5 O/U). This game will feature two teams who have been putting up alarming defensive numbers as of late. Oakland comes in with the league’s 21st ranked defense (377 ypg allowed)… and #26 scoring defense (allowing 27 ppg). They allowed 432 yards in last week’s 31-28 loss to San Diego (OVER cashed by +15 points). And before that, they allowed 435 yards to the Dolphins (a 38-14 loss that went OVER by +11 points). Passing yards allowed in those two losses: 264 and 292 yards. For the road favorite Cardinals, they came into the year with a defense that allowed only 317 YPG in 2013 and only 20 ppg. But in 2014, Arizona comes in with the 25th ranked defense, allowing 385 YPG. And that includes DEAD LAST in passing defense (allowing a whopping 309 passing YPG). The Cardinals have allowed 407 and 568 yards on D in their last two games, both of which went coincidently OVER the Total. It all points to a passing ‘blitzkrieg’ between Carson Palmer and Derek Carr.
19-3 O/U last three years: All AFC home underdogs (OAK) versus a NFC opponent (ARZ) when the OU line is < 47 points. In the line range of > 41 pts and < 41 pts, these non-conference games have gone an almost-perfect 13-1 O/U.
Yes, Oakland is one of the remaining two WINLESS teams this season… 8-1 O/U last two years: All GAME Five or greater WINLESS underdogs (RAIDERS) vs an opponent off a SU win (CARDINALS).
Both of these teams scored 28 or more points last week… 8-1 O/U last 3 years: All non-division home underdogs when BOTH teams (RAIDERS / CARDINALS) scored 28 > points in their last game.
As mentioned above, both of these teams went OVER the Total in each of their last two games… 10-1-1 O/U since 2002: All GAME SIX or greater non-division home underdogs of < 7 pts off BB ‘Overs’ (OAK) vs an opponent also off BB ‘Overs’ (ARZ)… when the OU Line is 46 < points.
How about OU tendencies between these two divisions?… 14-2 O/U since 2000: All NFC WEST division road teams (CARDS) vs an AFC WEST division opponent (RAIDERS) when the OU line is in the range of < 43 and < 49 points.
Arizona comes in with a 4-1 SU record (.800) and is in first place in the NFC West. Oakland comes in with a 0-5 SU record (.000)… 6-0 O/U last 3 years: All .666 > non-division road favorites of 6 < pts (ARZ) versus a .250 < opponent (OAK) when the OU line is 47 < points.
Last week, Oakland covered the spread against San Diego… but did not win the game.9-0 O/U since 2008: All NFL home teams off a SU division home loss BUT an ATS win (RAIDERS)… when the OU line is 46 < points.
GAME SIX home underdogs of 3 > pts (RAIDERS) have gone a PERFECT 8-0 O/U in the last four seasons when the OU line is 49 or less points.
Norm Hitzges
NFL
DOUBLE PLAY: Dallas -6 1/2 NY Giants
SINGLE PLAYS
Baltimore -7 Atlanta
Jacksonville +5 1/2 Cleveland
Washington -4 Tennessee
Carolina +7 Green Bay
Miami +3 Chicago
Buffalo -5 1/2 Minnesota
Kansas City +4 San Diego
Pittsburgh -3 Houston
Calvin Johnson should miss again today and Reggie Bush has been hampered with injury. There is no mistake about it that we can clearly see Detroit just is not the same team when Johnson is hurt. New Orleans has not been a good road team, but they are playing in perfect conditions and I just feel they have too much offense to lose this game. Detroit can’t run the football and their passing game is now predictable. Look for a desperate Drew Brees to get a big road win for his team today. Take the Saints.
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